Fantasy Baseball Advice

How’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Billy Butler for 2010.  She told me where to find Manic Panic hair dye so I could dye my roots blue (which is a great gospel group, but stick to My Roots Blue’s first two albums).  We’ve gone over the final 2009 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Jered Weaver – Is it me or does he look like a guy whose talent should be blowing snot rockets further than anyone else? Weaver struggled a bit vs. lefties last year (.276 BAA) and in the latter half of the year (Post-All-Star Break 4.47 ERA).  Preseason Rank #37, 2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160, Final Numbers:  16-8/3.75/1.24/174

22. Joel Pineiro – Unranked in 2009 and will probably be unranked again in 2010.  105 Ks; blech!  I’m sure I can think of at least 40 starters I’d prefer over a thirty-one year old pitcher with around a 4 K/9 who was entering their walk year.  He should donate a third of his next year’s salary to Dave Duncan’s favorite charity, Feed The Children, Namely Chris and Shelley.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.49/1.14/105

23. Clayton Kershaw – There’s nothing I love more than a pitcher who might be undervalued because of bad Win Karma.  He only won 8 games, bleh! Bleh, yourself.  Don’t worry about wins.  Almost as exciting as watching people avoid pitchers based on a low win total is watching people draft starters because they won a lot of games.  Pitfall, Harry!  Preseason Rank #47, 2009 Projections:  11-6/4.20/1.40/140, Final Numbers:  8-8/2.79/1.23/185

24. Johan Santana – Some may write it off as just one of those years for the Mets.  Saying they had the inverse Midas touch like anyone from a reality show in anything other than a reality show.  Unfortunately, Johan’s K/9 continued to fall in 2009, his walks rose, his BAA and WHIP went up.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  18-6/2.95/1.12/210, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.13/1.21/146

25. Edwin Jackson – A 2.52 ERA before the All-Star Game vs. a 5.07 ERA after.  February Grey is going to have to put on his aluminum foil hat to figure out if Jackson was simply a fluke in the first half or if he finally reached his potential only to then lose it again.  Preseason Rank #70, 2009 Projections:  11-9/4.50/1.50/120, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.62/1.26/161

26. Yovani Gallardo – Here’s another guy that had some ugly first and 2nd half splits.  On July 30th, Gallardo had an ERA of 3.13.  That was followed by August and September ERAs of 5.24 and 5.51 respectively.  The Brewers tried to limit his innings towards the end of the year, obviously they should’ve shut him down on July 30th.  By the time they did shut him down, I think it might have been just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.  I’m pretty sure I’m avoiding him next year.  Preseason Rank #33, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150, Final Numbers:  13-12/3.73/1.31/204

27. J.A. Happ – Happ confounded me.  Confounded I tell ya!  He really didn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Remember, Rudy said he dropped Happ in his NL-Only league?  That wasn’t just Rudy coming off an all night bender or reading misinformed tea leaves.  Happ just doesn’t seem like he should’ve been as good as he was.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-4/2.93/1.23/119

28. Scott Baker – Here’s someone who actually got their shizz together as the season progressed, dropping his ERA by over two full runs in the 2nd half.  He did get hit pretty soundly by righties, which, frankly, is not terrific.  Preseason Rank #52, 2009 Projections:  12-6/3.95/1.22/150, Final Numbers:  15-9/4.37/1.19/162

29. Bronson Arroyo – Talking about someone who got their act together in the 2nd half, Arroyo wasn’t ownable in the 1st half (5.38 ERA).  In the last three years, he now has a pre-All-Star Break ERA of 5.39 and a post-All-Star Break of 3.06.  Guess who’s going to be a buy on July 1st, 2010.  Preseason Rank #63, 2009 Projections:  12-10/4.25/1.40/150, Final Numbers:  15-13/3.84/1.27/127

30. Tommy Hanson – For fear of a roofie, I didn’t own Hanson in any league.  Turned out Hanson was not only ready to make the jump t0 the big leagues, but he was ready to dominate.  He didn’t even tire as the season went on, putting up a great month of September and a solid final start of the season.  For Hanson, it was mmmbop, indeed.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-4/2.89/1.18/116

31. John Danks – At 41, I ranked Danks a lot higher in the preseason than most ‘perts because I saw something in Danks.  What I didn’t see was a pitcher whose homers, walks and luck would go up.  It was a mirage of a season in 2009. Preseason Rank #41, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160, Final Numbers:  13-11/3.77/1.28/149

32. Ryan Dempster – I just hate pitchers two years after they go from relieving to starting.  My rationale is they’re rested the year after relieving so they’ll pitch better than expected, while two years after they’ll pitch tired from being stretched out the previous year.  Didn’t seem to bother Dempster, but it still hasn’t swayed me otherwise.  Preseason Rank #45, 2009 Projections:  9-7/4.50/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  11-9/3.65/1.31/172

33. Randy Wells – Unlike what we saw with Hanson, here’s a rookie pitcher that did seem to tire as the season progressed.  Not to the point where he was unusable, but it was still there.  His WHIP (1.65 in September) started to move towards his minor league numbers with his BAA at .311.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-10/3.05/1.28/104

34. Gavin Floyd – Last year, I was wrong about Floyd as I said in the preseason, “Everything from last year points to him having more luck than stuff.  In fact, CHONE’s projections for 2009 has Floyd at a 5.05 ERA.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting CHONE!  Yeah, CHONE wasn’t the only one.  Wasn’t much to get excited about with Floyd.  His 2008 looked like an outlier.  In 2008, his FIP was 4.77 to a 3.84 ERA. Then, this year, his FIP was 3.77 to a 4.06 ERA.  What do you know, Floyd’s playing with us.  Preseason Rank #56, 2009 Projections:  12-11/4.50/1.32/140, Final Numbers:  11-11/4.06/1.23/163

35. Scott Feldman – There wasn’t any point this season when I would’ve picked up Feldman.  His value is coming mostly from great Win Karma.  Commenter, “Grey you said you needed wins in a few of your leagues, so shouldn’t you have picked up Feldman?”  Grey, “Um, yeah, I guess, technically, durrrrrrr.”  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-8/4.08/1.28/113

36. Matt Garza – I liked Garza in the preseason but didn’t end up with him on any team, because as is my wont — it’s my wont, ya’ll! — when choosing between two pitchers, I take the NL one first.  So Garza got passed up for the likes of Cain, Josh Johnson and/or The Wandwagon. Preseason Rank #38, 2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140, Final Numbers:  8-12/3.95/1.26/189

37. Chad Billingsley – Bust!  I saw a much better season coming from this schmohawk.  Guess this teaches us a very valuable lesson, don’t ignore Verducci.  I will love Billingsley again next year.  Major bounce back coming.  Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections:  16-6/3.35/1.33/200, Final Numbers:  12-11/4.03/1.32/179

38. Jorge de la Rosa – I may not have ranked him the preseason, but, as it turned out, you didn’t want to draft him in March anyway (5.21 ERA pre-All-Star Break).  I did plead with you like a bittie in the BK Lounge to pick him up in the middle of the season when you should’ve picked him up, so we’re good.   Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  16-9/4.38/1.38/193

39. Mark Buehrle – Hmm… Even the month he pitched his perfect game, he only had an ERA of 3.92.  Usual shizz with Buehrle, not great, not terrible.  Preseason Rank #82, 2009 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.35/120, Final Numbers:  13-10/3.84/1.25/105

40. A.J. Burnett – I had serious doubts about Burnett putting together back-to-back seasons of 200 innings since he had never done it before in his career.  Congrats, Burnett, now go tug on your ear.  Preseason Rank #26, 2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140, Final Numbers:  13-9/4.04/1.40/195

Zack Greinke won his 16th game yesterday pretty much the same way he won his other 15.  In September, he has a .35 ERA.  That’s two earned runs through 26 innings.  Okay, recent-history lesson aside.  The question I’ve been thinking on a lot lately is where will he be drafted next year.  I think it’s fair to assume he’s moved in front of Johan and Sabathia.  Webb and Peavy hit speedbumps this year and Halladay’s been his usual dominating self, but he never seems to get the fantasy love.  I mean, Halladay was better than everyone last year but wasn’t drafted in front of them this year either.  So that leaves Greinke and Lincecum.  Lincecum’s proven; he’s a top 2nd round pick.  So is Greinke a 2nd to 3rd rounder?  On one hand, it seems implausible to me that Greinke’s going to go that early (this might be because I don’t draft pitchers that early).  On the other hand, he’s earned it.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we jump into the roundup, and, oh, we will be jumping, Rudy updated the master standings.  With 114 points out of 120, Mowses is parting the rest of you Razzballers with his cane and giant beard.  Unfortunately, he has no shot at 120 points.  Damn.  We hoped with 9 leagues that one would get 120.  How many leagues do we need to have to foster a perfect season?  We feel like Mr. Burns did when those monkeys he had pounding away at typewriters were only able to manage, “It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.”  Anyway, roundup time…

Shawn Camp – Got the save yesterday.  Probably a combination of Frasor working two innings the day before, Downs being, well, down and the Blue Jays not having a lead until the tail end of the 8th inning when Camp was already warming up.

Matt Tuiasosopo – HR yesterday.  Not much else to say, just wanted to write his last name.

Patrick Misch – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks.  Game before he gave up 8 earned in 1 1/3 innings.  Okay then.

Carlos Quentin – HRs in back-to-back games this weekend as he showed a glimpse of the player he was before you wanted to kill him.

Daniel Hudson -  6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 5 BBs.  If only BBs stood for Brian Benben sightings.  (1st Dream On reference of the day.  There will be another one this afternoon.  If you can guess this afternoon’s reference prior to posting, I will buy dinner for you and your family at Friendly’s.  *fast, hard to understand voice*  Offer available online only.  Offer applies to contiguous 48 states.  “Family” includes you and one other person.  No cousins or nephews.  Dinner includes a Fishamajig sandwich and a Fribble.  Winner must pay tax and gratuity.)

Mariano Rivera – Got the save yesterday as ESPN reported the Yanks clinched.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Hughes gets a save this week.

Chris Tillman – 2 IP, 6 ER.  In one of my leagues, I reached 179 starts the other day, so of course I threw eight starts on Sunday.  Damn you, Tillman.  I hate being roofied.

Matt LaPorta – HR yesterday and he’s batting over .400 in the last week.  Andy Marte is even starting to hit (.467 over the last week with a homer) as the Indians have the best record for the last three days, tied with three other teams.  Small victories, Tribe fans, small victories.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs as he finishes up a decent year (79/6/68/.308/17).  Yes, it’s only decent because it’s at shortstop.  Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus and EverCab should make shortstop a bit more interesting next year, but not that much.  Asdrubal’s only 23 so I’ll be mildly touting him again next year.

Nick Markakis – Hit a homer on Friday after I put the reverse kavorka on him in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  It was his only hit this weekend (1-for-11).  (David Wright went 1-for-10 and sat out Sunday.  Maybe you can have a 2nd Place Finish But Still Owned David Wright trophy made.)

Edwin Jackson – 7 IP, 5 ER.  He’s had an August (4.45 ERA) and September (4.78 ERA) to forget, but you didn’t think he’d even have an April or May or June or July to remember, so don’t hate on him too hard as uncool people who are trying to sound cool would say.

Ryan Madson – 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER as he got the save.  I’d say Madson’s going to get every Phillie save this week, but every time I say that Lidge reappears to blow a save.

Mike Cameron – Has hit a homer in the past two games that he’s started.  This isn’t a “Hey, look at Cameron” thing as much as a “Hey, Gerut’s playing time is getting pinched by Cameron and Hart” thing.  I know, just when you thought you couldn’t dislike Hart any more.

Francisco Liriano – 1 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  After the game, Liriano asked for a reversal of his surgery — “I want Johnny Tom surgery!”

Orlando Cabrera – 3-for-5 yesterday, batting near .400 over the last week.  If you need a shortstop, here ya go.

Randy Choate – Entered a losing game in the 8th, then Lance Cormier got the save as Maddon played match-ups.  The Rays’ closerousel is anyone’s guess for saves.

Huston Street – In case you missed it last week, Street is the closer.  To prove it to everyone, he went two innings for the save yesterday.

Derrek Lee – Out three games now with a sore neck.  He’s been dealing with this issue most of the season, but this latest flareup was caused when Angel Guzman gave him a celebratory tap on the helmet after a home run Lee scored on.  Similar thing happened to Kaz Matsui last year when Berkman patted his ass after a homer.

Randy Wells spells relief with D-R-O-P H-I-M.  3 2/3 IP, 3 ER in his previous start.  4 IP, 5 ER yesterday.  If this were an SAT question, the next game’s line in this series is 4 1/3 IP and 7 ER.  Four months of a 3 ERA is a good run, right?  Send him a postcard in March when he’s down in Arizona.  Or send him a basket of Port Wine cheese logs from Cracker Barrel.  Whatever.  He’ll forgive you for dropping him.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edwin Jackson – 5 IP, 5 ER.  I’m Rockwell, and I’m watching you.  Now punt Jackson.

Brett Tomko – Shut down for the season.  Who makes a deal with the devil for only three weeks?  I know Dorian Gray.  You, sir, are not him.

Willie Bloomquist – 4-for-5 yesterday and he’s hitting .500 over the last week.  I’d say he’s going to be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell, but he’s here.  You get the gist… Or is it the ‘quist?

Alex Gordon – 1-for-4, Now batting .205.  [sarcasm] Yeah, the Royals were totally wrong to hold him down in the minors for financial reasons.  He’s totally producing now. [/sarcasm]

Zach Greinke – 5 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks.  Left the game with some swelling after a comebacker hit him on the elbow.  Word on the streets of Steve Balboni Blvd. is Greinke will be fine for his next start.

Miguel Olivo – Another homer yesterday.  Telling you right now, if you wait longer than a week.  He’ll be ice cold again.  He’s like Chiquita Banana’s boyfriend, he hits them in bunches.

Miguel Cabrera – Hit his 30th homer yesterday.  I wonder if after the game he got an Olivo hug.  (<–It’s called a hunch!)

John Danks – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Danks’s win got ganked by a jenky Jenks.  Say that fast 5 times.  Actually, don’t.  It’s a waste of time.

Brandon Morrow – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 12 baserunners as he tied his owners to the WHIPping post.  He’s walking too many and we (me and you… I’m actually sitting next to you — Hey!) don’t have time for him to correct himself.  He gets the Rays next, which isn’t an awful start, but it’s highly risky right now.

Wade Davis – 9 IP, 6 baserunners, 10 Ks.  This start and his last start (2 2/3 IP, 8 ER) epitomizes the rookie pitcher.  You like to ride the roller coaster, but sometimes you end up vomiting.

Shane Victorino – Speaking of vomiting, Victorino has food poisoning and will miss a day or two as he’s now, The Upchucking Hawaiian.

Brad Lidge – 1 IP, 1 ER and the save.  This is a pretty comical set-up Manuel’s configured here.  If the Phils are up by three runs, they bring in Lidge for the save.  1 or 2 runs, it’s Madson.  That’s gotta be a nice confidence booster for Lidge.  You suck, but I trust you enough to not be totally sucky.

Chris Coghlan – 4-for-4, 1 Run.  If anyone can have a 4-for-4 with only 1 run and no steals or RBIs, it’s Coghlan.  He yawnstipates me pretty badly.

Rich Harden – Will have a start skipped for ineffectiveness rather than an injury.  This is an absolute first for Harden.  I mean, a missed start because of an injury is his Pass Line.

Carlos Zambrano – This doesn’t have a huge effect on fantasy baseball, but I found it slightly amusing.  The Cubs said they would try to trade Big Z in the offseason.  He said he would use his no-trade clause.  Now Carlos doesn’t necessarily strike me as someone that would be happy-happy-joy-joy if he were on another team, but I like that he doesn’t even want to try for happiness somewhere else.  I pitch poorly at home (almost a full run higher in Wrigley over three years), I attack the Gatorade bucket with my fisticuffs and I look downright miserable in just about every start, but, you know what?  I’m staying right here. I imagine Big Z reads a lot of Sylvia Plath.

J.A. Happ threw a complete game shutout yesterday with only 6 baserunners and 10 Ks vs.  Jorge de la Rosa’s 5 IP, 7 ER, 3 Ks line.  I pretty much saw this matchup going almost exactly opposite.  Maybe I had my contacts in backwards.  dlR had won seven games in a row.  Happ was coming off two losses.  dlR’s a lefty, the Phils don’t hit lefties well.  Maybe I underestimated Happ’s desire to stay in the rotation with Pedro breathing down his neck.  This was a solid case for that, but if the Phils don’t pull Happ from the rotation they’re jeopardizing his 2010 (when people take flying cars to the ballpark).  Happ should be moved to the bullpen and Pedro should be put into the rotation.  Even if that means Pedro throws a bunch of 4 inning, 3 run games and Happ comes in in the 5th inning and throws three dominant innings.  It’s the right move for everyone and I think that’s the way the Phils should/will go.  To clarify, this is not an endorsement of Pedro.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

David Wright – HR yesterday.  As I said yesterday in the comments, “(The Mets play-by-play man, Cohen, said) that was (Wright’s) first opposite field homer in the new park.  For a guy that goes that way, that’s not great.  After all, we’re in August.”  And that’s me quoting me quoting Gary Cohen!  Cohen also said the humidity may be helping the ball carry.  So now Metco is Yellowstone instead of the Grand Canyon.  Sah-weet.

Jon Niese – Out for the season.  Surprisingly, the Mets trainer had time to help him off the field.

Gary Sheffield – Left the game with an injury.  It’s The Curse of the Shirtless Bernazard.

Pablo Sandoval – 3-for-4, .334 on the season.  I think the average comes down a bit by the end of the season (not much).  But Pablo’s been an absolute revelation this year — .374 on the season as a righty.  .314 as a lefty.  .382 in home games.  17 homers.  4 steals.  Catcher eligibility.  Same weight as Kyle Blanks and seven inches shorter.  In the beginning of the year, I mentioned that I thought Sandoval looked a lot like Edgar Martinez.  I still think it.  And he’s affectionately nicknamed Kung-Fu Panda because he’s athletic and fat.  (I would’ve went with the other athletic, fat person nickname — The Fabulous Moolah.)

Chad Gaudin – 3 1/3 IP, 6 ER.  I should’ve made a bigger deal of this when I did it, but the other day I dropped Gaudin in all of my leagues.  He’s consistently been better in road games.  A HodgePadre who can’t pitch at Petco makes no sense to me.  I don’t know what to do with that.  Makes me feel like Rainman when he can’t watch Jeopardy.

Will Venable – Another HR.  Okay, sorta on topic, sorta not, but I’ve been meaning to address this.  There’s no reason to ask me something like, “Venable or Velez for the rest of the year?”  The rest of the season?  These guys may not be good by the middle of August.  The rest of the season only applies if you play in a league where you have a limited number of moves or you’re marrying a von Bülow.  Don’t get attached to anyone in your UTIL spot, MI or fifth outfield spot.  I have Kyle Blanks, Wigginton, David Murphy, Velez, Venable, Beckham, Robot Jones and Gomes on different teams (thankfully).  I can guarantee you I won’t have 90% of those guys in two weeks.  In fact, I just dropped Gomes.  Play the hot guy and move on.  Especially at this time of the year.  Okay, school’s out, Alice Cooper.

David Murphy – 2 HRs yesterday.  As mentioned above, I own him on a few teams.

Kevin Gregg – Returned from a tired arm.  Piniella was annoyed that Gregg didn’t mention he was suffering from a tired arm over the weekend when he blew two saves, saying, “I can’t just read somebody’s mind.  I can look at the stuff, but by the time I look at the stuff, it’s a little late.  The ball’s out of the ballpark and the mojito doesn’t taste as good.”  He sounds like LaRussa.

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 4 ER, 12 baserunners vs. a team that was selling at the trade deadline.  You’re really wasting your time with Liriano.

Aaron Laffey – 8 IP, 0 ER.  If you pick him up, you will be Sobby.

Edwin Jackson – 8 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks.  As you can imagine, I don’t root for players I don’t own, but I’m kinda rooting for Edwin.  He’s been at the game ever since honeys been wearin’ Sassoons.  Nice that he’s finally making good.  Man, I really love prospects who fail at first.

John Lannan – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks.  He can just as easily get shelled in his next start out vs. the Braves.  I’m pessimistically cautious going forward.

Gerardo Parra – 2-for-5 and a steal, as he bats almost .400 over his last 7 games.  I’m picking him up in a few leagues, though his lack of legit speed bores me so he may not stay on any team too long.

Ryan Roberts – Now has 3 homers in the last two days.  I still don’t think this is going anywhere you wanna go, but if you’re hurting at MI, it won’t hurt to grab him.

Erik Bedard – His shoulder is still sore and he’s headed for an MRI.  Punt!

Justin Upton – Strained oblique (vague!).  Hopefully it’s not too bad, but unfortunately these are the sort of injuries that linger like poorly chewed jalapenos.

Adam Dunn – Hit his 29th homer yesterday.  Country strong.

Jim Thome – 2 HRs yesterday.  Country stronger.

Gavin Floyd – 8 IP, 1 ER.  Absolutely incredible the year he’s putting together in his home park.  Around a two and a half ERA at home, while over 5.50 ERA away.

Jason Bay – HR yesterday.  It was his first one since July 7th.  Good sign!  Reaggravated his hamstring injury.  Bad sign!

Marc Rzepczynski – 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 Ks.  Only one walk, which is a good sign for The RZE, but I still wouldn’t own him this year.

Justin Lehr – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Here’s what you do with Justin Lehr.  Photoshop Justin Lehr’s name onto Stephen Strasburg’s college stats page, then screenshot it and post the .jpg in your league messageboard.

David Price – 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 Ks, 0 walks.  Nice showing vs. the Sawx.  Very nice to see him string back-to-back starts together.  Let’s hope his next start vs. the Angels is his third step forward.

Prince Fielder – Stole a base yesterday.  After the game, he said he pictured Mota’s face on the 2nd base bag.

Garrett Jones – HR yesterday.  You know how you love a guy for a week or two when he’s out of his mind, hitting homers every game, then he goes through a week slump and you’re ready to drop him.  Then the day you prepare to drop him, he hits a homer.  Now are you excited by this latest homer or annoyed?  I kinda get annoyed.  I just want him to fail one more day so I can drop him.  I gotta talk to my shrink about what that means.

It’s been over a month since we took a look at some pitchers who are pitching over their heads.  Last time, we saw Cueto, Porcello, Millwood, Saunders, Lilly, Cahill and Gallardo were due for a correction.  Since then, they’ve had Liquid Paper dumped all over their stats.  Also, on that list were Matt Cain, Zach Duke and John Lannan.  6 of 10 pitchers pitched poorly since the last time I told you they would, Gallardo’s been marginally worse and Zach Duke’s been marginally the same.  That’s pretty bad odds against the pitchers on this list.  A few are still on here as they’re still pitching over their head.  For a refresher course on what the eff I’m even talking about with FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), take Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Matt Cain – -1.63 difference.  Cain’s regression is defying gravity.

J.A. Happ – -1.23.  Then throw in his home park and the Phils will have to start limiting his innings.  Or, at least, they should.  But after their handling of Hamels last year, they may not.

Edwin Jackson – -1.19.  Ouch!  That was Edwin Jackson landing on top of Aaron Hill in the giant pile of Guys You Already Got So Much Value From That If You Want More You’re Just Being Greedy.

Kevin Millwood – -1.19.  He still has a ways to go before we see the Millwood we know and don’t own in fantasy baseball.

John Lannan – -1.13.  The terrible K/9 and the team behind him makes him questionable anyway.  I recently owned him for his start vs. the Padres.  Got a 8 inning, 1 earned run game from him.  Then I dropped him.

Jarrod Washburn – -1.12. It’s only because his ERA is currently a 2.64.  You don’t really think he’s a sub-3 ERA pitcher, right?  Rhetorical!

Wandy Rodriguez – -1.01.  No!!!  Anyone but Wandy, please.  Here, take my Catfish Hunter 1978 RC Cola Player Soda Can.  Just leave Wandy alone!

Trevor Cahill – -.97. Since he currently has over a 5 ERA, he shouldn’t be on your team anyway.

Joba Chamberlain – -.91. If his mom, Anne Ramsey, catches him on this list, there will be trouble.