Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: Getting Comfortable With Being Uncomfortable – Sorting Out The Pitcher-Injury Conundrum

The Moment of Zen:

In simplified form, much of Buddhism (and, by extension, Zen) revolves around control and presence in the now. As far as control, we don’t actually have much of it. We have the delusion (which Buddhism teaches is at the core of human suffering) of often thinking we have control over outcomes that we don’t actually have that much say over. Another cause of our suffering is wishing we had control over situations that we may, indeed, be able to impact, but not fully create our desired outcome. Having full presence in the now allows us to understand the situations we’re in, at least to the extent that we have the ability to do so. This includes understanding how our current condition leads us to feel certain emotions that might tempt us to behave in unwise ways.

In Buddhist teaching, liberation from suffering can only arrive by accepting the moment as it truly is, understanding the moment in a way that allows us to acknowledge the truth of what is actually happening, not by clinging to what we might wish or fear is occurring. Then, the practice pushes us to use our hard-won acceptance and understanding to help us move forward more wisely.

One thing I’ve learned about myself as I’ve worked to improve my own acceptance and understanding is I often convince myself in the moments of trial that I’m powerless. That I don’t have any way to impact what is happening. I confuse the fact that I can’t completely fix the problem with a belief that the problem is so much bigger than I am that I’m fully a victim and at its mercy. 

When I’m in a better place mentally and with my practice, I’m able to be reminded that lack of control of outcome doesn’t mean lack of choice. There are ways I can impact whatever is going on around me, maybe even ways I can change it. Yet recognizing I still can’t fix the issue or control the outcome. When I am thinking more clearly, I’m able to understand there’s a magic in having choices I can make, in being able to impact moments of struggle in at least some way, even if the outcome is ultimately beyond my control. In those moments, I realize that the wise and responsible move on my part would be to embrace the possibility of failure. If I want to change something, I have two very distinct options: 1) I can become paralyzed in my anxiety and lack of control, thereby resigning myself to fall victim to whatever is going to happen. 2) Or, I can use my limited power of making choices to impact the situation however I can. Making an active choice that turns out to be an incomplete solution, or even ends up in disaster, can be a learning experience. If, however, I refuse to act at all, therefore letting the problem consume me, I’m more likely to need some type of recovery experience. 

My wiser moments lead me toward the first option.

How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Pitchers are going to get injured. It’s a fact (OK, maybe it doesn’t hold true 100% of the time, but you get the point). As humans, our bodies are capable of lifting an object over our heads, allowing us to unleash the object with velocity, spin, and direction, but that doesn’t mean our bodies like doing that action. I am no scientist, but I suspect our ability to throw is an evolutionary tool. It benefitted us to be able to raise some sort of weapon (maybe a spear) into a throwing position and unleash the object in the direction of a predator coming upon us or some sort of prey we hoped to eat. Our shoulder and elbow joints allowed for this movement, so our species had one more way to help extend its existence on earth. But maybe the forces guiding evolutionary need had not considered that we would take this defense mechanism and create a game built around it. While our shoulders and elbows have likely adapted over time to the new demands we are asking of them, the adaptation is having trouble keeping up with the fact that we keep asking for more. We no longer want our shoulders and elbows to help us survive; now, we want more velocity, more spin – so we can win.

All that to say, the craft of pitching is challenging the limits of the human body. So if a pitcher is good, he is probably more likely to get injured. It’s a truth of our game. 

Another truth of our game is that if we don’t have good pitching, especially K pitchers, then we likely aren’t going to be competitive in real baseball or, more importantly for the purpose of this article, in fantasy. Perhaps there are GB% leagues out there (which actually sounds kind of fascinating, now that I think of it). In those leagues, velocity might not be as valued because pitchers who are able to keep the ball down, run their pitches to the batters’ hands, and use heavy downward spin are the ones who can consistently get the ball on the ground. If you play in a league like that, I’d love to know about it. And why the league was formed in the first place.

In the most popular fantasy games – standard roto, points, best balls – Ks are key. So, guess what? That pitcher you’re trying to avoid because he has “injury concerns,” yeah, you probably need him on your team. Because, news flash: the pitchers who can help us the most throw the ball hard. Really hard. Inhumanly hard. 

For an example, when I went looking at what pitchers are in the top 100 ADP of Online Championships over the past few weeks, here is what I found:

* Avg velo based on player’s 4-seam fastball unless otherwise indicated

** Likely drafted more for his hitting

Name in Bold: Avg velo below 96 mph

+ Avg velo 96+, but under 20% K-BB%

++Avg velo below 96 AND K-BB% under 20%

I suspect you’re noticing the same trends I am. Of the pitchers in top-100 ADP, only 16 have an avg FB velo below 96 mph. There are only 8 players on the list whose K-BB% is under 20%. Of those 8 players, 5 of them have an avg FB velo below 96 mph. The velo and K-BB% connection is a clear correlation, and I would bet there’s some causation there as well.

Guys who throw hard are more likely to pitch at an elite level. Guys who have nasty stuff are more likely to pitch at an elite level. Guys who throw hard and have nasty stuff get paid a lot of $$ and populate the ADP list above. But even MLB brass acknowledge that velocity and spin are likely major factors in injuries. And let’s face it – MLB brass refuses to acknowledge much of anything that might make it look like baseball itself (especially at the MLB level) is the negative factor involved in basically anything.

To make my point further, based on Grey’s preseason projections and auction values, here are the pitchers he puts in his top 100 overall players:

Each of the RPs who made it to Grey’s list is on the list of 96+ mph velo. Both Helsley and Estevez, who were on the ADP list but not in Grey’s top 100, have lower K-BB%s, both well under 20%. 

Of the SPs on Grey’s list but not in the top 100 ADP, he’s going bold in identifying major outliers: Each of the pitchers has a velo below 96 mph and a K-BB% well under 20%. But each one is a potentially elite option in WHIP, and I’d be willing to bet their Stuff+ rates quite well (I’ve thrown enough stats at you for one article, so that connection will have to wait)

The Big Finish:

To conclude after such a ridiculous amount of data, let’s face it: velo and spin are what we’re chasing.  

Oh yeah, we also want to avoid injury landmines when it comes to pitching. So that means we shouldn’t draft anyone throwing 96+ or using too much spin. Good luck finding those guys.

In a draft, we can allow ourselves to be overwhelmed by the fact that if we want to win, we have to draft pitchers who, quite likely, will get hurt during the season. And some of the injuries will be season-ending, hurting our chances to win our leagues. And we can’t control which guys are going to get hurt. Almost every pitcher we might really want is a walking time bomb. Sometimes, we’re going to lose due to factors we simply cannot control. 

I am choosing to control what I can: K-BB% drives my interest in pitchers, and I want the highest numbers I can get because those guys tend to be the most impactful to my team. I can’t control whether this choice will blow up in my face. But I want to win, and I’m willing to bet I’ll win more often by taking the risk than I will if I play it safe. So I accept this all might go horribly, but I think I might just go draft some time bombs. Has anyone seen Jacob deGrom?

Until next week. –ADHamley