I may have mentioned once or twice by now: Fantasy is a game a failure. We cannot predict human behavior 100% of the time, so our predictions about players are going to be wrong. Often. The best fantasy players aren’t necessarily good at predicting what players will do; they are simply less bad at it than the rest of us are. The best fantasy players are also likely less reactive to their analytical misses, able to respond and adjust accordingly, while the rest of us are still yelling at ourselves for our misses – or, even worse, blaming players for how they have failed us. The best fantasy players are able to acknowledge their analysis was wrong and quickly begin the process of rebuilding analysis to help moving forward.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Author: ADHamley
Since 2002, husband to the most amazing woman I could imagine. Father to one in college and one high school -- smart, challenging kids who are, um, just like I am. Since 1999, high school English and philosophy teacher in the International Baccalaureate Programme (IB's spelling, not mine). Former tennis and quizbowl coach (with 13 state titles in QB -- woo hoo!). Baseball has been my data obsession since I was a kid, spending time organizing and memorizing baseball cards.
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A third reasonable question might be, “Is the player currently performing?” Baseball is a game of streaks, so it shouldn’t be a disqualifier if a player is currently underperforming, but the fact is Shaw is doing exactly the types of things we’d like to see a FAB pickup do. In the six games (including five started games) he’s appeared in since June 13th, Shaw has 25 PA and is 7 of 22 (.318 BA) with 2 triples, 1 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI, 2 BB, and 1 HBP while maintaining an 8% BB% with only a 20% K%. Obviously, the sample is small, but in fantasy, quick decisions have to be made, leading us as fantasy managers to need to react to small samples.
Please, blog, may I have some more?I tend to firmly make up my mind about certain gaming strategies and player profiles when I play fantasy. In one way, my decisive nature is helpful – I know what I want when I draft a team or sit down to go through FAB, so I can create a plan for obtaining it. But the obvious shortcoming is once I decide a player doesn’t meet the kind of profile I like, I tend to overlook him from that point on. Which of course causes me to miss out on players who are good in ways that I don’t always notice or necessarily understand.
Please, blog, may I have some more?This season’s line for Valdez is enough to inspire a rage drop: in 67.2 IP, he has damaged his fantasy managers by earning a 4.39 ERA (supported by a 4.34 xERA, 4.14 FIP, and 4.29 xFIP) and a 1.32 WHIP. His BB/9 is up to 3.33, not great. His K/9 is down to 7.18, also not great. His K% makes things look even worse, as he’s down to 18.3% from last year’s 23.3%, causing his K-BB% to drop from last year’s 14.8% to 9.8% in 2026.
Please, blog, may I have some more?So, if failure is such a large part of the game, both in baseball and in fantasy, why are we so quick to give up on players who have had success previously but who have had recent failure? Players are complex, like the Ensō. They are humans with emotions and flaws and hot streaks. But as fantasy managers, we are vicious with those on our roster who show too much imperfection. “Rage” and “spite” drops happen all the time. And we are slow to forgive a player who we feel dragged our team down. On some level, our emotional response is completely understandable, maybe cathartic. But it’s also often kind of dumb.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Usually, that means I’ve picked out player options to turn to in case disaster strikes – which when it comes to pitching means I have a group of guys I can turn to for K help if any of my big guys go down. Well, my big guys are going down, so here are two players I’ve been paying attention to that are starting to pay dividends for my teams. Maybe they can pay dividends for you as well. One is for shallow league consideration while the other is for our deep league players, and coincidentally they are both Houston Astros.
Please, blog, may I have some more?It’s hard to figure out who Merrill is. Sometimes, he looks like the touted prospect who hit the majors in stride and became an immediate impact player. Sometimes, he looks like he might not belong on a baseball field. His surface stats to begin 2026 show a good example of both: he’s hitting a measly .224 with a pitiful .288 OBP and even more pitiful .361 SLG%. That looks bad. He also has 4 HR, 22 R, 18 RBI, and 7 SB. Extrapolated to 650 PAs, Merrill’s pace comes out to 16 HR, 88 R, 72 RBI, and 28 SB.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In the spirit of celebrating my grandmother’s memory and not falling prey to the suffering impermanence can bring, this week I’ll take a look at a couple of players who are performing above expectations this year. Two players come to mind in particular, Nolan Arenado and Miguel Vargas Jr., as they’ve been much more valuable to fantasy teams than I expected, and on a personal level, I find myself cheering for these guys and personally encouraged by their comeback stories.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The analysts I consistently read and listen to are the ones who are willing to go back and discuss what they missed, as well as what they got right. Those analysts are the ones who have my confidence that they’ll both be good and keep getting better. So, to that end, I’ll take my own medicine: today’s practice in Wise Effort will be taking an honest look at where I’ve been right and wrong, with one player on each side.
Please, blog, may I have some more?This week, I attempt to turn a disinterested eye to Garrett Crochet. In my drafts, I often found myself picking between 11 and 15, meaning that my player choices once my pick came up usually included hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker, and Francisco Lindor. I’m high on all 3 of those guys, so I was happy to choose one of them. But I had a late pick in many of my drafts, well over 50% of the leagues I’m in, so I didn’t feel like I should draft the same guys every time. That led me to look more seriously at late RD1 pitchers than I have in the past, and Crochet was the stud pitcher most often available in the late 1st. Let’s just say I have a number of Crochet shares. And that hasn’t been great to start the season, as the pitcher I expected to be so good has been anything but.
Please, blog, may I have some more?In the world of fantasy baseball, we are inundated with data. Those of us who enjoy the data have a much better chance of becoming consistently competitive in this game. Eventually, we have to learn how to predict player breakouts or collapses so that we can take advantage of them. Perhaps instinct will allow us to make those predictions to some extent, but probably not to compete with other really good fantasy players. To do that, we likely have to get comfortable with the parsing of the data.
Please, blog, may I have some more?But we are so desperate for baseball by the time opening day rolls around that we can convince ourselves that this minute sample is meaningful, so you’ll see plenty of fantasy managers overreacting to player starts. Sometimes, the best response we can have to a fellow manager’s meltdown over a player is, “Is that so?” If we can maintain equanimity in these first few weeks while others around us panic, maybe there is value to be had through trades or, in some situations where managers have really gone on tilt, through the waiver wire.
Please, blog, may I have some more?