I was originally excited to focus on Baby Thor Mike Clevinger in my first post taking over the Two-Start Starters for M@, but the rainout on Thursday threw everything out of whack. So, I had to pivot and focus on what’s going on in Seattle. Enter Ariel Miranda and Sam Gaviglio.
Of the two starters for the Mariners right now, Miranda is the one to target. To be honest, neither one is likely to be a long-term fix for your rotation. Gaviglio is a 27-year old who has an ERA of 4.01 over seven seasons in the minor leagues, while Miranda is a 28-year old Cuban who had moderate success in the Cuban National Series and the minors. Both are scheduled to start two games next week for the Mariners.
At first glance, it would appear that Gaviglio is the tasty treat that a starter-needy fantasy owner should target. After all, he has the shiny 1.29 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Unfortunately, not only is that a very small sample size, but there are some pretty serious red flags. For starters, while he only gave up one run against the Nationals, he only struck out one batter in six innings. That shiny ERA is also aided by the fact that he actually gave up five runs, but just the one was earned. Against the White Sox in his previous start, he went five innings and only struck out two batters. In his two starts this season, he has thrown 11 innings and struck out just three batters.
But that’s not it, here is the bigger issue with Gaviglio. His ERA might be 1.29, but his FIP currently sits at 4.22. At 2.93, his FIP-to-ERA ratio is the highest of any of the 40+ two-start starters in week 9. Between his lack of strikeouts, his lackluster career in the minors, and his inflated FIP-to-ERA ratio, you better believe he is going to regress to the mean sooner rather than later. Ignore that ERA and stay away from Sammy G.
As for Miranda, I like him more and hate him less. While he doesn’t have the same sub-2.00 ERA as Gaviglio, he does have an 8.75 K/9, a less hideous .40 FIP-to-ERA, and a 5.77 K/9-to-BB/9 ratio. While he has had a couple of disastrous starts this season, he also has six starts in which he has given up two runs or fewer. You could do worse than Miranda as a two-starter starter. In fact, you could have Gaviglio. Both should be available in more than 75% of leagues. Despite the fact that the Mariners visit the Rockies next week, there are worse options for two-start starters…
Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.
THE BEST
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw LAD | @STL, @MIL | 2.70/2.81 | 9.04/1.00 |
| Chris Sale BOS | @CHW, @BAL | 2.89/1.79 | 8.49/2.43 |
| Jacob deGrom NYM | MIL, PIT | 4.27/3.42 | 12.29/3.72 |
THE REPLICAS
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Berrios MIN | HOU, @LAA | 0.64/2.15 | 9.14/1.66 |
| Sonny Gray OAK | @CLE, WAS | 4.76/4.99 | 12.45/1.73 |
| Michael Wacha STL | LAD, @CHC | 3.46/3.53 | 8.23/2.53 |
| Kyle Hendricks CHC | @SD, STL | 4.07/4.53 | 7.35/3.08 |
| Robbie Ray ARI | @PIT, @MIA | 4.14/4.24 | 11.04/4.92 |
| Luis Severino NYY | @BAL, @TOR | 3.72/3.76 | 9.98/2.29 |
THE STANDARDS
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Bauer CLE | OAK, @KC | 6.91/4.90 | 10.62/3.24 |
| Julio Teheran ATL | @LAA, @CIN | 5.84/5.47 | 6.83/4.07 |
| Charlie Morton HOU | @MIN, @TEX | 4.41/4.20 | 10.14/3.59 |
| Jose Quintana CHW | BOS, @DET | 4.02/4.06 | 8.76/3.50 |
| Ariel Miranda SEA | @COL, TB | 4.40/4.80 | 8.75/2.98 |
| Marcus Stroman TOR | CIN, NYY | 3.11/3.37 | 7.32/2.73 |
| Mike Leake STL | LAD, @CHC | 2.37/3.37 | 6.16/1.47 |
| Drew Pomeranz BOS | @CHW, @BAL | 5.11/4.55 | 10.66/3.79 |
| Ervin Santana MIN | HOU, @LAA | 1.80/4.29 | 6.43/3.47 |
THE KNOCKOFFS
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander DET | @KC, CHW | 4.75/4.20 | 8.78/4.23 |
| Jason Hammel KC | DET, CLE | 6.97/5.12 | 7.33/3.66 |
| Matt Garza MIL | @NYM, LAD | 3.15/3.67 | 6.94/1.54 |
| Edinson Volquez MIA | PHI, ARI | 5.08/5.02 | 8.29/5.59 |
| Chris Tillman BAL | NYY, BOS | 3.93/3.22 | 6.64/3.98 |
| Jesse Hahn OAK | @CLE, WAS | 4.34/2.98 | 7.43/3.26 |
| Erasmo Ramirez TB | @TEX, @SEA | 3.21/3.51 | 6.25/1.50 |
| Tanner Roark WAS | @SF, @OAK | 4.86/4.48 | 7.71/3.24 |
| Dylan Bundy BAL | NYY, BOS | 3.62/4.14 | 6.40/2.64 |
| Jeremy Hellickson PHI | @MIA, SF | 4.16/5.53 | 3.62/2.14 |
| Sam Gaviglio SEA | @COL, TB | 1.29/4.22 | 4.85/2.08 |
| Tyler Anderson COL | SEA, @SD | 6.26/5.37 | 9.19/3.00 |
THE 
| Player | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarred Cosart SD | CHC, COL | 3.00/4.05 | 4.50/6.19 |
| Randall Delgado ARI | @PIT, @MIA | 3.82/3.98 | 7.92/1.76 |
| Masahiro Tanaka NYY | @BAL, @TOR | 7.03/6.31 | 7.31/2.81 |
| Ricky Nolasco LAA | ATL, MIN | 4.14/5.64 | 7.96/2.50 |
| Lisalverto Bonilla CIN | @TOR, ATL | 6.83/6.22 | 6.17/4.24 |
| Tyler Chatwood COL | SEA, @SD | 5.19/5.45 | 7.35/4.65 |
| Robert Gsellman NYM | MIL, PIT | 8.49/4.77 | 6.65/3.02 |
| Daniel Wright LAA | ATL, MIN | 5.54/4.76 | 4.85/4.15 |
| Zach Davies MIL | @NYM, LAD | 5.60/5.35 | 7.19/3.69 |
| Martin Perez TEX | TB, HOU | 3.86/4.10 | 6.28/3.61 |
| Trevor Williams PIT | ARI, @NYM | 6.38/5.97 | 6.53/3.26 |
| Matt Moore SF | WAS, @PHI | 5.58/4.88 | 7.60/3.72 |
All pitchers are projected for two starts as of Friday night.
- Ervin Santana MIN – I know what you’re thinking right now. “Hey, Mike. You have Ervin Santana way too low on this list. Surely you have watched him pitch this year. You suck at this! We want M@ back!” To which I say, hey, I miss him too, but we have to move on. I’m doing my best here! Oh, and that isn’t a mistake. Santana’s 2.49 FIP-to-ERA ratio is second only to, you guessed it, Sam Gaviglio on this list. Santana’s ERA, as we all now know, is sitting at 1.80, but his 4.29 FIP and his career up until this point suggest that a regression is coming. Look, some genius on Twitter even said so:
https://twitter.com/mikeMaher/status/867892751026860032
Add in the fact that Santana, while brilliant in many starts this season, has also been lit the &^@% up by the Red Sox and Rockies this season. Throw in a 3.47 BB/9 and a 2.96 K9/BB9, and you can already see the trouble ahead. Sell. Sell. For the love of everything holy, SELL.
- Robert Gsellman NYM – On the other side of the FIP-to-ERA equation is Gsellman, who earns to honor for the best ratio of the week with a -3.72. Unfortunately, his ERA is 8.49, so his FIP is still up there at 4.77. Translation: he’s still not great, but he isn’t THAT bad. He’s not 8.49 ERA bad. He re-entered the rotation last week after a brief and unimpressive stint in the bullpen for the Mets, and he went ahead and tossed a quality start against the Padres. Neat, right? Oh, you don’t like a guy with an 8.49 ERA who doesn’t strike anyone out? But the FIP! You should totally roll the dice on Gsellman as a two-start pitcher this week. Just kidding. You shouldn’t. Seriously, though, you shouldn’t. Please, don’t.
As you have probably figured out already, I am taking over this Two-Start Starters series for M@. I’ll also be doing the Top-100 Hitters series. M@ is incredible, so I will try to do my best to fill his shoes. Make sure you follow M@ on Twitter to keep in touch and get personal advice.
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If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!
