A recent case in point is Jake Bennett, pitcher for the Boston Red Sox. He is undoubtedly off to a great start to his MLB career, as he’s put together 59.1 innings of a 2.58 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. He’s also collected 6 wins, which is fantasy gold but also probably more the result of the recent Red Sox hot streak than it is a stat that gives us an idea what to predict moving forward. But when readers and friends have asked me what I’ve thought of him, I’ve had to basically shrug my shoulders and say that I wasn’t sure yet.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Author: ADHamley
Since 2002, husband to the most amazing woman I could imagine. Father to one in college and one high school -- smart, challenging kids who are, um, just like I am. Since 1999, high school English and philosophy teacher in the International Baccalaureate Programme (IB's spelling, not mine). Former tennis and quizbowl coach (with 13 state titles in QB -- woo hoo!). Baseball has been my data obsession since I was a kid, spending time organizing and memorizing baseball cards.
Read some of ADHamley's 54 posts
For me, one of the most challenging things about fantasy is when I see things that others I respect in the game apparently don’t. For instance, if I’m in on a player while no one else seems to be, that makes me extremely anxious. Anytime there’s a FAAB run and I go spend a hefty chunk on a guy while the back-up bids for him are virtually nonexistent, I question myself. A lot. Anytime I roster a guy on as many of my teams as I can, then I check rostership percentages to see that he’s rostered in basically no other leagues, I question myself. A lot. In both cases, I start wondering: Option A – Did I see something everyone else didn’t? Option B – Or do I think I’m seeing something good that isn’t there?
Please, blog, may I have some more?Fantasy managers overlook lots of stats that actually correlate strongly to fantasy success. Offensively, instead of obsessing over homers, I’ve learned instead to look closely at plate appearances or at bats as a driver of opportunity, and then I’ve learned to identify runs scored as an indicator of untapped value. My thinking is simple – if a batter is getting to bat often, good things can happen, and if a player is scoring runs, that means he’s getting on base, which may necessarily lead to things like RBIs and batting average.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I am hopeful that no tigers are chasing you in your life, especially as it relates to fantasy baseball, though it may feel at times there are tigers all around. Although we play this game because it’s fun, we might often find ourselves focusing on the frustrations of the game and inconsistencies of players – or of our own decision-making – that create obstacles to enjoyment. Or we might find ourselves focusing on the impending – and seemingly guaranteed – lockout coming after this season that may, and quite likely will, cause a delay of the 2027 season, if not a full cancelation of it. Or we may find ourselves frustrated by MLB’s non-consumer-friendly television deals, or problems with the MLB app, or exasperation with the fact that our favorite team’s ownership group won’t pony up the money needed to compete.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I may have mentioned once or twice by now: Fantasy is a game a failure. We cannot predict human behavior 100% of the time, so our predictions about players are going to be wrong. Often. The best fantasy players aren’t necessarily good at predicting what players will do; they are simply less bad at it than the rest of us are. The best fantasy players are also likely less reactive to their analytical misses, able to respond and adjust accordingly, while the rest of us are still yelling at ourselves for our misses – or, even worse, blaming players for how they have failed us. The best fantasy players are able to acknowledge their analysis was wrong and quickly begin the process of rebuilding analysis to help moving forward.
Please, blog, may I have some more?A third reasonable question might be, “Is the player currently performing?” Baseball is a game of streaks, so it shouldn’t be a disqualifier if a player is currently underperforming, but the fact is Shaw is doing exactly the types of things we’d like to see a FAB pickup do. In the six games (including five started games) he’s appeared in since June 13th, Shaw has 25 PA and is 7 of 22 (.318 BA) with 2 triples, 1 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, and 1 HBP while maintaining an 8% BB% with only a 20% K%. Obviously, the sample is small, but in fantasy, quick decisions have to be made, leading us as fantasy managers to need to react to small samples.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I tend to firmly make up my mind about certain gaming strategies and player profiles when I play fantasy. In one way, my decisive nature is helpful – I know what I want when I draft a team or sit down to go through FAB, so I can create a plan for obtaining it. But the obvious shortcoming is once I decide a player doesn’t meet the kind of profile I like, I tend to overlook him from that point on. Which of course causes me to miss out on players who are good in ways that I don’t always notice or necessarily understand.
Please, blog, may I have some more?This season’s line for Valdez is enough to inspire a rage drop: in 67.2 IP, he has damaged his fantasy managers by earning a 4.39 ERA (supported by a 4.34 xERA, 4.14 FIP, and 4.29 xFIP) and a 1.32 WHIP. His BB/9 is up to 3.33, not great. His K/9 is down to 7.18, also not great. His K% makes things look even worse, as he’s down to 18.3% from last year’s 23.3%, causing his K-BB% to drop from last year’s 14.8% to 9.8% in 2026.
Please, blog, may I have some more?So, if failure is such a large part of the game, both in baseball and in fantasy, why are we so quick to give up on players who have had success previously but who have had recent failure? Players are complex, like the Ensō. They are humans with emotions and flaws and hot streaks. But as fantasy managers, we are vicious with those on our roster who show too much imperfection. “Rage” and “spite” drops happen all the time. And we are slow to forgive a player who we feel dragged our team down. On some level, our emotional response is completely understandable, maybe cathartic. But it’s also often kind of dumb.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Usually, that means I’ve picked out player options to turn to in case disaster strikes – which when it comes to pitching means I have a group of guys I can turn to for K help if any of my big guys go down. Well, my big guys are going down, so here are two players I’ve been paying attention to that are starting to pay dividends for my teams. Maybe they can pay dividends for you as well. One is for shallow league consideration while the other is for our deep league players, and coincidentally they are both Houston Astros.
Please, blog, may I have some more?It’s hard to figure out who Merrill is. Sometimes, he looks like the touted prospect who hit the majors in stride and became an immediate impact player. Sometimes, he looks like he might not belong on a baseball field. His surface stats to begin 2026 show a good example of both: he’s hitting a measly .224 with a pitiful .288 OBP and even more pitiful .361 SLG%. That looks bad. He also has 4 HR, 22 R, 18 RBI, and 7 SB. Extrapolated to 650 PAs, Merrill’s pace comes out to 16 HR, 88 R, 72 RBI, and 28 SB.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In the spirit of celebrating my grandmother’s memory and not falling prey to the suffering impermanence can bring, this week I’ll take a look at a couple of players who are performing above expectations this year. Two players come to mind in particular, Nolan Arenado and Miguel Vargas Jr., as they’ve been much more valuable to fantasy teams than I expected, and on a personal level, I find myself cheering for these guys and personally encouraged by their comeback stories.
Please, blog, may I have some more?