Fantasy Baseball Advice

Bottom of the Ninth: Reeding Tea Leaves

May 17, 2012 By: Albert Lang Category: Closers 33 Comments →

If we take a look at the BS meter, we see Heath Bell still owns the pole position. It still appears that three BS this early in the season is the indicator of a closer losing his job. This means Henry Rodriguez is in some tough straights, word.

Otherwise, aside from health, most relievers are “settling down.” The oddest thing on this chart: Chris Perez. The oddest thing not on this chart: Jim Johnson and Fernando Rodney (no jinx, jinx?).

Washington Nationals: As noted, Rodriguez is creeping up the BS meter and in rather spectacular fashion: in five appearances since May 8, Rodriguez has pitched 3.2 IPs, allowed nine base runners and posted a 14.37 ERA. He has blown two saves, saved two games and recorded a hold. In the hold, his latest outing, Rodriguez threw 21 pitches, just eight for strikes. Sean Burnett had to come in and clean up the mess for the save. Rodriguez has one more blown save in him before an outright demotion. Given his lack of control, when he blows his next one is anyone’s guess. That said, it’s time to kick the tires on Burnett. When it’s all said and done, Rodriguez will have fine numbers, they will just include masterful and disastrous outings. There is no in between with him and his control. Both Brad Lidge and Drew Storen have just begun throwing following surgeries, with Storen targeting the All-star break.

Detroit Tigers: Jose Valverde, with one of the longer leashes in MLB, would have to get injured to lose the closer role. So, what did he do? He went and hurt his lower back. At the moment, there is absolutely no clarity on the type of injury. Whether Octavio Dotel or Joaquin Benoit get saves during the upheaval is also up in the air. Given how possible it is this situation bears no saves, if I’m speculating, I’ll go Benoit. He’s a good pitcher, whereas Dotel really can’t get lefties out. ROTW for Benoit: 2.89 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 rate. He has been walking guys a bit more and throwing his fastball a lot less, but expect him to get the location under control.

Chicago White Sox: After earning the save Monday night and being, ya know, good at pitching, I fully expect Addison Reed to be the closer ROTW. He’ll put up fine numbers (3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 11.9 K /9 rate). If he’s somehow available, go get him now. This carousel stops here (god I wish I could be comfortable typing that).

New York Mets: Frank Francisco is also jumping up the BS meter, but has received a vote of confidence from his manager and might be tipping his pitches, so there’s optimism he can turn it around. It’s amazing what counts for optimism these days. He did secure his most recent save opportunity, but has also allowed at least one run in his last three outings. For the year, he’s getting a bit jobbed by a pitiful strand rate and enlarged BABIP. He’s still getting a ton of swinging strikes and maintaining his velocity. For some reason, he is throwing his splitter a bit more which could be partly to blame for his walk rate. Or it could be that it’s just 14.2 IPs. With relievers, though, we can’t really make the small sample size argument, as they are judged on SSS all year long. If healthy, I expect Francisco to be fine, posting a 3.15 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.75 K/9 rate ROTW. In fact, I also think Bobby Parnell will end up with the second most saves on the squad, believing there’s a chance both Francisco and Jon Rauch get injured/traded.

Miami Marlins: The Marlins keep winning despite an unreliable bullpen. Since May 1, Heath Bell has two wins, a save and a blown save. During that span, he has pitched five innings, allowed 12 base runners and posted a 9.00 ERA. Meanwhile, Steve Cishek has two wins and two blown saves in May, but has pitched solid and Edward Mujica has three holds, two saves and a blown save. Again, I’d totally avoid this situation if possible. I do think, as commenter @Jack predicted, Cishek will be first in line for saves if this situation ever stabilizes. However, I give him a 55% chance of having the most non-Bell saves with Mujica having a 43% chance and a 2% chance the world ends because of this. ROTW, Bell probably gets the most saves, but it’s going to be ugly.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Scott Downs has been fantastic all year, yet Ernesto Frieri, aka Padres closer of the future, got the final out in a non-save chance Tuesday night. This is likely nothing, but is a bit confusing. I suppose Downs giving up a hit to Daric Barton would make sense to go righty-righty on Kurt Suzuki, but if that’s the case wouldn’t it make sense to give Frieri the bulk of the save opportunities? For the moment, I think Frieri is a sneaky and worthwhile add, even though I’m dubious on whether he can maintain this success away from San Diego. In addition, Jordan Walden has been good lately and really only had two bad outings. ROTW, Walden will post a 3.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 9.90 K/9 rate. I think he gets the most saves rest of the way, but it’s a toss up with Downs and Frieri performing so well. Don’t rock the boat and all that.

Arizona Diamondbacks: With all the closer disasters, J.J. Putz has somewhat flown under the radar. However, he has allowed runs in five of his 12 appearances. The bulk of the damage came on May 9 when he allowed four runs starting with the bottom of the Cardinals batting order. The Diamondbacks were losing, so it wasn’t a save opportunity, but he made a winnable game totally unwinnable. Still, he pitched a relatively clean frame in his last outing. So far, on the year, he hasn’t walked anyone, is striking out a good number and getting as many ground balls as ever. He has just decided to give up all his HRs early on. He’ll be fine the rest of the season. However, he’s usually good for a DL trip a year and might be traded if the Diamondbacks find themselves out of the race, making David Hernandez a worthy pick-up.

New York Yankees: Of course, David Robertson is injured; it’s that kind of year. The strained oblique will prohibit Robertson from throwing for a week or so. While he believes he can be back in 15 days, don’t most foolish ball players? Enter Rafael Soriano. Soriano has been pretty good this year, only benefiting from allowing no HRs. ROTW, Soriano should be fine, if unspectacular: 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.5 K /9 rate. Robertson is worth a stash based on skills alone, but Soriano has the repertoire to take the job and keep it all year.

Name BS Opps Name BS Opps
Heath Bell 4 7 Chris Perez 1 13
Francisco Cordero 3 9 Chris Sale 1 1
Henry Rodriguez 3 12 Clay Hensley 1 5
Javy Guerra 3 11 Craig Kimbrel 1 12
Matt Belisle 3 6 David Carpenter 1 2
Rex Brothers 3 7 David Robertson 1 6
Alfredo Aceves 2 9 Francisco Rodriguez 1 9
Brad Lidge 2 4 Glen Perkins 1 5
Brandon League 2 10 Greg Holland 1 2
Carlos Marmol 2 6 Hisanori Takahashi 1 3
David Hernandez 2 8 Jason Grilli 1 9
Edward Mujica 2 11 Joaquin Benoit 1 11
Frank Francisco 2 12 Joe Nathan 1 8
Grant Balfour 2 9 Joel Hanrahan 1 8
Hector Santiago 2 8 John Axford 1 7
J.J. Putz 2 8 Jonathan Broxton 1 9
Jason Motte 2 8 Jonny Venters 1 7
Javier Lopez 2 6 Jordan Walden 1 4
Joel Peralta 2 12 Kenley Jansen 1 12
Jon Rauch 2 6 Kyle Kendrick 1 2
Jose Valverde 2 9 Logan Ondrusek 1 5
Kerry Wood 2 5 Luke Gregerson 1 6
Matt Thornton 2 9 Matt Lindstrom 1 3
Pedro Strop 2 9 Michael Bowden 1 1
Rafael Dolis 2 9 Mike Adams 1 8
Ramon Ramirez 2 4 Mike Dunn 1 3
Scott Downs 2 11 Octavio Dotel 1 6
Sergio Santos 2 4 Rafael Betancourt 1 8
Steve Cishek 2 5 Santiago Casilla 1 9
Alexi Ogando 1 8 Sean Marshall 1 8
Andrew Cashner 1 5 Tom Wilhelmsen 1 7
Brett Myers 1 10 Tyler Clippard 1 10
Brian Fuentes 1 5 Vicente Padilla 1 7
Casey Janssen 1 4 Vinnie Pestano 1 10
Wilton Lopez 1 4

 

 

Closer Look

May 01, 2012 By: Grey Category: Closers 405 Comments →

Well, not much has changed for closers since last month when we did a run down of all of them.  Kimbrel got a save, Axford got a save, and everyone else sucks.  Holly Robinson Peete closers are a mess!  I don’t think there’s ever been so many Brain Freezes before.  I almost feel like adding an extra category below the Brain Freezes called, “The Legend of Gloom.”  Wha’ happened?  Did someone poison the bullpen water?  Has Mariano Rivera made it so when he retires there won’t be any more closers?  There will only be starters and “Those Other Guys.”  To recap this month in closing quickly:  Valverde has been less than stellar, Putz and Street just don’t close games, Motte hasn’t been good, Brian Wilson became Casilla who Bochy pulled after one batter during one game, Joel Hanrahananananan gave fantasy owners the question, “Who’s Juan Cruz?”, Sergio Santos may start throwing at some point in the next few weeks, the Red Sox gave the job to someone who has an over 10 ERA, Frank-Frank hasn’t had a blank-blank inning in forever, Kyle Farnsworth left stage right and Rodney, who couldn’t get saves last year, entered stage “I can’t believe Rodney’s closing games,” Guerra’s been about as bad as expected, Walden blew one save and lost the job, What the H. Santiago?, What the H. Bell?, Grant Balfour might get traded, Jim Johnson gave fantasy owners the question, “Juan Cruz or Pedro Strop?  Wait, who?”, the closers on terrible teams have looked good so they’ll probably be traded or just not save games, and Brad Lidge is afraid of heights and the mound is above the field so he went to the DL which is on sea level.  Got all of that?  Yeah, I’m not sure I did either.  Anyway, here’s all the closers for 2012 fantasy baseball:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Craig Kimbrel (Jonny Venters, Kris Medlen)
2. John Axford (Francisco Rodriguez)
3. Mariano Rivera (David Robertson, Rafael Soriano)
4. Jonathon Papelbon (Antonio Bastardo, Chad Qualls)

Donkeycorns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkeycorns.

5. Huston Street (+3) (Luke Gregerson, Andrew Cashner)
6. Jim Johnson (+15) (Pedro Strop, Matt Lindstrom)
7. Joel Hanrahan (+4) (Juan Cruz, Jason Grilli)
8. J.J. Putz (-2) (David Hernandez, Bryan Shaw)
9. Jason Motte (-1) (Fernando Salas, Mitchell Boggs)
10. Jose Valverde (-6) (Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel)
11. Rafael Betancourt (+7) (Rex Brothers)
12. Brandon League (+6) (Tom Wilhelmsen)
13. Fernando Rodney (Joel Peralta, Jake McGee)
14. Grant Balfour (+6) (Brian Fuentes, Ryan Cook)
15.
Brett Myers (+8) (David Carpenter, Brandon Lyon)
16. Joe Nathan (+6) (Mike Adams, Alexi Ogando)
17. Kenley Jansen/Javy Guerra (+2) (Matt Guerrier)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Matt Capps– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Valencia in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

18. Sean Marshall (+3) (Aroldis Chapman, Jose Arredondo)
19.
Santiago Casilla (-10) (Sergio Romo, Jeremy Affeldt)
20. Chris Perez
(+4) (Vinnie Pestano, Tony Sipp)
21.
Matt Capps (+6) (Glen Perkins, Jared Burton)
22.
Jonathan Broxton (+6) (Aaron Crow)
23. Henry Rodriguez (+6) (Tyler Clippard, Brad Lidge)
24. Frank Francisco (-8) (Jon Rauch, Bobby Parnell, Ramon Ramirez)
25. Alfredo Aceves (-13) (Franklin Morales, Daniel Bard)
26. Carlos Marmol (-11) (Rafael Dolis, Kerry Wood)
27. Heath Bell (-19) (Steve Cishek, Edward Mujica)
28. Scott Downs (-11) (Jordan Walden, LaTroy Hawkins)
29. Matt Thornton/Hector Santiago
(-1) (Addison Reed, Jesse Crain)
30. Francisco Cordero (-15) (Casey Janssen, Luis Perez, Sergio Santos, Lloyd Moseby)

Hold The Line – National League

May 01, 2012 By: Smokey Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball 6 Comments →

So with a continuation from previous post about fantasy baseball middle relievers today will be the senior circuit and the National League.  I personally tend to notice that it is easier to stream or pick up relievers from the NL because of the way they substitute pitchers in games more frequently.  Maybe it’s just me, you can agree to disagree if you choose, but I will always be right regardless of what you say.  Here’s some pitchers that get holds for 2012 fantasy baseball:

NL East

New York – Everyone handcuffed Frank Frank with Rauch as well they should, but in the holds department Tim Byrdak and Bobby Parnell are the main set-up to the set-up guys if that makes any type of sense.

Philadelphia – Antonio Bastardo was the early on favorite to garner most of the holds attention.  Retread Chad Qualls seems to be the go-to guy in the early going. Not a great situation, in general, as Philly’s starters average almost 8 innings a start.

Miami – This to me is the place to come and get a nice mixed daiquiri and maybe an unheralded RP.  Steve Chisek, Edward Mujica and Randy Choate form a nice triumvirate of relievers in front of Bell.  Out of the 3, I would take Chisek.

Washington – Tyler Clippard is the guy most owned, he has had it rough in the beginning, but is a good bet for 30 plus here.  Sean Burnett has been turned into an everyday guy to a more situational guy and it suits him.  Craig Stammen is the sleeper guy, showing great K rate and a good source for vulture wins.

Atlanta – Everyday Jonny is owned or should be in most formats. Kris Medlen and Eric O’Flaherty form a nice righty/lefty setup in front of him.

NL Central

St Louis – The more I watch St Louis, the more I am starting to like Mitchell Boggs as the guy in front of Motte.  Marc Rzepczynski is a fill-in for the tough lefties and both guys should finish above 25 Holds here.

Milwaukee – K-Rod is, well, K-Rod… Shows signs of being unhittable and then looks like a tether ball.  Jose Veras is a nice option to have and has pitched semi-effectively to date.  Kameron Loe is the sleeper to watch here.

Cincinnati – Aroldis Chapman is all the rage, like jean jackets and IOU sweatshirts, and, to be honest, he should be starting. Logan Ondrusek has done a stand-up job in the absence of Nick Masset.

Chicago – Yuck, can I just skip them?  Wood is hurt. Rafael Dolis is young and spotty at best.  Definitely a bullpen to avoid.  Newly acquired Michael Bowden could become useful, so monitor it closely

Houston – Outside of Wilton Lopez, Fernando Rodriguez and David Carpenter are more names for NL-only, then mixed variety.

Pittsburgh – They can’t score so how are they supposed to have a lead.  Do they even need a bullpen?  Juan Cruz did a great job filling in at closer for Joel Hanrahan and is rosterable based on handcuff.  Sleeper here is Jason Grilli, nice 10/1 K/bb rate in the early going.

NL West

Los Angeles – Kenley Jansen is most likely the closer of the future (or of right now).  Josh Lindblom is the guy no one knows, but is climbing up Hold ranks for me.

San Diego – What happened? San Diego used to be the maven for relief pitching and they have three, count it, three holds as of me writing this.  Cashner is the guy to own because of the inevitable trade of Street.  You can pick any other reliever in the bullpen for the Friars and their numbers are excellent just no counting stats yet. Monitor close as 3-4 guys have great ratios and will eventually put up holds in bunches.

San Francisco – Well, Romo is still the man here, Casilla is the one turning out the lights and Clay Hensley and Javier Lopez are the guys that you want for holds after Romo.  Just like Bochy drew it up in his ginormous head.  Don’t forget about Affeldt here, that’s all I am saying.

Colorado – It’s the Rex Brothers and Matt Belisle show here as it seems they pitch everyday for the Rockies.  Guys to keep an eye on are Matt Reynolds and Josh Roenicke.

Arizona – Bryan Shaw keeps stealing David Hernandez’s thunder by getting saves. Both are decent options for holds also. Though if Putz comes to shove, I think Hernandez is the closer in waiting.  Deeper leagues can look at Craig Breslow.

Bottom of the Ninth: What to Look for in the First Week

April 05, 2012 By: Albert Lang Category: 2012 Fantasy Baseball, Closers 27 Comments →

Grey covered the Andrew Bailey and Frank Francisco situations nicely on Tuesday. However, I had already started putting information together, so I’ll leave you with a few lines from my Francisco write-up:

While Francisco is not expected to miss anytime, we’re talking about a relatively fragile relief pitcher here and a Mets organization that has a hard enough time keeping healthy players off the disabled list. Jon Rauch is next in line and is a good speculative add. He’s also a member of the fragile Freddy all-stars so take a look at Bobby Parnell in most dynasty/deep league and in super deep ones Ramon Ramirez deserves a look.

As for the Red Sox, Bailey, when healthy, will be the closer. Of course, it could be four months before he’s fully healthy and how often he remains healthy is really up in the air. Alfredo Aceves is an intriguing arm in the pen; Grey just went over his Aceves fantasy this morning.

The other option, Mark Melancon, needs to prove he can hang. Some suggest he doesn’t have the raw stuff to be anything other than an average set-up guy in the American League East. Melancon deserves an add and should get at least 10 saves, but I wouldn’t count on more and wouldn’t mind trading him quickly. In reality, Bard could likely end up with the most saves for the Red Sox this season.

Tampa Bay Rays: With Grey around, do you even need me? He clearly was on top of the Kyle Farnsworth situation yesterday. As he noted, the elbow pain is no joke and the timetable for Farnsworth’s recovery is a great unknown. The Rays have built a dynamic and cheap bullpen recently and Manager Joe Maddon has shown the willingness to mix and match with interim closers and committee.

That said, Joel Peralta is clearly at the top of the heap and the “reliever to own.” Peralta throws a fastball-splitter-curve at hitters and has had considerable success lately. He will likely post an ERA around 3.35 a solid 1.17 WHIP and 57 K’s. Fernando Rodney is also lurking, but he’s barely a league average reliever. I’m willing to bet he hurts your ratios en route to 6 saves, i.e., it’s not worth it.

One of the more intriguing arms in the pen is J.P. Howell who disappeared from baseball consciousness after missing all of 2010 and most of 2011. However, a healthy Howell is a dynamo on the mound, capable of a 3.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 65 K’s. While he’s a lefty, Jake McGee (another devilish southpaw) is also in the pen, solving the “you can’t use your one lefty as a closer” conundrum. Speaking of McGee, last year’s under-the-radar saves option, he has dominated the minors putting up K:BB rates worth salivating over. Look for him to post similar numbers to Howell (3.25 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 63 K’s), but is probably behind Howell in the saves line.

Lastly, there is recently rotation banished Wade Davis. Davis has the stuff and repertoire that should play as a high leverage reliever.  In most leagues, I’d just avoid this situation altogether as the likelihood of any one reliever posting 15+ saves seems small. However, for deeper leagues where every save matters, I’d rank them (in terms of most 2012 saves): Peralta, Farnsworth, Howell, McGee, Davis, Rodney. Keep an eye on Davis in keeper/dynasty leagues as he could very well end up the closer of the immediate future.

Jim Johnson: Johnson has a 6.75 spring ERA in just eight innings. He has allowed seven hits, seven runs and six earned runs, while walking six and striking out five. For the last week, it’s been speculated that Johnson has lost velocity. Over the weekend, MASN Sports reported that Johnson wasn’t concerned about any dip in velocity. Then, according to Rotowire, Johnson topped out at 95 MPH on Saturday (which just happened to be his first back-to-back appearance of the Spring). Johnson took Sunday off and pitched again Monday, sitting at 90-92 MPHs. While velocity is always important, movement is vital to Johnson and his need to get ground balls. It’ll be important to watch his first few outings to see if he is getting the dip on his fastball. If he doesn’t net a ton of GBs out of the gate, he could be in trouble. In addition, it might not matter, as the Orioles have a relatively poor infield defense which hampers Johnson’s upside. At the moment, there isn’t an overwhelming need to go out and add Matt Lindstrom or Kevin Gregg, but if Johnson struggles to keep the ball on the ground, feel free to kick the tires on those relievers in deeper leagues.

Chicago White Sox: For shizzles and giggles or to get back at everyone who snickered at him when he got beat down by Nolan Ryan, Robin Ventura refuses to name his closer to start the year. Clearly how Ventura uses his pen early in the season will determine the roles, so pay careful attention to who slots in the seventh, eighth and ninth innings. While that’s obvious, it is important to note what situations Ventura faces in high leverage relief roles, i.e. if lefties are coming up in a tight game in the 8th and Venture doesn’t go to Matt Thornton, he’s the likely closer. If he does go to Thornton, Addison Reed is likely the closer. I do believe Thornton will start the year as closer, but he didn’t thrive in the role last year (albeit in limited opportunities) and he could also be trade bait for the potentially rebuilding club. Thornton and Reed should end up with similar amounts of saves, maybe in the high teens. In super deep leagues, Jesse Crain is a person of interest because Thornton failed last year and Reed is unproven. At the moment, though, Crain is an unspectacular middle relief guy who is a couple of steps from closing. The dark horse in the pen is rookie Hector Santiago. While Santiago pitched well in Spring Training and there’s “buzz” surrounding him, he has just 83 innings above A+ and he wasn’t exactly dominant (7.99 K/9 and 4.21 BB/9 rate). His stuff in the low minors played particularly well, but the 24-year-old might be a season away from being an impact major league reliever.

Kansas City Royals: No doubt trying to outdo young upstart Ventura, Ned Yost is similarly throwing a tantrum and refusing to name his closer. At the start of the season, Yost is likely to go with a more committee approach as he finds the right lever to pull in high leverage situations. In addition, Jonathan Broxton is likely unable to pitch in back-to-back games. If he could be used like this, I’d bet on him being the closer already. As it stands, Greg Holland will get options at the beginning of the year and, with his skill set, could lock the role down. I do believe Broxton will end up with more saves and be the closer the minute he’s able to go back-to-back, however I’d like to own both to hedge my bets. Certainly I’d rather either of these guys than Melancon, Aceves and any of the Rays pen options.

Oakland Athletics: While Grant Balfour is(was) the closer on Opening Day, keep tabs on Fautino de los Santos. Balfour could easily be trade bait and de los Santos can really strike guys out. Of course, he’s got a lot of Carlos Marmol in him and has always walked a ton of guys. If de los Santos can get off to a good start in the seventh/eighth innings and limits his walks, he’s a great guy to stash in deep leagues.

Cleveland Indians: Filed in the obvious department: keep tabs on the health of Chris Perez. In addition, look at early velocity and swinging strike reports and, more broadly, his K:BB rate, which was abysmal last year. If he continues 2011’s trends, set your sights on flamethrower Vinnie Pestano.

Washington Nationals: Another elbow issue to a reliever has put the Nationals bullpen in disarray. While it appeared Brad Lidge or Tyler Clippard had the stuff and inside track to saves, flame throwing Henry Rodriguez has emerged as a leading candidate. Rodriguez, who had a phenomenal Spring, has long posted dominant K/9 rates but has also walked the farm and then some. It’s impossible to know if Rodriguez has the “closer mentality” and, with his inability to find the plate at times, he’ll walk a tightrope, so he’s likely not worth a major investment. He could strike out 80 guys this year with a 3.50 ERA, but his WHIP (1.37) will be untenable at times. Storen is expected back in April; don’t waste a ton of FAAB or moves on this situation. At the end of the day, Storen will have the most saves, followed by Lidge and then  Rodriguez.

Mariano Rivera: No need to be worried here. On Sunday, Rivera allowed a run and two hits, the first time he allowed an earned run in Spring Training since 2008. Good lord, for all of the above upheaval, marvel at Rivera.

Bottom of the Ninth: Hot Motte

September 19, 2011 By: R.J. Category: Closers 5 Comments →

Remember the good ol’ days when the St. Louis Cardinals were relying on Ryan Franklin to close games for them? Then when he completely flopped, everyone they auditioned as a replacement couldn’t hack it. Then, as luck would have it, they finally found their man: Fernando Salas. He notched his first save on April 28, and 22 more would follow through the end of August.

As the calendar turned to September, the fun ended for Salas and his fantasy owners. Salas worked the seventh and eighth innings of an 8-3 game on September 1, allowing one run and watching Jason Motte finish things out in a non-save situation in the ninth. Motte would then grab the next six saves for the Cardinals before blowing one on September 16 (through no fault of his own) and seeing Salas get an extra-innings save.

Unfortunately for Salas, that could prove to be his last save of the season. The two relievers have very similar numbers, but Motte is just a little bit better and he keeps the ball down. That should translate to an effective stint as closer for Motte over the rest of this season and beyond.

Kyle Farnsworth has blown two saves since recording one on September 7, and with the Rays surging and trying to catch the Red Sox for the Wild Card, that’s not going to cut the mustard. An elbow problem has kept Farnsworth off the mound over the last week-plus, with Joel Peralta collecting a couple of saves in the interim. Don’t expect the Rays to go back to Farnsworth until it’s clear he’s 100 percent — they can’t afford any more blown saves.

Kevin Gregg managed to secure his last save on September 2, allowing a walk and two hits in a scoreless inning but nevertheless slamming the door. That was the breaking point for the Orioles, who let Jim Johnson pick up the next two saves. Unfortunately, they just didn’t know how to quit Gregg, going to him for another save opportunity last weekend, which he blew by allowing two runs while only recording one out. Back to Johnson for two more saves, including one of the two-inning variety.

Johnson is clearly the guy to own here for the rest of the year, and hopefully this is the last we hear of Gregg as a closer. I think Johnson has a shot at being a solid closer in 2012, but it’s more likely the Orioles throw too much money at a guy with “experience.” You know, like Kevin Gregg.

The Mets have managed four saves in September, with two going to Bobby Parnell, one to Josh Stinson and one to Manny Acosta. Stinson’s came in extra innings as a result of a blown save by Parnell; Acosta was then called upon for the save the next day. Parnell was given the next shot at recording a save for the Mets, but he blew that one too. He ended up coming in during the seventh in his next appearance to pitch two scoreless innings. It’s best to avoid this bullpen, but it looks like Acosta may be the guy to get the next look. That’s just a guess.

Brian Wilson is on the precipice of returning, so I wouldn’t get too invested into Santiago Casilla, who notched saves on Wednesday and Thursday. I expected Sergio Romo to get some looks in the ninth inning once he returned, but despite great results, he’s not closing. It’s hard to argue against either option — Casilla and Romo rank fourth and fifth, respectively, in ERA among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched this year.

Frank Francisco is still the guy to own in Toronto, despite a little rough patch earlier in the month. And since we’ve already talked far too much about the Toronto bullpen this year, let’s move on.

Sean Marshall is pilfering a few saves from Carlos Marmol, with two already in September. If every potential save is imporant to your team, Marshall is a good add for the rest of the year. Don’t worry about Marmol; he didn’t get a save opportunity on Saturday thanks to pitching three innings over the previous two days. I wish I got that kind of time off at my job.

Other guys that have already picked up at least one save in September and could get more while sitting on your waiver wire include Kenley Jansen and Chris Sale. Also Rafael Betancourt, though I assume he’s long gone in most competitive leagues.