Fantasy Baseball Advice

Pineda They Come, Pineda They Fall

April 26, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball 591 Comments →

The Yankees got bested by the team that gave Adam Jones away in a chump trade.  I mean, yikes with a side of damn.  I could even see adding seven a’s into that damn for good measure.  Michael Pineda is done for the year with a torn labrum, which only sounds like an injury that a female gymnast would get.  Mariners threw him for 340 innings in 2011 and then traded him to the Yankees for their best prospect.  Hey, Yankees, say hello to your mother for me!  Pineda sounds like he’s done for the year.  This is good for teams that drafted him, but had an “Only one Pineda per team” clause.  For all other teams that drafted him this isn’t good news.  Drop him like a hot Pineda.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ryan Zimmerman – He’s gonna try to hit on Thursday.  I kinda hope it goes badly, and I own him.  Here’s the scenario I see happening if it goes well:  He returns on Friday, reinjures himself and then really needs 15 days from Saturday.  At least if his hitting session goes poorly, the Nats can backdate his DL stint.  Yes, I’m hopeful for a DL stint.  Yes, I’m Googling his address so I can have a “word” with him.

Jim Johnson – Headed for more tests as the doctors try to figure out what’s wrong with him.  “His peripherals look terrible, but he has so many saves.  Hey, why are we looking at box scores on an X-ray light box?”  That was the doctors after the first round of tests.  Pedro Strop is the pick up for the time being.  Hopefully, Strop isn’t short for closetastrophe.

Shin-Soo Choo – Sat on the bench last night as Shin-Soo Healthy, Hamstring-Soo Not.

Ike Davis – Dropped to 7th in the order, which is terrible for his value.  This was only surprising to me because, no matter how bad Davis has been, for the life of me I couldn’t think of six hitters better than Davis in the Mets lineup.  Hairston?  Tejada?  Really, Seth Myers?

Lorenzo Cain – Had a setback with his groin.  Pain…Sugar!  Sounds like he’s not coming back for at least another week.

Sergio Santos – Out for at least 4 weeks.  Could easily lose Santos until July.  That’s just me being real with you.  See, the truth is, everyone wants to know how many saves Cordero is gonna get or what closers I’m still cool with.  Cordero could get more saves than Santos this year.  If Cordero’s unowned in your league, then your league’s abandoned.  Makes me wonder why you’re reading this, but love your dedication.

Carl Crawford – Headed to Dr. Freeze with a sore elbow.  Looks like Crawford found a new joint to stink up.  Anyone know if Carl has to be with me if I go to City Hall and have his last name changed to Crawful?  No word on how long he’s going to be out, but I’m sure Dr. Freeze will find something to sideline him at least two months.  We shall see.  Or not.  Your choice.

Pedro Alvarez – 3-for-8, 2 RBIs, 2 runs as he hit two homers and a double in the doubleheader.  I told you 18 months ago that he was gonna break out!  Excuse me if I’m just too cutting edge for you.

Aubrey Huff – To the DL with an anxiety disorder.  At least someone is feeling guilty about taking Brandon Belt’s playing time.  Aubrey just needs some good male bonding time with his old college teammate, Pat Burrell.  “Anxiety’s just another name for you need to get laid more.”  That’s Pat Burrell’s motto.

Juan Nicasio – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 5 Ks as he battled James McDonald, who threw seven innings of 1 hit ball with 8 Ks and 3 walks.  Even though this game and their seasons so far tell the opposite story, I like Nicasio better than McDonald.  As a commenter said the other day, maybe it’s because Juan’s last name makes me think of my grade school watch calculator.  In the end, I wouldn’t say either are necessarily must-starts in shallower mixed leagues.

Jhoulys Chacin – 5 IP, 5 ER vs. the Pirates.  Still holding him after I told you to drop him the first week of the season?  How’s that working out for you?

Corey Hart – 2-for-3 with his sixth homer.  SIX HOMERS, WHO KNEW?  Well, Al Caps, Corey Hart owners maybe.  His family–  I WAS BEING RHETORICAL.

Carlos Gomez – 2-for-5, batting .371.  I’d say he’s a hot schmotato, but the Brewers aren’t playing him anywhere close to every day.

Jose Altuve – 4-for-5, 3 runs, 1 RBI.  Rudy’s poster child is having a nice breakout as he bats .377 on the year.  Oh, and I was using the alternate definition of “poster child.”  Rudy literally dresses his child in Altuve posters. Rudy also talked about him in this week’s podcast (you know, the one where Corbin Bernsen was a guest).

David Freese – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 4th homer.  You know how someone punts 3rd base in your league and gets lucky with one of their flyers?  Whoever drafted Freese looks like that guy this year.

Lance Lynn – 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 1.33.  Yeah, I told you to pick him up before the season even started, but I don’t need another notch in my belt; I’m skinny.

Bryan LaHair – 1-for-4 with a solo homer.  Did you know I have French ancestry and my family name was once LaBright?  Totally not a true story.  I own LaHair (above my LaLip) in an NL-Only league and he’s fighting it out with my cougar for my love.  The LaHairness is racing for mixed league value, and I’d want to be the one to own him.

Trevor Cahill – 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER which comes after a 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER effort.  Can’t wait for his next 5 IP, 4 ER start.  I keed with your fantasy feelings.  In most leagues, I’d try to hold onto Cahill; I think he’ll be better and he only has a 3.70 ERA; it’s not like he’s Scherzer’ing all over your team.

Jarrod Parker – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  How was that debut?  How about sparkerling?  Yes, I’d pick him up.  Yes, in your league too.  I just went over my Jarrod Parker fantasy the other day.  I wrote it while sitting on top of a crescent moon with an umbrella drink.

Alex Liddi – 2-for-5 with his 2nd homer in as many games.  Being the one major leaguer that was born in Italy has its drawbacks for Liddi, after a base hit in the sixth, he peered across the diamond to his third base coach giving signs and thought he was flipping him off.

Jason Hammel – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Has close to a K/IP, a 1.00 WHIP and a 1.73 ERA.  I’m officially on board, but there’s one problem.  Or caveat if you’re Latin.  His next start is in the House They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built.  I want no part of that start.  So if your league is a bunch of vultures, grab Hammel now and bench him.  If you think you can get Hammel even if he pitches well at New York, then let him sit on waivers for a week.

Kyle Drabek – 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I’ve said to pick him up for, like, three straight weeks.  I’m moving on now.  You do what you do, I’ll do what I do and we’ll let our probation officers figure out the rest.

Chris Sale – 8 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks.  I like Parker this much, but I like Sale this much.  I was holding my arms further apart for Sale.

Hector Santiago – 1/3 IP, 3 ER, giving up a homer to the Cuban raftee, Yoenis.  What the H. Santiago?  About two weeks ago, I said Santiago wouldn’t make it out of April with the closer job.  Well, his ERA is 8.53 and literally everyone in their bullpen is better.  I mean, no shizz here, everyone.  I think Reed will end up getting saves at some point, but Thornton’s been solid and he has that ever elusive closer experience gene that MIT is currently trying to grow in a Petri dish for the Red Sox.  If I had to guess, and that’s what I’m doing at this point, I’d pick up Thornton first.  If he’s gone, I’d speculate on Reed.  If Reed’s gone, make me a Denver omelet.  Oh, well.  I tried.

Omar Infante – 2-for-4 with his 5th home run.  Infante has as many homers as Stanton has RBIs.  FMFBBL!

Billy Butler – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and 2 homers.  This was the first time he heard “what a pair” and didn’t blush.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 6 IP, 4 ER, 9 baserunners, 2 Ks.  Ubaldo won the award yesterday for the most fantasy owners looking to drop him.  I think it might be the right move too.  I’m tilting in that direction.  I would put him on my bench in most leagues and see what he does next time out.

Angel Pagan – 1-for-5 with a home run.  He has 17 hits in 17 games played.  Mr. Obvious, “He’s averaging one hit every game.”  He also has two homers in the last 5 games.  I’m not saying he’s a hot schmotato yet, but he’s on the brink of it.  Right now, he’s been in the microwave for eight minutes and he’s still a bit too solid when you stick a fork in him.

Brennan Boesch – 1-for-4 with his 2nd homer in 3 games.  Pick him up immediately!  Seriously, don’t make me explain it to you.  If he was dropped, grab him.  Now.

C.J. Wilson – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 11 Ks.  I think I got some funny looks by ranking Wilson as high as I did in the preseason, but I’d take him over Haren at this point.  Yeah, I said it.

Vernon Wells – 2-for-4 with his 4th homer as he bats .239.  If he hits two more homers by next week and raises his average to .260 (which would only really take, like, two 3-for-4 games), I’m gonna mention how I told you to draft him in the preseason.  If he doesn’t do one of those two things, we’ll once again go back to never mentioning that I ever suggested you draft him.  Hey, at least I’m honest with you about my hedging.  Bee tee dubya, he has 4 more homers than Stanton.  I’m crying right now, please look away.  Hey, my tears are wiping Stanton’s name off my Trapper Keeper.  What does that mean?  I wish I had a pint of ice cream and… Why isn’t Lifetime playing Bride Wars!?

Top 80 Outfielders for 2012 Fantasy Baseball

January 30, 2012 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings 27 Comments →

I’m no Nostradumbass, but I’m telling you there’s not going to be a whole lot of greatness coming out of this post.  We’re Cousteau deep right now.  The first tier have some nice flyers that you may drop after a week or so and the other schmohawks in this post are, well, schmohawks.  So all the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings are found under yonder and we’re moving onto pitchers next.  That should excite you, you special person you.  C’mon, let me pinch your cheeks.  I didn’t say your face cheeks.  Hey now!  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Alex Presley – This tier started in the top 60 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball post.  This tier goes from here until Mitch Moreland.  I called this tier, “You may get a top 20 outfielder from any of these guys.  Or a guy you want to drop by April 15th.”  I already went over my Alex Presley fantasy.  I wrote it while suing Supercuts for giving me simply a “great cut.”  2012 Projections:  80/10/60/.270/20

62. Mike Carp -  I sorta mentioned this in the top 60 outfielder post, but a big problem we’re having right now is there are some real interesting upside gambles on some really terrible teams.  Can someone pull a fast one and switch Carp with Trout?  For the job, I propose Tim Salmon.  Most of the schmohawks in this tier look like they Revere, Ben.  At least with Carp, he’s giving you power, though, maybe nothing else.  2012 Projections:  55/21/70/.260/3

63. Chris Heisey – I like Chris Heisey a lot lot.  Maybe too much, since he plays for Dusty Baker who insists on putting the horns to at least one young player.  Heisey is either a righty who can’t hit lefties or a righty who hasn’t been given a fair shake to hit lefties.  I think it’s the former, but if it’s the latter then you could have a nice get with Heisey.  With his K-rates, there’s a very real chance he hits .240, but he could also hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases.  There’s also the whole Ryan Ludwick issue.  But Baker wouldn’t really play him over Heisey, would he?  Um, well, it’s a late flyer.  2012 Projections:  50/17/65/.250/10

64. Dayan Viciedo – Having a hard time seeing past his K-rate and his lack of major league experience, but know someone who isn’t having a hard time with those things?  Bill James.  His projections for Viciedo are 21/3/.275.  Viciedo had a .186 average vs. righties last year, but, as I tell girlfriends, that’s just a small sample size.  He has destroyed minor league pitching and he’s only a Latin 22.  2012 Projections:  60/15/70/.260/3

65. Michael Brantley – Some crazy speed in the minors, but almost 500 plate appearances last year translated to the majors about as well as French comedy translates here.  He’s like the American League version of Dexter Fowler (or the outfield’s Alcides Escobar, if that works better for you).  Brantley stole 46 bases in Triple-A in 2009.  Don’t make me hire Davey Lopes to coach you.  Just run.  2012 Projections:  60/6/50/.275/20

66. Josh Reddick – I already went over my Josh Reddick fantasy when he was traded. I did it like this, I did it like that. I did it with a Wiffle ball bat. 2012 Projections: 75/15/85/.260/10

67. Jon Jay – There’s been some speculation that The Federalist may not be the starting center fielder for the Cardinals.  La Russa’s Feathered Hair, “Hey, you don’t have me to kick around anymore!  That’s on Matheny.”  Until Allen Craig returns from surgery, Jon Jay should book that job, so there’s no reason to ask, why do the righteous suffer?  2012 Projections:  50/12/40/.280/10

68. Alejandro De Aza – Last year in Triple-A, he had 9 homers, 22 steals and hit .322 in 99 games.  He was also 27 years old.  Sounds Quad-A-ey (which is not a legal word for Words With Friends; I’ve tried).  But, in only 171 plate appearances in the major leagues, he had 4 homers and 12 steals.  That’s 12/30 over the course of a full season.  Too bad they outlawed full seasons after Ripken retired.   Could give De Aza a shot in March and when he’s no longer worth owning, you can tell your friends you just did the Alejandrop.  Don’t get sad!  Imaginary friends work too!  2012 Projections:  60/7/30/.270/20

69. John Mayberry – Last year, at the age of 27, he finally saw significant time in the major leagues.  He also kept his K-rate fairly manageable.  Maybe he was learning to walk again.  Damn, that Foo Fighters song is annoyingly catchy.  If Clarence were to show Ryan Howard what life would’ve been like without him, John Mayberry may have had a career.  While Ryan Howard is learning to walk again — ugh, so catchy — Mayberry should be starting somewhere.  2012 Projections:  40/18/55/.250/10 in 400 ABs.

70. Jordan Schafer – I almost avoided putting any Astros hitters into any favorable ranking tiers.  Oh, well.  Here’s one, and even if you’re drafting purely on Zimmermania, Jordan Schafer is barely registering above yawnstipating.  Person who just stumbled on Razzball, “Zimmermania?  Yawnstipating?  What is this mustachioed fool talking about?”  Schafer isn’t much more than SAGNOF (Again, huh?!) but he hit as many as 10 homers in Double-A one year so maybe he can do something without the pressure of the pennant race.  (Astros fan, “Oh, just wait until 2028 for us to come on!  Assuming all other major leagues team fall to the Plague of 2027.”)  Dang, two Astros zings in one post.  Hey, one zing for each of their fans.  2012 Projections:  75/5/35/.245/25

71. Mitch Moreland – Was surprised to see he didn’t make my top 20 1st basemen post.  Not sure what I was thinking.  And if I don’t know, who’s gonna?  What I might’ve been thinking was he’s already light on power and this offseason he had wrist surgery, which is not a recipe for more power as the Barefoot Contessa would tell you.  2012 Projections:  60/15/70/.275/3

72. Angel Pagan – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Span.   I call this tier, “It’s hard for me to tell you to draft these guys, because, if things work out as planned, I won’t.  But one of them might be more valuable than I’m ranking them, and, if you know which one, you’re a witch and that scares me.”  You know what’s weird?  Pagan and Torres seem to always be linked in the rankings.  You’re like, “They’re the same person!”  But they were traded for each other.  How do you figure that?  Weird, right?  Yeah, I’m smart.  2012 Projections:  75/6/40/.280/27

73. Andres Torres – I could tell you to just look 1/8th of an inch above, but that’s lazy talk!  *thinking*  Actually, just look above.  Thanks!  2012 Projections:  70/5/40/.265/24

74. Seth Smith – The Lisper’s Nightmare will finally get to start without having to look over his shoulder.  And it’s now in Oakland, which is yet another pitchers’ park that ends in “co.”   Thit!  2012 Projections:  55/15/70/.275/10

75. Martin Prado – Went over Prado’s projections in the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

76. Josh Willingham – I can hear someone giving me guff for putting The Other White Meat this low in the rankings, but really he’s the first guy you drop when you want to pick up a hot hitter.  Admit it at least to yourself.  Willingham is the same as every other hot schmotato Luke Scott-Ty Wigginton clone that gets hot for a few weeks.  2012 Projections:  65/22/80/.250/3

77. Jason Kubel – I fought with myself over whether to put Kubel or Willingham first in these rankings.  Finally, I flipped my Morneau voodoo doll and it came up heads, which either meant Willingham should be ranked first or another year of Morneau head trauma.  I’ll let you decide.  2012 Projections:  60/20/75/.260

78. Ben Revere – Span and Revere seem like another two guys that are forever linked.  You say, “Same player!  Move on!”  But how do you explain that they play on the same team?  Still weird!  2012 Projections:  70/1/35/.280/30

79. Denard Span – Again, if I were going to be lazy– Eh, just look above.  2012 Projections:  65/4/55/.280/25

80. Carlos Lee – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the post.  I call this tier, “In less than 7 years, these guys will receive just over 5% of the Hall of Fame vote and barely stay on the ballot for one more year.”  Hey, do the Astros a favor, Chuck Lee, and shut em’ down.  2012 Projections:  60/20/80/.265/3

80 1/8. Grady Sizemore – Sizemore is only 29 years old and only three years removed from a 33/38 season.  But, oh, what a three year span that was.  He took naked photos of himself and his career took the exact inverse (inter)course of Kim Kardashian’s.  Turned out Tom Sizemore wasn’t the only Sizemore with a joint problem and Grady is starting to show the wear and tear of an 80-year-old man like his first name makes him sound.  With a 28.8% K-rate and 4 steals in the last two years, there’s really no reason to believe in Sizemore, but if you want to believe in miracles.  2012 Projections:  75/17/60/.245/5

80 1/4. Jason Bay – Member the days when Jason Bay was good?  We wore our hair longer then.  Well, you had hair.  We had some laughs!  Crazy times!  2012 Projections:  60/20/65/.250/8

80 what/fraction-is-this? Aubrey Huff – For almost his entire career, he’s alternated between good years and bad years.  If you think that’s a reason why he’s going to be good in 2012, I’ll tell you it’s hooey.  Grey, “It’s hooey.”  See?  2012 Projections:  50/18/65/.255/3

80 1/2. Alfonso Soriano – About three years ago, Soriano turned 47 years old and he just hasn’t looked the same.  “Get outta here you little brats, grandpa’s gotta go limp around the outfield!  Geez, Vlad’s got it so easy with the DH.”  That’s Alfonso in the dugout babysitting Starlin Castro and Geovany Soto.  2012 Projections: 45/18/60/.240/3

80 3/4. Bobby Abreu – He shouldn’t even be ranked.  He’s coasting on good vibes and bad farts.*  (*That’s my saying, but use it so it catches on.  Your mother at dinner, “What do you think of that Ashton Kutcher?”  You, “He’s coasting on good vibes and bad farts.”  See?  It’s easy to use.)  2012 Projections:  60/10/65/.250/15

Santos Saves Toronto’s Christmas, 2012 Games

December 07, 2011 By: Grey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball, 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft 49 Comments →

Sergio Santos was traded to the Blue Jays for Nestor Molina, no relation to Alfred.  Santos will take over the Blue Jays closing job with Frank Francisco being waved away like a stale fart — Stank Fartcisco, if you will.  Santos was made for this job.  He’s a cyborg.  A cyborg of Ks who was sent here from the future to save games and to dance to the club remix of O Canada.  Only wish he wasn’t traded so less people would be aware of him and he’d come as a bargain in 2012 fantasy drafts.  Alas, he’s still gonna be worth a high (for a closer) draft pick.  Last year he had 92 Ks in 63 1/3 IP.  Who are you, Carlos Marmol?  I love you, Santos, now have my babies and then name them something with a K.  Like Klancy or Kasey or Keith.  Anyway, here’s some more moves for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Heath Bell – Signed with the Miami Marlins to replace Juan Carlos Oviedo, who wants to know why the Florida Marlins can change their name but he can’t.  Heath Bell will be a capable closer that I may or may not have on my fantasy teams, depending on where he’s drafted.  I think he’ll probably be too rich for my blood.  If I get a transfusion, I’ll revisit him.

Luke Gregerson – As of right now he’s going to be the Padres closer.  His K-rate was about as ugly as it gets for relievers.  Easily the worst K-rate for a successful reliever. (No data was shifted through to verify this, but he had a 5.50 K-rate; that’s egregious.  Or Egregerson, if you will.)  Does any of this matter if Gregerson’s on the board late and he’s still the closer in March (the Padres might get someone else or change their minds; it’s their prerogative)?  Nah, I’d draft Gregerson on every team of mine if he’s the closer.

Jon Rauch – Is anyone changing teams besides relievers?  C’mon, Pujols and Fielder, sign already!  For now, we have Rauch to talk about.  Yay.  He signed with the Mets to set-up in the 8th inning and reach things off of high shelves.

Frank Francisco – Hey, it’s Stank Fartcisco!  Long time no hear from.  The Mets brass, “Francisco and Rauch were so good in Toronto last year, let’s get them to close out our wins!”  Janitor overhearing them, “They weren’t good.”  Mets brass, “Hey, Janitor, you wanna manage the team?”  Janitor, “I am.  I’m Terry Collins.”  Mets brass, “Who?”  I’d be more than willing to draft Francisco since he’ll be getting saves, but it won’t be pretty.  I guarantee at least five times during 2012 you’ll hear me say, “Rauch is now the closer.”  Then a week later I’ll say, “Francisco’s the closer.”  Then a week after that I’ll say, “Hey, whatever happened to Bobby Parnell?”

Angel Pagan – Was traded to the Giants for Andres Torres (and Ramon Ramirez).  This trade happens in your fantasy league when two owners grow bored and trade apples for apples.  Neither of these apples are delicious.

Joe Saunders – Stays with the Diamondbacks.  NL West hitters rejoice.

Aaron Harang – The Harangutan brings his ugly mug to the Dodgers.  These are the times when I’m glad I don’t have to do Alyssa Milano’s job of sleeping with every Dodgers player.

Nate McLouth – Goes back to Pittsburgh.  Pirates obviously want to put together a McOutfield.  First one between Tabata and Presley to add Mc gets the starting gig.  There hasn’t been a complete McOutfield since the Federal League’s Boston Bogtrotters in 1915.

Matt Capps – Resigns with the Twins.  Member when Nathan signed with the Rangers and you asked me, “Grey, que paso?  Donde es Twins closer ahora?”  And I said, “Shut the SAP button off your computer.”  Good times we had.  Any hoo!  Capps will be the closer in Minny until he turds up their games and Gardenhire starts picking his bullpen scab.

Jerry Hairston Jr. – Signed by the Dodgers.  First Harang and now Hairston Jr.!  Dodgers look like they’re putting together a team using Groupons.

Kendrys Morales – Has been swinging aggressively and jogging on a weightless treadmill.  Looks like NASA’s got their first baseman!  In the moon league that Kendrys is training for, when you celebrate a game-winning home run, you gently fall down to home plate.

Kevin Slowey – To the Rockies.  That’s like dressing up Tina Turner as a piñata and inviting her to a quinceañera.

Dmitri Young – Lost 70 pounds and wants to get back into baseball.  The last time that much excess Young weight was lost was when the Twins traded Delmon to the Tigers.

Aroldis Chapman – Sounds like he won’t be in the rotation again in 2012.  Him and Joba should commiserate about how their clubs are totally Mr. Bungling their careers and costing them millions.

Bryce Harper – I already went over my Bryce Harper 2012 fantasy.  I wrote it while receiving shock therapy.  Since then the Nats said he might be the starting right fielder out of camp.  If I may read between the lines, what they actually said was, “We are not having Harper start out of camp, but we’d sure like to sell some tickets to our home games in April besides the ones Strasburg is pitching.”

Sad Trumbone

September 27, 2011 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 75 Comments →

Mark Trumbo is done for the year with a stress fracture in his foot.  What an inauspicious end to his rookie season, if I’m using the word inauspicious correctly, or even spelling it right.  Year line was 65/29/87/.254/9.  Trumbo’s OBP was tizzerrible at .291, but his minor league rates suggest he can grow into someone that can take a walk here and there.  He’ll never be a .400 OBP guy.  The power and the light speed is for real.  His most impressive number for this year?  539.  As in the number at-bats Scioscia gave him.  Sure, he was a bit hogtied with Kendrys adding an S for “sidelined.”  In 2012 when Kendrys returns (or is the verb singular there?), we’ll see if Scioscia learned his lesson that every player doesn’t need to be a variation of a light-hitting middle infielder.   I have my doubts.  There’s talk Trumbo could see action at third base next year, but he fields about as well as Dalton Trumbo avoided commie accusations.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday for fantasy baseball:

Yovani Gallardo – Scratched from his last start so he’s ready for the postseason.  Um, I have fantasy championships on the line?  Hello, priorities.  On a real baseball note, I hope the Brewers go all the way in the playoffs.  That is who I’m rooting for.  Or is it whom?  Anyhoo!  (Anywhom?)  Not just because I want to see Selig’s toupee get all bent out of shape when he hands the World Series trophy to the owner that replaced him or because I picked them in the preseason.  I want the Sausage Race on a national stage.  The kielbasa has toiled in obscurity long enough.

Andrew McCutchen – After being hit in the groin during batting practice, he was scratched.  Hopefully by Mrs. Dread Pirate.

Kevin Youkilis – Sawx announced it’s doubtful that he plays in the O’s series.  According to the latest ESPN, The Magazine, Youkilis doesn’t need to play because Boston is the greatest sports city in the world and that gets them an automatic bye into the playoffs.  For every sport.

Josh Beckett – 6 IP, 6 ER, 11 baserunners, 5 Ks.  ESPN, The Magazine said Beckett is the biggest of the biggest big game pitchers in the majors and when a game is on the line he gets it done better than anyone.  Unless said game is against one of the worst teams in the majors.

Jed Lowrie – 1-for-4 with a homer after going 2-for-3 in his previous start.  When he gets hot, he tends to get very hot, so might be worth looking at him for the last couple of games.

James Shields – 8 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks.  On a related note, Yahoo doesn’t count a playoff game, but ESPN does.  I’d start to grab any Rays and Red Sox players you can in case there’s a one game playoff.  Kelly Shoppach?  Yes.  Lowrie?  Yes.  Salty, Scutaro, Brignac, Kotchman, Joyce… Even grab middle relievers for a possible vulture win.  Everyone.  This obviously goes for the Cardinals and the Braves too.  Matt Diaz, Alex Gonzalez, Freese, Jon Jay, Molina, etc.  Grab them now before your leaguemates do.

Mat Latos – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  Ends the year with a 3.47 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 185 Ks.  Well, if this year was a step back, I’ll take it every day and twice on Muesday.

Doug Fister – 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 9 Ks.  This season Mr. Fister took my broken wings, and taught me to fly, live and love so free.

Rafael Furcal – Left the game with a tight hamstring.  Figures, had been almost a week since his last injury.

Matt Wieters – Hit his 21st homer.  Where’s his just desserts?  Is he getting them?  Did they reopen Matt Wieters Facts dot com?

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Gotta be embarrassing for all the baby mommas in Colorado that named their kid Ubaldo during the first half of last year.  “Because you were, uh, bald.  Um, oh.”  That’s the moms explaining their child’s name to them when they turn 13.  You know, when they’re prepping for their bar mitzvah.

Randall Delgado – 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 baserunners.  I love the Braves young pitchers.  That is all.

Alex Gonzalez – 1-for-3 as he returned to the lineup.  When he left, he was on fire with three homers in his last 6 games.

Angel Pagan – Done for the year.  There’s a conspiracy theory why his season is done that you can read about in Dan Brown’s latest novel, Angels & Pagans.  I believe the Illuminati is behind it.  BTW, if you Google Illuminati, you find Lady Gaga is a puppet for the Illuminati.  That made me laugh.  I think everyone should have one friend who is a conspiracy theorist.  Not a close friend, just someone you talk to once in a while.  The smarter the conspiracy theorist friend you have, the weirder the theories.  I recently talked to my friend who’s a conspiracy theorist and was told that Bin Laden is still alive, living in Virginia and working with the US government on the war with terror.  I wondered if Bin Laden likes Five Guys Burgers.  “This is delicious cow meat!”  That’s Bin Laden eating a burger in Washington, D.C.

Jarrod Dyson – 1-for-4 with a steal.  He should be starting for the final two games of the season and he has speed to burn, if that interests you.

Mike McCoy – 0-for-3 with 2 steals.  See what I said about Jarrod Dyson or 1/8th of an inch above.

Brian Wilson – Casilla got the save yesterday as Wilson was shut down for the year.  All beards in San Francisco will now be at half mast.

Kevin Slowey – 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER and he was relieved by Hoey.  Dewey and Louie stayed in the bullpen.

Shaun Marcum – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Left his September 4th start with a 3.11 ERA and will end the season with a 3.54 ERA.  Yeah, I could’ve done without the last three weeks of starts.

Jack McKeon – The 80-year-old is retiring.  When the Marlins wouldn’t make their entire schedule day games to accommodate Carrows’ early bird specials, McKeon had no choice.  This opens up room for Ozzie Guillen, who was released yesterday by the White Sox.  At one point, it was rumored that Ozzie was being traded for Logan Morrison.  They could’ve just traded Twitter accounts.  I imagine the first day Ozzie is in South Beach he’s going to walk around muttering to himself, wondering why there are so many Jay Mariotti’s.

Don’t Look Back in Anger: Angel Pagan, Matt Wieters, James McDonald

September 13, 2011 By: Albert Lang Category: fantasy baseball strategy 22 Comments →

Angel Pagan – Twelve years ago, the New York Mets made Pagan, an 18-year-old, a fourth round draft pick – however it was not a smooth transition from draft to Shea for the young Puerto Rican.

Things started out well for Pagan. He dominated rookie ball in 2000 and A- and A ball in 2001. Things got a little tougher as he got to A+ ball in 2003. He went just .249/.307/.313 with 35 steals in 50 attempts. He flashed very little power and poor plate discipline (104 Ks to just 46 walks).

Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from promoting him to AA the following year. His 2004 season would be terrific (.287/.346/.413) and validated the decision. At 23, if he could show good success in AAA in 2005, he’d be a shoo-in for a call-up. Unfortunately, he never really got going, finishing with a .271/.333/.395 line with 27 steals in 45 attempts.

The, on January 25, 2006, the Chicago Cubs purchased Pagan’s contract. He spent the majority of 2006 in the majors, although he suffered a lot of injuries and missed over two months. In 187 plate appearances, he went .247/.306/.394. Still, on July 2, his 25th birthday, Pagan hit two dingers – they just happened to be the first two of his career. Pagan was, quickly, a Major League record holder, being the first player to hit his first two career homers on his birthday.

However that would be the highlight of his tenure with the Cubs. The following season, 2007, Pagan had similar struggles as 2006: he struck out a decent bit, didn’t walk at all and got hurt again (suffering from colitis and losing a lot of weight). The Cubs traded him back to the Mets for two guys you’ve likely never heard of: Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers.

Abracadabra, Pagan was the starting left fielder for the Mets in 2008 thanks to Moises Alou’s general brittleness. He ceded the position back to Alou in early May and injured his shoulder making a spectacular grab against the Dodgers on May 7. He had season ending surgery on July 29. Still, all was not lost, as he finished with a .275/.346/.374 line, brought his Ks down a tad and his walks up a good bit. He also started to hit line drives (23%) and his swinging strike rate dipped below 5% after being 7.1% the previous two years. Still, it was just 105 plate appearances, so nothing was certain for 2009.

Let’s just say, May 7 is a pretty unlucky day for Pagan. A year to the day after his season-ending catch, Pagan was arrested for traffic violations as there were several warrants out for his arrest for failure to pay other traffic fines. His legal problems didn’t hold him back though, rather his old arch nemesis did: his health. He went on the DL on June 1 with a groin strain. But he made his way back and, on August 1, hit a grand slam – his first home run since 2007 and his first for the team that drafted him. While Pagan had a nice BABIP (.349), his .306/.350/.487 line was not completely unexpected. He continued to have a line drive rate hovering around 20% and he swung and missed just 4.2% of the time – he was putting the ball in play more and hitting it well.

In that context, his break-out 2010 made sense. In fact, you could have argued that his .290/.340/.425 line was underwhelming given that the power wasn’t there at levels you’d expect.

Given his career arc, 2011 should have been a repeat of 2010 with an uptick in most numbers. That hasn’t happened. As has been the case throughout his career, Pagan has battled injuries. However, his BABIP (.288) is sitting a lot lower than it should compared to his career with the Mets (never lower than .330) given he has a massive 24% line drive rate. His K-rate is just 10.9% and his swinging strike percentage is quite low as well – he is putting the ball in play and he is hitting the ball hard. He’s been tremendously unlucky. If healthy, Pagan is a huge asset down the stretch, capable of batting well with some light pop and a good amount of steals. I also think he’ll be a bargain for 2012.

Matt Wieters – The Orioles have sucked for a long time…not Nationals-level sucking (which resulted in back-to-back drafts yielding Strasburg and Harper), but certainly bad enough to land some sort of blue chip future superstar. When Wieters was selected fifth overall in 2007, he was supposed to be that blue chip.

Wieters was a man amongst toddlers during his entire minor league career. He went .345/.448/.576 in A+ ball and .365/.460/.625 in AA in 2008. In 2009, he posted a .305/.387/.504 line in AAA before earning the call.

In his second career game, he had his first major league hit, a triple against Justin Verlander. He hit his first major league home run off the hated Mets. Wieters finished 2009 with a .288/.340/.412 line in the majors. There were definite growing pains, though. He swung and missed a lot (10.5% of the time) and posted a 22.3% K-rate compared to a sub-optimal 7.3% walk rate. In addition, his power (just nine dingers and a .124 ISO) came nowhere near his minor league numbers.

The last red flag was his .356 BABIP (which was in line with what he did in the minors). However, his line drive rate was acceptable (18.5%), but not nearly good enough to sustain a BABIP anywhere close to .350.

Sure enough, 2010 brought massive struggles. Wieters finished with a .249/.319/.377 line – worse at each slash than 2009. Still, his ISO was up a smidge, his walk rate neared 10% and he swung and missed less. However, he didn’t make real good contact (15.4% line drive rate) and hit way too many ground balls for a catcher. Not surprisingly, his BABIP was just .287.

There wasn’t a ton of optimism heading into 2011, but there were a lot of ‘ifs.’ If Wieters got his line drives up, if he continued to cut down on the Ks, if he started to drive the ball, things could, maybe, break the right way. Well, they have, sort of. Wieters sits at .263/.324/.434. His K-rate has continued its decline and his HR/FB rate has finally reach double digits (his ISO is now .171). He is also hitting the ball better (17.8% line drive rate) without much change in his BABIP from 2010.

Wieters will make a fine catcher down the stretch. I believe in the steps he has taken and think his BABIP should shoot above .300 next year, which could result in a nice average from a catcher. As he continues to mature, he’ll drive the ball more and more. Look out 2012, Wieters is going to be a star.*

*In interest of full disclosure, I’m an Orioles fan. However, I’m a huge pessimist when it comes to my teams (Orioles and Eagles, predominantly). I’d rather bet on the under and have someone exceed my expectations than sour on a player (*ahem* Manny Alexander, Jeffrey Hammonds) after I placed high expectations on them. So, I think I’m as objective as possible on Wieters. His numbers tell a story, a story I want to invest in as a fantasy owner.

James McDonald – The Dodgers took McDonald as a draft and follow pick in the 11th round of the 2002 draft. This allowed him to go to Golden West College before starting in the majors. McDonald, a Long Beach Poly student (a school that boasts Tony Gwynn, Milton Bradley, Chase Utley, Tyus Edney, DeSean Jackson, Winston Justice, Willie McGinest, Billie Jean King, Cameron Diaz, Snoop Dogg, Carl Weathers!, and others as graduates), must have been thrilled that his hometown club took him.

In 2003, McDonald started off well for the Gulf Coast Dodgers, however he missed all of 2004 and most of 2005 with an injury. He came back to start 22 games and make eight relief appearances for the Ogden Raptors in A ball in 2006. He finished with a 3.98 ERA and 1.29 WHIP but just a 2.25 K:BB rate.

He took a nice stride in 2007 across A+ and AA ball, finishing with a 3.07 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with a mighty fine 4.54 K:BB rate. He was named the Dodgers minor league pitcher of the year.

The following year, across AA and AAA, McDonald looked to have pitched quite well with a 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. However, his K:BB rate (2.66) was nothing special for a 23-year-old. Still, he made his major league debut with the big league club, working one scoreless inning of relief against (oddly enough) the Pittsburgh Pirates.

McDonald’s career had pointed at 2009 as the day he would take the mound as a starter for his hometown club. Unfortunately, things didn’t go well. In his first start, he didn’t escape the third inning. He only got three more starts, making it to the fifth in just one, before being banished to the bullpen. With a 6.75 ERA on May 14, McDonald got his second banishment: to AAA. Quite simply, McDonald had real problems with his control, walking 4.75+ batters per 9 – that aint gonna cut it.

McDonald started 2010 in the minors, putting up decent Ks but a bit too many walks. The Dodgers were done with him. Along with Andrew Lambo, the Dodgers exiled McDonald to Pittsburgh for the services of a fringe-above-average reliever in Octavio Dotel. Looking back, though, wasn’t that a favor to McDonald? The Dodgers are an absolute mess and the Pirates have some young players that look good. If I’m an alien, I’d rather be a Pirates fan than Dodgers fan right now…maybe (it’d be hard to give up rooting for Kemp/Kershaw).
Anyway, McDonald blossomed in Pittsburgh. He started 11 games for the club in 2010 and posted a 3.52 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 3.84xFIP, 8.58 K/9 rate and 3.38 BB/9 rate – huge improvements.

While he has been a little lucky in 2011 (78.7% strand rate) and his Ks have taken a bit of a step back (7.5 per 9), he is getting good swinging strike rates (8.2%), is giving up less line drives (18.7%) and has greatly improved his ground ball rate (42.1%). I’d happily trade a handful of Ks for many more balls hit on the ground. McDonald seems to be settling himself in as a solid MLB pitcher for the next few years. He is by no means sexy, but could carve himself a very similar career to Ted Lilly. He’s a nice player to own for the rest of the season and for the next few years.