All the final 2018 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2019 (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Actually, RECAP, literally. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. But not entirely. To recapitulate, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2018 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Max Scherzer – What’s the margin of error on my projections vs. Scherzer’s final line? .0004? Hashtag nailed it. Of course, I would never own Scherzer, but I can still marvel at him. Actually, he should be a Marvel superhero he’s so good, and those eyes. How surprised would you be if he was an actual cyborg? Here’s a question for you to gauge your level of surprise: if you time traveled from 1985 to present day and found out about Caitlyn Jenner, would that surprise you more or less than finding out Scherzer was really a cyborg? At the age of 34, he had a career high K-rate with a career high average velocity on his fastball! And this is from a guy who has always made that bread on Ks and velocity. This peak strikeout rate might also be directly related to how the entire league is all a bunch of little Dave Kingmans. Preseason Rank #1, 2018 Projections: 18-7/2.46/0.94/277 in 222 IP, Final Numbers: 18-7/2.53/0.91/300 in 220 2/3 IP
2. Justin Verlander – I alluded to this about fifteen times during the season, but this Verlander end-of-the-season ranking is downright shocking to me. Not saying our Player Rater is wrong, I’m saying I think common perception about how guys rank, due to their fantasy value, is wrong. If you were to put five ‘perts in a room, all five would give you a different guy who they think ended the season as the number two pitcher, after they described in detail their childhood memories of Strat-o-Matic. What I think we can take away from this is triplefold. First fold, wins play a huge part in a pitcher’s value and they have little control over them, i.e., Verlander vs. deGrom. Twofold, ERA and WHIP are great, but Ks matter too, and Verlander’s Ks were huge. Three fold, there’s no three fold. Preseason Rank #12, 2018 Projections: 16-9/3.41/1.15/223 in 212 IP, Final Numbers: 16-9/2.52/0.90/290 in 214 IP
3. Blake Snell – I loved, loved, lurved Snell coming into the season. Wrote a sleeper post about him. Begged everyone to draft him. Yet — again with some stank — YET! this year was nothing I could’ve dreamed in my wildest dreams. By the by, doesn’t YET! look like a cool way to spell yeti? No? Okay, that’s just me then. Lame-o’s! Preseason Rank #46, 2018 Projections: 13-9/3.68/1.30/185 in 183 IP, Final Numbers: 21-5/1.89/0.97/221 in 180 2/3
4. Jacob deGrom – Kinda continued from Verlander’s blurb, but it goes to show you what wins do to fantasy value. This is so important to understand. Hitters have potential five categories they can be good in, and average is based a bit on luck, and runs and RBIs are a bit team dependent. With pitchers, wins are impossible to predict. Starters don’t get saves. ERA and WHIP are a bit team dependent (fielding, shifts, yadda). Starters are in direct control of Ks. Yes, Ks feed ERA and WHIP, but no more than homers feed runs and RBIs. Best case scenario, a hitter gives you five categories — Betts or Yelich (and others but you get the drift). Best case scenario for a pitcher with no wins (and obviously no saves) is deGrom. DeGrom is only 20th overall on the player rater! He has 15 hitters ahead of him! And this is from a pitcher who I even think had one of the greatest pitching seasons ever. So, you’re drafting a top 5 starter praying for wins and automatically punting saves. You draft many top five hitters automatically punting a category? Praying for another category? Okay, PETA’s about to come to my house because I’m beating this horse to death. Preseason Rank #7, 2018 Projections: 16-9/3.06/1.15/221 in 195 IP, Final Numbers: 10-9/1.70/0.91/269 in 217 IP
5. Corey Kluber – Member that thing that seemed obvious about how you want younger starters? Yeah, well, what I’m saying is give me Lucas Giolito when he turns 33. Preseason Rank #3, 2018 Projections: 17-7/2.61/0.97/228 in 205 IP, Final Numbers: 20-7/2.89/0.99/222 in 215 IP
6. Aaron Nola – Mentioned this earlier in the season, but we just saw the last time in about five to seven years when Nola was draftable without reaching for him in the top 40 overall. Preseason Rank #16, 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.41/1.18/188 in 184 IP, Final Numbers: 17-6/2.37/0.97/224 in 212 1/3 IP
7. Gerrit Cole – If I’m being honest, I do try to be. I didn’t like Cole coming into this year. Of course, I didn’t know the Astros were dying pine tar the color of human flesh to mask it into their starters’ arms, but, nevertheless, didn’t like Cole. Owning Cole would’ve been nice, but not owning him didn’t kill me in leagues. Either way, Cole really makes you rethink that whole ‘Ray Searage is a pitching God’ narrative. Or makes you rethink your belief in God. Preseason Rank #35, 2018 Projections: 13-10/3.78/1.23/181 in 195 IP, Final Numbers: 15-5/2.88/1.03/276 in 200 1/3 IP
8. Chris Sale – I was listening to I’m Shipping Up to Boston, one of the all-time best fight songs, and was thinking how pumped up Sale must get when he hears that that they must have to hide all those shopping mall belly button piercing kiosks. Little did we know Sale is a pitcher and a belly itcher. Preseason Rank #4, 2018 Projections: 17-9/2.87/1.01/256 in 207 IP, Final Numbers: 12-4/2.11/0.86/237 in 158 IP
9. Luis Severino – Nailed his ranking with his Ks and innings, but he took anything but the conventional route to those numbers. It was like he was using Waze at rush hour and Waze sent him across a five-lane highway at the All-Star break. His 2nd half 5.57 ERA is ludicrously bad for a top 10 starter. On the bright side (if there is one), he had a .379 BABIP in the 2nd half and a higher K/9. It’s going to take all my monocles on all my cyclopses this preseason to rank him for next year. Preseason Rank #9, 2018 Projections: 16-8/3.10/1.06/222 in 190 IP, Final Numbers: 19-8/3.39/1.14/220 in 191 1/3 IP
10. Carlos Carrasco – I had real concerns about Carrasco in the preseason, and he ended up with stats near those I projected, so I guess what I’m saying is…I’m not sure what I’m saying. He met my lowered expectations and still was a top 10 starter? Meh, I guess. Preseason Rank #8, 2018 Projections: 15-10/3.35/1.12/217 in 194 IP, Final Numbers: 17-10/3.38/1.13/231 in 192 IP
11. Trevor Bauer – Went back and looked at the comments on the top 20 starters from the preseason, and, let’s just say, my Bauer ranking was a surprise to people. Ya’ll thought I had lost my mind with a ranking of 18th overall, and he ended up 11th after missing a month, due to a fluke injury. Imagine I projected one save too. You’d burn my ass at the stake. On a related note, I see a lot of people stanning on Bauer this October because of how smart he is about his pitching on the MLB Network, and I feel the helium pushing up his 2019 ranking. Someone even mentioned how he’s their 2019 early Cy Young candidate. I said he was my preseason 2018 Cy Young and people laughed at me. Mercilessly. Don’t believe me, look at our preseason predictions. (They should’ve been laughing about my Brinson pick for ROY. Woof.) Preseason Rank #18, 2018 Projections: 15-10/3.59/1.29/204 in 189 IP, Final Numbers: 12-6/2.21/1.09/221, 1 save in 175 1/3 IP
12. Miles Mikolas – When he signed — on December 5th — oh, what a night! — I said, “Signed with the Cardinals after having a 2.18 ERA with an 8 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 in 424 2/3 IP in Japan. When I heard this, I tweeted out something obnoxious like, “But what’s his speed score?!” Ya know, cause people are saying Ohtani has an 80 speed. What I’m also saying is if Ohtani is super overrated, Mikolas might actually be a bargain. The verdict, as they say, is still out on Mikolas, but I’ve seen him compared favorably to starters like Maeda, Hendricks and teammate, Wacha. Plus, it’s the Cardinals, they make mountains out of anything that takes the hill. For safety’s sake, I’ll put him around a 7.2 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9 which is 2013 Jose Quintana, a 3.51 ERA/3.86 xFIP guy. I see now why Mikolas is Greek for ‘Me likey.'” And that’s me quoting me! My only regret, I didn’t push him even harder. Preseason Rank #74, 2018 Projections: 11-4/3.64/1.23/115 in 144 IP, Final Numbers: 18-4/2.83/1.07/146 in 200 2/3 IP
13. Patrick Corbin – I drafted Corbin in multiple leagues because he was another guy I wrote a sleeper post on last year, but I’m still kicking myself I didn’t draft him in Tout Wars — Patkick? Yeah, that’ll work. — The night before one ‘pert was talking about how I should avoid Corbin and made a compelling case. Shows you have to trust your gut, even if you’ve only eaten boba for the last six months. Preseason Rank #49, 2018 Projections: 15-11/3.58/1.29/186 in 204 IP, Final Numbers: 11-7/3.15/1.05/246 in 200 IP
14. Zack Greinke – Yet another guy I absolutely nailed on preseason vs. end of the season. I’d blow on knuckles and wipe them on my shirt, but my hand is in a bucket of ketchup to see if it makes me pee red. Preseason Rank #15, 2018 Projections: 14-9/3.45/1.10/202 in 205 IP, Final Numbers: 15-11/3.21/1.08/199 in 207 2/3 IP
15. Mike Foltynewicz – This is going to seem cheap, but I told everyone to draft Faultynewwitch. Yes, his preseason ranking is nowhere near where he ended up, but that’s the whole point of starters. That is literally the thing no one else seems to get. I’ll draft Folty, Happ, Bauer and Mikolas and people will be like, “I like your hitting, but your pitching sucks.” You will hear this all over fantasy. That’s the #1 reaction to my teams after I draft them. I’m not saying I win every league, I don’t, but I’m not losing because I’m drafting cheap starters vs. the Kershaw’s of the world. Preseason Rank #85, 2018 Projections: 9-11/4.17/1.39/155 in 162 IP, Final Numbers: 13-10/2.85/1.08/202 in 183 IP
16. J.A. Happ – Member when I bet Podcaster Ralph that Happ would be more valuable than Ohtani? HAHAHAHAHA–*little voice in back of head reminds me that Ralph beat me in the RCL* Shut up, little voice! I was enjoying myself! By the way, I told you to avoid Ohtani, and said Mikolas was better value, I wanted Happ over Ohtani, so it’s natural to think I don’t like Ohtani. I do. A lot. I was just concerned he had only thrown 20-something innings in the last two years and had a torn elbow. Turns out those things were bad omens. Go figure. Preseason Rank #70, 2018 Projections: 12-9/3.66/1.30/161 in 187 IP, Final Numbers: 17-6/3.65/1.13/193 in 177 2/3 IP
17. Charlie Morton – You know what Morton makes me think? If Jake Arrieta were traded to the Astros, he’d be a Cy Young winner again. Pitchers should be paying the Astros to play for them for one year, then they can go on and have huge contracts elsewhere and suck. Preseason Rank #32, 2018 Projections: 12-8/3.54/1.20/168 in 154 IP, Final Numbers: 15-3/3.13/1.16/201 in 167 IP
18. Mike Clevinger – I liked him too, yes, but I wanted to mention one other thing in general about starters. I grabbed Clevinger in one league off waivers after he had, what I think was two bad starts. You can grab top 20 starters off waivers! Don’t believe me, look at my pickup of Freeland too in two leagues. One league was a 15-team mixed league. Preseason Rank #59, 2018 Projections: 10-7/4.08/1.31/159 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 13-8/3.02/1.16/207 in 200 IP
19. Kyle Freeland – I’d say Freeland was the most out of left field. I racked my brain to try to think of other Rockies starters who had great years to see where Freeland ranked vs. them and I came up with one name: Ubaldo. Freeland had a better ERA than Ubaldo’s best year (2.85 vs. 2.88), but Ubaldo had a better K/9 and wins (19 vs. 17) so Ubaldo wins by, uh, hair. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 17-7/2.85/1.25/173 in 202 1/3 IP
20. David Price – Since I’ve been talking about how I liked so many of these guys, it’s only fair for me to say I had no interest in Price this past preseason. I thought things were unraveling for him, but now looking back, I don’t see why I was worried, he wasn’t bad in 2017, just injured. Guess now I have hindsight, and, in the preseason, I just had my head up my hind. Preseason Rank #40, 2018 Projections: 10-3/3.72/1.18/124 in 120 IP, Final Numbers: 16-7/3.58/1.14/177 in 176 IP
