The Moment of Zen:
The sixth step in the Noble Eightfold Path is Wise Effort. As is the case with the other seven steps, Wise Effort is interdependent on other steps, so practicing it also requires Wise Understanding, Wise Intention, and Wise Action – and frankly, probably the other four steps too.
At the heart of Wise Effort, at least as I understand it, is a commitment to being honest with ourselves. In order to try to do things wisely, I must be aware of when, in the past, I’ve made wise decisions, and conversely, to be just as aware of those moments when my decisions have been unwise. Even bad. Maybe even mean or spiteful. This type of examination requires an unflinching look at ourselves as who we actually are, not who we wish we were – which is, of course, the hardest part.
I, like anyone else, would love to evaluate my decisions and actions with the kind of rose-colored glasses that allow me to be the hero of my own story. But let’s face it: While I have moments that give me some level of comfort, even pride, in my own actions and in who I am, I have plenty of times when I have failed my vision of what I want to be. To see only the good and ignore the bad is a good way to continue falling short with no real understanding of what might be needed to improve. Meaning, not a lot of Wise Effort is being practiced. And I have indeed taken that easier path to non-improvement – probably too many times to count. But maybe not today.
How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?
Last year, one of my readers made what was likely an offhand comment, but it’s one that has stuck with me – he said I was part of the “industry.” As in, the collection of analysts and players who give advice to other folks playing fantasy. Oddly enough, seeing that word – “industry” – was both flattering and kind of a rude awakening to me. It was flattering because, well, obviously, by submitting articles to a fantasy baseball website and having someone agree to publish them, I suppose that makes me part of the “industry.” And to be part of it had been a goal of mine.
But it was a rude awakening as well – because hearing that word, “industry,” is kind of like nails on a chalkboard to me. I don’t know why I find it so cringe-worthy, but I actually can’t say or write the word without including the quotation marks: the “industry.” Maybe there’s a pretentious feel to it. But I think my reaction probably stems from how so many analysts in the space assert their opinions as though whatever they say will be manna from the heavens to the readers (or listeners). And then, when the time comes to assess the calls they made, there is often quite a bit of self-back-patting to celebrate their good takes. I notice there are a lot fewer attempts to say, “Yikes, I missed that one.”
The analysts I consistently read and listen to are the ones who are willing to go back and discuss what they missed, as well as what they got right. Those analysts are the ones who have my confidence that they’ll both be good and keep getting better. So, to that end, I’ll take my own medicine: today’s practice in Wise Effort will be taking an honest look at where I’ve been right and wrong, with one player on each side.
The good – Michael Harris II:
I discussed Michael Harris II as an instance of my own personal “dukkha” – my experiences with him have been so remarkably frustrating, but I just haven’t been able to quit him. And, ultimately, despite his maddening inconsistency, I made the call that Harris should be drafted at his preseason draft price (which I usually saw between ADP 85 and 100) because in the end, his stats would bring profit. Just know that the process of getting there will probably also bring headaches and anxiety. Close your eyes, and put him in the lineup; then, check back in at the end of the season, and you’ll have .260 and 20 / 20 with respectable Rs and RBIs to boot.
So far this season, the headaches and anxiety have been missing – because Harris has been pretty awesome. His current numbers pace, extrapolated to 600 ABs, would leave him at a BA of .300+, 38 HRs, and 13 SB. His K% is well down from past seasons: down to 15.6% after exactly 20% each of the last 2 seasons. His BB% is up, double to last year’s rate, so it’s now back in line with his career, around 5%. He’s smoking the ball: a HH% of 56.6%, a 19.7% Barrel%, a career high 114.9 mph maxEV, a 94.4 mph EV (up 4 mph from 2025), and an EV90 (109.6 mph) currently ranked 15th highest among all hitters. Not too shabby. His bat speed is up by about a half mph, and he has his LD% up to his career level, after last year’s 2% drop off. Most importantly, perhaps, his Contact% is up to above 80% (81.2), and his Z-Contact% is well into the 90s. Things are looking really good.
All of that said:
This is the MH2 experience. He goes through white hot streaks, but I have no doubt the ridiculously cold streak will happen too. His O-Swing% is 41.3%. If not sure what that number means, it tells us he swings outside the strike zone more often than all but 13 other hitters, in the entire league. While he’s able to make contact with those out-of-zone pitches about half the time, there will come a period (or two or three) during the season where he just stops hitting altogether. The slow periods will come. And then the hot streaks will come as well. The MH2 experience.
With all of that in mind, I’m trying to keep my optimism for Harris’s season in check. Yes, his start has been fantastic, but I would still expect him to end up around a .260 BA, maybe 25 HR, and 18-20 steals. And those numbers would be significant profit over the draft price. BUT: If you don’t have Harris on your team, now is probably not the time to go get him in trade because it will cost you an arm and a leg. Wait for the virtually guaranteed slow period he’ll suffer through, then go get him at that point, and watch him heat back up in June or July. Pure profit.
Where was I wrong? – Brenton Doyle:
I was in on Brenton Doyle in so many leagues it’s just silly. Based on the power-speed combo he showed in 2024, I couldn’t resist his ADP 150 price during drafting season. And I talked about him in multiple articles, even on a podcast – I was a Doyle evangelist. If you listened to me and decided to draft him, I’m sorry to have helped you tank your offense for the first month.
Needless to say, Doyle has not returned value. His surface stats are downright awful: a .219 BA, 1 HR, and 2 RBI are frightening; considering he’s had 80 PAs to collect those numbers, those stats are a major hit to his fantasy managers’ stats. Doyle has actually contributed some bags – 6 SBs so far, and his 11 Rs are ok, so not everything is bleak. But, oof, his 35% K% is, well, yikes. His O-Swing% is up nearly 4%, showing he’s swinging with less discipline than in the past. Things look bad. So bad, in fact, that despite his defensive skills in CF, the Rockies are having trouble putting him in the lineup. And when they do play him, they have taken to subbing him for a pinch hitter when things get tense in the late innings. Not great.
I should have been more aware of his free-swinging tendencies, especially when he’s pressing. His career 28.5% CSW% is a good sign that slumps like this are going to be part of his game. And instead of thinking about the Michael Harris II resemblances in Doyle’s game, I was all in, with both feet (and many, many shares of him). If you haven’t dropped him in 12-team leagues and smaller, you’re braver than I. I’ve had to abandon ship except in 15-team leagues.
All of that said:
I wasn’t kidding when I compared him to MH2. Doyle is known for hot streaks, and we honestly have some good reason to think he has one coming soon.
Despite his O-Swing% increase, he’s actually improved his Contact% (73.5%, up from 72.4%), and his Z-Contact% is way up (92.7%, up from 84.1%). Do note that his low 70s Contact% makes clear that slumps can and will be a real thing for Doyle. But his hard-hit metrics give me reason to think we shouldn’t just forget about him as he sits on the waiver wire in our leagues. His HH% is still 37.8%, well down from the last 2 years’ numbers, but a number that shows he can do some damage. His EV is over 90 mph, and his EV 90 is a not-terrible 104.3 mph. He’s walking more often than in the past: his BB% is up to nearly 9%, currently a career high. And when he hits the ball, he’s getting hits (.341 BABIP).
It looks to me like it’s his quality of contact, or lack thereof, that’s killing him. His Squared-Up% is only 18.7%, good for 10th percentile. His Barrel% is 4.3%, all the way up to 21st percentile (which, of course, is still bad). His LA Sweet-Spot% is also bad: 27.7%, 17th percentile. But I don’t expect those numbers to stay this bad. Doyle’s Squared-Up% has been near or above the 50th percentile each of the last two seasons. He also has a career Barrel% of 9.9%, and he’s been closer to 11% each of the last two seasons, which has put him in the 65th percentile and above. And while I wouldn’t expect Doyle’s 2024 breakout season to be repeated (with its 81st percentile rank), I would expect him to get closer to last year’s 30th percentile; in fact, I would think he’ll go above that.
I understand if you’ve had to move on from Doyle, but maybe don’t move on too far. There’s still game there, and at some point, he’ll get hot.
Good luck as you practice Wise Effort and the unflinching self-examination it requires. It’s a helpful, humbling process. Now, I’m off to examine why I paid so much for Christian Scott in FAAB.
And until next week. –ADHamley
My wife thinks that your column is a must read. Thank you!