Welcome back baseball, how I missed ye. FanDuel has us set up for a 13-game slate for our first full day back. Overall, the pitchers on this slate are hot garbage, or have brutal matchups. My favorite pitcher on today’s slate is Domingo German ($8,600). German had one start back since coming off the IL before the All-Star Break in which he went six innings, allowing one run and struck out six. He threw 80 pitches in that outing and looked at back to the top of his game. Today, he faces the Blue Jays, who have an 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which ranks 24th in the league. Domingo German’s price combined with his upside makes him my must play arm on tonight’s slate. Let’s take a look at the rest of the FanDuel slate.
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Gerrit Cole, SP: $11,400 – If you want to pay up for the pitcher with the highest strikeout rate on the slate, here’s your chance, but it comes with a tough matchup with the Rangers in hot Arlington.
Robbie Ray, SP: $9,400 – This one scares the poop out of me too, but Ray has legit K-upside. The Cardinals have big, righty power bats, which is where the damage could come from as they have the 10th best wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Yonny Chirinos, SP: $6,800 – If I’m looking to pay down, this is most likely where I’m going. Over his last five starts (yes, I said starts), Chirinos has gone 39 innings pitched and has a 3.00 ERA. Over those five games, he’s gone no fewer than six innings in every start.
Matt Olson, C/1B: $3,800 – The only thing keeping this from a lock play is the weather in Oakland, but a matchup with Ivan Nova should mean good things for Olson.
Joey Votto, C/1B: $3,600 – I believe this is the only Coors bat I’m recommending. Listen, if you wanna play them, go for it, we know what Coors does to even the best pitcher. However, both Sonny Gray and Jon Gray have been pretty good this year and their pCRA’s (for those who haven’t looked into this stat, here’s what gets factored in) have been better than their ERAs allowed (Jon: 3.66 vs 3.84, Sonny: 3.25 vs 3.59).
Brandon Belt, C/1B: $3,400 – We get Belt outside of Oracle Park and into Miller Park, one of the biggest park upgrades there are.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $3,700 – Adam Wainwright has allowed a .241 ISO and .407 wOBA to left-handed batters and Marte is #goodatbaseball.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $3,400 – The Yankees face Aaron Sanchez and it’s definitely a spot I want to take advantage of. The only problem is the Yankees are expensive. Torres is reasonable and lets me get a piece of the lineup with a 7 implied run total, highest on the slate.
Jason Kipnis, 2B: $3,000 – Kyle Gibson struggles against lefties and the Indians will most likely roll out seven of them. Kipnis is reasonable and has fared well against him in the past.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,900 – Sean Anderson is meh, allowing 40.6% hard contact and while he may be able to hide the poor results in Oracle Park, Miller Park is less forgiving.
Justin Turner, 3B: $2,800 – Eduardo Rodriguez is one of the most confusing pitchers in the game. Are you good or are you not good? He could turn in a gem, but the Dodgers are dangerous and Turner has hit lefties well this year.
Matt Thaiss, 3B: $2,100 – Who? Punt play with upside. Hasn’t done much in 10 plate appearances with the Angels, but in 372 plate appearances in AAA has 14 homers and a 15.9% walk rate.
Didi Gregorius, SS: $3,400 – Happy to fill a bad position with a upside Yankee.
Chris Taylor, SS: $3,000 – Shortstop stinks today, but Taylor leads off against lefties and has a .284 ISO and .392 wOBA. Crushes them.
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $3,900 – It’s super impressive what Ohtani has done while recovering from TJS. He’s put up a .301 ISO against righties and face Mike Leake today.
Aaron Hicks, OF: $3,700 – Hicks was heating up heading into the break and should be the third Yankee bat I fit in to complete my mini-stack.
Khris Davis, OF: $3,200 – I expect Krush to come out hot in the second-half as the rest should’ve helped his body heal.
Nick Castellanos, OF: $3,200 – Castellanos against lefties is a crusher.
Hunter Renfroe, OF: $3,000 – Refroe is the king of crushing lefties. His .509 ISO against southpaws should have Keuchel shaking in his boots.
Franmil Reyes, OF: $2,900 – Can anyone say back-to-back jacks?
Jarrod Dyson, OF: $2,800 – Leading off for the Diamondbacks against a pitcher that struggles versus left-handed batters.
Kevin Kiermaier, OF: $2,800 – I haven’t picked on home run gifter Dylan Bundy yet, so here’s a cheap option to try and take advantage.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No precipitation in the forecast today, so all the games are safe. Overall, the temperatures are hot across the country, except on the West Coast, where the Padres/Braves and Athletics/White Sox will play in temperatures below 75; so bump down the bats just slightly in those games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The Yankees lead the way as a massive -280 favorite, followed by the Astros (-198) and the Athletics (-198). In terms of run totals, Coors leads the way with a total of 12, followed by the Dodgers/Red Sox (11), Yankees/Blue Jays (10.5), and Angels/Mariners. I’m not sure I’m going to bet the under in the Rockies/Reds game, but I’m certainly leaning towards it. My favorite play so far is the Diamondbacks team total, which I just caught at 3.5 runs, so I’m hammering the over.
