Welcome to the weekend! FanDuel has us set up with a full 15-game slate, so there’s a lot to comb through. I feel like every week I sit here and recommend picking on the Marlins. Well, who am I to break tradition, so let’s talk about Jacob deGrom ($12,000) who faces said Marlins. deGrom has a 33.0% strikeout rate to go along with his 3.09 SIERA. The Marlins, on the other hand, are dead last in wOBA and ISO versus right-handed pitching and have a 27.1% K%, which is second worst in the league. I know deGrom is pricy, so for my bat recommendations I’ll try and focus on affordable bats on FanDuel, but first a word from our sponsors.
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Frankie Montas, SP: $8,800 – Montas has a much-improved slider, which has helped him increase his strikeout rate and has a solid 3.83 SIERA. Today he faces the Tigers, who have the leagues second-worst wOBA and third-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Joey Lucchesi, SP: $6,200 – This comes with a huge warning sign. I’m not a Lucchesi guy, but the Pirates are sneaky awful against left-handed pitching. The Pirates are dead last in ISO, second-worst in wOBA, and fifth-worst in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. So, do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?
Max Muncy, 1B: $2,800 – Muncy and the Dodgers face Anthony DeSclafani today and while DeSclafani has had a decent bounce back, he’s still struggling against left-handed batters, giving up a .239 ISO and .388 wOBA.
Chris Davis, 1B: $2,300 – I’ve only seen a handful of apology letters so far, but I think he’s owed a lot more with how he’s been hitting the ball. Davis has a 51.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed batters and Jefry Rodriguez only strikes out 15.0% of the batters he’s faced. The Orioles might be one of my favorite cheap stacks today.
Mark Canha, 1B: $2,300 – Fresh off the IL and facing a mediocre lefty. Canha’s just too cheap.
Jason Kipnis, 2B: $2,800 – The Indians face Dylan Bundy and there’s a 69% chance we get the bad Bundy and a 29% chance we get the good Bundy. The other 2% is for unseen events, like delays due to swarming bees on the field.
Nicky Lopez, 2B: $2,600 – The Royals get a matchup with Matt Harvey, but for the most part, the Royals bats are really expensive. Lopez should hit second in today’s lineup, which gives you a cheap piece of a good lineup.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,400 – I can’t have them all be cheap. Arenado is my favorite pay up option. Being outside of Coors should keep his ownership down some.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,800 – The Athletics are another stack that I really like, but will probably end up picking and choosing the cheap pieces from. If I can afford him though, I love Chapman in this spot. Daniel Norris has been so meh and the bullpen that will follow him is awful.
Matt Carpenter, 3B: $3,200 – As of this writing, the Rangers appear to be going with a bullpen game. Someone should probably tell them they have the leagues worst SIERA and lowest K% amongst bullpens, right?
Joc Pederson, OF: $3,100 – Joc’s been struggling a little as of late, but still has a .444 ISO and .430 wOBA against right-handed pitching. The only thing you worry about is him being pinch hit for once they bring in a lefty to face him.
Alex Verdugo, OF: $2,800 – Verdugo’s just too cheap for a guy with a 42.4% hard-hit rate and just a 9.6% K% versus righties.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No precipitation in the forecast today, praise the baseball gods. There are a couple of spots that will be in the 80s, giving a bump to the bats in the Nationals/Cubs, Dodgers/Reds, Braves/Brewers, Rangers/Cardinals, and Giants/Diamondbacks games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
deGrom is the only super big favorite on today’s slate as a -230 favorite versus the Marlins. No games with double-digit run totals currently, but a slew of them between 9 and 9.5 featuring Reds/Dodgers, Braves/Brewers, Astros/Red Sox, and Royals/Angels at that 9.5 number. For my personal play, I’m going to that cheap Orioles team and playing the over on their team total if it’s set at 4 runs or under.