Welcome to September baseball, where I get new call ups mixed up with running back handcuffs. FanDuel has us set up with a 15-game slate to start the weekend. There are three things that are certain in life: death, taxes, and the Tigers being terrible against right-handed pitching. Since the All-Star Break, the Tigers are tied for the second-worst wRC+ against righties, while striking out at the highest clip (28.5%). The Tigers face Homer Bailey ($8,200), who has been excellent over his last eight starts, outside of a disastrous start against the Cubs. In fact, over his last four starts, Bailey has a 2.25 ERA in 24.1 innings, while striking out 27 batters. I’m praying to the fantasy gods that Homer can keep that success rolling today. Let’s take a look at the rest of today’s slate.
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Dinelson Lamet, SP: $8,400 – This all about how bad the Rockies have been of late. They’ve dropped nine in a row and have gone 15-36 since the All-Star Break. Lamet has put together a really nice finish to the 2019 season and should keep it rolling tonight.
Gleyber Torres, 2B: $3,700 – Yooooooooo….the Red Sox are rolling out Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin sported a 5.79 ERA with the Brewers before they called it quits. I cannot imagine his Red Sox debut is going to go well.
Jeff McNeil, 2B: $3,300 – Zach Eflin has been so bad against lefties this year, allowing a .363 wOBA with 14 taters. McNeil is just a professional hitter and I fully expect a multihit game from his today.
Luis Arraez, 2B: $2,600 – This is just too cheap for Arraez, who has a near .400 wOBA (.392) against right-handed pitchers this year.
Bo Bichette, SS: $3,800 – There was a point in August where Bichette had just ridiculous numbers against lefties. Oh, wait, .298 ISO and .453 wOBA are still ridiculous.
Aaron Judge, OF: $4,200 – If I’m paying up, I’m going straight to Judge against Chacin.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,200 – Eflin against lefties – it’s a thing.
Jake Cave, OF: $2,500 – Cave has struggled with strikeouts but gets a lovely matchup against Plutko, who only has struck out 16.1% of the batters he’s faced.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s a little bit of precipitation in the forecast for the Yankees/Red Sox game, but it doesn’t seem very threatening. There is actually pretty decent wind blowing in for the Yankees/Red Sox, Phillies/Mets, and Rangers/Orioles games, giving a bump up to the pitching in those games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As of this writing, Kershaw and the Dodgers (-280) and Bailey and the Athletics (-260) are the two biggest favorites on today’s slate, followed by the Twins (-198). There are also only two games with totals in double digits, being led by the Twins/Indians (10.5), followed by the Cubs/Brewers (10), but to be fair, there’s no line/total out for the Red Sox/Yankees or Astros/Mariners games. Good luck today!