Today’s journey through the recaps take us to the 1st basemen. They’re better than the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball (not clickbait), but by how much? How do I explain that? I have an idea! By recapping them! To recap my recap before the recap, this final ranking is from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. This is not for next year. Hayzeus Cristo, just enjoy a recap before we get into next year. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2025 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Pete Alonso – Saw someone recently say Albombso was about to get paid this offseason, after he opted out with the Mets. I love Albombso, think he’s great, I’d pay him a billion because it’s not my money that I’m thinking about in my head, but this offseason is about to be the saddest one of recent memory, methinks, and metalks like a leprechaun. Any hoo! Looking through Alonso’s numbers and the only one that stands out is his .272 average, and that was symbolized by the last game of the season. Bases loaded and Alonso hit the hardest ball of the season for himself and the Mets, and it was a lineout to the left fielder. That kinda tells you everything you need to know about hitting. Hit the ball hard and hope it falls in. Most times it does. xBA is a flawed stat, but that hard hit lineout was a .780 xBA. Alonso hit the ball hard all year, seemingly unlocking something. Preseason Rank #4, 2025 Projections: 93/36/109/.247/3 in 591 ABs, Final Numbers: 87/38/126/.272/1 in 624 ABs
2. Josh Naylor – Nailed his runs projection! Woohoo! Only three RBIs off his projections! And…nothing else. Not even remotely. If you would’ve gave me his final statline 81/20/92/.395/30 in the preseason and told me you were a time traveler, I would’ve said, “You’re a time traveler and you bring me useless info? Why didn’t you tell me what stocks to buy? I don’t need to know Josh Naylor’s statline! Not to mention, why should I trust you when you don’t even know how to write out a statline? 81/20/92/.395/30? What’s that 30 number? Is that 30 doubles?” Preseason Rank #5, 2025 Projections: 81/28/95/.261/7 in 559 ABs, Final Numbers: 81/20/92/.295/30 in 543 ABs
3. Cody Bellinger – Ya know how I always kid around that Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich are tied together in fantasy value for their careers? They’re always next to each other in drafts. They were great at the same time in 2019, then seemingly lost their power at the same time after that. Well, get ready to have your mind blown like when Cody hears the earth is round. This year’s fantasy value:
Preseason Rank #7, 2025 Projections: 104/26/81/.267/12 in 522 ABs, Final Numbers: 89/29/98/.272/13 in 588 ABs
4. Rafael Devers – I’ll take the L on calling him overrated, but can I briefly talk about how I was not wrong and justify it anyway? Cool, thanks! He was coming off a 525 ABs season in 138 games with a shoulder injury that he suffered for the whole 2nd half. No one thought he was about to get 163 games played, and if you prorate his stats down to my projections of 542 at-bats? He would’ve done way worse than his final numbers. Now that’s how you take no L’s! Preseason Rank #6 for 3rd Basemen, 2025 Projections: 95/27/89/.277/5 in 542 ABs, Final Numbers: 99/35/109/.252/1 in 607 ABs
5. Nick Kurtz – When Alonso homers, I just say Albombso! and move on to the next blurb, because there’s nothing to say for a guy who homers 35-45 times per season. It’s like how I would just say Au Shizz! for Goldschmidt for years. With that said, I need a homer call for Kurtz because he’s going to hit 40-ish homers a year and finding new ways to say the same thing makes Grey a very crazy person. Will workshop ideas over the offseason. Whatever it is, it has to be something quick and easy. With that said, I’m trying to rein in my enthusiasm for next year, but Kurtz had a 51.5% Hard Hit rate, and plays in a goofy Bing Bong Stadium. [putting handkerchief to forehead and falling over] Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 90/36/86/.290/2 in 420 ABs
6. Matt Olson – Very similar to Albombso and not just because they had the same number of at-bats and average and, actually that is partly the reason why they’re similar. Olson’s Launch Angle came down a bit (not good), but his Hard Hit% went up and he looks more like a .270 hitter now than his .250-ish career average prior to this year, much like Alonso. Will any of this continue? That’s harder to say, but not impossible! Dear Reader’s Thoughts, “Is he gonna say it then?” Okay, fine! Spoiler: I doubt it continue. Preseason Rank #3, 2025 Projections: 94/33/112/.254 in 606 ABs, Final Numbers: 98/29/95/.272/1 in 624 ABs
7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – [seeing his previous years of homers: 32, 26, 30] Me in the preseason, “Okay, how bad could Cake Batter be? Maybe he can hit 32+ homers!” Me now seeing he hit 23 homers, “How long do we have to wait for the next Vlad Jr.?” Preseason Rank #1, 2025 Projections: 96/32/108/.309/4 in 605 ABs, Final Numbers: 96/23/84/.292/6 in 589 ABs
8. Vinnie Pasquantino – Here’s where me and the Player Rater disagree. If you showed me the final statlines of Cake Batter and Pasketti, I’d say I’d want Pasketti over Vlad, because I can figure out average elsewhere, and would prefer the extra power. The Player Rater is just straight math so that I disagree with it is comical. “2+2=4? Not so fast!” Preseason Rank #12, 2025 Projections: 83/21/93/.273/1 in 561 ABs, Final Numbers: 72/32/113/.264/1 in 621 ABs
9. Freddie Freeman – He’s 36 and still chugging. He’s aging better than most. Votto hit 11 homers and .226 at 36. Shoot, he hit 12 HRs and .284 when he was 34! I don’t want to start thinking about the Lockout of 2027 yet, but it would be a real same if that’s Freeman’s last year (it’s his last contract year). Preseason Rank #6, 2025 Projections: 83/20/86/.277/10 in 536 ABs, Final Numbers: 81/24/90/.295/6 in 556 ABs
10. Michael Busch – In the preseason, I said something to the effect, “I should’ve wrote a sleeper post for Busch.” And that’s me paraphrasing me talking about something I didn’t do to make me seem more prescient! So, I mention that not to brag, because it’s not much of a brag, but to say I might have a few of these wrong from the preseason, but if you’re just looking at this as, “Busch was ranked 28th in the preseason and is 10th here, so Grey was a moron. Well, I knew that already!” That’s not accurate. Well, the moron part, maybe, but if I tell you to draft a guy aggressively like I did with Busch, that’s more accurate than, say, me saying don’t draft Freeman but he’s closer in the preseason ranking to end of the year one. Preseason Rank #28, 2025 Projections: 71/24/77/.242/2 in 507 ABs, Final Numbers: 78/34/90/.261/4 in 524 ABs
11. Yandy Diaz – My preseason projections were pretty close on Yandy but his ranking was way off. So, what does that tell us? Let’s ask Triston Casas, Yainer Diaz, Bryce–Well, there were quite a few disappointing guys not listed yet or at all. Kinda impressed with myself that I nailed Yandy’s increase in power in a new stadium. Next year, get ready to learn hitting 14 homers again, buddy! Preseason Rank #19, 2025 Projections: 87/21/69/.291 in 546 ABs, Final Numbers: 79/25/83/.300/3 in 583 ABs
12. Tyler Soderstrom – As I was saying with Yandy, I knew Bing Bong would bing and/or bong, but I failed to adjust my averages up. Similar to Coors, when balls be flying, it helps other balls to drop in and BABIP to go up, i.e., a better average. Best parks for singles: Coors, Bing Bong then Fenway. Next one is actually surprising and I doubt people would guess. I’ll let you try. (That’s not same as best parks for BABIP, but Bing Bong excels there too.) Preseason Rank #23, 2025 Projections: 63/27/71/.241 in 497 ABs, Final Numbers: 75/25/93/.276/8 in 561 ABs
13. Salvador Perez – See his recap at the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.
14. Willson Contreras – See his recap at the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.
15. Ben Rice – See his recap at the top 20 catchers for 2025 fantasy baseball.
16. Bryce Harper – As I was saying in the Yandy blurb, Harper’s fall-off was not predicted by me, and hurt. Kinda surprised at how close I came with his projected at-bats, because I wasn’t close on his other numbers. He genuinely fell off. Not massive like Christian Walker, but sizable enough where there’s actual concern, and this isn’t just a injury-riddled season to blame. Ground balls are up (not literally), and has now struggled three of the last four years. Preseason Rank #2, 2025 Projections: 89/33/96/.288/9 in 541 ABs, Final Numbers: 72/27/75/.261/12 in 501 ABs
17. Spencer Torkelson – His 2024 was so bad (10 HRs, .219) I wrote him off completely for 2025. This is the 2nd of three years where he’s putting up almost identical numbers (31 HRs, .233 in 2023). Seems like an easy guy to expect 30, .235 from, and those should be near his projections, but that is such a hard player to roster day-to-day. You see him here in the top 20, and think, “Sweet! You draft your Soderstrom’s in the top 100 and I’ll take Tork at 175-200,” and I understand that inclination, but when you’re living through a Torkelson season it’s: One homer a week and three RBIs and I want to look for someone on waivers so badly. Preseason Rank #51, 2025 Projections: 38/15/46/.215 in 304 ABs, Final Numbers: 82/31/78/.240/2 in 563 ABs
18. Christian Walker – He hit 26 homers in 2024 and I saw that and his 27 HRs this year and I briefly thought maybe his season wasn’t as bad as I remembered, and then I saw he had more than 100 ABs this year, so, yeah, lips raspberried. Much like Harper, Walker aged, and not gracefully. He went to one of the best stadiums for him and lost everything — walks down, Ks up, BABIP the same, which means things might be really dire, as he still hit .238, so Hard Hit% was down. Not great stuff there! Preseason Rank #8, 2025 Projections: 83/34/95/.254/3 in 579 ABs, Final Numbers: 72/27/88/.238/2 in 585 ABs
19. Alec Burleson – Wrote a sleeper post for Burleson and before you pelt me with tomatoes, just want to point out how he was exactly what I expected — solid average, okay everything else. Now you can pelt me with tomatoes knowing that’s all I expected and thinking that was somehow worthwhile. Hey, it’s a top 20 1st baseman! [tomato smashes head] Preseason Rank #13, 2025 Projections: 78/24/66/.287/6 in 503 ABs, Final Numbers: 54/18/69/.290/5 in 497 ABs
20. Lenyn Sosa – White Sox’s Sosa really started to break out this year. Now trade him to the Cubs and teach him how to self-administer the PEDs. By the way, I was looking at Lenyn Sosa’s Statcast page for takeaways, and found that if he called Bing Bong Stadium home he would’ve had 35 homers. Ha! Sosa doesn’t need to juice, he just needs a trade to SacTown. Preseason unranked, Final Numbers: 57/22/75/.264/2 in 518 ABs
Couple keeper questions:
How would you rank Bednar,Hoffman and Kenley?
How would you rank Michael King,Edward Cabrera, Tanner Bibee and Gerrit Cole? Can keep all for two years at $10 except King who can kept for just next year at $16.
Thank you!
You ranked the RPs assuming their teams don’t change and no one else is added
What a mess on the SPs…I guess EdCab, Bibee, Cole, King…take followups to my newest post
Hi Grey. Keeper question. My $18 Tucker for his $19 Devers and $8 Ketel Marte Thank you
Marte
I would be getting both Marte and Devers so kinda no brainer right?
Yes, take followups to my newest post
Gotta be K-Pop
Haha nice
Don’t think you are doing a Best Draft Possible, so I’ll throw mine in here. Players could not be taken earlier than the earliest they went in any of the 45 RCL drafts. (This made cheap saves tough, because guys like Pagan, Vest, and Palencia were undrafted, while Hoffman(1-yeah, somebody took him 1st overall), Bednar(115), and Estevez(120) were selected pretty early somewhere.) Went with the #3 slot, so no Ohtani, Witt, or Judge. Showing final PLAYER RATER dollars.
03 Juan Soto $42.00
22 Garrett Crochet $36.40
27 CJ Abrams $16.40
46 Seiya Suzuki $16.70
51 Cal Raleigh $46.80
70 Vinnie Pasquantino $19.10
75 Freddy Peralta $28.00
94 Bryan Woo $28.70
99 Eugenio Suarez $26.60
118 Byron Buxton $26.50
123 Shea Langeliers $20.50
142 Aroldis Chapman $20.70
147 Nathan Eovaldi $21.90
166 George Springer $30.20
171 Trevor Story $25.70
190 Cade Smith $13.20
195 Jose Caballero $3.60
214 Chris Bassitt $5.00
219 Ben Rice $14.00
238 Dennis Santana $7.60
243 Matthew Boyd $17.50
262 Hunter Goodman $22.30
TOTAL >>>>> $489.40
You can tell I’m a Cardinal fan – 4 catchers! Went with Caballero at 2B for cheap steals since it is a weak position anyway.
C Cal Raleigh
1B Vinnie Pasquantino
2B Jose Caballero
3B Eugenio Suarez
SS Trevor Story
MI CJ Abrams
CI Ben Rice
OF Juan Soto
OF Seiya Suzuki
OF George Springer
OF Byron Buxton
OF Hunter Goodman
UT Shea Langeliers
P Garrett Crochet
P Freddy Peralta
P Bryan Woo
P Nathan Eovaldi
P Matthew Boyd
P Chris Bassitt
P Cade Smith
P Dennis Santana
P Aroldis Chapman
1126 Runs: 76th best (RCL Ave 1031)
420 Home Runs: 2nd (293)
1151 RBI: 17th (993)
226 SB: 24th (173)
.2605 AVE: 74th (.2539)
103 Wins: 12th (83)
64 Saves: 323rd (69)
1355 Strikeouts: 271st (1309)
2.77 ERA: 1st (3.71)
1.025 WHIP: 1st (1.194)
Haha, this is awesome! Shows that you can ace your draft from any draft spot and don’t need to draft anything early or late, just have to draft correctly…Good stuff, Vin!
8 keeper league (25 draft -> 33 player roster). From your season-long posts concerning drafting/keeping SPs, I assume I should keep no more than 4 SPs.
$11 Skenes
$7 Misorowski
$6 Abbott
$6 McLean
$6 Rogers
$8 Messick
$6 Eovaldi
$8 Pablo Lopez
$6 Schlitter
$6 Gil
$6 Preister
—> (1) Assuming I keep 4, please advise.
(2) Non-SP. My other keepers are likely to be:
$12 Caminero
$7 Soderstrom
$7 Colson Montgomery
$6 Marsee
But other possibilities are:
$7 Agustin
$6 Beavers
$16 Naylor
$21 Langford
$32 Lindor
–> 2a. Do you agree with my non-pitcher keepers?
–> 2b. Do you agree with my allocation (4 SP; 4 other) or should I keep another hitter (1) Assuming I keep 4, please advise.(I’d like to keep Naylor but await your opinion).
Btw, I kept expensive keepers in past years, and my draft showed it. That’s why I’m shying away from Langford and Lindor.
Is that Josh Naylor?
Caminero, Naylor, Lindor, Langford, Skenes, Misorowski, Eovaldi, Rogers — but I don’t know anything about your league, size, etc
12 team, 2 catcher. Fairly deep (396 players). Since 2 catchers, Agustin is also relevent.
Yes (Naylor = Josh).
I don’t see why you’d shy away from keeping big names then
I see Langford costing less than $21 (Soderstrom comparable @ much less).
I reasoned that Lindor, @ $32 was probably priced at full value. But since the, I heard your B_Don podcast which has convinced me to keep Lindor.
Okay, I think in general in a 12 teamer keeping your stars is the way to go
Kurtzy and a bow? Kurtzy and a bow for his 45th of the season!
I like that too!
Nick Kurtz just homered: Whiplash!
(bc it sounds like ‘neck hurts)
Ooh, I like that!
Love Kurtz! Like the Nazareth song. Or Incubus. You choose!
Kurtz So Good!
That is so good too
Haha, Home Runspringa!
Kurtz nickname is “Big Amish” since he is from Lancaster, PA.
The only Amish word I can recall is Rumspringa, which is fun to say. My vote.
Home runspringa!
Harper is fighting off E. coli, salmonella, listeria, and campylobacter. It took away his power.
HAHAHA, don’t worry, he’s got the raw milk diet pumping thru his veins
Kurtz is unofficially know as Nicky Nukes.
I kind of like Crack the Sky!
Crack the sky, Nicky Nukes!
Kurtz Spurtz! (Ewww.) No? Okay
Ew…haha
$260 12-TEAM MIXED 5X5. Have Kurtz $1, Rice $1, Schwaber 23, Alonso 23, Mclean1, A. Chapman 1, Woo 10, Soderstrom 1, Pick my 6 keepers out of these options.
Not McLean then flip a coin, I guess Rice
Hey Grey,
A way too early look at keepers next year. 12 team mixed 5×5 with OBP/SVH
Can only Keep 7.
My first thoughts:
Naylor,Gunnar,JRam,Olson,Maikel,FTJ,Woo
I feel like I have a lot of other players other owners would be interested in so probably looking to trade a couple of pieces for an upgrade. Easier said than done ofc.
Messick has under 50 IP so hopefully I can sneak up on ppl in our minors draft.
Ivan Herrera 2
Josh Naylor 21
Gunnar Henderson 36
Jose Ramirez 41
Matt Olson 26
Jonathan Aranda 1
Maikel Garcia 16
Fernando Tatis Jr. 27
Andy Pages 6
Bryan Woo 17
Cristopher Sanchez 16
Connelly Early 1
Parker Messick 1
Lot of great possibilities…Why not keep someone like Pages, then just buy Gunnar in the auction if you want him again? Figure you save $20 on Pages so as long as Gunnar’s under $56, you’ve saved money
Thx Dawg
No problem
I will plant my flag on Rice being somewhere in the 5-10 range on next year’s list. Do you think they fill Goldy’s side of the platoon with someone else or just let Rice run with the full time job
I hope Rice, but who knows, they prolly add a platoon partner
Vinnie P was so awful for the first couple months that I cut him. Ended up using Brandon Lowe as a first baseman. 1B was bad!
Yet better than last year, according to the stats
Hey Grey, happy Monday…
Shame we already have the term Kazaam! or I would’ve suggested Kurtzaam! (*poof* the ball is gone) even though you didn’t ask for suggestions.
Anyway, hoping Devers can get at least 5 games at the hot corner next year. Would love to trade him high during the offseason for a regular 3b this year in my keeper league, but everyone is bleh other than Jose (hoseee, hoesayyyyy) and cami-toe. On the + side, it seemed like he kinda figured out how to go yard at the house that Bonds built, the HR split didn’t seem that bad and he gets more games at the Suckies.. No idea where I’m going with this.
Thanks for the 1b recap!
Haha, Kurtzaam! Haha, that’s pretty good, too bad of course! Yeah, Devers’s power didn’t dissipate, his AVG gonna take a hit there tho, w/out BABIP luck
Homer call for Kurtz:
Kurtz so good
Prolly the way I’m headed…The horror! The horror! is unfortunately a negative
Lockout. Nooooooo
Yeah, I know, hopefully not
Not sure if you have used Heart of Darkness for Kurtz, but “the horror, the horror” may work. That’s double the horror for opposing pitchers for every home run. Hard to pass up a two for one!
The horror, the horror! Is pretty good actually!
Stat average for the top 12 1st basemen:
570 AB/159 H/85 R/29 HR/97 RBI/6 SB/.278 compared to catchers:
498 AB/130 H/70 R/26 HR/79 RBI/5 SB/.260
Last year:
544 AB/141 H/77 R/27 HR/87 RBI/4 SB/.259
Vlad hit .330, but the overall average was almost 20 points worse (#12 Rhys Hoskins hit .214). Well, everything was worse.
So we had a good uptick for 1B, nice!
Awesome, Vin!
The overall rank on the RAZZBALL PLAYER RATER along with the RCL ADP in 24 drafts March 17 – 26. First base has the lowest ranked player of those taken in all 24 drafts – Casas.
21 Pete Alonso 33.5
31 Josh Naylor 57
36 Cody Bellinger 62
37 Rafael Devers 35.5
44 Nick Kurtz ND
47 Matt Olson 27
53 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 12
55 Vinnie Pasquantino 112
58 Freddie Freeman 29
67 Michael Busch 252 (19 drafts)
68 Yandy Diaz 205
71 Tyler Soderstrom 251 (19 drafts)
89 Salvador Perez 125.5
93 Willson Contreras 132
96 Ben Rice 272 (5 drafts)
98 Bryce Harper 18
114 Spencer Torkelson 267 (3 drafts)
138 Christian Walker 64
167 Alec Burleson 173
171 Lenyn Sosa ND
172 Luis Arraez 183.5
174 Spencer Steer 173
176 Ryan O’Hearn 287 (2 drafts)
211 Ernie Clement 268 (1 draft)
218 Jonathan Aranda 252 (5 drafts)
225 Miguel Vargas ND
228 Gavin Sheets 276 (1 draft)
229 Nathaniel Lowe 227 (21 drafts)
238 Kyle Manzardo 269 (7 drafts)
246 Paul Goldschmidt 164
277 Alec Bohm 164
279 Nolan Schanuel 259 (8 drafts)
281 Josh Bell ND
310 Romy Gonzalez ND
335 Wilmer Flores ND
337 Jake Cronenworth 280 (17 drafts)
338 Josh H. Smith ND
344 Victor Caratini ND
356 Colt Keith 245.5 (22 drafts)
369 Spencer Horwitz ND
400 Eric Wagaman ND
408 Kody Clemens ND
420 Andrew Vaughn 244 (5 drafts)
449 Jake Burger 100.3
475 Carlos Santana 280 (3 drafts)
626 Rhys Hoskins 233
645 Dylan Moore 258 (4 drafts)
715 Ryan Mountcastle 175
720 Pavin Smith 298 (1 draft)
833 David Fry 286 (1 draft)
883 Enrique Hernandez 249 (10 drafts)
1051 Michael Toglia 154
1152 Luke Raley 265 (14 drafts)
1177 Christian Encarnacion-Strand 218.5
1296 Triston Casas 81.5
1350 Jeimer Candelario 266.5 (2 drafts)
Casas! Ouch! Toglia, even more brutal! Yeah, wasn’t a good year for guys I targeted at 1B
Typo: .395 average for Naylor instead of .295. Unless this is for next year?
Oops, will fix!
I had Devers in 2024. He was on my no draft list in 2025. He hit 5 hr in 2nd half in 2024 and did not have a homer in his last 21 games played. I wanted no part of that shoulder injury, which was still bothering him in spring training this year. Hard pass for me. I will take the L on that and I’m ok with it. Sometimes safe is ok with a pick that early (adp was 34). The opportunity cost was too high. You can’t miss on pick that early. Doing well was in the range of outcomes but his downside was huge and seemed more likely.
Agreed, you had a logical process.
Thanks!
Yeah, agreed
I still can’t believe Boston traded him. There was baggage with him, but that return wasn’t what I would call good. I will leave it at that.
Haha yeah