It’s hard to figure out who Merrill is. Sometimes, he looks like the touted prospect who hit the majors in stride and became an immediate impact player. Sometimes, he looks like he might not belong on a baseball field. His surface stats to begin 2026 show a good example of both: he’s hitting a measly .224 with a pitiful .288 OBP and even more pitiful .361 SLG%. That looks bad. He also has 4 HR, 22 R, 18 RBI, and 7 SB. Extrapolated to 650 PAs, Merrill’s pace comes out to 16 HR, 88 R, 72 RBI, and 28 SB.
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Author: ADHamley
Since 2002, husband to the most amazing woman I could imagine. Father to one in college and one high school -- smart, challenging kids who are, um, just like I am. Since 1999, high school English and philosophy teacher in the International Baccalaureate Programme (IB's spelling, not mine). Former tennis and quizbowl coach (with 13 state titles in QB -- woo hoo!). Baseball has been my data obsession since I was a kid, spending time organizing and memorizing baseball cards.
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In the spirit of celebrating my grandmother’s memory and not falling prey to the suffering impermanence can bring, this week I’ll take a look at a couple of players who are performing above expectations this year. Two players come to mind in particular, Nolan Arenado and Miguel Vargas Jr., as they’ve been much more valuable to fantasy teams than I expected, and on a personal level, I find myself cheering for these guys and personally encouraged by their comeback stories.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The analysts I consistently read and listen to are the ones who are willing to go back and discuss what they missed, as well as what they got right. Those analysts are the ones who have my confidence that they’ll both be good and keep getting better. So, to that end, I’ll take my own medicine: today’s practice in Wise Effort will be taking an honest look at where I’ve been right and wrong, with one player on each side.
Please, blog, may I have some more?This week, I attempt to turn a disinterested eye to Garrett Crochet. In my drafts, I often found myself picking between 11 and 15, meaning that my player choices once my pick came up usually included hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker, and Francisco Lindor. I’m high on all 3 of those guys, so I was happy to choose one of them. But I had a late pick in many of my drafts, well over 50% of the leagues I’m in, so I didn’t feel like I should draft the same guys every time. That led me to look more seriously at late RD1 pitchers than I have in the past, and Crochet was the stud pitcher most often available in the late 1st. Let’s just say I have a number of Crochet shares. And that hasn’t been great to start the season, as the pitcher I expected to be so good has been anything but.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In the world of fantasy baseball, we are inundated with data. Those of us who enjoy the data have a much better chance of becoming consistently competitive in this game. Eventually, we have to learn how to predict player breakouts or collapses so that we can take advantage of them. Perhaps instinct will allow us to make those predictions to some extent, but probably not to compete with other really good fantasy players. To do that, we likely have to get comfortable with the parsing of the data.
Please, blog, may I have some more?But we are so desperate for baseball by the time opening day rolls around that we can convince ourselves that this minute sample is meaningful, so you’ll see plenty of fantasy managers overreacting to player starts. Sometimes, the best response we can have to a fellow manager’s meltdown over a player is, “Is that so?” If we can maintain equanimity in these first few weeks while others around us panic, maybe there is value to be had through trades or, in some situations where managers have really gone on tilt, through the waiver wire.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The reality, of course, is that 3 or 4 days is such a small percentage of a 6 month season that, barring some significant injury that happens during the first weekend, come September we likely won’t remember those things now causing us such angst. And the same goes for our early-season successes – if you look hard enough, you’ll probably find your team also has players off to a great start. But as with bad play, good play over such a small sample is quite likely meaningless in the long run.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Where I find the Four Opponent Powers most useful in fantasy is probably in discussions with ourselves. As I have suggested in multiple articles, we tend to be our own worst critics, a tendency that almost certainly isn’t constructive in any way. Another potential use of the purification practice is when we are wrong – which happens a lot when creating draft strategy, analyzing players, and coming up with FAAB bids.
Please, blog, may I have some more?When it comes to fantasy baseball, perhaps our “virtuous” actions are the little parts of the grind – the FAAB, the examining underlying data, the listening to podcasts obsessively (or is that just me). When it comes to actual baseball, perhaps the “virtuous” actions are the little details that players work to correct to take a weakness and turn it into a strength. In both cases, the likely karmic consequence will be increased competitiveness, possibly more money, and a level of contentment with the commitment to getting better.
Please, blog, may I have some more?When I first entered the “high stakes” fantasy world, I did so with a core belief that I could succeed. But my practice for the first few years indicated that larger than my thought that I could be a good player was a fear that I would fail spectacularly.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Pitchers are going to get injured. It’s a fact (OK, maybe it doesn’t hold true 100% of the time, but you get the point). As humans, our bodies are capable of lifting an object over our heads, allowing us to unleash the object with velocity, spin, and direction, but that doesn’t mean our bodies like doing that action.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In facing the ADP dilemma, one way the Remembrances help me is by helping balance my expectations – and hopes – for how I will perform with an accepting look at how I am performing. Instead of stressing over what my opponents might do, I now understand to simply respond the best way I can to whatever they do. I no longer feel as compelled to freak out over what draft pick someone in my draft might snipe from me, or about how badly a player I liked might underperform my expectations. I can only really control how I respond to whatever ends up occurring. So, drafting has become a new, easier, much more enjoyable process as long as I stay focused on the is instead of the should be. The way I try to follow the is in drafts is fairly simple.
Please, blog, may I have some more?