We kinda had an accidental theme here! All the cool kids are looking toward the future and stuff, like here and here. This is my meager contribution!
Getting near the end, and I realized I think I only have two weeks left after this! I’m looking to do my next year’s ranks in one of those. It’s time to look toward the future.
Well, not quite. There’s like a month and change left in the season. But the focus here will shift toward the future. It’s interesting, and there’s lots of content on this site with daily notes and whatnot. Some of this will update your thinking on some current guys (as it did for me!), and others may confirm your biases.
Freddie Freeman: 2nd round pick this year
Freeman is having a typical Freeman year minus the home runs. He’s at 18 on the season, which is fine. The batting average is great at .302, but speed has dissipated. He’s at only four. Given his age (36 next season), Freeman cannot be counted on as a cornerstone in the first two rounds. Now, give me all the Freddie after that. He should continue to be a solid producer, a solidifier of sorts. With age, his bat speed has declined incrementally and is now in the bottom 17% of the league.
Verdict: If you can get him next year, wait until the round 3 or 4 area. He’s aging, the cliff can come at any time, and there’s some physical decline already. He should be safe, but only if you have two cornerstones. Another option would be Freeman if you, for some reason, take a pitcher in the first two rounds, but you read Razzball, so you wouldn’t dare!
Rafael Devers: 2-3 round this year
Oracle Park (the Giant’s stadium, in case you haven’t kept up with weird naming trends) is notoriously tough on left-handed power hitters who aren’t on steroids. There’s a 25 foot wall in right, cold and dreary weather, and left-center is deep. It’s a bottom three park in the league for left-handed power hitters.
Dang it, Rafael Devers just happens to be a left-handed power hitter. This isn’t good.
It’s been an exceedingly weird season for Devers. He started out by striking out almost every at bat. Then he caught fire, but angered the Red Sox brass and was dealt to San Fran. Now he’s hitting .226/.336/.410 in his time on the West Coast. He’s never been an athletic type, and he’s what the scouts call an “old 28” years old. I won’t touch him until the 7-8 round, if then. That’s probably pricing myself out of him, but so be it. There’s just far too many red flags to overcome his home park.
Verdict: Round 8-10 for me, which means I won’t get him due to his name value. Someone will hope for the rebound earlier, and that’s just okay.
Junior Caminero: Round 5-6 preseason
Caminero is 21 years old. He has 39 home runs before September. 94 RBI. Batting average 14 points above league average. Yes, this is a long term asset here. Once he harnesses his league best swing speed even more, this is a fantasy monster for the next decade.
Verdict: Get him in round two, he’s actually the perfect guy to pair with Freeman. Electric talent, and will be a value in the second round.
Bryce Harper: Round 2-3 preseason
This one pains me. Harper has been my pick for a decade, and he’s not 32. He’s only ranked 15 on the Rater at first base. The profile has shifted from “Perennial MVP Candidate” to “Solid player.” I’ll always take him higher than most, but the elite nature of his game is in the rear-view mirror. Still valuable as he compiles stats for his Hall of Fame resume, but not what he once was.
Verdict: To get value back, probably in the 5th round.
Here’s the ADP data from preseason, and my take on these guys and their values for next year. I used composite values from FantasyPros from the five major sites.
Rank | Player Name | ADP (Overall) | Your Notes |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 13.4 | I’ll always take him in the first if available |
2 | Bryce Harper | 19.4 | See above |
3 | Freddie Freeman | 24.2 | See above |
4 | Matt Olson | 28.6 | Down, 2022 isn’t coming back |
5 | Rafael Devers | 31.2 | See Above |
6 | Pete Alonso | 37.4 | Steady value |
7 | Josh Naylor | 69.8 | Depends on location |
8 | Christian Walker | 78.0 | Undraftable |
9 | Yainer Díaz | 78.6 | Catcher |
10 | Salvador Pérez | 80.8 | Catcher |
11 | Cody Bellinger | 83.0 | Steady value |
12 | Willson Contreras | 97.2 | Value down, no catcher eligibility |
13 | Triston Casas | 103.2 | Late round flier |
14 | Jake Burger | 110.8 | Late round flier |
15 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 112.6 | Solid mid round pick, probably in the 60s |
16 | Spencer Steer | 131.8 | Probably after pick 200 |
17 | Alec Bohm | 143.6 | Steady value |
18 | Paul Goldschmidt | 155.8 | Late round flier |
19 | Luis Arraez | 161.4 | only good for average |
20 | Isaac Paredes | 164.6 | Higher, he’s in a good park |
Rank | Player Name | ADP (Overall) | Your Notes |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Ramirez | 5 | Still the top |
2 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 13.4 | no longer 3B |
3 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 24.8 | Way too high. I’m not taking him above round 5 |
4 | Austin Riley | 29 | Injuries for two years. Gonna be some else’s issue |
5 | Rafael Devers | 31.2 | See above |
6 | Manny Machado | 33 | Slightly rising due to stability. Great third round pick, good second |
7 | Jordan Westburg | 82.2 | Meh. I guess there’s upside yet? |
8 | Mark Vientos | 88.8 | Late round flier |
9 | Junior Caminero | 90.6 | See above |
10 | Alex Bregman | 92.8 | Rising, may leave Boston so keep an eye out |
11 | Jake Burger | 110.8 | late round flier |
12 | Matt Chapman | 115.6 | Probably more a 150 pick |
13 | Royce Lewis | 130.2 | Late round flier |
14 | Alec Bohm | 143.6 | steady |
15 | Eugenio Suarez | 146.8 | Gotta see where he lands |
16 | Isaac Paredes | 164.6 | see above |
17 | Tommy Edman | 184.6 | Late round CI or MI guy |
18 | Luis Rengifo | 187 | Late Round CI or MI guy |
19 | Josh Jung | 202 | I can’t quit. Round 10-15, he’s solid |
Thoughts on Barger? OF eligibility a plus but man, this guy hasn’t done much for a solid three weeks. Was cautiously optImistic that he’d be a keeper for me, but just not sure anymore.
Mmm, mulling this one over, very interesting thoughts. Only own Bryce and Willson from your list, and could not agree more. Thanks for the early thoughts !
Where’s Nicky Nukes? 2nd or 3rd rounder next year?
I will, but I’m a huge sucker for the bat only profile at first base. Pair him with like a Bobby Witt or PCA with speed and not bad!
I feel that Rice should be solidly at the back end of the top 10 for 1B next year. Incredible rookie year that is not getting as much helium as it should. Weird considering the market he plays in
working on full ranks, he’ll be there somewhere most likely.