As we continue our 2018 fantasy baseball rankings, we head into the homestretch of ranking hitters. For those confused, homestretch isn’t when you shoot up late at night, remembering there’s a Dorito under the couch and go reaching for it. That is the opening to my short film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dorito. The main character has just been “Frito-laid off” and is described as Pringley and Ruffled. Last year, this post had Aaron Judge, Domingo Santana, Josh Bell and Hunter Renfroe. Well, they’re not all gems. My point (PLEASE!) there is some value to still be found in the outfielders, it’s just a matter of finding it, like in the landmark film, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dorito. As with the other rankings, my projections are included and where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball:
61. Dexter Fowler – This tier started in the top 60 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Bradley. I called this tier, “J. Scooting Herduardones Gonillar, the Thames.” Guess I should’ve added a few more names to the tier name, but excuuuuuuuuse me. This tier is so boring AF I need to move on. Top 100 films of all-time on the boring AF list is, “This Tier,” and The Florida Project, in a tie. As for Fowler, I’ll just say Dexter Fowler is Shin-Soo Choo minus a few years. Call him, Choo Choo Spring Chicken? Sure, why not! 2018 Projections: 73/17/78/.266/11 in 480 ABs
62. Corey Dickerson – Over the course of his career, in a 162-game season, Dickerson is a 80/27/80/.280/3 player, and he’s only 28 years old, coming off his best season. I know, that was surprising to me too. Of course, some of that came on the Rockies. Drilling down to specifics, his walk rate went down last year, he’s got a pretty bleh strikeout rate, he swings a ton and misses, and is not very patient. Don’t see any upside here, but he’s likely underrated for reasons previously mentioned, before they were undercut by the rest of the specifics that were also mentioned. Focus! Or if a network guy from Standards and Practices is reading, BLEEP! UPDATE: Traded to the Pirates. From Pittsburgh to Tampa is just about neutral, culturally and baseballically. Baseballically is defined as Norman Rockwell with throat cancer from chewing tobacco. The only iffy on the snafu is there’s no more DH and Pirates have two locked-in OFs and a bunch of other guys who can play in place of Dickerson, so Dickerson may lose 45-70 ABs. 2018 Projections: 72/24/65/.272/2 in 497 ABs
63. Jackie Bradley Jr. – It’s not out of the realm of realism to think JBJ could luck into a 24/10/.270, top 40 outfielder season. I mean, after all, this guy once walked multiple times in one game! 2018 Projections: 72/20/84/.256/8 in 531 ABs
64. Delino DeShields – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Odubel. I call this tier, “Prince Charles.” This one time I was in the post office, waiting in line to mail something. It had the postage on it, and I didn’t think I needed to wait in line. I figured I just had to put it in a slot to be mailed, but I didn’t know where that slot was. So, I walked up to the window and said, “Can I just drop this off somewhere?” At that point, a 85-year-old woman who was in line started yelling, “Oh, he thinks he’s Prince Charles! He doesn’t need to wait in line! Yeah, he’s Prince Charles!” Then everyone in line started chiming in with her, “Yeah, who are you, Prince Charles?” What I think that pack of people who were verbally attacking me meant was, I’m above waiting in line and I think I’m Prince Charles. All of the guys in this tier have had moments in the past where we thought they were going to be great, like Prince Charles, and, who knows, maybe they can still be Prince Charles. As for Delino, He had 6/29/.269 season last year, and is projected for 10/31 this year by Steamer in only 138 games. However, I think he’s been projected for that line every year for the last three years. This could be the year! Dot dot dot. Or not. Yo, Delino, you Prince Charles? 2018 Projections: 71/8/42/.252/33 in 462 ABs
65. David Peralta – I’m coming at this one from a very specific place. I want Ketel Marte to hit in one of the top two places in the Diamondbacks’ lineup, and move Peralta down to around the five or six hole. That’s a bit of a gut call, since last year Peralta hit predominantly in the top of the order. I’m moving him down the order, because he’s a 15/8 hitter. Now ask me if I have at any point in the past I’ve filled out a major league lineup, and does it matter where I want Peralta hitting. 2018 Projections: 74/16/67/.273/7 in 509 ABs
66. Aaron Hicks – He went 15/10 last year in barely a bit more than a half season. Don’t make me buzz Mr Prorater to tell you how good that is over a 162-game season. There’s also a small problem that Hicks has had great half seasons before and never played a full season. He is the perennial season is half full. I will call him, Pollyanna Hicks. 2018 Projections: 57/14/63/.255/13 in 427 ABs
67. Lewis Brinson – I already gave you my Lewis Brinson fantasy. It was a thing of booty…It was a thing of booty…It was a thing of beauty mispronounced, which was appropriate since its general gist is right but he’s no longer on the Brewers. I’ll swallow the medicine that I wrote a post about him on the Brewers because color me fired up to draft him! Doode is a pineapple sundae waiting to take over the world. Last year, he went 13/11/.331 in 76 Triple-A games, and he’s ready. He also appeared on Prospector Ralph’s top 50 prospects for 2018 fantasy baseball. 2018 Projections: 67/18/64/.258/17 in 509 ABs
68. Steven Souza – I almost wrote a Stephen Souza sleeper post. It went like this: Something something. See, because I didn’t write it! It didn’t go like anything. C’mon. You mental? If I had wrote it, it would’ve said how his K-rate came down, his walk rate went up, and there’s noticeable differences in his plate discipline to back up these gains. He swung (swang?) at less pitches inside and outside the zone, while making more-slash-better contact. His HR/FB% was a little silly high, but he could hit more fly balls, and his average distance on home runs wasn’t pee-poor. Obviously, the Rays aren’t great, but Souza can play that funky white music for anyone. UPDATE: Traded to the Diamondbacks. You know when you lose a girlfriend (or wife, for some of your sadder beanbags) and your natural inclination is to work harder to make the next girlfriend like you? Your last girlfriend said you never went out with her and her friends enough! You always complained about that tapas bar she liked to go to! You used to insist her friend Robin used to be a man who went by the same name, Robin! But with this new girl, you’re not going to make the same mistakes. And, sure enough, the new girl doesn’t like you for different reasons. This seems like what’s going on with the Diamondbacks. J.D. Martinez refused to re-sign with them, and now they’re going out and being aggressive suitors for everyone. Jarrod Dyson? Sure, what the hey! Souza? And the band played on! Why won’t all this work? Because they’re putting in a freakin’ humidor! UPDATE 2: Souza was diagnosed with a right pectoral strain. The pectoral strain is different than the pastoral strain, which affected Grandmother Moses earlier work when she was depicting sheepherders getting lap dances from sheep. A pectoral strain is likely a shorter rehab stint for Souza, than the original prognosis of a shoulder strain, but I’m still docking him a month of his projections. 2018 Projections: 76/20/61/.243/6 in 439 ABs
69. Odubel Herrera – He had a solid 2nd half last year for batting average, to which I yawn in Odubel’s general direction. A .323 average in the 2nd half is great, terrific, adjective, but three steals and eight homers isn’t exactly buttering the biscuits, it’s not walking the dog, and it’s definitely not winning you a fantasy league. 2018 Projections: 81/15/69/.283/13 in 534 ABs
70. Adam Duvall – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Grichuk. I call this tier, “$1,329,063.” By the tier name I mean, if these guys got 500+ ABs, they’d be so money. However, that money would be like the $1,329,063 bill in the Mad Magazine board game, because all of these players would drive you a little mad with strikeouts, a low batting average or just not very good against same-handed pitchers. I.e., it’s good they’re only facing half the pitchers. As for Duvall, he’s starring in the millennial love story, ‘Fifty Shades of Gentrification,’ where Cincinnati decides it’s best to let other players roam the area where Duvall made himself comfortable. You might get lucky with a 30-homer guy crazy late, but you might also have a bench player. 2018 Projections: 62/24/71/.252/3 in 461 ABs
71. Mark Trumbo – He’s like Shin-Soo Choo without the speed, and more power, and less average, and nothing like Choo. Let’s call him, Who Who Choo? Yup, that works! There is a shizzton of outfielders that we’re all well aware of, huh? Trumbo and Souza in the tier makes me want to call this a sub-tier, “And the band played on, starring Matthew Modine.” Fun Anecdote Alert! Cougs was working on a film with Matthew Modine, and he was sleeping on the other producer’s couch, and Cougs was legit worried that he was gonna ask to sleep on our couch next. I was like, “Bring it on!” By the way, there’s also a lot of outfielders who have other position eligibility, who I’ve gone over before. This is a ‘no dur’ comment, but I mention it because A) I’m full-on dur. B) While there’s a ton of outfielders, if they’re eligible elsewhere, they prolly won’t be used as outfielders. C) There’s no C. UPDATE: Out for a month with a Grade 2 quad strain. That’s the grade when all strains enjoy poop jokes and start to inherit their parents’ casual racism. 2018 Projections: 62/26/74/.243/1 in 474 ABs
72. Nick Williams – I kinda wish I could see 500 ABs from Williams and his platoon-mate, Aaron Altherr, but, to see that, Rhys Hoskins would need to get hurt — blasphemy! — or Odubel would need to get injured, and we’ve already lost one ODB. RIP, Dirt McJesusBaby! 2018 Projections: 58/16/65/.251/6 in 410 ABs
73. Joc Pederson – He hit .204 with one homer last year vs. lefties. Man, that is awful. *sees what he did against righties* Okay, so a little better. 2018 Projections: 58/24/67/.248/5 in 412 ABs
74. Austin Hays – Already gave you an Austin Hays fantasy. It had so much to give, and you just took, and took, and took. A quick note about Hays. Don’t put your baby batter on a cracker and make your classmates eat it. Wait, that’s haze, not Hays. C’mon, Siri, help out a guy here! When I wrote my Hays fantasy, I was under the assumption he’d be down in the minors until June. Then I screamed, “Help, I’m stuck under an assumption,” and I remained there for six days eating nothing but these crackers some frat boys left me. Ew! I haven’t changed Hays’ projections yet, but it’s starting to look like he may start the year on the O’s and get another 100+ ABs. He also appeared in Prospector Ralph’s top 50 prospects for 2018 fantasy baseball. 2018 Projections: 54/17/67/.270/6 in 334 ABs
75. Jesse Winker – Didn’t Christina Applegate play a character named Jesse Winker? No? Okay. Winker bridges the gap between what can be a valuable baseball player vs. a valuable fantasy one. Unfortunately, there’s a toll on the real baseball player side of the bridge, and Winker doesn’t have any cash on him and forgot his EZ Pass. 2018 Projections: 62/16/54/.284/4 in 402 ABs
76. Max Kepler – *a ghost clangs chains* I lift my stocking cap head, “Could you be a little quieter? I’m trying to sleep.” *clangs chains* “I’m the Ghost of Past Sleepers, and it’s hard for me to be quiet because I’m carrying around chains.” You know past sleepers leave a little something to be desired when you look at their stats, and you wonder what on earth you were thinking last year when you called him a sleeper. And by ‘you,’ I mean ‘me.’ I imagine with Kepler I saw a guy that had 18 steals in Double-A, and had 25-homer power, so maybe a 25/15/.270 was in the works. However, Kepler needs to hit against lefties immediately or he will be a platoon guy, since him vs. lefties is not very good, to the Max! 2018 Projections: 61/18/67/.272/7 in 441 ABs
77. Kevin Kiermaier – Reminds me a lot of Cameron Maybin. Doesn’t have Maybin’s speed, has more power than Maybin, will hit for a better average–Okay, he has one thing in common with Maybin — Kiermaier can’t ever stay on the field. 2018 Projections: 71/17/54/.261/16 in 403 ABs
78. Randal Grichuk – The Jays really didn’t want to play Teoscar Hernandez, huh? I wonder if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will ever get a real shot with the Jays because I honestly cannot remember the last time they gave a young hitter a shot. Was it Brett Lawrie in 2011? Here I thought Brett Lawrie scarred me for life, but the Jays are shook. Grichuk went from the Cards to the Jays this offseason, which is a good move for Grichuk’s chances since the Cards have more outfielders than a Jamaican has jobs. What’s not so good for Grichuk is his strikeouts. 2018 Projections: 51/25/62/.235/4 in 424 ABs
79. Victor Robles – This tier goes from here until the top 100 outfielders for 2018 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Kevin Spacey cancelled.” By the tier name I mean, Kevin Spacey was fired from House of Cards for trying to bump and/or grind on a 14-year-old boy. While that is shameful, what is also shameful is how bad House of Cards was. By Spacey’s actions, Netflix got to cancel an already garbage show. All of the guys in this tier need a Kevin Spacey getting cancelled to get full-time playing time. As for Robles, I already gave you my Victor Robles fantasy. It was written while substituting sugar for Truvia. 2018 Projections: 48/6/53/.275/18 in 405 ABs
80. Hunter Renfroe – Sometimes I like to watch Hunter Renfroe hit home runs. They are gorge. I put one of my favorites in below the blurb. Of course, he might only hit .230. I go over Renfroe in the video, too. 2018 Projections: 55/24/68/.241/3 in 429 ABs
After the Outfield rankings, we need to rank the pictures between the article and comment section or at least have a few Razz nicknames.
I mean a huge rack of some crazy housewife, the inside of an ear, a lady’s lip that looks like the wrinkles on my dog’s balls, and some nail fungus that looks like Barney’s diarrhea.
How the he’ll can I remember my questins after that ?? !!!!
Anyway, sitting in Round 20 of a Draft and Hold and this is a awesome list. Down to a fifth outfielder and will combo a reliable atbats guy with an upside younger player.
Great insight as always !!!
@Big League Wood: Ha! This was funny. That toe nail fungus gets me every time.
@Big League Wood: The “you’ll never believe what these celebrities look like NOW” always gets me…
Slick dick Willie Calhoun that’s my dude!
Which two players would you rather have this year in an OPS league.
Rendon/Chris Taylor
or
Benintendi/Shaw
Thanks!
@Crime dog: Rendon
Benetindi/Sonny gray. Or. Eloy/bogaerts. Dynasty
@Chris: Benintendi
Benitindi/s. Gray or Eloy/bogaerts. Dynasty.
@Chris: Huh?
Hunter Renfroe is a Scooby Doo villain. I watched that exact HR for 5 minutes straight after drafting him last year, and got a bit excited. Then he took his mask off and turned in a 623 OPS the first month of the season.
Between that and his giant platoon splits, I think he’s scared me off. But that HR is sooooo pretty. Especially for someone who can’t hit RHP.
@Matt: It’s gorge
Why are Adam Duvall and Jay Bruce ranked so differently. I had them on the same team last year and I couldn’t tell them apart. I mean Duvall has more chiseled features, no doubt, but basically they’re the same. Who do you think you are Prince Charles?
@Justin: Read Duvall’s description. He’s currently projected to start as a bench player.
@Fungazi 2.0:
First, Duvall starting as a bench player is incomprehensible – as a sentence.
Second, in order for Duvall to lose at-bats they’d have to sit him against righties. He was better against lefties but he wasn’t bad against righties. His OF competition for at bats is Schebler and Winker. Both will see some playing time, as they did last year, but Duvall still had 587 ABs.
Third, the only reason I can think of for maybe a negative outlook on Duvall is that his second half last year was much worse than his first half. Not sure why but it’s not an age thing as he is under 30 still. Jay Bruce also nosedived second half FYI. And Bruce is going to be 31.
@Justin: So draft Duvall then, idgaf
@Fungazi 2.0:
You GAF, don’t lie
@Justin: Well he’s not projected for a full season of AB’s, by Grey or Steamer. So you have a sub-.250 hitter with 25/75.
@Justin: I’d say if you take Duvall maybe also take Winker and see how it shakes out.
@Justin: Haha, Duvall’s gonna platoon as of now
@Grey:
Link me to where this is coming from broseph!!
If he’s a platoon candidate then he’s only facing lefties in which case he’s unownable not even quippy tier worthy
https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-cincinnati-reds/
@Grey:
Thanks, I wonder where roster resource is getting their info from on this. Unless there is a plan to move Duvall to 2B…
Why would Duvall move to 2B?
@Grey:
Because Ryan Braun can and I believe in miracles
Haha
I get where you’re at with these tiers, and I agree, plenty of boring. However, if I’m taking guys here, I’m taking upside, and I think that is in players like Odubel over anyone in his tier and JBJ over anyone in his.
Also, loving the Willie Calhoun projection, and hope that he blows up in Texas this season. If everything falls the right way for them, they should contend with Anaheim.
Also also, imagine what Brinson’s projections could be if he had everyday playing time AND didn’t play on a AA team.
@Tweak: Yeah, I hear ya… Odubel wasn’t good last 1st half tho
@Grey: Fair enough, but he’s 26yo, headed into his 4th full season on an improving Phillies team. Could get to 20/20. A small cut in Ks could have him hitting near .300.
Wishful thinking though. Could be a seasons splits player like Dozier or Lamb. If I get him at my 4/5 OF, I’ll be okay with that.
Yeah, I would too, just saying no guarantee…
Would you trade Goldschmidt for Bellinger in a keeper league without a yearly keeper penalty?
@Bob: Nah, but I could understand it
Keep forever (+$3 annually) – would you want a $13 JDM or a $23 Machado?
Thanks!
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Machado
@Cram It: Thanks, Cram.
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Agree with Cram, pretty close tho
DeShizz should be down 2 more spots at #69 because this is the year he is niceeeeeeeeeee!
I hate to be scorned again, but I can’t imagine NOT drafting him as my OF5 in all leagues, in hopes of a 10-12 HR / 40 SB / 100 R line . . .
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Haha, you will be scorned again prolly but will be back there again next year (as will I)….
@Grey: This year feels like the year to double down though, sort of similar to Story/Odor . . . post-hype guys who are all the exact same players they were when they were far more expensive.
Yeah, totally… Like 2019 for Rhys Hoskins (I keed)
@Grey: HA!
Thinking about jumping in on one of these $50 NFBC leagues, but haven’t done one before. Quick couple questions for those who have… its a slow draft via email? Is a live spreadsheet used? Any tips that anyone could provide would be appreciated.
@knucks: Nah, it’s online, and you can use your phone, if you’re away from your computer
@knucks: Wait and get in the one with Razzball later. Draft is a blast.
My concern with Hays and PT is that the Orioles lineup is already so righty heavy. Even though there is a lineup opening now, seems like they have to acquire a left handed bat.
@Darek: this is partly why I think they end up signing Moustakas
@Darek: Yeah, he could get bumped out of this list if they sign or trade for someone still
There’s talk of Braun possibly playing some 2b. Supposing he got his 2b eligibility in the first month or so, would you put him at or above Dozier-level?
@Hollywood: neither
@Hollywood: Haha, they’re talking of playing Braun everywhere except pitcher as of now
@Grey: although looking at their roster they could probably use him on the mound…
More so than the OF
@Grey: let’s be honest, this problem will sort itself out for the Brewers by June when Braun is playing DL for 60 days
Yeah, don’t disagree
Dynasty league: Trade Walker Buehler and Mike Clevinger to get Aaron Nola? What side do you like?
@bam: Sure
Matthew Joker Modine. His career feels like a tier in the rankings. Early in his career he had some monster years between Full Metal Jacket and Memphis Belle only to slowly slide down the ranks and when you think he’s ready to jump back to the upper echelons with Cutthroat Island he ends up making a textbook dud. First movies I remember seeing him in was private school and vision quest….he could totally crash in my couch too.
@J-FOH: Funny, the only thing I think of him now is that he’s the bad guy in Stranger Things.
Yeah, Stranger Things and FMJ
I think he does whatever is thrown his way
@Grey: like John Tavolta?
Like most actors I guess, but, how can I put this delicately, he seems to literally do anything, without money even mattering…
@Grey: he’s such a dime store hooker
I wonder if he mismanaged his money, then on the other hand I wonder if he ever really made any real money
@Grey: That Cutthroat Island money got blown, thats why hes on couches
Is that a celebrity Get me off the Island show? I don’t know this Cutthroat Island thing… BTW, Dirty Money on Netflix is excellent (only seen two episodes so far, but shizz is shameful)
@Grey: Ive been watching that too! Its solid AF
Just confirmed it, Cutthroat Island (1995) cost 115 million to make and made 10 million. Ive been reading about it for years as the poster child for blockbuster busts. Look it up
Oh, the Geena Davis joint! That killed her career…. I didn’t know Modine was in it… I legit hate Scott Tucker so much, I wanna handicap him…
Yes! She was a bad ass then made the shitty pirate movie. Career killer like being traded to the Pirates
Or Padres, though Ralph tells me the Padres will be good at some point…
I too am sceptical believing the stockpiling of talent will equate to success. The proof is in the pudding…except when baby batter Hays makes it, steer clear of that potluck item
Proof is in the pudding! Awesome…. Yeah, the Padres suck until they don’t, there’s no points for them being maybe good in 3 years
@Grey: Reminds me of Edward Burns. Whose name I always have to look up. He was awesome in She’s the One and 15 Minutes and aside from Saving Private Ryan, couldn’t tell ya what else he’s been in over the last 15 years. But he’s married to Christy Turlington, so really, what does he care?
@Cram It: Confidence? He’s like the king of indie flicks
@J-FOH: Never heard of it, but now I want to see it!
@Cram It: Its worth it. good cast and a usual suspects-ish ending
I know Ed Burns from that crappy first movie he did that he directed, but he’s not even on Modine’s level…
@Grey: Brothers McMullen? That was snoozy. He is seriously the indie Modine
Yes! That was awful, and hailed him as the next Woody Allen
@Grey: the good looking Woody Allen. Seriously though Confidence is a good Ed Burns movie
I’ll take your word for it, Ed Burns annoys me…
@Grey: No, not on Modine’s level as far as visibility anyway. If I’ve seen him in anything outside of FMJ, he was forgettable.
Ed Burns is terrible, Modine I think was good in a few movies where he was good…. Burns was the worst part of every movie he was in…
@Grey:
Burns also has an annoying voice to top it off..
Agreed
@J-FOH: He’s in the tier of celebrities that when someone talks about him you smile and nod and pretend you know who he is
Haha
Good to see you commenting without moderation
@Grey: Thanks! Feels so free, like going to work commando
Haha
@Fungazi 2.0: but I know who he is…but Im also 42 and he peaked in the mid to late 80’s, Like Fred Ward, Im still waiting on the sequel to Remo Williams: The Adventure Begins. It began so where is the next chapter? WHERE
@J-FOH: I’ve seen most from the 80’s, but still couldn’t put a face to the name. I guess he’s higher in your rankings then.
@Fungazi 2.0: Fred Ward or Modine?
@J-FOH: Modine, veto
@Fungazi 2.0: Then you have to watch vision quest. Good sports underdog flick
@J-FOH: Haven’t heard of that one, I’ll keep my eye out for it
Taking over a team that finished last in a 5×5 keeper (obp instead of average) . 12 teams. It is a 3 year keeper with salary increasing by only 5 per year. Last year was the first year of the league, so every player is in their 2nd year of the contract. Can keep 5. 300 auction draft budget – keepers. Any help would be appreciated…I do like 30 redrafts annually but this is my first year doing a few keepers.
Arenado- 2-54
Altuve – 2- 54
Correa 2-46
Posey 2-26
Ozuna 2-11
Verlander 2-30
Sonny Gray 2-6
Tailon 2-15
Luis Castillo 2-10
Chase Anderson 2-10
Jon Gray 2-7
Castillo, Ozuna, and top 3
@Grey: Is the line of thinking that if they would fetch less at auction, throw em back? That is the 3 I was leaning, and I would imagine Arenado’s price this year would be down a bit from last year.
Really? You think down?
@Grey: I guess you are right. Especially in an OBP league he did increase his OBP. But in terms of standard 5×5 he had slightly less value than before iirc (less hrs than any other year of last 3 and less rbis) and more people upped their value w juiced balls. I drafted him 2nd across the board last year and def didn’t lose any leagues because of it. He is def a safe pick, a lock for top 15 production. But I have a hard time seeing him top 5. Maybe that is just me.
Yup, super safe
@mic: Don’t forget that the 60 players whose current value exceeds their salary by the most will not be available in the auction – guys like Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez, Luis Severino and Robbie Ray are probably being kept at a salary that is a pittance compared to their current value.
Consequently, the total amount of budget available to bid on the remaining players is higher than if the kept players were being thrown back into the auction. There was no such discounted value for the year 1 draft, so consequently it will take higher bids across the board to acquire players this year.
As an example, suppose the 60 kept players would have an average auction value of 30 if they were all being auctioned this year, but are being kept at an average salary of, say, 12. That means that the discounted amount – 18 per kept player x 60 players = 1080 worth of budget, is available to owners to bid on the remaining players. Assuming 23 man starting rosters, each team has to acquire 18 more players, so there will be a total of 18 X 12 players acquired in the auction = 216. Because there is an extra 1080 worth of total budget to spend on those players than if all keepers had been thrown in, there is an average of 1080 / 216 = 5 salary dollars more available to bid per player than if all keepers had been thrown in.
Conservatively, therefore, in a vacuum you would expect Arenado’s salary to rise by 5 from last year. But, in practice, owners do not allocate those extra dollars equally across the 216 players to be acquired – they allocate more to superstars and less to late auction speculative players. All in all, you might expect Arenado’s salary to rise 10 or 15 from last year’s draft *just because of the surplus discounted value* available to bid, so maybe to 65 or even 70.
You would have to adjust that by however much his actual value changed from last year, but there is little to suggest that Arenado’s value would have dropped. He had 4 less HRs and a handful of runs less, but a higher batting average by 15 points and an extra SB – none of that would be enough to move his value. And at 26 years old, he is a guy just coming into his prime.
@LenFuego: thanks for that. makes a lot of sense when you put it that way
Yo Grey, faithful reader/listener for years! I’ve got a dreaded keeper question – though I should probably have waited until you’ve released your full rankings. I can only keep 4 of these hitters, and our cats are the normal five plus SLG%. Also, given our crazy rules, the players are only available at the position in brackets.
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Dee Gordon (OF)
Byron Buxton (OF)
Anthony Rendon (3B)
Jonathan Schoop (2B)
Jean Segura (SS)
Giancarlo is a DH? He’s never even been DH
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
Anthony Rizzo (1B)
Dee Gordon (OF)
Rendon
@Grey: Thanks Grey! Yeah, we use a specific site’s depth charts to determine our position eligibility. As for these choices, curious if you were at all torn? I was leaning this way too given Gordon’s steals to offset the power I’d be keeping, but the other three have their benefits too.
Nah, wasn’t torn at all… I think it’s BS to give Giancarlo DH eligibility tho, and you should use new depth charts
@Grey: Agree, and agree. But I’m just one man! Thanks Grey!
No problem
Can’t wait for the SP rankings, these latest OF’s were boring af! Keeper question… keeping Abreu and Thor.. need to choose 1 more among a not so great group: Odor, Cruz and Conforto. 12 team league, I can keep Odor just this season, and Conforto for 3 years including 2018. Thoughts?
Keep Conforto
I’ve been offered a trade. $260 roto keeper (up to 3 years) 6×6 with hitting including hits and pitching including innings pitched as a counting stat so looking for inning eaters in the league:
Which side or about equal?
Ozuna $3 (2yr) and Quintana $18 (2yr) or Segura $3 (1yr), Inciarte $5 (2yr) and Kimbril $11 (2yr) – for context Kimbril’s price is about draft value for closers each year – e.g. I also have Davis for $10 whom I could keep. Among my other keepers ar Schoop. Bellinger, Upton, Contreras and maybe Beltre.
There will be quality SS, SP and closers in the draft but as usual speed will be a bit of an issue.
Thanks. Grey!
Ozuna
@Grey: Thanks!
No problem
@Grey: OZUNA is in the house
A very large house
Need to keep 3 players from this list in a standard 5×5 roto league. Have Freeman, Blackmon, Pollock and Rendon under affordable contracts.
D. Murphy $21
Gallo $2
Eaton $1
Pham $1
Paxton $9
Giolito $3
Thanks
Pham, Gallo, Paxton
Baby batter on a cracker? HAHAHAHAHAHA….Can we just refer to Hays as baby batter going forward?
Haha, yes, he is a baby batter!
@Grey: duality!…I think. Waiting to read this, “Baby batter went 2 for 3 with a slam and legs and the ire of his frat bros after the triscuit incident”.
HAHA, yes
Oh my Lord the Prince Charles thing killed me. I think part of it had to do with my imagining you impersonating the old lady saying it while retelling the story. So I have grey old lady impression in my head. And she has a New Jersey accent too for some reason. Not sure why, but that probably made it better.
It’s good to be back. Hope the off season was kind to you.
Good to see you! Do anything fun this offseason?
@Grey: Pretty quiet here. My wife is still in grad school, so that combined with our kid’s sports and our work, we don’t have much time for anything “fun”. Ask in a couple years, I’m sure I’ll have something really good to report. It’s all good though… cause… baseball.
You’re in ‘paying your dues’ mode for a few years, I hear ya…
@Grey: That’s a good way of looking at it. Thanks Grey! Looking forward to this year.
No problem
OF feels thin. Cant say im excited about any of these guys really. I think the move is go OF early and then late. Ignore them in the middle rounds.
This is late in the OF rankings, talking like 200-250 overall…
@Grey: thats true, this woulda worked better for the top 40 or 60 post. Been doing mocks on fantasy pros sim and it just feels like outfield is thin if drafting for 5 OF spots.
OFs always seem to be on waivers in-season tho too
Poor Jackie Bradley. Quite a fall from the hype he was getting last season.
Who out of this group would get a boost in OBP formats? Old man Choo and Fowler come to mind. Any others with deceptively good BB%’s?
Choo’s fine there
The Yas man isn’t JD by any stretch of the imagination, but he ain’t chump change either. Can he stay healthy is truly the question. A great late pick is what I’m seeing. On another note when are the Commenter leagues starting up ??? I’m in full ranking mode and need to start making plans…
RCLs start up a little after rankings end… Usually 2nd week of Feb, might be earlier this year…
@Grey: Very interested to see the results from that poll and to see what decisions are made about what these RCLs look like this year. Watched from the sidelines last year and eager to get involved.
I’m eager to see results too, I think we might put poll up one more time, not sure…
Hey Grey, trying to decide on last keeper – debating between darvish 14 rd, Marwin g 25th rd or cespedes 25th round. Keep forever league no increases in charges who do you like? Thanks Grey
Yoenis
On the TV front, liking dirty money, nice filler to break everything else up. I started the Sopranos last night. Ive seen over half of them when they came out because I would watch with my dad and brother when I was too partied out to hit the bar on Sunday nights.
Sopranos, nice, oldie but goodie… I almost rewatched that at one point, then I almost rewatched Breaking Bad…. Something new always comes out that kiboshes my rewatching… Loving Dirty MOney, but it does infuriate me… I hate Scott Tucker so much…
@Grey: I haven’t finished the second episode yet of DM. Im really enjoying the Sopranos. I forgot how good the early seasons were before the show got weird. His mom is great in it.
Oh, yeah, Tony’s mom is the best part of the show early on… I wanna watch the 2nd episode again with Cougs just to get pissed off again about Scott Tucker, but then Cougs will fall asleep while we’re watching and I’ll displace my anger onto her…
@Grey: displaced anger towards cougs while she sleeps? Like putting her hand in a bowl of water or drawing a penis on her forehead?
Penis on the forehead, yeah, drawing, that’s the ticket…
@Grey: you do that and you’ll be Matthew Modine sleeping on couches…and no that wasnt an offer of my couch
Haha, Scott Tucker is cause me to get a divorce!
@Grey: Fuckin’ Tucker!
He’s ruined my life and I only learned about him two days ago
You got Scott Tucker’ed. Or is it Tucker’ed out? Sounds like a glossary term for the “Razzball:Life Coach” site. Which BTW is an awesome idea I made up 3 seconds ago. We’d write bi-weekly posts about whatever we want and then commenters ask us life choice questions. For example, ” Hey guys, I’m stuck on a food option” Do I go Top Ramen 10 for a dollar or 4 for a dollar cup o’ noodles” The cup provides me with two less dishes to do”
I love it…. “Two less dishes, but 80 grams less MSG! Wait, is less MSG preferable?”
“depends who you ask, I say go cup of noodles because with less dishes means less water usage and a lower monthly bill”
“But if there’s more sodium, I need to drink more water? Ugh, I’m so lost!”
“well there is where you went wrong, you need to drinking store brand soda or light beer”
Haha… “Have you tried boiling the cola to cook your ramen, it kills two birds…”
Beer noodles!
Yummers!
Grey I need advise!! 12 team dynasty league, 7×7 format where the extra categories are extra base hits, OBP, WHIP, and quality starts. The league set up was to keep 20 guys and then do a 15 round draft. After vote, we now are expending to have a 40 man roster, and within that have a 10 man minor league system. After this season we can keep between 25-35 players.
My team is listed below
C. Jt Realmuto
1b. Freddie Freeman
2b. Whit Merrifield
3b. Nolan Arenado
Ss. Carlos Correa
Of. Andrew McCutchen
Of. Jay Bruce
Of. Avisail Garcia
Utility. Ian Happ
Utility. Anthony Rendon
NA. Kyle Tucker
P Robbie Ray
P. Kyle Hendricks
P. Luke Weaver
P. Kenta Maeda
P. Zack Godley
P. Lucas Giolito
P. Walker Buehler
NA. AJ Puk
NA. Kolby Allard
I have the 2nd and 3rd pick in the draft where I will be taking Bo Bichette and Luis Robert, but from there I do not pick again until round 5.
My question is, do you think I should attack pitching by making a trade or from the 5th round on just take pitchers available. Additionally what offensive area should I attack in the draft.
Thanks for the help.
You look light on power and speed — I don’t know what pitchers will be available, but your staff looks fine as it is… I’d be more concerned about your outfield…
@Grey: okay thank you
No problem
12 team, H2H, 6X6. Which one would you keep in Utility role – Adam Jones or Roughned Odor? Thanks Man!
Odor
Why do I get the weird feeling Mancini is going to end up in this group, and Kepler will end up in the top 40 group?
Grey, $260 standard roto 5×5, would you rather;
Pollock – $5
Sale – $52
I guess they could, but Mancini is an easy .290 hitter, Kepler is a .255 one… Pollock
In a NL only league, who would you rather have.
No contracts but salary goes up 5 dollars every year can keep as long as you like
Harper 33
Albies 2
Contresas 11
What, pick one?
@Grey:
Yes, pick one.
Bryce
@Grey:
Dallas Howard?
Oh she is the absolute worst
@Grey:
She’s due for a regression, a nosedive if you will…
Rate me on the crazy scale — I’m thinking about offering Abreu for Buxton or Acuna. 14 team, MLB, 5×5 keep 5 forever league. Lesser players like Darvish haven’t gotten it done and I want a man crush this year.
Thanks!
Sounds a little crazy town
Grey, I have enjoyed and used your Pitcher Pairing articles. Do you plan on doing one for 2018?
Yup, there will be one
Grey,
There’s video gold on display here….
Love your sleepers in the opening!
Yours truly, Verne Gagne
Thanks, Verne!
Grey, I have the #1 pick in my 5×5 CBS Keeper 21-rd. draft. Top players available: Altuve, Votto, Machado, Donaldson. I’ve been offered a “trade-down:” I receive K. Bryant, Darvish and Pick #12 for my #1 and 2 of my “non-keepers.” Pick #12 would likely be a Puig or Cespedes-type. Comments? is this a no-brainer?
So Altuve for Bryant, Darvish and #12 pick? Sounds decent
Does sound a bit no-brainy
@Grey: Thanks, Grey. always good to get your take on things.
No problem, Dennis
Seems like there are alot of good hitters in around rounds 8-12 of say 12 team league.
Almost debating if it is better this year to snag some good pitchers earlier (say round 2,4 and perhaps 6) with some good hitters around 1,3 and 5.
I really seem to like some of the 3b’s around 8-12 rounds (like Devers, Castallanos, etc) and outfielders from your top 40 in there also,
People will probably say that should not really try to develop a strategy like this but it seems to make some sense to me.
Never works out, okay…It can work, but I see no reason why you can’t wait until 50 overall for an SP
@Grey: thanks for feedback. So you are saying it would be fine to have say Carlos Carrasco as your ace and down from there as opposed to having say Chris Sale or Corey Kluber as ace from 2nd round and then Carrasco as sp#2?
I suppose you and perhaps are saying that the hitter you give up getting in round is not worth it to get someone like Sale or Kluber; am I kapeeshing??
Thanks again as usual for help.
finally watching americans, god damn this show is awesome. some funny lines too, at end of season 2 when they have to flee their house in the middle of the night when they find out merrick is in town and has likely killed george and kate and paige says “something is wrong with you guys” phillip’s “there’s a lot wrong with us but now let’s just pack and go”
Ha, took you long enough…. Yeah, it’s likely best show on TV right now
@Grey: yeah right up there with saul territory. only shows i know i’m caught up on that are still on are fargo, saul, curb, deuce. i’m sooooo using that “there’s a lot wrong with us (or just me) but c’mon pack we gotta go”
did you ever see Oz, about a prison, done by some of the guys from homicide (not the Wire guy though)
I watched 1 1/2 seasons of Oz, it was solid, but so much anal sex and Nazis, it was tough to binge and then I just stopped…
@Montezuma’s Revenge… right now: holy crap, finished season 2, while i did see beeman not giving up the echo disk (he didn’t really seem to have access to it, and if he did somehow attempt to break into it he’d have been caught probably right away) i DID NOT see that claudia would be sent to try to force them to make paige a 2nd gen agent. this is a stupid plan for the center as well, i mean, what, if she refuses would they kill their own VERY useful FOR YEARS agents liz and phil (and obviously paige/henry)? seems hard to believe they’d put themselves in that position, and that position is VERY likely. i know for a fact i’d attempt to run to west coast (it’s mentioned soviets have no real influence there) if i was say 18 and told not only were my parents spies, but I HAVE to join this cause simply because i’m their kid? call b.s. on that.
Paige becoming an agent was awesome, so unexpected, but makes perfect sense…
@Grey: i don’t yet know how this ends up, but the center forcing this seems nuts on their part. where they really going to off their own useful agents if she refused? and once they tell her she becomes a liability IF she doesn’t agree .
(don’t tell me if that’s actually dealt with later of course). liz/phil obviously agreed to do this with their lives and i’d see why the center would want a 2nd generation agent but that’s a pretty big ultimatum to send out.
Renfroe bit on the video is golden.
Thanks!
So did you actually have to wait on line or wasn’t there a slot by the front that you missed?
I lowered my head and went to the back of the line, like any emasculated male
Grey-13 team AL plus Atl, Mil, St L, NY M, Ariz, and Cubs. 6×6 roto OBP the extra catagory. No salaries and keep forever. Do you like any of the following? Ozuna and I Happ for Machado, D Gordon and I Happ for Machado or Yelich and I Happ for Machado. Thank you.
What are you trying to do? Get rid of Machado?
Not at all. I am concerned that he may not sign with one of our teams and I think the Yelich and Happ offer may be fair.
Hmm… These trades aren’t great, I guess Gordon one if you need steals, and are worried about Machado going to a team that won’t qualify him
@Grey: thanks Grey. I don’t have to and may not do anything. I like to get your thought on these things to make sure I am thinking of everything. Thanks again.
No problem
How do you feel about this teams chances in a 14 team 6 cat H2H with OPS instead of average and adding in strikeouts
C- W Castillo
1B- Rizzo
2B- Chris Taylor
SS-lindor
3B- Rendon
OF- Puig
OF-Happ
OF- E Rosario
Util- J Gallo
Bench- Albies
Bench- Brinson
Bench- W Calhoun
I think you’ve set yourself up for success… Especially love that IF, and your OF is kinda sexy too…
How early do you start drafting, Albright?
First draft is prolly third week of Feb… I prefer the last possible moment tho…
How deep do we have to go for some Grichuk?
Or does he make you want to Upchuk?
Soon, my friend, soon
Grey thanks for all of your timely advice and hard work. Really like the added touch of a quick & dirty video blurb as you unveil your rankings for each position.
My question: 16 team league. Keeper. 5X4 Standard except no WHIP so Pitching is slightly devalued. Once a week lineup: starting infield, 3 OFers, DH plus 4 Spers & 2 RPers:
At the end of our auction we keep 10 players (including players we grab from the FA draft pool that cost no $$$). Here is 2 possible outcomes including a 2nd that involves a trade. Which group do you like best?
Group 1:
1B Freeman Atl*
2B Merrifield KC*
SS: Turner Was*
3B: Turner LAD or Castellanos Det (Bid, Castellanos should be cheap)
OF Upton LAA*
SP: Kluber Cle*
SP: Scherzer Was (Bid….would own him for 2 years)
SP: Lester (I am stuck with him..)*
RP: Rivero Pit*
Last player either Zimmerman Was* or Gray NYY*
*Carry over from last year…
Group 2:
1B Goldschmidt Ari (gained in trade), would own him 2 years
SS: Turner Was*
3B Rendon Was or Sano Min or Turner LAD (Bid)
OF: Upton LAA*
OF Davis Oak (gained in trade)
OF: Cain KC or Buxton Min (Bid)
SP: Kluber Cle*
SP: Lester CHC *
SP: Gray NYY*
RP: Rivero Pit*
After those players, I have a long way to go during the Free Agent draft . We can trade picks. I have to wait roughly 150 picks before pick again. I went for it and lost in the conference finals….
Any help would be greatly appreciated.
@CanIgetahit?…HIT!:
Roster is a total of 28 players. Should have mentioned that.
Thanks again.
Group 2
Hey, good evening Grey,
Who do you like best of of this group:
Yu Darvish
Luis Castillo
Aaron Nola
Lance McCullers
And how close he is to your 2nd choice. Cheers!