After a few weeks of really ugly slates, we are chock-full of goodness this week. At least, that’s how it looks on paper and before GMs, managers, and injuries start ruining everything. Still, we’ll take it! It just seems right to have key playoff matchups decided by the guys that got you here, doesn’t it? Good luck in your matchups!
What follows are our projections at time of writing as to who will be making two-starts this week, but weather, injuries, and secretive team management mean they are just that: projections. To stay as up-to-date as possible, consult Rudy Gamble’s invaluable Streamonator.
Chocolate Chip Cookies (Must Start)
They are kings of the cookie world for a reason. A warm, freshly baked chocolate chip cookie just makes you feel happy. Sort of like getting to set your rosters knowing you get two starts this week from these guys.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes, Pit | @STL | @CIN |
| Zack Wheeler, Phi | @MIL | @NYM |
| Shota Imanaga, ChC | OAK | WSH |
| Blake Snell, SF | @BAL | @KC |
Sugar Cookies (Should Start)
They’re fine. You could certainly do worse than having these guys in your lineup, but don’t expect it to be remarkable.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo, KC | DET | SF |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD | @ATL | COL |
| Pablo Lopez, Min | @CLE | @BOS |
| Spencer Arrighetti, Hou | @SD | LAA |
| Nick Pivetta, Bos | @TB | MIN |
| Sean Manaea, NYM | WSH | PHI |
| Luis Gil, NYY | @SEA | @OAK |
| Max Fried, Atl | LAD | @MIA |
| Bryan Woo, Sea | NYY | @TEX |
- Yamamoto looked good in his first start off the IL. The big question this week is how far the Dodgers let him go. It was only 4 IP last time out, and there’s a chance they keep him limited, particularly in that first start. However, they’re going to need him in the playoffs and the Road Rockies should provide nice numbers even if it’s only 5 innings.
Oatmeal Raisin Cookies (Could Start)
These aren’t for everyone. These are the pitchers that may be a pleasant surprise, or they could ruin your week. Tread lightly.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Reid Detmers, LAA | CHW | @HOU |
| Yu Darvish, SD | HOU | CHW |
| Chris Bassitt, Tor | @TEX | @TB |
| Ranger Suarez, Phi | @MIL | @NYM |
| Matthew Boyd, Cle | MIN | @STL |
| Albert Suarez, Bal | SF | DET |
| Shane Baz, TB | BOS | TOR |
| Aaron Civale, Mil | PHI | ARI |
| Merrill Kelly, Ari | @COL | @MIL |
| Gavin Williams, Cle | MIN | @STL |
| Tylor Megill, NYM | WSH | PHI |
- With the possible exception of Darvish and his volume concerns, I wouldn’t hesitate to start anyone in this tier above Kelly this week. In prior weeks these guys would have looked a lot more like Sugar Cookies than Oatmeal Raisin. It’s really only the last three that feel like true gambles, but a tier with 17 names felt excessive.
Fortune Cookies (Do Not Start)
Yeah, they’re technically cookies. Hold on, what does that little slip of paper say? “Bad times are heading your way.” Oh. Okay, then.
| Pitcher | First Start | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea, Mil | PHI | ARI |
| Bobby Miller, LAD | @MIA | COL |
| Jake Irvin, Wsh | @NYM | @CHC |
| Mitchell Parker, Wsh | @NYM | @CHC |
| Jonathan Cannon, ChW | @LAA | @SD |
| Jordan Wicks, ChC | OAK | WSH |
| Andre Pallante, StL | PIT | CLE |
| Casey Mize, Det | @KC | @BAL |
| Brandon Williamson, Cin | ATL | PIT |
| Zebby Matthews, Min | @CLE | @BOS |
| Bailey Falter, Pit | @STL | @CIN |
| Joey Estes, Oak | @CHC | NYY |
| Jordan Montgomery, Ari | @COL | @MIL |
| Ian Anderson, Atl | @CIN | @MIA |
| Tyler Holton, Det | @KC | @BAL |
| Anthony Veneziano, Mia | LAD | ATL |
| Antonio Senzatela, Col | ARI | @LAD |
- As this is written, there is zero confirmation that Anderson will be taking Reynaldo Lopez’ spot in the rotation. Grant Holmes would have been a good guess, but he came out of the bullpen Saturday night. He could still start Tuesday, but it would presumably be as an opener. Bryce Elder pitched on Friday night, so he’s out. My best guess is actually that Atlanta has different guys make each of those two starts. Sorry.
- Streamonator has Miller significantly higher than this. I do not share its confidence. The matchups are as good as you can ask for, so I can see why you’d be willing to risk it. I’m not that bold.
- Veneziano is a guess at a Marlins’ opener on Tuesday. There’s a chance Darren McCaughan or another actual starter takes the bump instead. It doesn’t matter to you, though, because you’re not using any of them.
12 team points league playoffs.. i understand that two starts aren’t necessarily better than one, but with that in mind, would you put in any of the three two start pitchers over the one start pitchers:
A. Suarez vs SF (Snell) vs DET (TBA)
Baz vs BOS (Pivetta) vs TOR (Bassitt)
Montas vs PHI(Wheeler) Maybe vs ARI (Montgomery)
Eovaldi @TOR(Bassit)
Schwellenbach @CIN(Junis)
Morton @MIA(whocares) or
Nola @MIL(Peralta) I only include Nola because his latest starts haven’t gone well and I’m also rostering Peralta.
Montas is listed as a 2 start v Wheeler/Phils and v Monty/Az. Do you prefer him over any of Megill v Wash v Phil, A Suarez v SF v Det and Detmers V CHW @ Houston? Thanks. It’s the finals.
It’s unclear if the Brewers are going with a 6 man rotation or not. It looked like they they’re inclined that direction, which is why he missed the list. I still see conflicting assumptions from people. If it was sure he’d get two starts, he’d be over Megill and probably Suarez, at least. There’s just a lot of uncertainty there. A frustrating case, for sure.
Eovaldi and Hunter Brown – only set for (1) each? Are these teams going to 6 man?
Yes. Houston has been for a turn or two already, and Texas looks to as they incorporate deGrom, Scherzer, and Rocker
I’m in a weekly league, and I am close in K and W. My Save position is locked. So I’m concerned about ratios (Possible blow-up ERA/WHIP). Re: Parker
One more week.
If you need to win another category to get the W, seems sort of like you have to take that risk. Because Martinez is unlikely to shift either of those two in your direction. If you like your chances to win more by protecting ratios, go that way.
Thanks for the work you do on this every week throughout the season!
For H2H playoffs 6×6 with QS do you like Suarez over Megill? I’m guessing that’s the case based on the ranks but Megill seems to have the higher upside, neither seem to ever make it 6 though. Thank you!
Ranger for sure, if you mean that Suarez. If it’s Albert…I like his matchups a lot better and think he’s more trustworthy to make it 5+ and get you in line for a W.
Choose 2 for a points league please.
Baz vs BOS (Pivetta) vs TOR (Bassitt)
Sonny Gray vs PIT (TBA)
Eflin vs SF (Webb)
C. Sanchez @ NYM (Peterson)
H. Brown @ SD (King)
A. Suarez vs SF (Snell) vs DET (TBA)
It may depend on how many starts it looks like your opponent has and how badly you feel you need to chase volume. In a vacuum Gray and Eflin are the safest bets to deliver quality. But I could see taking Baz or maybe even Suarez over Eflin if you’re really chasing because the other guy has a bunch of extra starts on deck. But two isn’t always better than 1.
Thank you