Chap Is Wielding A Big Stick: 3B Ranks

Finally.  A month in.  We made it.  All the smart people on the Tweeter machine have told you to be patient and wait to see what’s real and what is not.

The time for patience has ended.

The time for judgment has arrived.

The time has come for us to determine who is real and who is not real.  Third base is this week, first base is next week.

If you don’t like what I write, the rankings are below.

Matt Chapman

This is who Chapman is.  He’s streaky.  Last year, he killed your team for April and May, you dropped him in June, watched him heat up, and finally decide to pick him up in July where he was very nice (.325 with 9 HR that month), then waited patiently in August after he cooled off.  August and September he hit below .200 with 7 HR in those two months. Yes, he hit more in July than in any other two months COMBINED last season.  He had a similar month in 2021, followed by two months of dreary stats.

The question you have to answer is if he’s a changed player, or if he’s still the same guy.  I tend to think he’s on a hot streak and regression is coming. I fully expect him in May to hit below .2o0.  Don’t worry too much, his defense will keep him in the lineup.  His lineup is also loaded, so he’ll be productive.

Bank his stats, but don’t be surprised if they don’t continue at this level again for the rest of the season.

Patrick Wisdom

I’m a Cub fan, and for years have despised watching Patty Smarts play.  Three outcome players are not the kind of guys I invest in for fantasy leagues.  I call it the Chris Davis rule.

Remember Chris Davis?  Hit 50 plus bombs for the Orioles in 2013, and the debate was if he was a first round pick.  Some people did that very thing in 2014.  Davis went for a .196 AVG and down to 28 HR.  Turns out, if you don’t make contact HR are hard to hit.  So we moved on, thinking he was a fluke.  Nope!  47 HR the next season.

What does this have to do with Wisdom?  Wisdom is a low contact rate hitter with power.  He’s finishing up a massive heater, one that fueled way too much excitement for a 32 year old.  To the Statcast!

He’s always a great exit velocity guy and has light tower power.  That’s never been the issue.  For Smarts, it’s always been contact.

Oh no.  He’s still striking out 33% of the time.  His whiff percentage is high.  All his HR are to the pull side.  I’m thinking he’s going to be fed a steady diet of heaters and breaking balls.  Wisdom’s hitting .462 on changeups.  That’s really good.  But he’s not a fundamentally different hitter or player than we’ve seen for three seasons now.

Ke’Bryan Hayes

Hayes is going to play every day.  He’s elite on defense.  Also, the Pirates don’t have a lot of good players in their lineup.  Hayes interests me a lot, though, especially since he’s up to leadoff in their lineup.

I had so much fun on Statcast for Wisdom that I had to go back and try it again.  It is just ever so much fun.  You should try it too!  Peer pressure is a wonderful thing.

What did I find about Hayes?  His expected batting average is .296.  I like my batting average to be a high number like that, and it’s reassuring to see such a high number when his real BA is .227.  His slugging expected numbers and on base are also on point.  His expected OPS based on what he’s done is over .800.

Factor in Charlie Hayes’ kid’s normal speed that hasn’t materialized yet even though everyone and their BFF are getting steals, and I would use a cool word that the kids are using.  Slay the waiver wire and get Hayes for a nice boost coming up.  He’s over .300 his last ten days.

Awards

Valedictorian:  Max Muncy

Number one on the overall player rater, he’s an obvious choice for this week’s valedictorian.  He’s obviously not this good;  he hit a lot against struggling Cubs relievers and the wind blowing out in Wrigley.  He’s also at the time of this writing hitting a whopping .254.  That would be his highest since 2018, before Covid was even invented yet.

It does look like Muncy is in line to return to his 30 HR and .400 OBP days.  Just keep this in mind, here are the averages by month in 2021, his last good season.

.222

.330

.205

.315

.189

.216

Much like Chapman, expect hot and cold streaks.  He’s on a heater right now.  It’ll even out.  I did move him up in the ranks a bit, but remember who Muncy is.

Honor Roll

I bumped Rafael Devers into tier 1 along with Jose Ramirez.  Devers is the number 2 rated third baseman and has the third ROS ranking, behind Ramirez and Bobby Witt.  I think the Witt ranking is way too high for this year, so Devers gets the bump.  Love guys with a .600 SLG.  I think his walks will go up as it seems Devers is pressing to make up for a bad lineup.  Keep trusting Devers.  I know, groundbreaking stuff. Good players are good.

Detention

Of course, you didn’t draft Manny Machado to be the 43rd ranked third baseman.  Not overall player, that’s a ranking for just third base.  He’s been terrible;  he’ll be fine.  Just keep in mind this might be a .250 season with 25 HR more than last year’s career year.  Yes, there are seasons where he hit in the .250s with HR in the 20s.  I looked it up so you don’t have to.  2 seasons like that, to be exact.

Gunnar Henderson is unplayable right now.  I still think he’s a good player, but it’s not based on any statistical measures.  Those are gross.  I would get in on the Gunnar business in a dynasty but probably leave him alone for now.

Young players are having a tough time starting out the season.  Jordan Walker, Gunnar, Bobby Witt, and Josh Jung (side note:  I watched the Rangers the other day and it’s pronounced “Young.”  I kept thinking about Michael Young, noted batsman from around ten years ago.  He was good.  Jung is getting there.)  This year was a great year to fade the youngsters.

Third Base Ranks