Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

That’s right folks, we already have a mock draft in the books. Why? Because ef the off-season, that’s why. I’d like to pass along a special thanks to our very own Grey Albright and Bryan Curley of Baseball Professor for setting up this multi-site super exposition of what fantasy baseball writers can do when there’s no fantasy baseball. Scary. I know. And while there are certain limitations that might arise from a draft that takes place so soon after the 2013 season, I prefer to use it as a litmus test, to see how the 2013 season affected specific player’s draft position and overall value. So there’s something to be gleaned here. And if you are into spoilers and want to see how the entire draft played out, you can check out the results here. Also, if you have an inexplicable yearning to get lost in early 90′s website design, enjoy. Anyhow, let’s get this party started with heavy amounts of gleaning after the jump.

Here’s the lowdown, because nobody calls it the updown…

Style: 5×5 Roto, Size: 12-team, 25-man rosters, Positions: 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, U / 5 SP, 2 RP, 2 P / 2 BN

Note: Why we have bench spots for a mock draft, I have no idea. But if there was anything to be learned from the fallout of my 2013 Bold Predictions, the take away is that even in a mock draft, my targeted players would have an intense desire to get injured while not even playing. So I guess having a mock bench as backup helps me with depth. Because hedging is the new winning. Something like that.

Draft Roster and Order:

1 — George Fitopoulos, Baseball Professor@BaseballProf
2 — Chris McBrien, Dear Mr. Fantasy@cmcbrien
3 — Nate Springfield, Baseball Press@NateSpringfield
4 — Clave Jones, Fantasy Baseball Crackerjacks@clavejones
5 — Eric Broutman, Baseball Professor@BaseballProf
6 — Paul Beck, Baseball Professor@mroaklanda
7 — Jake Devereaux, Baseball Professor@devjake
8 — Tanner Bell, Smart Fantasy Baseball@smartfantasybb
9 — Bryan Curley, Baseball Professor@BaseballProf
10 — Zach Pincince, Baseball Professor@BaseballProf
11 — Adam Nodiff, Baseball Professor@ANodBaseball
12 — Jason LongfellowRazzball@jaywrong

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Recap, Rounds 1-5

1.12Edwin Encarnacion 1B, TOR

With all the household names taken, I went with the most stable top-end production still available. There is little risk here, and 35+ home runs, health permitting, should be counted on. I pleaded the fif here, and my thoughts are still the same. And while the late-season shut down did cause some notice, it’s more a blip than anything, so I’m satisfied with these turn of events. That’s what she, ahem, actually did not say last night.

First Round Notes: Mike Trout (1.1) taken first overall was nice to see. I am a firm believer that he can duplicate closer to his 2012 season than Miguel Cabrera can to his 2012 numbers. Was that a back-handed compliment at Miggy? Maybe. But, to be fair, he doesn’t put up much of a defense. Get it? Because he’s a horrible defensive third baseman. Look, this debate will be the primary preface for most off-season draft discussions, but it’s a dumb debate. You’d be happy with either. I’m just leaning in Trout’s direction. Because fish puns, I guess. The biggest surprise was Tanner Bell (Smart Fantasy Baseball) selecting Hanley Ramirez at 1.8. They say fortune favors the bold. I’m not sure who ‘they’ are, but even ‘their’ right eyebrow’s were raised in Spock-mode by this pick. I’m all for high-risk/high-reward choices in certain circumstances, but with several safer and just as productive choices still on the board (Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, and Adam Jones) this borders on masochism. Speaking of Ryan Braun, I was curious where he would land. I had hoped that the fallout of herpes, FedEx jokes, and claiming the entire north side of Chicago was anti-semitic would drop him to my slot, but alas, ’twas not to be. I blame Obama.

2.13Chris Davis OF, BAL

Even though having the last pick to start the draft has it’s disadvantages, I did like having the turn. There were several directions I could go here. Maybe lean towards positional scarcity and go for a Jean Segura or Jason Kipnis. Maybe nab the best pitcher by a fair margin in Clayton Kershaw. Or maybe even go with a wildcard type of ‘I’m too smart for this’ pick in Bryce Harper. All of these names appealed to me to a certain extent, but none of them felt right. So what felt so right about Davis? I think I was still in the  ‘best player off-the-board’ mindset. To be fair, there is still some risk here. After all, who is the real Chris Davis; the 2012 or 2013 version? What my pick presupposes is, why not both? It doesn’t hurt that his BABIP and Plate Discipline data are all within career norms. Combine that with a change in his swing mechanics and increased flyball distance, there’s a legitimate expectation that while he won’t become the next Barry Bonds, he most certainly can hit 40+ home runs with a batting average you can live with. In today’s run environment, where the only other player to hit 40+ bombs in 2013 was Miguel Cabrera, I’ll take Davis in the low 1st Round, early 2nd Round every single time. And, cornering the market on elite-home run production with my first two picks could theoretically open up some things later on, strategy-wise. Yep, she actually did say that last night. But I have no idea why.

Second Round Notes: Clayton Kershaw ended up being selected by Zach Pincince (Baseball Professor) two picks later at 2.15. Some prefer to wait on pitchers, and I obviously decided to do this, but I’m not against this pick in the least. There were some slight reaches with Prince Fielder going at 2.17 and Jay Bruce at 2.20. Then, Albert Pujols happened, coming off the board at 2.24, drafted by George Fitopoulos (Baseball Professor). I wasn’t sure if I was magically transported to the off-season of 2002 or that the Freddie Freeman selection (2.23) right before had given me concust like symptoms. As I said earlier, fortune favors the bold, but color me skeptical on both of those guys. By-the-way, Bryce Harper was selected at 2.18, which might give some hint that perceptions of him are still strong. I figured there might be some discount here with the injury history and Jason Heyward serving as a cautionary tale. Then again, I was considering him at 2.13… so I’ll officially label this event as ‘fascinating’.

3.36Yu Darvish SP, TEX

If Yu know anything about me, it’s that I love Yu. I mean, I love me, maybe too much, but then comes Yu. Yu know this because I’ve taken the pun to warp 9. And now we have Star Trek in here for no reason whatsoever. I am now officially aroused.

Third Round Notes: This round, I call it the sammich round, because I’m hungry. Also, because I found the opening and ending salvo of Carlos Gomez (3.25) and Alex Rios (3.35) to be… an interesting choice of bread. You could justify the picks by saying they are both a high-risk, high-reward (reoccurring theme!) price of doing business, but I feel there’s more weight on the risk side here. My concerns with Go-Go can be found here, and with Rios…  I can’t say I really understand the player called Rios. He seems to follow the same formula that the Star Trek movies do (MOAR TREK REFERENCES), which is to phone it in right after acting like a boss, rinse and repeat. While that trend was finally broken this last season, I still can’t tell with any kind of certainty what happens next time out. No one can. The meaty part of this round was just fine though. There’s an obvious devaluation of Giancarlo Stanton at play here, but we all know the upside. I thought Chris McBrien’s (Dear Mr. Fantasy) selection of Jean Segura (3.26) before Ian Desmond (3.28) was reverse what I would have done, but other than that, there wasn’t much else out of the ordinary.

4.37Shin-Soo Choo  OF, FA

So, not only do I have a Padres homerism as a handicap, I guess I stick with my Korean homeboys as well. Dat’s raycess. I think. Regardless, not only did I have an overwhelming need to forage for spoiled cabbage in the immediate vincinity, I also wanted to start thinking of the big picture. And what I mean by that is I wanted balance. And no one does balance better than Choo. You’ve got the fantasy baseball triumvirate here… batting average, homeruns, and stolen bases. True, the production comes in trickles, but it’s a dependable trickle. Which, when you think about it for a while, sounds kinda gross.

Fourth Round Notes: There were some things I liked, some things I didn’t like, and some things that were interesting. That’s what this round is about, which is why I came up with that great name for it. Even the acronym is bomb. TWSTILSTIDLASTTWI. Rolls right off the tongue, does it not? What I liked– Josh Donaldson (4.44) getting some well deserved love from Eric Broutman (Baseball Professor). I also showed a similar kind of love in my 2012 Keeper Top-100 List. What I didn’t like — Allen Craig (4.46) getting some undeserved love from Nate Springfield (Baseball Press). Look, I like Allen Craig. I wouldn’t mind having him on my fantasy team, especially if it’s an OBP league. But let’s remember a few things here. Desmond Jennings, Trevor Plouffe, and Asdrubal Cabrera hit more home runs than him. He only played in 136 games… which was a career high. And with Matt Adams entering the picture, a move to outfield has me worried. The numbers tell me he traded fly balls for line drives, which is nice for his batting average. But honestly, if this is who he is, I can buy that with Billy Butler. Who went eight rounds later in this draft. The interesting — Yasiel Puig (4.38). Why? Because #ManBearPuig. Is that a reason? Does it matter? What’s with all of these questions?

5.60 – Wilin Rosario  C, COL

Yes, I realize this might be my first real ‘questionable’ pick. And yeah, I realize Grey’s mustache made a frown-like shape at this specific pick as well. I think it was a frown. But here’s the thing. In a two-catcher league, I always-always-always go with a star/scrub approach. I’m okay with punting or dumpster diving under certain circumstances, but these are two roster spots that require you to fish in one of the shallowest fantasy ponds. I want at least one of the spots to be filled by a top-tier player. With Buster Posey off the board, combined with the fact that after my 6.61 pick, I wouldn’t select again until 21 players later, and with the selections of Yadier Molina (6.63), Carlos Santana (6.71), Joe Mauer (6.72), and Jonathan Lucroy (7.79) in that specific span… Well, all of this illuminates a self-aggrandizing light on the idea that maybe I was onto something here. Wilin Rosario was simply the guy I liked the most out of all those names. I like the power, I like the batting average, and I love the hitting environment. So that may not justify it, but at least, I certainly had my reasons.

Fifth Round Notes: I love Jake Devereaux‘s (Baseball Professor) selection of Jose Fernandez (5.55). Or maybe I just love Fernandez so much, that Jake’s association is enough to spread it all around. I want to love and hate Jason Heyward (5.54) going off the board in this round. At first, I thought it was too high. Then, after further review, I thought maybe it was too low. So I guess we should get some bears and porridge involved and call it just right. But you know how they always say end something on a high note? Not me. I’m flying in the face of that. Why? Because Josh Hamilton (5.50) was selected to open this round. I don’t see any upside with this high of a selection, and my thoughts still mirror my early season alert on what was happening with the Hambone. If you want the short version of my feelings, it simply is this: GAH, KILL IT WITH FIRE!

We’ll cover rounds 6-10 soon, and then, after that, cover the remaining 11-25 rounds of this mockmentiful celebration of what happens when fantasy baseball writers have nothing to do in their mom’s basement during the off-season. Not counting the visits to PornHUB. And, you know, the fridge. And then back to PornHUB. Eh, you get the point.

 

Jason Longfellow, aka Jay Long, aka JayWrong, aka Jay, aka JW-1, is a 31-year old Korean/Irish writer who finds solace using Makers Mark as a vehicle to impress women, and also has an affinity for making Jennifer Lawrence GIFs. You can follow him @jaywrong, read his blog Desultory Thoughts of a Longfellow, or, you can find his GIFs at his tumblr, named Siuijeonseo.

  1. chunk says:
    (link)

    Your Darvish pick was the highest rated in the draft it appears. Well done. I think my biggest surprise was how early Kipnis went.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @chunk: Yeah, I like where I got Darvish. I know Grey doesn’t believe getting pitchers until later, but I cannot deny how much I love Darvish. Overrides everything. And it’s still hard for me to trust Kipnis for a full season, but it was interesting to see him go that high.

  2. Michael B says:
    (link)

    I’m wondering if Rosario becomes a good pick if he moves to RF/1B. I don’t think he would make a very good RF, but if he moves there, he likely won’t sit 1/4 of the games. He had 31 DNPs and 11 one AB games before his September injury, so I could easily see him getting an extra 100+ plate appearances with a move, especially to 1B. Barring injuries of course.

    • The Rockies are going to have their hands full with that expansive OF and two 1B/pretend OF in Rosario and Cuddyer.

      • Rock says:
        (link)

        Rudy. Are you or anyone else on this board planning on drafting any NFBC teams this year? Any advice on the 50 round slow draft? Thanks.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Michael B: Yeah, like Rudy said, with so many OF/1B peeps on their roster, hard to see him fitting in there. I think we just have to assume all catchers will miss around 20 games a year. Some respite at 1B or DH during IL games would be nice to see though.

      • Michael B says:
        (link)

        @Jay: Fair enough, but I wasn’t commenting on whether the Rockies should do it or not. I think they’d be crazy. Just commenting on his value if the move does get made.

        • Jay

          Jay says:
          (link)

          @Michael B: In a redraft league, yeah, the added AB’s would help. When the eligibility situation starts getting affected though, then it evens out a bit.

        • You’re right, Michael. If he becomes a 1B/OF and part-time catcher, I’d think he’d have 500-550 AB. Last year he had 449 (in 121 AB). So he has the potential for 50-100 extra AB. He could definitely be a 30 HR guy with C-eligibility. If he could keep his AVG above .270 + the extra R/RBI counting stats, his upside is $20+.

          That said, I think he’s going to go higher than he should in 1 catcher leagues. There’s too much depth out there to not punt catcher. I took my chances last year with Posey because he had high upside (and extra PAs with 1B) and it still didn’t pay off.

  3. Mike says:
    (link)

    I would rather draft a catcher in the last round not the 5th round.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Like I said, my reasoning was mainly personal preference. Some people say that cucumbers taste better pickled.

  4. Mike says:
    (link)

    Two catcher league I would wait for the last two picks.

  5. Great write-up, Jay. For what it’s worth, my mom’s basement is very well insulated during the cold Boston winters.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Bryan Curley: As is mine! Also, there’s a lot of heat provided by nerdrage.

    • Wake Up says:
      (link)

      @Bryan Curley: great piece on steals! that was the longest, most complicated way that I’ve ever heard to say that you can’t get a 13 in SBs…

      • @Wake Up: I strive for thoroughness, though it often comes off as long-winded…thanks!

        • Wake Up says:
          (link)

          @Bryan Curley: not at all…I enjoyed it

  6. Big Magoo says:
    (link)

    While I find that early mocks are usually more fun than informative, Gomez and Freeman are two of the more interesting players that I’ve been tracking in the offseason. Gomez reminds me of a pre-2013 BJ Upton with a slightly better BA – low-mid 20s in homers and 35-40 steals while hitting .260+ rather than .240ish. I think he’s a solid third rounder, and not too much of a reach at the 2-3 turn where he was selected here. Freeman is baffling to me. He’s basically a poor man’s Votto without the steals – more like a Craig or a Butler. Second round is very high for a sub-30 homer player with no speed. But I hope he stays there for when the real drafts begin.

    And you aren’t crazy for considering Harper at the 1-2 turn. He just needs to understand the purpose of the warning track and he’ll be fine.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo: I’m sorta okay with Gomez there, I’m just not personally going to do it, as I don’t have much faith in him. Freeman at that spot was simply stunning. I’m not a fan of hiim at all and agree with everything you said. There’s just no ceiling there to justify it.

    • @Big Magoo: I like Freeman in that range. He ranked 15-20 last year with a .300/20/100 season. Do you know how many guys did that? Only 5 — Freeman, Cano, Goldy, Cabrera, and Ortiz. First base is pretty shallow, or maybe it’s just really top-heavy, and I like that security. Nothing Freeman did last year was unsustainable, though he’s probably more of a .300 hitter and not .319 since his .371 BABIP is a little high (but not THAT high since his LD% was over 26). He’s 24 years old and he’s trending up.

      • Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Bryan Curley: Freeman is a terrific real-life hitter, but for fantasy purposes I prefer to draft skills such as power and speed over luck-dependent categories such as runs, rbis, and ba. Here’s a quick player comparison to illustrate my point:

        Player A: 10.3% BB%, 20.8% K%, 26.0% LD%, 36.9% FB%, .196 ISO
        Player B: 10.5% BB%, 19.2% K%, 26.7% LD%, 35.2% FB%, .181 ISO

        Player A hit a few more fly balls while player B hit a few more line drives. Nearly identical player profiles, right? That’s because it’s the same player. Player A is Freddie Freeman in 2012 and player B is Freeman in 2013. He hit 23 HRs both years with similar run totals (91 to 89) and stolen bases (2 to 1). The difference? Freeman hit .259 in ’12 and .319 in ’13 (which led to 15 more rbis) with nearly identical batted ball profiles.

        With neutral luck, he’s likely to produce a line similar to this in 2014: 90/25/100/2/.285. A useful line in fantasy, but I’d prefer more category juice in the early rounds and take 80% of that production from a Butler or a Morales ten rounds later.

        • Solid points, Big Magoo. Freeman isn’t an awful pick in 2nd round but hard to feel great about him when his upside is tied to power and he’s shown little growth in 3 years on that front. Not sure where I net out this coming year on 1B drafting strategy. Last year, I liked Goldschmidt (albeit not as much as Grey) in late 2nd/3rd round and a bunch of 1Bs in the 4th-6th round (Freeman turned out the best in this group, Trumbo okay, Rizzo disappointing, Ike Davis was a disaster…)

          • Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @Rudy Gamble: I’ve just started putting together my rankings for ’14 (waiting for the dust to settle in free agency), but an argument can be made that every position is relatively shallow due to the decreased production across the board. In terms of 1B drafting strategy from this past year, I liked Goldschmidt as well (drafted him in three leagues including the RCL Champions League), Fielder in the late 1st/early 2nd round area (didn’t turn out so well), and Trumbo and Freeman in the 5th/6th range (not bad). I wasn’t in on Rizzo or Davis last year.

            For ’14, if I miss out on Goldschmidt, I’ll look at Encarnacion (late 1st/2nd), Fielder if he falls (3rd), AGon/Pujols (4th), Trumbo/Rizzo (6th/7th), or play the waiting game. Votto, Freeman, and Hosmer are going a bit early for my liking. We’ll see what the ADPs look like once March rolls around though.

            • it does feel like the first round has less sure things than the past. had a late pick in several expert drafts this year and hated the options at the time. i think just about every player drafted in picks 11-20 were relative busts except for Beltre and Kershaw (with Encarnacion and Goldschmidt good reaches).

              Stanton, J-Up, Harper, Bautista, Hamilton, Fielder…all of them disappointed to some degree.

              Interested to see in my RCL Analysis how much 1st round pick success led to team success. In the RCL Master Standings, only 4 teams who drafted Ryan Braun finished in the top 133. Same stat goes for Matt Kemp. The ‘average’ # should be close to 11.

              On the flip side, 4 teams who drafted Miggy finished in the top 8 and 4 teams who drafted Robinson Cano finished in the top 16.

              Written of course by a bitter Ryan Braun drafter…

              • Big Magoo says:
                (link)

                @Rudy Gamble: Yeah, I originally had Braun #2 overall behind Miggy, then moved Trout ahead of him when all of the PED chatter began. Luckily, I was never in position to draft him. I avoided Kemp, Pujols, Hamilton, and Stanton on purpose though. Too much risk that early in the draft.

                • I had Braun #3 too and that was my pick in RCL. Ugh. I liked Stanton, avoided Hamilton, and probably would’ve ended up with kemp or Hamilton if drafts broke a certain way. Just sucked that I think my snake draft teams were 0-for-5 last year in terms of getting even close to 1st round value.

                  • Justin says:
                    (link)

                    @Rudy Gamble: Speaking of Braun is keeper worthy??

        • @Big Magoo: Definitely a great point, but I do think it ignores Freeman being 24 years old and trending up. I also think his luck neutral line is probably closer to him being a .300 hitter, which, though it might seem like nit-picking, is a noticeable gap. Plus, if you’re not taking a balanced contributor like Freeman in the 23-30 range, what are you taking? Probably a player like Segura, Pedroia, Bautista, or Stanton (or a SP), each of whom have significant category deficiencies or question marks themselves. I like Freeman’s upside and stability there at a position that drops off quickly, but then again there’s more than one way to skin a cat (or draft a fantasy team).

          Thanks for the response!

          • Big Magoo says:
            (link)

            @Bryan Curley: That’s the main sticking point for me – I don’t consider a player with mid-20s HR power and no speed a balanced contributor. There were three 1B eligible players with similar profiles to Freeman who were projected as .300/25 HR/no speed hitters going into ’13: Adrian Gonzalez, Allen Craig, and Billy Butler. Here’s how each of them fared:

            A-Gon: 69/22/100/1/.293
            Craig: 71/13/97/2/.315
            Butler: 62/15/82/0/.289

            Not exactly second round material. I understand that Freeman is 24 and hasn’t reached his power prime yet, but he’s more of a gap-to-gap line drive hitter in the mold of these guys (who were all in their primes and coming off of strong seasons, btw). I would lean towards a power/speed player or a 35+ HR threat over Freeman in that draft range.

            Oh, and by the way, love your site. All of you guys do a great job over there. Keep up the good work!

            • Wake Up says:
              (link)

              @Big Magoo: as usual…you nailed it…

              • Big Magoo says:
                (link)

                @Wake Up: Thanks, Wake. Oh and if we’re in a league together next year, the 1B strategy that I outlined above is a, uh, smokescreen. Yeah, that’ll do…

                • Wake Up says:
                  (link)

                  @Big Magoo: haha…I’m still planning on it!

                  I know what you mean, but I’d rather discuss and share than worry about that…in the interest of disclosure…I will be doing the same thing that you mentioned, with these exceptions…uh, this exception, won’t be taking Pujols in the 4th…may reach on Hosmer…

                  and by you nailed it…I really mean that I agree…which means that I already was considering the same thing…which means you didn’t really spill any beans…which is to say that you still definitely have 246 toothpi…uh, beans…definitely…

                  • Big Magoo says:
                    (link)

                    @Wake Up: I probably won’t wind up with Pujols in many (any?) leagues anyway. If he’s still hobbling around the way he was last year, I’ll avoid him. If he appears to be healthy again and starts raking in the spring, he’ll probably be overdrafted. So it goes.

                    I like Hosmer, but I can see him putting up a similar line to Butler with a dozen steals or so. He’s a line drive hitter playing in a pitcher’s park just like Moobs. Not bad, but I’m looking for a few more longballs out of my 1B.

                    And don’t worry, I try not spill any beans outside of the comfort of my own home…

  7. Andrew says:
    (link)

    what if you did a post that injected Auction values into the mock draft results? It might not be perfect, but maybe it would be useful to compare different slots with dollar amounts

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Andrew: Actually, this makes me think a mock auction at some point might be useful…

  8. Shoop Da Whoop says:
    (link)

    Salvador Perez got a 10th place MVP vote.

    Clearly, one of the voters was trolling Grey

  9. Todd says:
    (link)

    Mock drafts! Hooray!

    I have a question bout a keeper league. I keep 10 guys and I am having a hard time figuring this out. I really. Only want to keep one shortstop, maybe 2, in order to have enough room to keep others. So who do I keep out of segura, Desmond, boegarts or Baez?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Todd: I have it as Desmond, Segura, Bogearts, Baez. I’d try to keep both Desmond and Segura, depending on how that ripple affects the rest of your list.

  10. steve b says:
    (link)

    couch manager site is very cluttered.I find it hard to draft and read things there.That being said I think that Eric and Zach from baseball proff had the best drafts.Seems like they got some value at every pick and not to many reaches .I like avisail Garcia in the 19th round and Rodney in the 21st round.Good late picks compared to others in those rounds

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @steve b: Yeah, wasn’t a huge fan of the site. It was stable, but no mobile ability whatsoever, and clutter central, like you said. However, the site operators were friendly, and are obviously open to input, so there’s that.

  11. Anthony says:
    (link)

    @Jay: When is Grey coming back with articles ?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Anthony: Monday. Miss him a lot, hunh.

  12. The tendency to derive sexual pleasure from one’s own humiliation. Whoa! While I won’t comment on being a sexual deviant, I can at least explain my thought process.

    I have to admit it was very difficult for me to make the Hanley pick at #8. I am generally a proponent of the “safe” pick in the first round. Adam Jones certainly does fill out a stat sheet, but the rest of the players available around #8 had me sick to my stomach. They all have bruises. I want no part of Braun coming off of his suspension. Votto appears unremarkable these days, there are other 1B options that can get you 25HR and 90RBI and they won’t cost a first round pick. You can safely pencil in 35-40 HR for Chris Davis, but do you also have to pencil in a .250 BA? Jay validly points out that you can live with that though when you’re possibly getting the league HR leader.

    With all the other risk in the first and second round, I’d rather cross my fingers that my gamble pays off at SS than OF or 1B. I don’t think people will think twice about Tulowitzki going in the mid-to-late first round. And I would much rather have Hanley than Tulo.

    Tulo’s injury history is looking like a fundamental issue with his legs. He’s only played 150+ games twice in his entire career. Read this article about Tulo and you won’t think the same about his prospects of ever staying healthy.

    While he’s struggled with injuries two of the last three years, I think Hanley’s problems fall more into the “bad luck” category than the “injury prone” category (or at least I’ve convinced myself of this). He consistently played 150ish games every year for the Marlins. I love the lineup he plays in. He seems to like it too. In 160 games with LAD he’s gone 30 HR and 17 SB. No doubt this is a risk. But if he does play in 150 games, I’m confident he’ll return first round value.

    With all this being said, if I could do this all over again. I would seriously consider Encarnacion even at #8 (because I agree with Jay’s comment that he appears to be a safe bet for 35+ HR and his other counting stats are very impressive).

  13. Evan Pasha says:
    (link)

    Anyone surprised at how high segura went? I was a lucky owner last year but am definitely expecting some serious regression.

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Evan Pasha: I’m okay with him there, it’s justifiable. But I’m with you on the regression, and wouldn’t do it personally.

  14. Chris says:
    (link)

    In an Ottoneu dynasty points league (kind of like OPS), I’ve got the chance to trade for Adam Jones ($25). Since he doesn’t walk, he’s less valuable in this league, but still a top 5 outfielder. The owner wants Austin Jackson ($11), Brandon Moss ($4), Chase Headley ($10) and Cory Luebke ($4). Is this a no-brainer? It would leave me without a solid 3B, but other than that no huge holes. Might be able to get a throw-in, but not sure. What do you guys think?

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Yeah, I ‘d still do it. In Otto leagues, roster compression can hold plenty of value.

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        @Jay: Ended up getting him to throw in a $7 Kuroda and pulled the trigger. Thanks for the advice Jay!

        • Jay

          Jay says:
          (link)

          @Chris: Nice, np.

  15. Zach says:
    (link)

    I think the only pick I’m not so sure about is the Choo one. I feel like 2013 was a career year as far as HRs, and a potential move to a less hitter-friendly ballpark could diminish the power even more. But by the way, Your style of writing is very entertaining! Nice read

    • Jay

      Jay says:
      (link)

      @Zach: I was a little iffy, but from the choices I had there, just went personal preference. And thanks!

Comments are closed.