Fantasy Baseball Advice

First we went over the top 20 catchers for 2008, then top 20 1st basemen for 2008 and top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Now, as they say in the tire business, we roll right along moving onto the top 20 3rd basemen for 2008. This year third base gets the gas face. Starts off predictably with Wright, Arod, Braun then the list hits a hard left like Vin Diesel’s career after The Pacifier. Huff high, Atkins low, Mora there. The top 20 3rd basemen for 2008 list starts strong and ends up ugly like any match involving a white boxer. I’m surprised Joe Randa didn’t show up on this top 20 list. Ya know, the Patron Saint of Yawnstipating. Because, right here, we have The Joe Randa Also-Rans. Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2008 in fantasy baseball and how they compared to where we originally ranked them:

1. David Wright - My preseason predictions are nearly right on for Wright. Yet, I had him ranked #2 instead of number one. It’s not as pronounced as our first basemen list, but again, we’re seeing a theme in these top twenty lists, offensive was down across the board. Preseason Rank #2, Preseason Predictions:  115/34/120/.310/20, Final Numbers:  115/33/124/.302/15

2. Alex Rodriguez - Okay, you know Arod, so I’ll tangent for a second. He’s headed to being the greatest home hitter that has ever played the game. 553 HRs at the age of 33. He should surpass Bonds in five to six years. Since 1996, he’s been a top ten fantasy player. He is arguably the best we have ever seen. That’s not really much of a limb. Now, has there ever been anyone in the history of any sport that is so roundly considered arguably the best of all-time and simultaneously ignored? (Yes, there were a lot of adverbs in that sentence. My bad.) Not to mention, Arod plays in New York. Yet no one cares about him!  He should be at least as “big” as Tiger Woods, Gretzky or Jordan. He’s nowhere near them. Okay, interesting, perhaps, but what really has me puzzled is why? Is it his lack of personality? Maybe, but Gretzky, Woods and Jordan were/are/were an amalgamation of what their endorsements made them. Is it because Arod excels with such relative ease?  Nah, they all were/are/were effortlessly great. Is it the lack of championships? It would appear so, but here’s the thing. Not everyone is a Yankee fan. If he helps them win 5 championships, this would piss off as many people as it would excite. So because of his lack of success for a team that many of you don’t like, you don’t respect Arod? Hmm… Maybe.  Preseason Rank #1, Preseason Predictions:  120/42/130/15/.305, Final Numbers:  104/35/103/18/.302

3. Ryan Braun - I had serious reservations about how well he would come back from his insane rookie year. I discounted him as much as I could and I still thought he should be ranked third for third basemen in the preseason rankings. So, as you can see, I still liked him a lot. I was just was trying to temper expectations because I knew his unreal average from his rookie campaign would come down and it did. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  100/27/105/.280/12, Final Numbers:  92/37/106/.285/14

4. Aubrey Huff - Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  96/32/108/.304/4

5. Kevin Youkilis - Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #16, Preseason Predictions:  90/21/115/.290/3, Final Numbers:  91/29/115/.312/3

6. Chipper Jones - I can’t say his name, even in my head, without thinking of the great Skip Caray. You’ll be missed, sir. As for Chipper, he was in some kind of zone for average, but average as a stat yawnstipates me. Rudy will have something this offseason about why average is really the least of your worries when it comes to roto. Preseason Rank #9, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/85/.315/5, Final Numbers:  82/22/75/.364/4

7. Miguel Cabrera - Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #3, Preseason Predictions:  110/35/125/.315/4, Final Numbers:  84/37/127/.292/1

8. Aramis Ramirez - What’s that smell? Aramis. His power is going down more than Stephanie Pratt on Doug. Preseason Rank #6, Preseason Predictions:  95/37/120/.305, Final Numbers:  97/27/111/.289

9. Jorge Cantu - Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  92/29/95/.277/6

10. Mark DeRosa - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 103/21/87/.285/6

11. Melvin Mora - You’re traveling through another dimension — a dimension not only of sight and sound but of mind. A journey into a wondrous land where two Orioles third basemen are in the top 11. That’s a signpost up ahead: your next stop: The Twilight Zone! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/23/104/.285/3

12. Garrett Atkins - Already covered him in top 20 1st basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #7, Preseason Predictions:  85/34/115/.300, Final Numbers:  86/21/99/.286/1

13. Russell Martin - Already covered him in top 20 catchers for 2008. Preseason Predictions:  85/20/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  87/13/69/.279/18

14. Evan Longoria - Didn’t start the year with the club as it looked like the Rays were purposely dragging their feet on another prospect, then he missed a month from August 8th to Sept. 13th and he’s still ranked 14th. Wow. Longoria’s going to be a good one. Preseason Rank #19, Preseason Predictions:  70/20/75/.285, Final Numbers:  67/27/85/.272/7

15. Mark Reynolds - The only player to strikeout more than 200 times in a season. I can handle 200 Ks if you’re dropping your badonkadonk more than 40 times. Reynolds’s 28 home runs? It’s not walking the dog. It’s not applying mustard to the hot dog. It’s not unbuttoning your pants after your second dessert. It just isn’t. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 87/28/97/.239/11

16. Adrian Beltre - I’d like to see someone put together a list of the top ten players of the last twenty-five years who have wasted the most talent. I have to think Beltre is somewhere on that list. Imagine, if you will, a player that has Beltre’s talent and Ankiel’s desire. Preseason Rank #11, Preseason Predictions:  85/25/85/.260/7, Final Numbers:  74/25/77/.266/8

17. Troy Glaus - I thought he was going to be bad. He was bad. In the preseason, I ranked him 17th and here he is. Don’t you love how that happens. Preseason Rank #17, Preseason Predictions:  65/22/70/.255, Final Numbers:  69/27/99/.270

18. Casey Blake - Turned out to be exactly the end of the draft bargain I thought he would be. Many of you probably had Kouzmanoff, Encarnacion, Guillen, Lowell and Gordon instead of Blake, but guess who is on this list and guess who is not. Okay, no fair, you’re looking at the list.  Preseason Rank #21, Preseason Predictions:  75/20/75/.270/5, Final Numbers:  71/21/81/.274/3

19. Chone Figgins - A pretty terrible season for Figgy when you look at the numbers, but if you look at how many games he played (116), it turns out he had simply a medicore season. Preseason Rank #14, Preseason Predictions:  105/5/60/.290/45, Final Numbers:  72/1/22/.276/34

20. Ty Wigginton - Already covered him in top 20 2nd basemen for 2008. Preseason Rank #18, Preseason Predictions:  70/20/70/.270, Final Numbers:  50/23/58/.285

That title there, that’s country speak. This here boy, Adam Dunn, he’s country strong and this, folks, this is the 2nd half of the baseball season. Let’s git ‘r Dunn! Since July 6th, Adam Dunn has 6 hits in the last 8 games. Guess how many of those were home runs. Go ahead. I’ll wait. *scratches head, picks ear, adjusts macksack* 6 of 6 were home runs. My man’s predictable. In. The. Best. Way. Possible. Yesterday, I went over how precious time is from now until the end of the season. (I’m not talking precious like making sure you go see your kids play soccer or some shizz.) If you need home runs, there are so few guys that could put up 20 home runs in the 2nd half. Dunn is one. Now will Dunn’s average make you long for the days of Tony Pena Jr.? Maybe. But a funny thing happened on the way to the end of last season. Dunn hit .273 post-All-Star Break. Zoinks! Say what, karaoke? You heard me. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joe Blanton - This is a lot better move for real baseball than it is for fantasy baseball. I’d throw a few dollars towards him in an NL-only waiver claim or I’d use a mid-level waiver claim. Yes, this is coming from the guy who preaches you should use your waiver claim fast and furious. Why do I say only a mid-level claim for Joe Blah? Cause I don’t really want him in any league, even in an NL-only league.

Chris Iannetta - 2-run HR. I keep getting questions in the comments or the forum about this guy. Grey, should I go with Pudge over Iannetta cuz, like, he has a starting job? Doooode, if you’re forced to have Pudge on your team, you should hope he loses the starting job. Iannetta has 10 HRs in a timeshare. You won’t take 3 or 4 good days a week instead of 6 crappy ones? Not to mention, Iannetta’s going to be getting more and more time in front of Torrealba.

Adam LaRoche - He’s at .415 for the month. If you picked him up today, you care what his April was like? That was rhetorical.

David Wright - Jerry Manuel did such great work to get Wright to hit a HR today. That was sarcastic.

Johan Santana - Tagged for 5 ER in 4 IP. After the game, he was seen dialing up his old friend, Kyle Lohse, for advice.

Marcus Thames - Hit his 18th HR in like 15 at-bats or something. I think if Thames and Dunn were in the home run derby we’d see 50 HRs and our first strikeout.

Francisco Cordero - Gave up 4 ER, 6 hits in 1/3 of an inning. I just traded him in one league with Fuentes for Ellsbury. Now I know how Tina Turner felt when Ike died. Phew.

Edwin Encarnacion - HR yesterday. I was going to put Double E on my top 100 for the 2nd half. Besides him having a good post-All-Star break last year, I couldn’t find a way to justify it. Encarnacion could be solid again, but my faith left the building.

Troy Glaus - 2 HRs. Glaus is another one that almost made the list. I pardon you. Glaus has been torrid of late. If a guy is hot for one month after the All-Star break, then you drop him for some other hot schmohawk in Augtember, you’ll be doing fine. Cust kayin’.

Kyle Lohse - 2 ER in 7 IP and Lohse moved to 12-2. Lohse says he owes it all to a chimpanzee named Ed, who turned out to be a best friend and a hirsute matchmaker of hilarious proportions. With Lohse and the chimp’s help, the Cards just might win the pennant!

Jake Peavy - Gave up four HRs and lost to Lohse. After the game, Peavy said, “I gotta get me a chimp.”

There’s probably more relevant fantasy baseball stories that could’ve been the lead for today’s post, but guess what? I love me some suffering of others. Honestly, I would’ve named the site schadenfreude-ball.com, but I thought that would cause this blog to be a hotbed of lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes. (Personally, I have no problem with either, but when Google indexes you, it’s important you are in no way connected to lederhosen or Wiener schnitzel. I believe it goes back to the Potsdam Conference. BTW, for those history buffs out there, I got a kick out of this in Wikipedia, “In March 1945, Finland declares war on Germany.” In case anyone doesn’t follow, Hitler killed himself in April 1945. Way to step up, Finland. They’re like the defensive replacement that comes into the ninth inning of game seven of a championship game. They get to celebrate, but you know they didn’t do anything. Finland is Doug Mientkiewicz. But I digress.) So, with The Love Guru bombing and Brett sent down, July 2008 was a bad month to be a Myers. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Matt Cain - Okay, full disclosure. I have Matt Cain on one of my teams and he’s been sitting on the bench for a majority of the season, but I’m holding him because I think he can be better. Yesterday, he was better. 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 10 Ks.

Chipper Jones - Avoided the DL. Yesterday I said, it looked like Chipper was headed to the DL. I didn’t Celebracadabra this shizz out of thin air. Manager Bobby Cox said he was shocked Jones didn’t hit the DL. Honestly, if you’re in Reno and there’s even odds for Chipper going on the DL, you double down. And don’t forget to tip your waitresses.

Troy Percival - Back to the DL and it wasn’t Wheeler last night for the save… It was Balfour! True, what? I am a True Fushnick! It’s fantasy baseball that I kick. But it was Balfour because Wheeler had gone three days in a row. Wheeler will get the majority of the saves going forward. You want a limb? How’s this — Wheeler gets more saves than Percival in the 2nd half.

Jeff Kent - HR last night. Why can’t he get more home runs in the 2nd half than he got in the first? Cause he’s 40. Well, yeah, but I think he’s too stubborn to totally suck. He has nine home runs right now. I think he gets 12 more. Wow, 12 more! Can I drop Ryan Howard now?! Well, ain’t you smart. Kinsler/Phillips both only had 13 in the 1st half. So 12’s something.

John Danks - 8 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks, he reminds me of a manadrin orange. It looks all weird and shizz, but when you taste it, it tastes fine. That’s Danks. You look at him and his name looks all weird and you don’t trust him then you start him and he’s fine.

Aaron Cook - Double A *beep beep* C-O-O-K. Okay, more disclosure, I’ve had him on a team for two months now. That’s two months longer than I ever thought I’d have Aaron Cook on a team. Whatevs. For a fourth starter on a fantasy team, you can do a lot worse. *cough* Pedro *cough*

Alex Gordon - Guess who’s turning it on? Seriously, guess. Why wouldn’t you guess Alex Gordon?! This question was right next to his name. What, you don’t want to succeed? Success scares you? Gordon, 3 HRs in last week.

Matt Garza - 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 Ks. No walks, which is a great sign. I told someone not to start him yesterday against the Sox. I also read the Michael J. Fox autobiography, Lucky Man: A Memoir. Twice. Sometimes you need to zig when I’m zagging.

Mariano Rivera - Kazaam!

J.J. Hardy - 2 HRs and over .450 in the last 7 games. He hit 15 home runs in two months last year. He can get hot. Recognize!

David Wright - 16th HR yesterday. 3 HRs in the last 7 games. He’s soooooo perfect. Like OJ Simpson in the 70s.

Todd Wellemeyer - My fifth starter has a second name it’s something-something-M-E-Y-E-R and has now given up 14 runs in 13.1 innings.

Cliff Lee - 8 IP, 1 ER. Still no sign of aging on Dorian Gray’s face.

Miguel Cabrera - Pinch hit, which is a good sign if people were worried about him heading to the DL.

Rafael Furcal - Officially pulling a Kotchman. After his first minor league game, his back hurt. Something tells me we may not see Furcal again for a while and he may not do anyone any good when he does return.

Jorge Cantu - Hasn’t a hit a HR since June 12th. I get no pleasure in seeing him struggle because I have him on two teams. Damn! I should’ve went with lederhosen pictures and Wiener schnitzel recipes.

Adam Lind - Way back in April, I grabbed Lind. Turned out bad like the last two seasons of 24, so I dropped him. Now he’s back and hitting. I just dropped Melky for him in one league. I love Melky’s name; I hate what Melky does to my team.

Joe Borowski - After the game, Eric Wedge said, “I thought he pitched well, they just got lucky.” After the interview, the Indians put Wedge’s name in the hat for Emmy consideration.

Because things are always changing in fantasy baseball, it’s impossible to do a definitive list of the top hundred overall for 2008 or for any year for that matter. Tomorrow, Pujols could announce he’s having his surgery to repair his injured arm and be gone for the season or he could announce that he’s having his arm replaced with an aluminum bat and he moves to number one overall. Nevertheless, here’s my 2008 fantasy baseball top 100 as of right now. (BTW, download Rudy Gamble’s projections for 2008 here.)

1. Alex Rodriguez – Dur. Projections: 120/42/130/15/.305
2. Jose Reyes – Find thirty homers later in the draft. You ain’t finding 70 steals. Projections: 130/14/65/.295/70
3. Matt Holliday – Great hitter + Coors = Fantasy Stud. Projections: 110/40/125/.310/10
4. David Wright – The Mets have a penchant to run. Don’t see Wright slowing down just yet. Projections: 115/34/120/.310/20
5. Hanley Ramirez – I’ve already explained my hesitation for Hanley. Projections: 110/17/85/.295/45
6. Chase Utley – Could he give the Phillies the MVP trifecta this year? I give him 50/50 odds. Projections: 120/32/115/.325/12
7. Johan Santana – I’m not drafting him here, but that’s already been covered. Projections: 21-5/240/2.50/.95
8. Jake Peavy — Weak hitting division, extreme pitching park, ranked #1 as last year’s fantasy player. I’m not drafting him either. (BTW, why are people ranking Peavy so much lower than Santana on their draft cheatsheets? Does everyone really think Santana will win 25 games? He’ll be great, but c’mon. Don’t believe the hype.) Projections: 20-5/230/2.75/1.05
9. Miguel Cabrera – Everything but steals. Projections: 110/37/125/.325/4
10. Prince Fielder – Him and Howard are the only ones with good odds to hit 50. Projections: 115/50/125/.285
11. Ryan Howard – See Fielder, Prince. Projections: 100/50/140/.275
12. Carl Crawford – He’s still young and he can still hit 30 home runs. Projections: 105/25/85/.305/50
13. Grady Sizemore – This is probably my preseason AL MVP. But we’ll get to that. Projections: 120/35/85/.290/30
14. Alfonso Soriano – He’s a Latin 32, but doesn’t seem to be slowing down or losing power. He might have the best preseason shot at 40/40. Projections: 115/35/75/.280/20
15. Jimmy Rollins – He’s not hitting 30 homers again. Projections: 130/22/70/.290/35
16. David Ortiz – Eligibility concerns have me passing on him, but I could understand this pick. Projections: 115/40/120/.310
17. Alexis Rios – This is who I want in every league. I have his projections at 120/32/110/.300/25. Next year he’s a first rounder. Chew on that.
18. Carlos Lee – He’s good every year and he plays. That’s reliability. Projections: 90/35/120/.295/7
19. Vladimir Guerrero – Maybe he can get an aluminum leg from Pujols’s doctor. Projections: 105/32/125/.315/3
20. Mark Teixiera – You can count on certain stats, but that includes sub-par first halfs. Projections: 105/35/115/.300
21. Nick Markakis – I will have him on every team I can. Projections: 100/27/115/.300/20 with the skill set to go way above and beyond these numbers.
22. Ryan Braun – I already told you why not to buy into the hype. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12
23. B.J. Upton – I don’t see a huge step forward from last year. But 30/30 would still be sweet. Could easily be a 1st round guy next year. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27
24. Albert Pujols – A high-grade tear in his elbow? A team with nothing to play for. He might not see July. Projections: 55/22/70/.330/2 and he hangs them up by July 4th.
25. Ichiro Suzuki – He’ll be batting .330 in September and I’ll still be glad I didn’t draft him. You don’t have to turn your average to eleven. Projections: 110/10/65/.330/45
26. Carlos Beltran – Is it me or is this round filled with landmines? Projections: 100/27/110/.270/18
27. Lance Berkman – A lock for 90/35/110/.280.
28. C.C. Sabathia – It’s let’s start a pitching run. Projections: 20-9/210/3.40/1.15
29. Brandon Webb – Easily could be in the top ten at the end of the year. Projections: 19-7/190/3.10/1.20
30. Erik Bedard – I give you permission to now draft a starter, if you really must. Projections: 16-9/230/3.30/1.10
31. Aramis Ramirez – Last year’s numbers aren’t indicative of ’08. Projections: 95/37/120/.305
32. Troy Tulowitzki – The Polish are hard workers. I expect Tulo to make his people proud. Projections: 115/25/80/.280/10
33. Adam Dunn – I love guys that are guaranteed 40 homers. They give you runs, RBIs and home runs. BTW, Dunn’s only 28. Projections: 100/45/110/.265/7
34. Travis Hafner – I’m probably the only ‘pert ranking Pronk this high, but I think this is the year he puts everything together. He’d be higher if he had some eligibility somewhere. Projections: 100/40/110/.300
35. Jonathan Papelbon – This is where you should draft him if you want him. I don’t. But I do think he’ll be spectacular. Projections: 5-0/90/1.10/.75/45 saves
36. Robinson Cano – My third 2nd basemen off the board. Fark you, Phillips. Projections: 100/25/100/.295/3
37. Derrek Lee – As Rudy Gamble is prone to say, fifteen steals easily turns into five when your game isn’t stealing bases. Projections: 110/30/115/.290/5
38. Garrett Atkins – Third base sure be deep. Projections: 85/34/115/.300
39. Curtis Granderson – Too rich for my blood. I’m out of the Granderson pot. Projections: 115/27/85/.280/25
40. Victor Martinez – I’m taking Cralos Ruiz in the 18th round, not V-Mart in the third or fourth. Projections: 75/25/115/.300
41. Derek Jeter – Girls draft Jeter. Don’t be a girl. Projections: 110/15/70/.315/15
42. Miguel Tejada – He tore up the winter leagues and he’s pissed off because he’s pissing clean. Projections: 90/25/100/.290/3
43. Cole Hamels – The first pitcher I could conceivably draft. Here’s what I said in January, “The future has arrived for the Phillies ace. If he stays away from injury, he battles Peavy for the Cy Young. Not sure how early I’m going to draft him, but he’ll be on one of my ’08 teams.” You see that wisdom there. But then Santana came to the NL. So, sue me, Hamels now comes in third in the Cy Young voting. Projections: 20-7/210/3.20/1.10
44. Aaron Harang – The second pitcher I could conceivably draft. Projections: 17-10/220/3.75/1.15
45. Joe Nathan – If Papelbon’s selection didn’t start a closer run, I suppose here’s a good place to look. I won’t be picking a closer until the second tier. Projections: 6-1/80/1.90/1.00/40 saves
46. J.J. Putz – Very solid number one closer for any team, except for one of mine. Projections: 4-2/80/2.00/.90/40 saves
47. Brandon Phillips – I thought about dropping him into the fifties to prove how much I want you to avoid him. Projections: 80/19/75/.240/25 and is benched in July because his slump is “all in his head.”
48. Brian Roberts – Okay, here’s the problem. One year twenty homers, one year 4. Career average of 29 steals, last year 50. In fantasy baseball, inconsistency breeds contempt. Projections: 105/10/55/.290/30
49. Alex Gordon – I love Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20
50. Bobby Abreu – Everyone loves Granderson. How about you draft someone that is guaranteeing you good numbers? Projections: 120/15/110/.310/20
51. Torii Hunter – Double I is about as consistent as a 25/20 man can get. Projections: 85/25/100/.275/20
52. Corey Hart – Here’s what I said in January, “He ran like a demonfish in the first half (mostly against righties) and kept consistent power and average throughout. As much as I feel weird saying it, I think Mr. Hart is here to stay. His OBP against righties is kinda icky, but you know who else is like that, Double I. That’s right, Corey Hart is the white man Torii Hunter.” So it’s only fitting they’re next to each other in the rankings. Projections: 95/22/75/.280/25
53. Justin Morneau – Don’t think he walks enough to ever come close to another MVP. Projections: 90/32/105/.275
54. Dan Haren – He’s a bit prone to the home run ball and the move to a more hitter’s friendly park doesn’t help, but all this is negated by weaker offenses in the NL. Draft with confidence. Projections: 17-9/210/3.60/1.20
55. Manny Ramirez – I’m not high on Manny, but come on, he’s still kind of a hitting savant. Projections: 85/32/105/.315
56. Ian Kinsler – I kinda wanna have Kinsler’s babies. Projections: 110/25/70/.270/25
57. Eric Byrnes – Take Shane Victorino thirty spots later. You’re welcome. Projections: 90/20/75/.270/20
58. Chone Figgins – I already explained I don’t draft steals after Reyes. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45
59. Magglio Ordonez – Here’s what I wrote in January, “Saw something the other day about Mags. It said he won his 1st batting title in ’07. Thought it was weird it said “1st” as if he’s going to win a second.” Projections: 100/30/110/.300
60. Russell Martin – I had to list another catcher eventually, though you should be warned. He’s not going to steal 20 bases this year. Can’t you just draft Carlos Ruiz fifteen rounds later and grab Michael Bourn to get you some steals? Geez, and I thought I was difficult. Projections: 85/20/90/.290/15
61. Francisco Rodriguez – I won’t draft a closer this high, but I will say if I were, I would not be drafting K-Rod. He’s the only top tier closer that worries me. Projections: 6-2/90/3.00/1.25/45 saves
62. Mariano Rivera – I’d rather you started a website razzballsucks.com then draft Rivera, but you do what you do. Projections: 5-2/70/2.75/1.10/40 saves
63. Adrian Gonzalez – I can’t fathom anyone hitting 40 homers in Petco, but he might get to 35. Projections: 90/33/105/.280
64. Paul Konerko – My man Paulie is dropping off draftsheets. Did he screw someone’s Moms and I didn’t hear about it? Projections: 90/35/110/.275
65. Hunter Pence – You’re drunk if you think I’m drafting him, but, ya know, he’s gotta fit in somewhere. Projections: 95/22/75/.290/17
66. Chipper Jones – Yes, he’ll only play in 120 games, but you can make moves in your league to fill in people, right? Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5
67. John Lackey – It’s not that I don’t like him because I think he’s probably going to be my preseason AL Cy Young pick, but I just don’t like AL starters. Projections: 20-5/180/3.00/1.20
68. Justin Verlander – Might be the only American League starter I’ll consider drafting. Projections: 19-7/200/3.75/1.20
69. Rafael Furcal – I would actually consider taking Raffy because his last year made him a bit of a bargain this year. Projections: 110/15/65/.285/35
70. Gary Sheffield – You need some ‘tude on your team. Projections: 90/25/80/15/.285
71. Carlos Pena – I’m predicting he’ll make fantasy owners miserable this year. Projections: 85/22/80/.260 and he falls into a platoon.
72. Josh Beckett – I was down on this schmohawk before the tender back. Now? Not with a ten foot pole. Projections: 18-9/190/3.90/1.20
73. Edwin Encarncion – I’m wild about Edwin even if he’s a total jerkoff. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15
74. Delmon Young – I stay away from 2nd year players when possible. Delmon’s one guy I’m considering. Projections: 70/20/100/.285/15
75. John Smoltz – He seems like he’s almost as nice a guy as Vernon Wells, right? (BTW, if you need me to tell you about Smoltz, you’ve been in an Afghani cave for too long.) Projections: 16-7/160/3.75/1.22
76. Carlos Guillen – I think he might be the biggest overpriced piece of garbage since Morneau last year. Projections: 95/15/75/.300/8
77. Ryan Zimmerman – And here’s where I pass. Wrist surgery and people are drafting him like it means nothing. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5
78. Hideki Matsui – Godzilla loves porn and I don’t mind him. So there’s that. Projections: 105/25/100/.295
79. Roy Oswalt – Ks are trending the wrong way, but he’s still very reliable. Take a middle reliever to offset the Ks. Projections: 15-7/150/3.60/1.22
80. Todd Helton – He’s getting to the point where he’s undervalued. Let’s be realistic for a second. He’s not getting you 40 homers anymore, but what he does give you is not dreadful. Projections: 90/15/90/.315
81. Chris “No B” Young – A tall pitcher with back issues concerns me, but I’d take his 22 starts over some guys 32. Projections: 15-5/160/3.00/1.10 and he only pitches in a 150 innings.
82. Carlos Zambrano – In my opinion, any guy that does what he did to Barrett you have to like. Projections: 18-7/210/3.60/1.30
83. John Maine – I love Maine this year. And not just for their lobster – oofa! I will have Maine on at least one team. You should too. Projections: 18-9/210/3.60/1.20
84. Rickie Weeks – This question still lingers, if Clint Barmes, Rocco Baldelli and Rickie Weeks board your cross-country flight, do you get off? Projections: 85/15/50/.260/22
85. Jeff Kent – At some point he’s going to get old, I think it’s coming soon. Act accordingly. Projections: 80/22/90/.300
86. Mike Lowell – His luck with runners on last year was a collision of good fortune and stoopid good fortune. Projections: 75/20/105/.280/3
87. Shane Victorino – I love Victorino. If I were a 300 lb. Hawaiian woman, Victorino and I would be living off the coast of Oahu. Projections: 115/15/60/.280/40
88. Vernon Wells – O, Vernon. Don’t suck this year. Projections: 90/30/90/.280/7
89. Jeff Francoeur – Do you think if Frenchy were popular in 2001 he would have went by Freedom? Projections: 85/25/110/.280/5
90. Chris B. Young – Krispie will frustrate for extended periods of time with swings and misses. Projections: 90/25/70/.245/32
91. Jhonny Peralta – The only thing I don’t like about Peralta this year is the spelling of his first name. He’s a big buh-Buy. Projections: 85/32/105/.270/3
92. Brian McCann – He’s the last catcher of the top one hundred (eff Mauer) so this will be the last time I tell you to draft Carlos Ruiz in the 18th round. Projections: 75/25/105/.285
93. Andruw Jones – Ok, I’m aware he reported to camp looking like Umaga. But he can’t be over the hill yet, can he? Projections: 85/32/110/.250
94. Mike Jacobs – The Marlins will give the Nats a run for most unwatchable team, though I do like Jacobs’s upside. Projections: 70/30/95/.285
95. Jim Thome – You can set your watch to his stats. Projections: 70/30/90/.265
96. Ryan Garko – Garko’s getting overlooked in the drafts I’ve seen. Watch him jump up to the fourth round next year. Projections: 75/27/90/.285
97. Josh Hamilton – Hamilton gets high on life! Projections: 70/27/80/.300/5
98. Brad Hawpe – Here’s what I said in January, “Hawpe will be sensational this year and not hit lefties. He sported a .418 OBP last year against righties. Grab Spilborghs for next to nothing and platoon them yourself, cause Spilborghs had a .426 OBP against lefties. Hawpe/Spilborghs combo projections: 105/35/110/.300/5.” I stand by that.
99. Nick Swisher – He’s pretty. Projections: 95/30/100/.275
100. James Shields – His year end numbers will blow away Kazmir’s. Projections: 14-6/185/3.75/1.10
101. Rich Hill – No top hundred list is complete without a 101st pick. Projections: 18-7/200/3.60/1.15
102. Kelly Johnson – Ok, last one, but only because I hate the way people are passing by Kelly Johnson. Look at these projections: 85/17/65/.275/12, there’s a fifty percent chance those will be better than Rickie Weeks. (BTW, as for the Weeks question above, I get off the plane. You?)

Previously, we covered the top ten and twenty overall draft picks. Then we went onto the top twenty 1st basemen and 2nd basemen to draft. Now, we cover the top twenty third basemen. 3rd base is stacked with talent, Pete Nice and MC Serch notwithstanding. To contrast and compare, you can look at our 2007 Player Rater here.

1. Alex Rodriguez – See our top ten overall.

2. David Wright – See our top ten overall.

3. Miguel Cabrera – See our top ten overall.

4. B.J. Upton – (Here’s what I said about B.J. when he placed 3rd overall for the top twenty 2nd basemen.) …His BABIP was leprechaunian so the average will drop a bit, but he’s a young Soriano. Speed, power, quick wrists. Projections: 100/30/85/.280/27

5. Ryan Braun – Here’s what I said when not placing Braun in the top twenty overall: He’ll probably go before “after 20,” but that’s fine. You don’t want him in ’08. For every McGwire Rookie of the Year, there’s a dozen woulda-shouldas. Let someone else deal with the possible headache, because as stated here by The Baseball Analysts:

The only disconcerting split involves (Braun’s) BB/SO totals against righties. He has drawn five more walks vs. LHP in 151 fewer AB while striking out just 13% of the time as compared to 24% vs. RHP.

As you can see, I’m not completely down on Braun, because I am placing him fifth overall at 3rd base. Just be careful about overvaluing him. Since the top twenty overall was written, he will now play outfield. This will give him position flexibility, so he’s a bit more valuable. I still wouldn’t go overboard. Projections: 100/27/105/.280/12

6. Aramis Ramirez – As I wrote here, he’s in for a big rebound. To summarize what was written, he had wrist problems for half the season and then started clubbing homers in September as he started to feel well. Projections: 95/37/120/.305

7. Garrett Atkins – Those buckteeth are magnificent, aren’t they? His pre- and post-All-Star splits were bad for average(.259/.349), but they were pretty even for power(13/12). He didn’t take it to the next level in ’07 like some predicted, but he’s still only 28. Projections: 85/34/115/.300

8. Mike Lowell – Everything broke right for Mr. Lowell last year. Every time he came up with runners on, he was dyn-o-mite. .406 average with men on first and second. .615 average with men on second and third. .318 average with the bases loaded. He batted forty points above his career average on the season at the age of 33 (He looks like he might be in his 40s.). The Green Mawnster is a haven for a rightie doubles hitter, so maybe the drop off won’t be that bad, but expect a drop off. Projections: 75/20/105/.290/3

9. Chipper Jones – Not sure I understand the allure of Chipper. Feel he gets some sort of boost on name value. He’s long past the days of hitting 30 home runs and you’re begging for 100 RBIs. His eye is impeccable, so you’re getting someone that will avoid prolonged slumps, but you’re not getting any upside whatsoever. Projections: 85/25/85/.315/5

10. Alex Gordon – Member what you thought Zimmerman would do last year? Well, Gordon’s gonna do it this year. I think the hype Braun’s getting this offseason, Gordon will be getting in ’09. You missed Braun last year; don’t miss Gordon this year. Projections: 80/25/90/.280/20

11. Adrian Beltre – I had him on one team when he had his I’m-playing-for-a-contract season. I will never have him again. He’s a nightmare of inconsistency. Six homers one month, 1 homer and a below .200 average another month. He’ll drive you mad. Projections: 85/25/85/.260/7

12. Kevin Kouzmanoff – He really seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half of last year and he’s hitting third this year (as long as he doesn’t repeat his 1st half from last year). He always knew how to take a walk in the minors, and I think he can do the same in the bigs. Here’s to high hopes. Projections: 90/27/105/.285

13. Ryan Zimmerman – He had wrist surgery in November of ’07. His team is better offensively this year than last, but… He had wrist surgery. Do you really wanna be messin’ with this? Come back to him in ’09, he’ll still only be 25. Projections: 90/18/90/.275/5

14. Chone Figgins – You want Juan Pierre at 3rd base? Follow along, if you have five home runs from your 3rd baseman, you better have someone hitting 50 home runs elsewhere. Also, last year’s average was an aberration. There’s a time and a place for Figgins. You find yourself falling behind in steals. Trade for him, get a boost in steals and then trade him away. Projections: 105/5/60/.290/45

15. Edwin Encarncion – Maybe I’m effin’ crazy, but I like Encarncion. He’s not winning a batting title or the Roberto Clemente Award. The Cincinnati Reds may trade him because he sucks at being a teammate and Dusty may get fed up, but if he gets his ABs he could surprise you. Projections: 75/25/85/.275/15

16. Kevin Youlikis – See top twenty 1st basemen.

17. Troy Glaus – A pothole at 3rd base. I was going to leave him off completely, but I thought people would rise up in revolt. Avoid Glaus at all costs, especially if he ends up on the Cardinals. A switch of leagues could mean a .240 average. Projections: 65/22/70/.255 and LaRussa offers to be his designated driver by the All-Star break.

18. Ty Wigginton – If you’re taking Wiggs, you’re not trying hard enough. This late into a position, go for a high upside guy. Such as #19 or #20. Ty’s Projections: 70/20/70/.270

19. Evan Longoria – Iwamura’s going to 2nd base and Morgan Ensberg’s gonna play 3rd. Or Evan Longoria. Let’s see, who will be playing there, Ensberg or Longoria? Now think about how the Rays bungled Upton and Young in the minors. Leaving them there about a season too long. So Longoria might not be playing in the majors this year, but this is a spring training decision for you to make. If you’re drafting now, you have to take a flyer. Projections: 70/20/75/.285 and he’s manning 3rd base from May until October.

20. Andy LaRoche – He’s done all there is to do in the minors by the age of 23. It’s him or Nomar. Please, Torre, put Nomar out to pasture. Mia needs help with the kids. Projections: 60/22/75/.310/5

After the “top twenty,” plenty obviously, but one I like that there was no room for is:

Casey Blake – He’ll come super cheap and you can do a lot worse. He’s on a good offensive team and his manager knows how to use him. Don’t expect the world, but in AL-only, you draft him. Projections: 75/20/75/.270/5

Who I don’t like after the top twenty – Scott Rolen. It was a fine career. It’s over. Now go wrap yourself in an endangered mongoose coat and drive slowly by LaRussa’s home.

Tomorrow we finish the infield with the top twenty shortstops.