Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: Taking A Moment To Hear The Birds Chirp – Moments Of Presence Despite Our Self-Defeating Tendencies

The Moment of Zen:

This morning was the first day in 15 days that I was able to sit on my porch and not have anywhere I had to go; between either having to work or be on the road for travel (graduations, funerals, moving kids), the last 2+ have felt like a pure sprint. And this coming week won’t be any calmer. I suspect my weeks on the run look pretty much like everyone else’s as well. Part of the American experiment seems to be focused on being as busy as physically and mentally possible. Are you in the same trap? I know I’m guilty of being part of that race meant to defeat the boundaries of time – a race, of course, that I can’t even hope to win.

If I were truly good at practicing the things I write about in this space, I would have found ways each day of my over-busy period (the last 15 days, the last 25 years, you name it) to be present, even if just for a few minutes. To hear the sounds around me. To try to appreciate the good parts and the bad parts of the moments. To acknowledge how I’m feeling about whatever is going on in front of me: Funerals of loved ones and graduations of your children apparently bring emotions with them – who knew? But did I take time to feel the feels? Can I plead the fifth? 

Have I been able to take those moments to be fully present that the Buddhist path would ask of me? Let’s just say it’s been hit or miss – frankly, mostly miss. Clearly, I have work to do to be able to follow the Eightfold Path to the extent I’d like, to the extent that I know would help me. And that very need is part of why I write these columns – the writing gives me a routine and scheduled reminder of what I *should* be doing.

I live in a suburban area with a reasonably busy road in front of my house. Meaning, if I wanted to, I could probably focus on nothing but the traffic passing in front of my house. But I’m fortunate enough also to have a big enough yard – with trees and flowers and other plants, fairly well cut off from the sounds and sights of the traffic – that if I really wanted to, I could focus on nothing but natural beauty. Usually, I am somewhere in between the two worlds: I’m aware of the street and its busy-ness while also able to absorb some peace and comfort by the separation my little bit of suburban heaven provides me.

This morning, for once, I did better. Either the birds were out en masse, or I was better aware of the fact that they were active (probably the second option). For once, I was able to distinguish between the variety of bird calls filling the air. I was able to locate the birds in the trees and watch them at work. I’m not sure how long I was locked into this wonderful appreciation of these simple sights and sounds that are, quite likely, always there if I were to simply look and listen. This morning I did, only after some unknown number of minutes becoming aware that I hadn’t thought of the road once. For those minutes, I was finally on the path I write about in this space. And it helped. Perhaps I could learn from that.

How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?

How do we, as fantasy players, approach fantasy baseball? Do we approach it as a burden (a burden that we have willingly chosen to take on)? Do we approach it as something that gives us stress and turmoil? These two approaches both seem self-defeating, yet I know that many of us treat our chosen game as a source of anxiety and heartache. As I have mentioned before, many of my teams are off to a slow enough start this year that the feelings of anxiety and burden and stress have admittedly called to me a number of times. 

What if, instead of approaching the game in such an emotionally draining way, we approached the game as a simple fulfillment of something we deeply enjoy? I’m nearly 50 years old, and I get to write about a kid’s game. And people pay me for it. And other people read my writing. And even send me feedback about my writing. And the feedback is positive. How cool is that? Writing this article isn’t work – it’s pleasure.

As part of the pleasure this “job” brings me, I’m going to write this week about a guy whose game I just really enjoy. He was brought up to me by a reader, so the full circle of my writing, baseball, and fantasy baseball all get to work together for this short analysis. I suppose for a moment or two, I’ll be able to say I’m truly present in this game we love – and for the right reasons.

Jackson Merrill

It’s hard to figure out who Merrill is. Sometimes, he looks like the touted prospect who hit the majors in stride and became an immediate impact player. Sometimes, he looks like he might not belong on a baseball field. His surface stats to begin 2026 show a good example of both: he’s hitting a measly .224 with a pitiful .288 OBP and even more pitiful .361 SLG%. That looks bad. He also has 4 HR, 22 R, 18 RBI, and 7 SB. Extrapolated to 650 PAs, Merrill’s pace comes out to 16 HR, 88 R, 72 RBI, and 28 SB. That isn’t a player most of us would consider cutting from our roster except in the most shallow of leagues – and even then, I’d be hesitant to drop someone with those kinds of counting stats. But Merrill is killing you if your league really emphasizes batting average, OBP, or even OPS (his is an unimpressive .648).

So, is Merrill the guy with the solid counting stats or the guy with the miserable ratio stats? I tend to think he’s the first guy, but he’s unsure how to maintain consistency in his approach – his talent and game will shine through more clearly once he figures out who he is and how to be that guy at each at-bat.

What makes me think so? Essentially, every single measurable tool in his arsenal of underlying stats. Here is the image on his current Statcast Savant page:

Jackson Merrill’s numbers show he’s probably just fine.

Here’s a sampling: His 47.7% HH% is in the 80th percentile, his 10.2% Barrel% in the 65th percentile, and his 73.3 mph bat speed is in the 67th percentile. His sprint speed (28.6 ft/s) is 88th percentile. His defensive range (one of his weakest tools) is above the 50th percentile mark, while his arm value and arm strength are 88th and 82nd percentile, respectively.

What does this mean? His defensive numbers are good, meaning that the Padres will almost certainly keep him in the lineup even if he struggles. And when he’s in the lineup, he hits the ball hard. And by the way, he does so without striking out at an excessive rate – his 24.7% K% is 34th percentile. 

What’s more, these impressive measurable stats are currently worse than they’ve been in his previous two seasons. Why do I think his worse numbers aren’t a bad thing? Because the dip appears to come down to the type of contact he’s making so far this year. He isn’t squaring the ball up as well as he has in the past, which I think largely explains why his BABIP is 30 points lower than last year’s and 36 points lower than 2024’s. This is largely showing up in the dip in LA (down nearly 3.5° from last year) and his increase in GB%, which is up a full 7% from 2025’s numbers, while his FB% is 6.5% lower than last year’s. Considering both his GB% (37.7% in ‘25, 35.9% in ‘24) and his FB% (40.1% in ‘25, 40.3% in ‘26) were relatively stable in his first two seasons but have big changes this year, I’m not too concerned his contact problems will continue. All of this is further confirmed by BaseballHQ’s quality of batted ball score (QBaB), which grades the quality of EV, LA°, and LA° variability in one score. In both 2024 and 2025, Merrill scored a BBb (so B-ratings for each of the 3 measurements). This year, his current QBaB is BCc, with the dips coming in, you guessed it, his launch angle and launch angle variability. 

If I were to have Jackson Merrill on my roster (and I do in quite a few leagues), I would honestly have zero worry about this player. He’s coming off injury in 2025, and it would stand to reason he needs time to get his timing back. Not only do I think Merrill will be fine, if I were to sense that another manager in my league has grown shaky in their confidence with the young guy, I’d be sending offers.

Enjoy your week of baseball, take some time to be present in the moment, and I’ll dip in again next week. Until then. –ADHamley