Fantasy Baseball Advice

Allow me an ignorant rant: If you are a baseball fan you know this is the most important time of the year outside of October. Interleague play has taken over MLB and it represents a very important part of baseball: the fans. The people who buy the $4 hot dogs and $8 beers. Sure you may think interleague play is just to sell tickets, but fans buy tickets! People love rivalries and when its time for the Arizona Diamondbacks to play the Kansas City Royals IN KANSAS CITY–well, as a fan I just need to be there. You can taste the bad blood between Willie Bloomquist and Billy Butler. And what fan isn’t in attendance or watching at home when the Mariners are taking on the Colorado Rockies. Hipsters and cowboys alike all watch with anticipation as these heated rivals duke it out. You can just tell Ichiro HATES Carlos Gonzalez, and you can cut that tension with a knife. Let’s not forget Cleveland and Miami duking it out to settle….Um……Well…Who gets LeBron back?

In all seriouslyness, there are some very cool rivalries taking place this weekend including the North and South sides of Chicago squaring off for the title of “Worst Baseball Team,” The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies try and decide whose fans are drunker and whose are more obnoxious? And clearly every Oriole in the clubhouse already hates Bryce Harper. So, there’s that.  Here’s what happened in fantasy baseball last night:  **Extra Special Interleague Edition**

Justin Verlander - Complete game 1-hit shutout, 12 Ks. Brought a no-no into the ninth, buh Josh Harrison broke it up with 2 outs left. Asked about the tough luck, Verlander shook it off and just stressed how great interleague play is. For the fans.

Delmon Young - Everyone (except Mel Gibson’s) favorite angry outfielder went 2-for-4 with 3 RBIs. After the game, he was spotted getting his picture taken with the Hank Greenberg statue.

Paul Konerko – Hit a first inning HR off Jeff Samardzija. Jeff Samardzija came back out in the third and was all like, “Oh yeah? In yo’ face, Paul Konerko!” Literally, pitchslapping him. The injury sounds like it’s going to be just some minor bruising, i.e., Konerko should be fine. For seriouslyness, it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy and I hope all is okay. At least he seems like a nice guy, I only read the box scores.

Addison Reed – Got his 4th save. 4-for-4 in save opportunities since taking the job, that one 6 ER Kazaam! has been his only misstep. Reed is the man for now.

Kerry Wood – Ended his career this afternoon by striking out the only batter he faced. It was 19 off from his career high, but whatevs we’ll let it slide. Finishes his career with a 10.3 strikeouts per 9.0 IP rate, 2nd in ML history. He left to a standing ovation and a hug with his sonny. It was such a nice moment, it made Cubs fan forget how bad he’s been this season. Ahhhh, warm embraces with father and son and interleague matchups, this is what baseball is about people.

J.P. Arencibia – 3-for-5 with 6 RBIs, 2 HRs. His third straight game with homer run! ALL HE DOES IS HIT HOME RUNS! Is your fantasy team in need of home runs!? Need a catcher? Why not pick up J.P. Arencibia!

Rajai Davis – 2-for-4 with 2 HRs and 4 RBis. Not sure why I’m telling you, you don’t own him anyway.

Yan Gomes – 1-for-2 with a HR as the Jays absolutely crushed the Mets putting up 14 runs. Grey covered Gomes yesterday. If he continues hitting, and more importantly, playing, Yanny the singer/songwriter/baseball player could be a sneaky add with his catcher eligibility. He also plays a number of positions (none very well I read). Make sure you monitor closely.

Andy Pettitte- Yankees combined to shutout the Reds. Pettitte pitch 8 IP with 9 K. Wow. Might be worth a look, he gets the Royals next week. Pettitte added that he agreed with Justin Verlander about how awesome interleague play is…for the fans.

Robinson Cano – 2-for-3 with his 4th home run. Still one more than Albert! Robbie, Robbie getting hits like it’s his hobby. No–like it’s his jobby! It’s actually his jobby.

Adrian Gonzalez – 1-for-4 with just his 3rd home run. I’m sure that .273 average should go up well above .300 but I’m not sure Adrian is the 30+ home run player we all once thought he was. 25 seems more realistic. I say this because he’s on my team and I’m in my 5th stage: acceptance.

Martin Prado – 2-for-4 with a HR and 3 runs. Now has a 10 game hitting streak and 6 straight multi-hit games. Martin Bravo is more like it! Right?!

Edwin Jackson – 8.0 innings pitched 1 ER with 8 Ks but the Nats can’t muster any offense and lose in extra innings with a Nick Markakis Sparkakis. Oh, but the K’s, the glorious Ks! I’m not sorry, Mr. Jackson, I’ll take this fantasy start any day of the week.

Heath Bell – Pitched a clean 9th inning to get his 4th save. If you still own Cishek or Mujica it may be safe to drop now. Carlos Zambrano earned his second straight win 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K. Ozzie Guillen loves Carlos Zambrano magic, he said he reminds him of a young Fidel Castro. No wait–Heath Bell said that. Will he lose the closer’s job now!?

Adrian Beltre – 2-for-3 and 2 RBIs with his 8th HR. Yo, Adrian! You did it. (I promise that’ll be my only Rocky joke.) Josh Hamilton stole a base, but went homer-less. Pathetic.  You can’t win, Hamilton!  (Sorry.)

Krispie Young – Returned from DL to DH and went 1-for-4 with a 2 run double. It’s good to have Krispie back, he is good at baseball (*Pro Tip!). His BFF Justin Upton (they are best friends in my mind, at least) went 2-for-3 with 3 runs. J-Ups is slowly but surely making me feel better for drafting him so high, he’s just happy to have his best friend back.

Kevin Millwood –  Complete game 2-hit shutout of Rockies at Coors. His complete game first in 9 years! He struck out 7.  Prince, “He’s pitching like it’s 1999.”

Ryan Braun – 3-for-4 with the slam and legs and a side of mash (3 hits!). Mmmmm, breakfast food!

Denard Span – 4-for-5 with 3 runs and 3 RBIs in his return from a hamstring injury. Pretty good, I guess but I’d be more impressed if he stole a base, too. The Twins owned this game as Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau all chipped in multi-hit efforts. Grey was right! Those Twins are hot-hitting! PICK UP ALL THE TWINS!  Except Dozier.  Snooze.

Mike Trout – 3-for-4 with a stolen base and a triple. If you are fishing for a compliment, Mike Trout, no need. You are quite the catch. That Albert, however, 1-for-4, still sort of floundering.

Jered Weaver – 7.0 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 4 Ks as Weaver rebounded huge after last week’s 8 ER debacle. I guess you don’t have to drop him anymore. Scott Downs came in this game in the 8th, and was replaced with Ernesto Frieri in the 9th after the Angels scored 3 runs. Not sure what to make of this yet, hopefully just Mike being a Sciosciapath and he removed Downs because it was no longer a save opportunity. Think of the fantasy owners, Mike!  Or maybe Mike was removing Downs from the closer role because Downs hadn’t done anything, like Walden before him.

Melky Cabrera – 2-for-3 with 2 runs in a high scoring game with very few fantasy implications with Buster Posey out. Anyone own Angel Pagan? He had 3 runs!

Josh Donaldson – 3-for-5 with a home run. Wait. Who is this?

Matt Holliday – 1-for-3 with a 2-run home run. It was Holliday’s 9th home run as the Cards lost to the Kemp-less Dodgers. Lance Lynn pitched 6.0, 9 hits, 4 ER, and 5 Ks. Double L, It was fun while it lasted.

Lance Berkman – Pinch hit HR in the 9th to tie it as the Big Puma, baseball’s resident super hero BerkMAN saves the day only to be foiled by his arch nemesis Fernando Salas (0.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB).

Brian Wilson is donzo.  I called this one about 48 hours prior.  You can put it on the beard…. Goodbye!  The crizzappy thing for me is I told everyone to pick up Santiago Casilla to replace Wilson, and I picked him up too.  I mean, I literally grabbed Casilla while the trainer was looking at Wilson’s arm on Thursday.  So, of course, I dropped Casilla when Wilson was supposedly okay on Friday and Rudy grabbed him on Saturday before I could.  *shakes fist*  Rudy!  No one really knows who’ll follow in Wilson’s non-conformist footsteps.  He leaves a long shadow that smells of dirty socks.  Sergio Romo has been a great MR for a couple years, while Casilla is rumored to be the favorite and Bochy brought him into the 8th in a tie game on Saturday.  The mystery of ‘Who replaces Wilson?’ is trapped inside Bochy’s enormous head.  To get the answer, you have move Bochy’s head like one of those wooden labyrinth marble mazes and hope the answer comes out his mouth and not one of the other holes.  I’d grab Casilla and Romo, in that order.   I actually even grabbed Affeldt for situational saves, but I realized I couldn’t speculate that deep — don’t have the bench room, yo — so I lost him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Jacoby Ellsbury – That hard C you heard was the crunch of Brignac falling on a crapton of fantasy baseballers’ (<–my mom’s term!) number one outfielder.  Doctors are saying Ellsbury has a subluxation, laymen are saying he has a dislocation of the shoulder, my Asian woman neighbor who’s always working on her lawn said, “Potato-potahto, you’re screwed.”  For the next six to eight weeks, he’s D’Ellsburied.  If he fails to respond to rest, there’s a chance he’ll need season-ending surgery.  I say put a cone on his head and shove him in a dog crate.  Gotta respond to that kind of rest.  If you owned Ellsbury, you should be able to find steals — SAGNOF! — on waivers.  His combo on speed, power, runs, RBIs, average… Well, it’s a bitter pill(sbury) to swallow.

Jason Repko – 0-for-3, as he started yesterday in CF for the Sawx.  Jason Repko is the answer to the question, “Who is Jason Repko?”  “Who’s the thirty-one year old has-been in the outfield?” “This is the Red Sox depth?” and “Wait, what?”

Mike Aviles – 1-for-4 and his 2nd homer in as many games after he took over the leadoff spot.  In the big picture, I’m not a fan of Aviles, but if you have a slow starting MI photobombing your big picture, I could see working with Aviles.  Just don’t be jockin’ Mike Aviles to my dismay.

Cody Ross – 1-for-2, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer in as many games.  No one really likes a Cody, except Kathie Lee, but if he’s hitting there’s that.  BTW, with Big Papi, Youk, Ross, Aviles, Shoppach and Repko in the starting lineup yesterday, is it me or does it seem like Theo was secretly replaced by Brian Sabean?

David Wright – Decided to play through the pain and homered on Saturday, and has gone 5-for-9 in his two games back.  I don’t know.  I’m trying not to be a Mets player hater here, as I’ve been accused of in the past, but here’s my take.  I think Wright’s a gamer.  He’s shown it in the past.  At one point in 2009, he was battling concussion symptoms, lingering groin soreness, a flu and a strain behind his knee all at the same time.  And he still got on the field.  Can I dig it?  Yes, I can.  He’s like the “It’s merely a flesh wound” guy.  But he still hit 10 homers that year in 144 games.  I’d be concerned that he’s playing with a broken pinkie and it’s not healing properly, so it ends up costing his numbers in the long run.

Ike Davis – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his first homer.  I gotta say, people in the comments talking about dropping Ike Davis after 10 days of games is a bit crazy.  If he hits 3 more homers in April (still have half a month!), he’s on pace for 24 homers for the year.  Isn’t that kinda what you expected from him?

Brandon Belt – 1-for-3 with a steal with the start.  Bochy’s marble must’ve fell out the right hole.

Ryan Vogelsong – 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks vs. the Pirates.  In the rankings, I wrote something about how Vogelsong would be a solid spot starter against weaker offenses.  And that’s me paraphrasing me!

Matt Moore – 6 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 12 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Now has 9 walks in 13 innings.  Did Ollie Perez and Matt Moore make a wish while peeing in the same fountain?

Luke Scott – 1-for-4 with a homer in two straight games.  After Luke Scott hit a homer on Saturday, I grabbed him for Sunday’s game.  He’s like a slightly less streaky, Carlos Pena.  He can hit 8 homers in a month, then a buck twenty-five for another month, then get hurt during his home run trot.  April looks like the month he hits 8 homers.  Or April powers, bring May sours.

Hector Noesi – There are Noesi starts in MLB, but OAK @ SEA sure isn’t one of the hardest.  That said, 8 shutout innings with 6 Ks is pretty sweet.  He has potential to be the King of the Marginers.  “I name this land, Pineiroton, after one of our forefathers.”  That’s Noesi taking the King of the Marginers title a little too seriously.

Edwin Jackson – A complete game victory against the Reds with only 1 ER, 3 baserunners, and 9 Ks.  Don’t get too excited.  You take the win out of his name and you’re left with ‘Jacked, son.’  In shallow leagues, he’s a 6th SP or streaming candidate.

Omar Infante – 1-for-5 with his 4th homer.  Eh, only 4 more than Stanton.  I’m not bitter.  Nah.  I will now down a bottle of NyQuil and operate heavy machinery.

Hanley Ramirez – 7 for his last 9 with a homer.  Hey, look what the cat dragged in –> 2010 Hanley.

Heath Bell – Could there be an easier save opp than a 3 run lead at the Crayola Canyon against the Lastros?  If there is, let Heath Bell know because he could use it.  Lucky for his owners, 2 of the runs were credited as unearned.  Wouldn’t handcuff him yet, but I’d be a little more aggressive fishing for waiver saves if I owned him.

Brandon Beachy – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks, which comes after Mike Minor went 7 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 baserunners, 4 Ks on Saturday.  If Leo Mazzone were around, he’d be on the bench rocking back and forth like The Masturbating Bear to the Braves young pitching.

Jason Heyward – 1-for-3 and his 2nd homer and he’s batting .345.  After the first game of the season, I said some crazy thing like Heyward looks lost.  Well, I’m a moron, similarly to Fredi, who insists on batting Heyward 7th.  Move Heyward up!

Jonathan Lucroy – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 2nd homer.  The other Brewers catcher, Kottaras, has three homers.  So Kottaras and Lucroy combined have more homers than Pujols, Stanton, Longoria, Braun and Votto.  Gotta love early season outliers.

Mike Leake – 6 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 baserunners, 1 K.  This has no basis in fact, but it seems like Leake (which makes beautiful crystal) that he either has a 6 IP, 3 ER game or a 6 IP, 5 ER.  That’s, uh, not so, uh, good for mixed leagues.  In related news, Aroldis has 8 IP, 3 hits, no walks and 15 Ks on the year.  In case you need that told to you with teenaged girl emphasis — 15 Ks!!!  In, like, only 8 IP!!!  Plenty gnar.

Dayan Viciedo – 1-for-4 yesterday with his second homer in three games.  Viciedo is Latin for “I came, I hacked, I homered.”

Jason Kipnis – 3 for his last 7 with 2 homers.  Here’s my Jason Kipnis fantasy because I don’t believe in throwing out the baby even after three Opening Days and eight total games for the Indians.  Hey, I get it, I’m just as bad.  In the my RCL, I’ve made 23 waiver wire moves (pretty much adding and dropping my UTIL guy cause I lost Chisenhall), but, well, go read this post.

Liam Hendriks – 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners (0 walks), 4 Ks.  You know how next to the deli counter there’s a counter for starters who don’t walk or strikeout many guys and have more real world value than fantasy?  The Twins order their meat from there.

Matt Carpenter – 4-for-4, 5 RBIs and a homer.  He’s filling in for Berkman.  Carpenter’s minor league numbers look kinda utility-man-ish, so if that’s anything like Omar Infante, he’ll hit 4 homers this week.

Jake Westbrook – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 2 Ks.  And if the Twins buy their meat from the Hendriks’ section, the Cards buy their meat from Westbrook/Chris Carpenter section where pitchers are either the type no one wants that the Cards turn into aces or the aces they turn into meat.

Bryan Shaw – Recorded his 2nd save of the year yesterday.  Now has more saves than Sean Marshall.  David Hernandez and Putz were used the previous day (and were ineffective), but there’s nothing to see here (probably).  Shaw may not get a nutter save this year.

Trevor Cahill – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 6 Ks in Coors.  I know no one’s looking at rankings anymore because we’re a whole 9 games into a 162 games season, but I liked Cahill in the preseason.  I still do.

Krispie Young – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and a slam & legs, hitting .364.  This was his fourth homer… To tie Omar Infante!  Since this is really all about me, Krispie is literally the only guy on my RCL team that is hitting.  That is all.  Literally.

Matt Kemp – 3-for-4 with his 6th homer.  In the offseason, Kemp said he wanted to have a 50/50 season.  I didn’t realize he meant in April.

Dee Gordon – 2-for-6 with his 6th and 7th steal.  He really could steal 70 bases this year, as long as he doesn’t walk too close to a salad bar and someone mistakes him for a string bean.

Brett Myers – Astros are shopping around Myers.  Hey, I got an idea.  Trade him to the Nats for Lannan.  Or the Giants, Marlins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, Diamondbacks, Twins, back to the Astros… Is there any team that doesn’t need a closer?

Kyle Drabek – 7 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 1.42 on the year (okay, that’s through two starts).  Small sample size, schmall schample schmize.   He’s a former top prospect and you should grab him in case this is the breakout finally for this former-top-prospect-no-longer-a-prospect-maybe-is-showing-signs-of-being-a-top-prospect-again pitcher.  I got all hyphenated there, the un-comma.

Brett Lawrie – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his first homer on the year as he bats .306.  No amount of hashtags is holding back our enthusiasm for Lawrie.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs and his third homer.  What’s E5 doing at 1st?  The answer, my friend, is the blowing from Lind.

This is almost the end of the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Hellickson, Anibal, Garza and Zimmermann), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:

61. Brandon McCarthy – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This tier ends at Peavy.  I called this tier, “Holy crap, there were a lot of starters I didn’t like in the top 60 starters post.  Let’s see some names I like.  Please.”  The first two guys in this tier could’ve been called, “Young pitchers who don’t strike out many that you should start at home.”  McCarthy’s ERA at home was 2.65 and 1.11 WHIP.  As said two sentences ago, McCarthy doesn’t strike out a whole lot of guys.  Two Sentences Ago, “Why don’t you come up with your own points?”  2012 Projections:  8-11/3.50/1.17/140

62. Tim Stauffer – Last year Stauffer had a home ERA of 2.57 and a 1.13 WHIP.  I’ll give this to you nice and simple like Minnie Pearl would’ve wanted it.  Stauffer is a Hodgepadre.  Start him at home and sit him on the road.  He did have 94 1/3 IP innings at home last year, so you’re talking about a top tier reliever’s ratio stats if you hold firm when to start him.  2012 Projections:  8-10/3.80/1.24/135

63. Ted Lilly – I could’ve made a sub-tier within this tier calling these last three guys, “Pitchers that I refuse to learn from no matter how many times they burn me.”  I really believe last year we saw the beginning of the end of Lilly.  Fading Lilly, if you like pithy comments that sound like sushi restaurants.  There’s some arguments to be made that that (stutterer!) is incorrect.  He did come on in the 2nd half (2.94 ERA, 8+ K/9).  If you believe his 1st half (4.79 ERA) was just an aberration on the that-ain’t-the-real-thing tip, then I could see grabbing Lilly late.  For his price, it’s probably worth it.  2012 Projections:  11-8/3.85/1.18/160

64. Scott Baker – For those of you that can’t wait to read the end of this post just to comment that Lilly and Baker’s projections look better than Stauffer and McCarthy so why do I have them below?  Don’t.  Lilly is on the downswing of his career and Baker can’t stay healthy.  Take an upside flyer with Stauffer or McCarthy before these guys.  Those of you who didn’t read this blurb and commented about the order of the rankings, you’re not reading this either.  Too bad, I would’ve had you say hello to your mother for me.  Hey now!  2012 Projections:  11-7/3.65/1.19/160

65. Jake Peavy – If he can stay healthy, he could be valuable.  Unfortunately, my man can’t stay healthy.  Grey, you have no faith in medicine, The White Stripes.  If I were the type to say completely unsubstantiated claims with no factual evidence, I’d say Peavy can’t stay healthy because he used to do steroids.  I would never say that though.  I’m way above that!  Hopefully, there’s no my-momma-didn’t-name-me-that scandal with the reveal that he’s really Jack Peavy and actually 78 years old, but that would jive with all of his health problems.  For those worried about the integrity of our great game, I do think the name scandals will soon end with all players selling their naming rights to companies.  Now pitching for the New York Yankees… Saran Wrap!  2012 Projections:  10-8/3.75/1.21/130

66. Ryan Vogelsong – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jackson.  I call this tier, “You may get a number three fantasy starter or you may get someone similar to Nadir Bupkus.”  Last year didn’t really make sense.  Not in general, unless you’re trying to figure why you like baseball yet weren’t that crazy about Moneyball.  I think you had to not like baseball to love Moneyball.  But I was referring to last year not making sense for Vogelsong.  He’s like 40 years old (34) and he just put up his best season, even though his peripherals (pitch speed, where the pitches were, etc.) didn’t get better from the last time he was in the States.  Maybe he can repeat it.  More likely, you’re going to get a good spot starter when he faces the Padres, Dodgers and some other weaker offenses.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.26/140

67. Jonathon Niese – Last year, his ERA was 4.40 and now the Mets are moving in the fences and constructing a giant Madoff head to blow hot air out to right field.  So why is Niese in a positive tier?  Thanks, clunky expository question!  He had a K-rate of 7.89 last year and showed in the minors that is about right and could be even a little higher.  Also, he had a slightly off BABIP and poor LOB%, so he wasn’t really a near-four and half ERA pitcher, but probably three-quarters of a run better.  All these good vibes about Niese make me want to do my Grind workout.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.32/160

68. Bud Norris – You can’t predict wins.  You shouldn’t even try.  It is totally pointless.  But since I had a “Totally Pointless” college degree this is right up my alley.  You are not going to get wins with Norris.  You will get some walks and nice Ks.  I kinda want Norris on every team.  Might even draft him on my AL-Only keeper team for when the Astros realign.  2012 Projections:  7-9/3.80/1.32/190

69. Mike Leake – His ground ball percentage was solid, walks were dropped by over one per game and his strikeouts increased (though not to a rate that is drool-inducing).  If Leake can avoid dribblers through the vas deferns, he should have some success.  2012 Projections:  13-8/3.75/1.22/135

70. Ryan Dempster – I’m tentatively liking Dempster this year.  His 4.80 ERA last year was H to the ideous, but he did have a 3.70 xFIP and a 8.50 K/9.  I’ve seen worse stats.  Some of the guys above him, for instance, they have worse stats.  I don’t know the intricacies of his contract and I don’t think you should draft someone in March with the hope they’re traded, but wouldn’t shock me to see Dempster on a pennant contender before 2012 is through.  Maybe he’ll go to the Padres, if the Yankees change their name to the Padres.  2012 Projections:  12-8/3.90/1.33/190

71. Edwin Jackson – Signed yesterday with the Nats, naturally.  Looks like all the Nats needed to become a contender was to get rid of Bowden.  Great addition for the Nats’ rotation.  For fantasy, it’s a’ight.  Earlier in his career, he was better in the AL than the NL, but now that he’s matured I think it was an immaturity thing.  Funny how that works.  Best case scenario is a 3.50 ERA and kinda icky WHIP.  Worst case scenario is a 4 and a half ERA and icky WHIP.  Speaking of which, I was thinking about what’s the best best case scenario of recent times and I have to think it’s The Jersey Shore.  I can’t help watch the opening and think about how when they made that title sequence they all were probably glad to just be employed by a t-shirt shop, MTV almost axed the show before it started and none of them really had much chance for a future unless you count success by the number of acquired STDs.  Now they’re all millionaires and it’s laughable that they would work at a t-shirt shop.  Of course, the worst worst case scenario would have to be leaving the show a’la Angelina and not reaping any of its benefits.  What a stunod.  2012 Projections:  11-10/3.80/1.35/160

72. Hiroki Kuroda – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Collmenter.  I call this tier, “Solid, but unspectacular.”  See, I will draft solid with a chance for spectacular.  I’ll even take a chance on very risky with a chance for spectacular.  But “Solid, but unspectacular” gets drafted around the time I want to take flyers, so I don’t bother with this tier.  When you’re this late in a draft, it makes no sense to draft a guy like Kuroda, Danks, Buehrle, etc.  Like any investment, they’re the last one in and first one out.  It’s a shame that Kuroda was picked up by the Yankees.  When he was on the Dodgers, he was a solid back end of your fantasy rotation starter that no one ever reached for.  For whatever reason, everyone looked the other way even though his career ERA is under 3.50, WHIP’s under 1.20, walks are low and his K/9 last year was over 7.  Oh, well.  I wouldn’t draft him with your fantasy team in 2012.  AL East and The Stadium They Built Across The Street From The House Ruth Built is two negatives that don’t equal a positive.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.90/1.24/150

73. John Danks – I’ll admit I’m probably too down on Danks.  He’s the very definition of solid, but unspectacular.  A big issue with solid but unspectacular that I didn’t mention above.  If for some reason you get less than solid, you get Danks’s 2011:  4.33 ERA, 135 Ks and 1.34 WHIP.  That’s not even solid.  At 27 years old, he should revert back to solid, but unspectacular.  2012 Projections:  9-10/3.75/1.28/150

74. Mark Buehrle – Gets wins, mid-3 ERA, lots of innings… What’s not to like?  Oh, yeah, he strikes out about as much as Mystery in a college bar on “Ladies drink for free” night.  2012 Projections:  14-10/3.70/1.28/100

75. Ivan Nova – With a 3.70 ERA, he won 16 games last year in 28 games started.  Basically, Blyleven would’ve been a first ballot Hall of Famer on the Yankees.  If you’re chasing wins, I could see going with Nova, but chasing wins is a losing proposition. (<–Turn of a phrase point!)  2012 Projections:  14-8/4.00/1.33/110

76. Gavin Floyd – I’ve tied Floyd to Danks in my rankings for as long as I can remember, which sounds like a nerdy version of the Goodfellas voiceover.  Floyd is a tad under Danks because of his age.  There’s a better chance of Danks exceeding his projections than Floyd, but they’re both solid, but… Well, you know.  2012 Projections:  9-11/4.00/1.26/155

77. R.A. Dickey – I don’t like Dickey, not that there’s anything right with that.  He’s totally blown away my projections the last two years, but I can’t trust a knuckleballer.  I don’t like when I’m relying on a pitcher that has no idea where the ball is going.  I’m sure he’s used to the hate.  Can’t be easy going through puberty with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  2012 Projections:  10-9/3.75/1.27/130

78. Josh Collmenter – You thought I didn’t like Dickey?  Try my dislike of Collmenter on for size.  Too snug?  That’s cause you have both of your arms in the same sleeve.  Collmenter had a 5+ K-rate and a 4.18 xFIP.  No Ks there is a than, but no thans.  2012 Projections:  8-10/4.25/1.24/110

79. Francisco Liriano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until here.  I call this tier, “Screw you, Liriano.”  He got very lucky last year.  No, not with his FIP or xFIP or BABIP or men left on base or with runs scored for.  He got lucky I didn’t kill him.  2012 Projections:  11-11/4.30/1.35/155

80. Brett Cecil – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Volquez.  I call this tier, “You’ll probably drop most of these guys by mid-April and may not even have the nads to start them once on your team, but you may as well take a flyer.”  (The projections in this tier are optimistic.)  I saw one ‘pert didn’t rank Cecil in his top 100 starters.  I thought that was odd.  He’s only 26 years old.  Then I looked at mock draft results and he wasn’t anywhere.  I saw Joel Pineiro.  I saw Jason Hammel.  I even saw Javier Vazquez.  He retired.  We’re all that done with a 26-year-old pitcher who was being drafted last year in the top 200?  I don’t want to point any fingers, but you — yeah, you.  Don’t look behind you. — were excited about drafting Cecil last year.  Nothing in his stats say bounce back, but between him or Pineiro or a guy that retired, I’m going with Cecil.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.30/145

After the top 80 starters, there’s a lot of names, but here’s some that stand out:

Homer Bailey - With a career ERA of 4.89, I’ve warded off Homer to use two of the better father names in the history of television.  Now, I find myself seeing a scenario where I could draft him very late.  His walk rate last year was more than one walk off his previous year.  His K-rate fell a bit, but it’s still over 7.  His xFIP was 3.77 and his team should win some games.  Bailey is long overdue for a breakout.  I’m saying sleeper and grab him late.  That’s my story and I’m sticking to it until he defecates all over my ERA.  2012 Projections:  12-9/3.70/1.28/130

Chris Sale – If I had to, and I probably do, write a sleeper post about Sale or Bard, it’s a no-brainer.  It’s Sale all the way.  Sale’s only real question mark is how many innings will the Pale Hose throw him.  (BTW, if I was writing newspaper headlines in 1919, I would’ve wrote “Paint the White Hose Black.” If there’s any time travelers reading this, take it, it’s yours.)  I think Sale sees about 125 innings.  2012 Projections:  8-8/3.50/1.24/130

Daniel Bard – When the Sawx first announced Bard would start, here’s what I said, “The Sawx are toying with the idea that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation rather than as the closer.  To incorrectly quote Gordon Gekko, “That’s a toy with fleas.”  As a starter in the minor leagues, his ERA was 7.08 and walked 78 hitters in 75 innings.  Granted, this was early on in his minor league career, but I don’t see the Sawx taking a pitcher that is actually succeeding as a reliever and stretching him out to fail.  Then again, their rotation isn’t exactly five deep.  Hopefully Daniel doesn’t stay *pinkie to mouth* Bard from the bullpen.  Or should I say bullpun.”  And that’s me quoting me!  I still think the Red Sox make a last minute move to keep Bard in the bullpen and acquire another starter.  2012 Projections:  9-7/3.70/1.22/160

Brad Peacock – I already went over my Brad Peacock fantasy.  It’s January Grey’s favorite post.   2012 Projections:  9-8/3.60/1.30/170

Edinson Volquez – If he gets 200 innings, he will strikeout 200 hitters.  Look at the rest of this post and try to find another guy K’ing 200.  So why isn’t he ranked higher?  Well, there’s this little problem with him walking people like it’s his job.  It’s not his job.  If that’s getting lost in the translation, someone should tell him that is not his job.  Yo camino no trabajar!  2012 Projections:  8-12/3.75/1.33/200

Ricky Nolasco – This is the last tier.  This tier is called, “I didn’t forget these guys.  I’m just not drafting them.”  Nolasco hasn’t had an ERA under 4.50 in 3 years, but if you’re playing in a league that counts K/BB rates or guys that underperform, then by all means go with Nolasco.  2012 Projections:  12-9/4.25/1.29/150

Wade Davis – He had strikeout numbers in the minors, and I think those return from wherever they went, but I’m not drafting him on the assumption they will.  Could be a nice during-season-pickup if he gets his shizz together.  2012 Projections:  10-10/4.15/1.35/115

Carlos Zambrano – Ozzie will either bond with Zambrano and have him produce his best year since the mid-naughts or their personalities together will become so combustible that Little Havana will break from the union and form the 51st state with Ozzie becoming Supreme Leader of Little Havana and having Zambrano executed.  My money’s on the latter.  2012 Projections:  11-10/4.10/1.35/130

Johan Santana – The Mets are hoping to get 25 starts out of Johan.  The Mets are saying he’s a question mark for Opening Day.  The Mets pronounce players ready to return usually six months before they’re back on the field and they’re saying bad things already about Johan.  Instead of drafting Johan, if you’re into torturing yourself, try meeting up with random people from Craigslist’s Missed Connections.  Here’s one, “You didn’t tan, your freckles merged.  Now I want our bodies to.  I saw you at the Jiffy Lube on Tuesday.  I can’t wait another 3 months or 3,000 miles.”  2012 Projections:  7-5/3.75/1.22/80 (in 120 innings)

In the second installment of the grading process, it’s helpful to look at those sleepers I, Albert Lang, just nearly missed on – basically guys who were a push. These are players who were almost successful sleepers picks but walked too many, gave up too many HRs or just swung and missed a ton.

Dan Uggla – This is the most miraculous push in the history of the world. After Uggla’s horrendous start to the season, he rebounded to bat .234 but with 35 HRs.

Jimmy Rollins – Consensus had Rollins as a top 5 option. Rollins is 6th at the position. However a bigger pre-draft split was where he should fall overall. I thought Rollins could push 15-20 HRs and 25-30 SBs, but rest on the low end of each. He had 14 HRs and 28 SBs. We also saw his average stay below .275. If you drafted Rollins in the top 50, you are probably somewhat disappointed.

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a tricky player to write about all year. I liked him, but the hype was a little ridiculous. While I would rather have Nick Swisher, I thought Rasmus was capable of hitting .260 with 20-25 HRs and 15 SBs. Petty squabbles in St. Louis and poor health have Rasmus at 14 HRs, five steals and a .235 average. I was clearly wrong on my projection.

Jason Bartlett – I thought Bartlett could get back to batting .275 (didn’t happen: .251), but I also thought he was a good bet to reach 20 – 30 SBs (he has 23). It’s a wash, but with how bad the SS position has been, he’s been a useful figure in 2011.

Nick Swisher – God it is disgusting how dirty good Brian Cashman is – he absolutely stole Swisher from Kenny Williams. Still, the entire fantasy community also seems to sleep on Swish, as he was the 33^rd consensus OF. Well, he is the 31^st OF, so they were closer in terms of ranking.

Gio Gonzalez – I had Gonzalez as the 42^nd best SP, consensus put him around 49, and he will end up about 46^th overall. So maybe I overvalued him…or maybe not.  I predicted a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 200 Ks. Right now, he has bested my ERA prediction (3.41 ERA) and come very close to meeting my WHIP prediction (1.37 WHIP). He has 177 Ks, so he’ll likely fall a tad short of 200.

Will Venable – While, technically, I had Venable ranked higher than most people, I still warned against the hype I saw building. Specifically, I said that his ceiling of a .320 OBP and the amount of balls he swings at out of the zone wouldn’t get him anywhere near the 30 steals he approached last season. Well, he currently sits at 26 – whoops. I did add in the caveat that we could see some weird things with the Padres this year, i.e., that in the absence of any real offense, their players would be running silly and that could artificially buoy Venable’s SB number. So, I was sort of correct in my Venable assessment.

Mark Reynolds – It’s so weird to be wrong about a known commodity. I had Reynolds buried on the draft board (22^nd 3b), whereas consensus had him a bit higher. I believed he was a .240 hitter with 35 HRs and 10 SBs. He has actually batted worse (.222) and has 36 HRs and just 6 SBs, but has come in as the 6^th best 3b for the year. What a dreadful position.

Edwin Jackson – Partly because he was born in Germany, partly because I believed in the Chicago White Sox pitching coaches, I thought Jackson would have a nice year. I expected an ERA in the 4.25-4.50 range with 170 Ks. He has fallen short of the Ks (he has just 146) but his ERA has been a nice surprise (3.85). Sure the WHIP is miserable, but he wasn’t that bad of a pitcher.

Chris Iannetta – I had Iannetta as a sleeper for the millionth year in a row, expecting a .250 hitter with 15 HRs (with upside as well). Well, Iannetta has batted just .236 this year but does have 13 HRs. He hasn’t helped at all down the stretch though and has really sputtered out. It would be nice if he batted anything other than eighth, but you have to play the cards you’re dealt.

This is it, fellas and three girl readers. The last train is leaving the station. The giddy has just about got up and went. It’s your last chance and I’d throw every single pitcher, not just the ones I have listed here if it meant the difference in my league. You need to do what you do. The line for last week was 5.02 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 57 Ks and 5 Wins in 77 IP.  Um, that’s hideous.  If I were to remove Eveland, Huff and Lincoln, ERA would drop to 3.52.  So most the damage was done by three guys.  Still, blech.  Let’s see if I can avoid recommending Lincoln for a third week!  To recap, these aren’t guys I’d drop anyone worthwhile to get, these starters are meant for streaming purposes and all of their ownership in ESPN is under 50%. These streamers are in no particular order. Also, in the final days of the season, managers juggle their lineups more, so there’s no guarantee all of these guys are listed on the right day. Anyway, here’s some borderline starters for this week in fantasy baseball:

Friday, September 23rd

Carl Pavano – Against the Indians this year, he’s been a Pava…yes.  See what I did there?  Spectacular!

Rick Porcello – The deal right now, in these last few days of September, is go big or go home or don’t go big and don’t go home.  In other words, you have to decide if you need to start a whole mess of guys to try and win, or if you can coast like the Phils.  Don’t fully trust Porcello but he’s better than some other schmohawks.

R.A. Dickey – He hasn’t been bad in two months and he gets the playoff-bound Phils.  I do tend to shy away from knuckleballers with Dickey being one.  (Must’ve been so hard for him growing up with a name like Dickey and being a knuckleballer.  I imagine it’s hard for anyone under the age of 45 to be a knuckleballer.  Knuckleballers don’t exactly pull the girls.  Or maybe they don’t pull girls so that’s why they become knuckleballers.  Deep thoughts with Grey Albright.)

Brett Myers – I nearly put Drew Pomenranz here too (his opponent).  One million ways to stream, choose one.

Aaron Harang – A few pitchers I liked for today were left off because they were just above 50% owned.  Basically, every pitcher on this Friday is a good spot start.

Saturday, September 24th

Cory Luebke – As good as Friday was for spot starters, Saturday’s that bad.  For full disclosure, I nearly suggested Jerome Williams, but then I thought about Jerome Williams and I decided nah.  Not a capital nah or a no way, just a small quiet nah.

Sunday, September 25th

Mike Minor – Not great matchups today either.  I mean, there’s some good pitchers going but they’re owned in more than 50% of leagues.  Minor’s at least good for some Ks.  BTW, this start could change if the Braves have already clinched.  Then Detwiler’s start vs them wouldn’t look as bad.

Edwin Jackson – Gave me a pretty lousy start last time he appeared in the borderline starter post (5 IP, 5 ER), but I’m a glutton for punishment.  Not gluten, gross.

Monday, September 26th

Randall Delgado – Will be a bit dependent on where the Braves are in the playoff race, but whether they’re in it or out of it, they’re going against the Phils who have packed it up.

Randy Wells – Only because he goes against the Padres in Petco.  On a related note, what are the Cubs doing in San Diego at the end of the season?  I can only imagine how well this would’ve went down if the Cubs were in the playoff chase… Okay, as hard as that is to imagine.

Brandon McCarthy – He’s only listed here because he was under 50% owned when I wrote this up.  I imagine by Monday he won’t be under 50% anymore.  He might not even be by today.

Jason Vargas – Him and McCarthy go against each other.  I don’t stream two pitchers in the same game, but chances are McCarthy will be gone and Vargas could throw a decent game, as well.

Tuesday, September 27th

Jeanmar Gomez – Sounds like a Swedish Latino, doesn’t he?  Swexicano?  Not the greatest of matchups with Gomez going against the Tigers if it wasn’t for the fact the Tigers will be resting for the playoffs.

Wednesday, September 28th

R.A. Dickey – Look at me, double dipping on Dickey this week.  That’s what she said!  Though I’m not sure why she would say that.  It’s not like it would reflect well on her.

Eric Surkamp – Unlike previous years, the Rockies folded up their blankets and checked out in August.  If Surkamp’s gone, I’d look at his opponent, Pomeranz, simply because the Giants aren’t that good.

Brett Myers – The last day of the season is actually a great day to stream pitchers.  Hitters take the last day off, managers bring in Triple-A hitters just to give them a chance to play, people check out, basically.

Brad Peacock – Thankfully, he’s not facing Dickey on the last day of the season because then my head would’ve exploded.  The one on my shoulders.