When I first entered the “high stakes” fantasy world, I did so with a core belief that I could succeed. But my practice for the first few years indicated that larger than my thought that I could be a good player was a fear that I would fail spectacularly.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Author: ADHamley
Since 2002, husband to the most amazing woman I could imagine. Father to one in college and one high school -- smart, challenging kids who are, um, just like I am. Since 1999, high school English and philosophy teacher in the International Baccalaureate Programme (IB's spelling, not mine). Former tennis and quizbowl coach (with 13 state titles in QB -- woo hoo!). Baseball has been my data obsession since I was a kid, spending time organizing and memorizing baseball cards.
Read some of ADHamley's 47 posts
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Pitchers are going to get injured. It’s a fact (OK, maybe it doesn’t hold true 100% of the time, but you get the point). As humans, our bodies are capable of lifting an object over our heads, allowing us to unleash the object with velocity, spin, and direction, but that doesn’t mean our bodies like doing that action.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In facing the ADP dilemma, one way the Remembrances help me is by helping balance my expectations – and hopes – for how I will perform with an accepting look at how I am performing. Instead of stressing over what my opponents might do, I now understand to simply respond the best way I can to whatever they do. I no longer feel as compelled to freak out over what draft pick someone in my draft might snipe from me, or about how badly a player I liked might underperform my expectations. I can only really control how I respond to whatever ends up occurring. So, drafting has become a new, easier, much more enjoyable process as long as I stay focused on the is instead of the should be. The way I try to follow the is in drafts is fairly simple.
Please, blog, may I have some more?If the art of archery isn’t actually about the components of the task, then I’ll assume for the sake of argument that the “art” of fantasy baseball is also not about the components. That, of course, doesn’t mean that player analysis isn’t important, or draft strategy, or understanding underlying data, or trying to spot ADP values. All of those things are, at least in my eyes, essential for success in this game. But I also am aware that I overthink my analysis, strategy, the underlying data, and especially what I perceive as ADP values.
Please, blog, may I have some more?My personal dukkha comes in the form of one Michael Harris II. I am sure Harris is a lovely person. I love watching him play, especially the field. And I have found his hit tool enticing for years, so in 2025, I would have been the one in your draft picking him in the 3rd round. The projections said the pick wasn’t unreasonable, he smokes the ball (HH% of over 45% for his career), and he has a surprisingly good Z-Contact% (upper 80%-range) for such a free swinger. Harris’s 30 HR / 30 SB upside is undeniable and easy to chase. Many of us in the fantasy community have also been guilty of expecting Harris’s impressive hit tool to continue to develop to the point that he is a near superstar level. I still believe that player is in there.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Failure is a part of fantasy, and no matter how much analysis or knowledge we put into our draft, players are going to underperform what we thought they would. When this happens, we then must decide if the player is worth continuing to play or even roster; maybe we need to cut our losses while we can and find replacements. But underperformance can, and often is, a temporary blip, not something that must be immediately reacted to.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: Anguish
January 24, 2026 | 2026 Fantasy Baseball | 4 Commentsby: ADHamley
This game is an exercise in self-inflicted suffering. We make choices for our drafts or lineups, and when those choices don’t work, we suffer (maybe not relative to real life challenges, but still…). But baseball is stupid hard to predict, so we must come to terms with the fact that many of our choices in this game will be flat-out wrong. The job is to make more right ones than wrong ones. And sometimes that means going back and making the same decisions we made last year, this time with hope of a different outcome.
Please, blog, may I have some more? How Likely Is Jeremy Pena To Repeat His 2025 Value?
December 1, 2025 | 2026 Fantasy Baseball | 2 Commentsby: ADHamley
I’m not sure what I expected before diving into Pena’s underlying data, but with a closer look, the reasons for the gains weren’t obvious to see. I’ve tried to make sense of the data below, and ultimately, while it’s possible we’re staring at a bunch of statistical noise, I see enough here to think some real growth may have occurred in Pena’s game.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Should We Buy The Dip On Albies & Volpe After Their Down Year?
September 18, 2025 | 2025 Fantasy Baseball, Players by Position, Second Basemen, Shortstops | 1 Commentby: ADHamley
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve heard lots of industry chatter about Ozzie Albies and Anthony Volpe. Both have had disappointing seasons, and when established names underperform their draft price in any given season, I’m usually ready to jump in to draft them at the next season’s discount. Prior to this week, though, I wasn’t completely sure how I felt about Albies and Volpe for next year, so I decided to take a closer look at their numbers. Here’s what I found.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In Roto, those underlying stats are extremely helpful when I’m in the middle of a season, and I know which categories I need to bolster in order to get the best overall stats across all 10 categories. But what about during draft season? There are no standings then, so we don’t have the ability to look at the SB category and see that we’re only 4 SB away from picking up another point in the standings. In season, when we see a category where it’s possible, even likely to gain points, it’s an easy decision to go get someone from the waiver wire who can get us there without hurting us in other categories. But in the preseason, we are deciding between any number of hypothetical rosters. How do we decide between two players of similar projected $ value?
Please, blog, may I have some more?The last time I put out a rankings list was nearly 2 months ago as we were coming out of the All-Star Break. At that time, I was still hesitant to fully buy in when it came to players who have had unexpectedly good or bad seasons. Well, we’re running out of games to play, so maybe it’s time I come around on some players. As a result, you’ll see some fairly significant movement up and down this week’s ranks.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Today, I’ll take a look at another tendency of drafters: a willingness to overpay for a big year, or, even worse, for a player in a bounceback year. To that end, I’ll discuss 4 players who have either outplayed their last season draft prices by significant margins or, at the very least, demonstrated a skill (or two) that drafters are often willing to pay up for.
Please, blog, may I have some more?