For more borderline players, however, if you’re anything like me, you probably watch those guys closely. When they are hot streaks, you love them. And when they go through slumps, it feels like they are single-handedly destroying your team. Feeling the feels is probably fine, but if you’re like me, you probably tend to react, not just feel. If a borderline player is slumping, at the very least, he’s going to be benched. Quite possibly, he’s going to end up on waivers – our faith in those guys is only so big, and our patience with them is often virtually non-existent. But what happens when the guys bounce back? Because skilled players, even if they’re not star level players, almost always bounce back. For those of us who lose faith in borderline players, it’s easy to cut them and never look back. But there are plenty of times when, if we could take a moment to parse through the various “noise” of the long season, we might find that those borderline players who so upset us might be producing very strong numbers. Unfortunately, we don’t notice because we’ve cut them and moved on.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Author: ADHamley
Since 2002, husband to the most amazing woman I could imagine. Father to one in college and one high school -- smart, challenging kids who are, um, just like I am. Since 1999, high school English and philosophy teacher in the International Baccalaureate Programme (IB's spelling, not mine). Former tennis and quizbowl coach (with 13 state titles in QB -- woo hoo!). Baseball has been my data obsession since I was a kid, spending time organizing and memorizing baseball cards.
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It is easy to make decisions in fantasy (or in life, for that matter) that feel well considered and justified. And, in fact, they may well be thoughtful, rational, and right responses to previous situations. It’s not so easy to let go of those decisions once we have made them. It is less easy to see that situations may change. People may change. Skills may change. The better we are at going back and reconsidering our own figurative tunnels of thinking, quite likely the better we are at adapting and succeeding in fantasy baseball (or, again, in life, for that matter). Recently, I’ve had the opportunity to reevaluate a couple of players that I had previously soured on. Now, I’m rethinking my assessment of them and thought to put them up for your consideration as well.
Please, blog, may I have some more?If you’re looking for a future power source (you know, the “wow” stats), Cole Carrigg probably isn’t your guy. But he is quietly providing pretty much everything else. Carrigg is quite an athlete – back in my day (when dinosaurs roamed the earth and we walked uphill to school both ways), similar players would be referred to as “toolsy.” He can run, he can hit, he can sneak in some power due as much to his bat speed and launch angle as anything related to his exit velocity, and he can play the field. He also has a cannon for an arm.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I can only assume that Veen has gone through a similar process, and to do so, requires absolute absorption in getting better, wiser, healthier. And assuming that he has gone through the process, I couldn’t be more heartened to see how he’s benefitting – in his physical and (I suspect) mental health, but also his performance on the field.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Also, in baseball just as in life, the process of aging plays a part. With players who are getting older (in baseball years at least), decline is a real issue. As a result, as fantasy managers, being patient with aging players is harder than it is with young stars like Crow-Armstrong and Rice or players still in their prime like Alvarez. With older guys, when a long, bad streak rears its ugly head, it’s reasonable to wonder if the guy is just washed. Two such players who have piqued my concerns this season are Gleyber Torres (mostly due to injury) and Marcus Semien. Yet, both guys show up on the MLB leader board for runs scored over the last 15-game period. This led me to a deeper dive to find out if there’s value to be had. Here’s what I found.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Two players that come to mind right now are Kevin Gausman and Jeff Hoffman. Are these guys washed? Are they broken? It’s somewhat reasonable to think they might be. Gausman is old in baseball years (35 years old), so his peak is definitely behind him. And he has 4.38 ERA for this season while his K-rate is down below 9 K/9 (he is currently at 8.98 K/9, so just barely below). His BB% is creeping up, and his K-BB% is slowly declining. Hoffman, for his part, has been a near disaster at times this season, to the point you might be surprised to know his ERA is only 3.94. He lost the closer gig in Toronto to Louis Varland, and it’s hard to forget him giving up a tying homer in game 7 of the World Series to noted slugger Miguel Rojas (who has 60 career HRs in over 4,300 career PAs, which would be an average of just under 9 HR per 650 PA.
Please, blog, may I have some more?A recent case in point is Jake Bennett, pitcher for the Boston Red Sox. He is undoubtedly off to a great start to his MLB career, as he’s put together 59.1 innings of a 2.58 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He’s also collected 6 wins, which is fantasy gold but also probably more the result of the recent Red Sox hot streak than it is a stat that gives us an idea what to predict moving forward. But when readers and friends have asked me what I’ve thought of him, I’ve had to basically shrug my shoulders and say that I wasn’t sure yet.
Please, blog, may I have some more?For me, one of the most challenging things about fantasy is when I see things that others I respect in the game apparently don’t. For instance, if I’m in on a player while no one else seems to be, that makes me extremely anxious. Anytime there’s a FAAB run and I go spend a hefty chunk on a guy while the back-up bids for him are virtually nonexistent, I question myself. A lot. Anytime I roster a guy on as many of my teams as I can, then I check rostership percentages to see that he’s rostered in basically no other leagues, I question myself. A lot. In both cases, I start wondering: Option A – Did I see something everyone else didn’t? Option B – Or do I think I’m seeing something good that isn’t there?
Please, blog, may I have some more?Fantasy managers overlook lots of stats that actually correlate strongly to fantasy success. Offensively, instead of obsessing over homers, I’ve learned instead to look closely at plate appearances or at bats as a driver of opportunity, and then I’ve learned to identify runs scored as an indicator of untapped value. My thinking is simple – if a batter is getting to bat often, good things can happen, and if a player is scoring runs, that means he’s getting on base, which may necessarily lead to things like RBIs and batting average.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I am hopeful that no tigers are chasing you in your life, especially as it relates to fantasy baseball, though it may feel at times there are tigers all around. Although we play this game because it’s fun, we might often find ourselves focusing on the frustrations of the game and inconsistencies of players – or of our own decision-making – that create obstacles to enjoyment. Or we might find ourselves focusing on the impending – and seemingly guaranteed – lockout coming after this season that may, and quite likely will, cause a delay of the 2027 season, if not a full cancelation of it. Or we may find ourselves frustrated by MLB’s non-consumer-friendly television deals, or problems with the MLB app, or exasperation with the fact that our favorite team’s ownership group won’t pony up the money needed to compete.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I may have mentioned once or twice by now: Fantasy is a game a failure. We cannot predict human behavior 100% of the time, so our predictions about players are going to be wrong. Often. The best fantasy players aren’t necessarily good at predicting what players will do; they are simply less bad at it than the rest of us are. The best fantasy players are also likely less reactive to their analytical misses, able to respond and adjust accordingly, while the rest of us are still yelling at ourselves for our misses – or, even worse, blaming players for how they have failed us. The best fantasy players are able to acknowledge their analysis was wrong and quickly begin the process of rebuilding analysis to help moving forward.
Please, blog, may I have some more?A third reasonable question might be, “Is the player currently performing?” Baseball is a game of streaks, so it shouldn’t be a disqualifier if a player is currently underperforming, but the fact is Shaw is doing exactly the types of things we’d like to see a FAB pickup do. In the six games (including five started games) he’s appeared in since June 13th, Shaw has 25 PA and is 7 of 22 (.318 BA) with 2 triples, 1 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, and 1 HBP while maintaining an 8% BB% with only a 20% K%. Obviously, the sample is small, but in fantasy, quick decisions have to be made, leading us as fantasy managers to need to react to small samples.
Please, blog, may I have some more?