On our Steamer Fantasy Baseball Rankings, which have been updated to a 60-game season, we have 1,310 players ranked. 645 of them gained value. Some, for unstints, gained $0.1 of value like Juan Soto. Another hundred had zero value change like Christian Yelich. Another 600+ lost value. These are their stories. *Law & Order sound effect chung-chung* This post will feature the top 20 players who lost the most value from doing nothing but bingeing Netflix for the last three months. Who knew Love Is Blind could hurt one’s fantasy value? “I’m gonna go with George, he’s so funny.” “Okay, Jenn, here’s George…He’s a sign spinner for State Farm!” Anyway, here’s the top 20 biggest negative value changes for fantasy baseball pre vs. post-shutdown:
1. Kwang-Hyun Kim – $4.90 loss of value. Clarifications are good and fun. One clarification, $4.90 does not mean Kwang-Hyun Kim has $4.90 in value now. He’s worth $-5.70 now, which is about 397th overall on Steamer auction ranks, completely terrible, and about where I have him in my top 500. As alluded to in my top 20 biggest value gainers (Gloria Gainers has to be #1, no?), middle relievers’ fantasy value is being decimated in a 60-game season. Closers are everything; top three starters on a team are everything; end of the rotation and middle relievers? Garbage left in a glove compartment of a car parked on the sun. Hot and funky!
2. Alec Bohm – $4.60. Actually still think it’s a decent gamble to grab Alec Bohm for right now, but it’s also fair that Steamer has slashed his slash line to pieces like a Ginzu knife in the hands of a person jacked up on Red Bull and coke. Bohm’s fantasy value is iffy at best for 2020. Here’s my Alec Bohm sleeper from the shutdown.
3. Ross Stripling – $3.90. Okay, after this one I’m going to start skipping some middle relievers-slash-long men. If you want to chase Wins, a guy who could be out there for the 4th and 5th inning, could have value, but more options (Dodgers have those) is not necessarily better if a guy has no set role.
4. Sandy Alcantara – $3.80. Starters who takes dumps on occasion without eating prunes are gonna be deadly this year. If Alcantara, or any shizz starter, goes out and throws a 2 IP, 7 ER game, your team might not recover from that for two weeks and in an eight-week season it’s not, how do I say, good.
5. Spencer Turnbull – $3.70. Same dealie as Sandy A.
6. Luis Arraez – $3.70. On one hand, only a few players could hit .400 in a 60-game season. On the other hand, compilers are terrible in 60-game season. On a third hand that is actually a mitten on a mop handle, I never really liked Arraez.
7. Whit Merrifield – $3.40. Some prolly feel like he could steal a quick 15+ bags in 60 games and have value, and, if you think that, I wouldn’t discount him at all, but if he’s more like a 9-steal guy, then he’s a compiler and there will be no room for compilers this year.
8. Marcus Stroman – $3.10. In fairness to Stroman, my sanity and just, ya know, life, I still like Stroman. Steamer is down on him, in a non-sexual way, because he’s a good ratio guy and that usually has more value over 162 games.
9. Trevor Bauer – $3.00. This one was weird to me, so I asked Rudy, and found out some interesting info which I will share after this awkward expositional sentence. Bauer, and all NL pitchers, lost value, because of the NL DH. I do think Bauer still has some value in 60 games, i.e., I would roster him, and on Steamer auction values he’s still up at 109th overall.
10. Adam Eaton – $3.00. The ultimate compiler. He’s such a crap compiler I don’t even like rostering him in 162-game seasons. In a 60-game season, Adam’s Eaton up roster room! Yes! Give me a high-five! No? Okay.
11. Kyle Hendricks – $3.00. I skipped mentioning a lot of NL SPs, who lost value, for reasons explained in Bauer’s blurb. I did want to mention Hendricks specifically though, because he’s the type of guy who I think gets hurt with 60 games since he’s so dependent on a lot of IP with good ratios. A pitching version of a compiler like Adam Eaton. I will call him Eaton Innings.
12. Mitch Haniger – $3.00. Anyone, and I can’t stress this enough after this brief pause, who is already injured is not good in a 60-game season. Someone misses 15 games is going to miss a quarter of the season. Yes, I did the math.
13. Elvis Andrus – $2.90. Can put him in the Merrifield bin. They’re very similar in 60 games. Call them Elvis Merrifield. Whit Andrus? Elvit Merridrus? I’m gonna stop now.
14. Shohei Ohtani – $2.90. *rubs hands together* I love bagging on Ohtani and anyone that loves him, the Ohstanis! Line ’em up and I will dunk on ’em! All 5-foot and six-and-three-quarters inch of me! (I am wearing Tom Cruise high heels too, but irrelevant.) Ohtani throwing once a week for three to four innings and getting routed, then turns around and goes 1-for-4 with a run. Woohoo! Eat it you, dogs! Sorry, I’m losing my shizz. Ohtani is now 114th on Steamer auction ranks, and about the same for me. I just never saw him as a top 100 player.
15. Leury Garcia – $2.70. LG got dinged like my LG flip phone since Nick Madrigal appears to have the lead for the job. Sorry, LG. My phone, I don’t know Leury.
16. Aaron Nola – $2.50. Samesies as Bauer and many others. For those wondering, Nola fell from around an 85th overall pick to 115th overall on Steamer auction ranks.
17. David Fletcher – $2.40. In the discount bin for those shopping for cheap Elvit Merridrusses. (If you know what I’m talking about, you’re reading the whole post, so props to you.)
18. Jacob deGrom – $2.40. Samesies as Nola, et al. Crazy one here is deGrom fell from a top 10 pick, according to Steamer projections, to 18th overall, and became the third pitcher off the board, behind Cole and Verlander.
19. Lorenzo Cain – $2.30. Bit of a bummer to see Cain…Sugar! on this list because I was thinking I might actually get a little taste of *rubs gums* Cain now with the DH and shortened season. My guess is he’s just let another compiler in the eyes of Steamer.
20. Kevin Newman – $2.20. And, yet, another compiler. Lots of those in this post. Shows you that in a short season you need to go hard e’eryday. Don’t e’en ha’e time for the letter V, and it will bring ‘ictory.
I was offered a trade deal in a keeper league
Paul Goldschmidt StL – 1B FOR Kyle Tucker Hou – LF,RF
what do you think
Tucker side
How would you rank Tucker, Buxton and Willie Calhoun in a keeper?
Spot on – moving Bauer down a bit but still on the radar
Yup
Trade For Bregman and give up Bieber? How should I go about the short season. I have an innings cap of 600 so does that make quality pitching more valuable. First time doing roto?
I’d want Bregman, but depends on the rest of your pitching…You need to max IP to an extent as best you can
ROSSCUP down! (possibly for the last time)
Damn, will miss him
not if you were in a league deep enough to own him. the story of toles gets added info (i wondered why the hell he became a hobo, i figured it was highly likely drug based (could still be of course on that end) when i read about him sleeping behind some airport building just lately.
https://www.rotoworld.com/baseball/mlb/player/20817/andrew-toles
He has schizophrenia, hopefully he’ll be okay
yeah oddest part is he dealt ok with whatever he has/had, but it seemed to kick in or get a lot worse right before LAD dumped him. or at least the interesting part to mind doctors. which should be everybody at least relatively on toles interest.
Stress can exacerbate maybe? I don’t know
yeah i was thinking if anybody wanted to write a book about toles (or just how hard it is to try to make MLB, then stay in it, the pressure in doing that etc) whatever started going on right before he was kicked off LAD is probably interesting stuff. was he fine then had some sort of breakdown, which jump started schizo or made his manic/depressive stuff go up to 11? who knows so far. stress and/or drugs and/or just those things starting up in his mind maybe.
Been a long time, hope all is well Grey!
Drafted this back in March, any changes you would make to this roster in lieu of the 60 game season?
A) I feel like maybe adding McKay , Pearson, Kopech, Garrett Richards over one of my lower tier starters?
B) Add Aaron Hicks over any one I have? (OPS league)
C- Will Smith
1B- Matt Olson
2B- Ketel Marte
SS- Francisco Lindor
IF- Trey Turner
3B- Yoan Moncada
LF- Eloy Jimenez
CF- George Springer
RF- Jorge Soler
OF- Kyle Schwarber
UTIL- Nelson Cruz
UTIL- Ryan Braun
BN- Ryan McMahon
BN-Nomar Mazara
BN- Carson Kelly
P- Ryan Yarborough
P- Diego Castillo
P- Dustin May
P- Emilio Pagan
SP- Yu Darvish
SP- Jose Berrios
SP- Lance Lynn
SP- David Price
RP- Sean Doolittle
RP- Mark Melancon
RP- Daniel Hudson
RP- Blake Treinen
BN- Kenta Maeda
BN- Pablo Lopez
BN- Kyle Gibson
BN- Zach Eflin
BN- Corey Knebel
Good to see you! What’s this, 12 team?
A. Pearson, Kopech, Richards — I’d lose Kelly, prolly…Eflin and Treinen
B. Over Kelly for sure, otherwise hold
Thanks!!! Its a 10 teamer
Meh, same kinda…Definitely lose Kelly
Cool, thanks Grey!
No problem
Sexiest Best Ball Team I’ve Started so far.
Yelich
Flaherty
Bogarts
Suarez
Goldy
Garver
Paddack
Yea that’s pretty hawt
Also Grey you on the clock sir!
Oh thanks was eating lunch
Btw, they haven’t figured out how to give me an actual chance to draft when on PST…I set my queue this morning, but I shouldn’t be missing out picks bc I’m asleep
Not loving mine but also not sure what to love so maybe it’s awesome
Sweet Knoche!
Interesting news out of Cubs camp today – their pitching coach said he had the Covid earlier in the spring. Did not test negative until 30 days later. I bring this up b/c if an MLB player gets it and has the same reaction he might be looking at missing half the shortened season.
https://www.rotoworld.com/baseball/mlb/player/17443/david-ross
Yikes
What makes it worse is MLB GM’s were quoted yesterday as saying they will not be allowed to give the names of any player who has tested positive for Covid due to HIPPA rules. So a player might be DL’d for an indefinite amount of time without us knowing the why behind his missing games.
I saw, they already said Charlie Blackmon (which I wrote about the other day)….Think it’s irrelevant for fantasy tho…If a guy is on the IL, he’s out two weeks and in a 8 week season, just drop him
except they already have given out names, the catch likely is whether the player willingly gives out the info or not. as long as they DL whoever has it (so we KNOW that player isn’t playing, and it’s not just some “WAS with rendon “he’ll be ok in a few days but we’ll sit him out for 8-11 till we decide what we’re doing”) we’ll be ok. blackmon for sure was recently “given out” by somebody.
Don’t think Blackmon gave out his name, but I read it so
david ross isn’t the pitching coach, he’s the head coach.
he’s also the youngest person i’ve yet to hear of/read about that had actual symptoms for nearly that long. i’ve heard of some deaths (people that knew people that knew people) but those were old out of shape people with medical conditions (the exact kind that die fairly often from even regular flus). 38 is exactly my age (same as ross). i’m fairly certain i’ve had this with no symptoms (likely back in late feb or early march).
You get tested?
Yeah, just got name wrong…Pitching coach did need 30 days to recover from covid tho
rotoworld i forgot tends to pick one name (manager or sometimes player) for updates on non known named entities such as the name of the pitching coach there. not tested. will have to for some job likely in not long though. you hear of anybody that isn’t old and already having issues (including being in horrible shape in that one) having longish issues (a month easily counts) or dying from it?
I haven’t knock on wood
i didn’t mean like a relative or friend so much, as anybody at all (even read of any). it seemed that’s what this was was back when reading about it in feb, almost everybody will end up being asymptomatic carriers and don’t even know they had it. same as i am every “flu season” (honestly i could’ve gone my entire life easily not knowing there even was such a thing). it’ll kill the very old and/or already sick. i am kinda surprised though that i’ve yet to hear of one person even as young as the pitching coach (actually i don’t know how old that guy is, he’s likely older than me and ross (38)) having longish issues though.
– like say zeke elliot (one of NFL’s best RB’s) he got tested simply from somebody he hangs out with having gotten it, but had no symptoms himself (at that time i read about it, could’ve changed later). a friend of mine i play poker with sat himself out of the game for 5 days a few weeks ago while waiting on a test, which was negative. he got tested since his 22 year old cousin got it (but never had any issues at all).
ok, yeah the pitching coach is 38, so def youngest person i’ve heard of have actual issues that went on that long (or even close, i had heard about like a week of symptoms for very young (athletes mostly)
Yeah, I think we’re headed for herd immunity — I haven’t heard of anyone under the age of 30, but I also haven’t been looking for that info, tbh
it always pisses me off whenever you read something like
” county X had Y deaths from corona today” but they won’t even say useful to know stuff like was any of those young non-sick people?
i get HIPPA, i’m not wanting to know names, but i’m sure EVERYBODY would find it interesting to learn about basic death rates for everybody that’s not already old and/or sick. of course you might not sell so much fear that way.
– all those folks thinking wearing a mask will keep them from not getting this are hilarious, or as if staying in their houses for a month would suddenly make their bodies never have to deal with this thing. it’s IN THE HUMANS guys, you’re gonna get it sooner or later (unless if you just stayed away from all human contact till you died of something else); good news is nearly everybody will never show symptoms (unless say this thing morfs into something very nasty in it’s stage 3,4,5 …. but no actual evidence showing that’ll happen either) and be fine. but even if it does morf into something far worse later, it would seem likely that your body having dealt with an earlier version would be a good thing to have, would learn to deal with it (same way healthy people usually do with flus)
I hear ya…I want me some antibody test…Tell me I’m immune, World!
oh i’d bet money i have those by now. weirdly, some hospitals don’t even do that test, seemed odd when i heard that. almost made up, but i heard it from a highish level hospital doctor, so i guess it’s real.
Yeah, no idea — is weird that isn’t a HIPPA violation but covid is
12 team 5×5 H2H with 6 keepers (no limit)
Which WW youngster would you add as the highest value, either for a shortened-season breakout, or as a potential keeper? I could potentially add multiple, because I have an empty roster spot and an empty N/A spot at the moment.
Sam Hilliard
Austin Riley
Teoscar Hendandez
Austin Hays
Mackenzie Gore
Dylan Carlson
Nick Madrigal
Renato Nunez
Nate Pearson
Jarred Kelenic
Alex Kiriloff
Alec Bohm
Evan White
Julio Rodriguez
Forrest Whitley
Casey Mize
Madrigal, Gore
Madrigal over Riley? Gore over Pearson?
Yes and it’s close…I like both a lot
nice foursome to consider
Yup
What do you mean by “compiler”?
a guy who racks up counting stats, soley from lineup slot or guaranteed playing time, particularly RBI/runs/AVG. on AVG due to shorter season luck is going to win big time, so guys like arraez’s edge (AVG floor is high) will be worth less. guys getting HR or steals though will still have value. for pitchers this means wins/innings. with pitchers going less innings all of the SP will be getting less % wins for sure (even more so QS). obv the NL SP got worse since NL DH showed up
yes, what goodfold said
I’m in a QS league. Would you concern yourself with QS being that SP will not be stretched for the first 2-3 starts leaving only about 7-8 opportunities for QS and focus on K and ratio guys instead?
With relievers do we target only the top Tier closers who would be relied on by clubs in a short season? And if we can’t get them, just look for those middle relief/set-up guys clubs will go to that have high K and low ratios instead of lower tier closers? I’m in a S+H league.
Finally, if Inhave Bellinger at 1B and Olson on bench would you trade him for Hader or Osuna?
Yeah, ignore QS
We have middle relievers ranked and projected https://razzball.com/2020-fantasy-baseball-rankings/
No
Outside of Hader, who are the relievers you would target that are known to be used to get more than 3 outs? Diego Castillo?
Long men or closers?
Long men
Top long men RP projected: https://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-espnmlb12/
Castillo, Green, Smith, Barnes, Lugo
Will Smith?
Also, I have Workman as one of my RP. Would you drop him for Castillo or Pressly for S+H? Workman came out of nowhere last year. Castillo seems more stable and he will probably be used a lot by TB.
Yes, that’s who I listed third, you can see the link
It is a good day to be Bobby Bonilla!
Bobby B gettin’ that $
Can you imagine starting Mike Fiers at Coors this year? Amazingly, I have him on both my remaining DC’s (including my November 2019 Razz early DC), and had him on none of my deleted teams. Im not sure Ill have the nerve to start him aside from at home vs SFG. Can you imagine a Mike Fiers implosion or two in a 60 gamer? 8ER, 10 H in 1 IP?
The only thing to fear is Fiers himself…
Haha, just one 8 ER, 1 IP disaster might just be the end of your team this year
Interesting stuff!
Wondering your thoughts here. Keeper league (12 team mixed, H2H) drafted way back in March. Went pretty offense heavy just the way everything unfolded. Need I trade hitting for pitching before the season starts or hold and look for waiver options to develop?
C Narvaez
1B Alonso
2B Albies
SS Story
3B Donaldson
INF Olson
OF Acuna
OF Y. Alvarez
OF Buxton
OF Braun
Util N. Cruz
Bench: Howie Kendrick, D. Carlson
SP Morton
SP Darvish
SP Boyd
SP Weaver
SP C. Martinez
SP A. Wood
SP R. Hill
SP Houser
SP Canning
RP Kimbrel
RP Neris
RP Pressly
NA Gore
I like this team a lot — I think I’d look at replacing Wood and maybe Boyd, but otherwise solid…I’d definitely lose Wood, if no one else — he’s bleh in 60 games
Thanks for the input! I always load up on bats and then stress about my pitching. But I’m pretty good at finding arms on the wire. Not a ton of time to do it this year though!
Yeah, I hear ya
Grey!!!
Great report!
a. These value-losers are scary! I don’t have any from your report, thank God. But was wondering out loud. If the compiler compiles himself a pro-rated 60 games like a normal 162-game season and he plays a full 60 game-season, then he should be positive value right? Like if Whit was due to steal 9 SB in a 60-game season and steals 9 then he’s good right (if all his other stats turn out). It’s just that you’re betting he doesn’t play all 60 games or needs 162 to compile his true worth in a normal year like last year, right?
b. Signed up Riley yesterday, dropping Shogo! That’s the second time I dropped Shogo in the pre-season. It was between him and Yaz Jr Jr and I dropped Shogo. Hopefully it won’t come back to bite me, Shogo is due to bat lead off for the Reds.
c. MLB quote of the day for July 1, 2003
‘I don’t think about delivery. I don’t think about mechanics. I just think about throwing hard.’
Éric Serge Gagné, aka ‘Game Over’. One of the most successful closers, he set a record for converting 84 consecutive save chances. From 2002 to 2004, he was the best closer in MLB. My boy from Mascouche, Quebec he played baseball and…ice hockey of course. All Canadians play ice hockey, even me for 2 years. Oh, yeah and happy Canada Day to all who celebrate and all who would like to celebrate in Canada.
Cheers,
Ante
I watched this movie Tusk the other day, and a great quote from a Canadian to an American was “you got your Canado’s and your Canadon’ts. Number one, don’t go tellin’ a Canadian you don’t follow hockey.”
CramIt!!!
Awesome quote. There are some who don’t follow, it’s usually migrants / immigrants / refugees from the Indian subcontinent or Africa where the concept of ice is still a concept in their home countries. Like the profile pic.
Cheers,
Ante
HAHA
Nice quote, might steal, Cram
Go for it! It ain’t mine.
Haha
Thanks!
A. Everything is compressed tho, right? For instance, there’s Whit who can steal 9, but Jose Peraza can steal 9…Before, Whit had a ton of other value over Peraza like 30+ runs, 20+ RBIs, .300 across 550 ABs, but now he’s got, what? 7-10+ runs, 5+ RBIs and .300 over 200 ABs? Meh
B. That works!
C. Haha, you have some theme going this week for the quotes, yesterday Albert Belle, today Gagne, who’s tomorrow Brady Anderson?
Grey!!!
a. The theme this week started out with 2 bad boys – Mitchell and Belle. Then I saw the calendar change to July 1st our independence day and I said gotta find at least 1 good Canadian MLB player. Already did Larry Walker so he doesn’t count. Very few honestly good Canadian players. ‘Member Rob Ducey? Yeah, not good but Toronto fans were all over him because he was from Toronto. He had speed going for him but he did manage to play for a while.
b. Tomorrow could be Brady Anderson, thanks for the tip.
c. Thanks on the compression theory and Whit. And I know you’re just taking data and presenting it and then putting in your intelligent analysis rather than making stuff up so it all makes sense. Imagine if you just made sh*t up, I would still believe you.
d. On Independence Day, don’t get me started. We claim July 1, 1867 is our independence day. Well it’s not, it’s July 1, 1967!! (so we’re almost at the status of an African colony!!). Even then, the queen still appears on all our dollar bills and coins, she appoints someone (Our Governor General) who starts and ends our parliamentary sessions and that person appoints someone (Lieutenant Governor) who stops and starts our provincial parliamentary sessions. So, yeah, really independent! We don’t even have our own currency!
Cheers,
Ante
A. Votto!
B. Haha
C. Ha, thanks!
D. Wait, who doesn’t have their own currency?
Grey!!!
You know everything about everything, man! Votto is from my home town to boot! What an anti-nerd am I!
Ga, we have our own currency. It’s called the Canadian dollar. But look at a dollar up close and you’ll see what I mean. Check on wikipedia!
Cheers,
Ante
I can’t look at dollars up close, I’ll catch germs, you trying to take me out with a plot?
Not that crazy when you consider that he doesn’t get to pitch to pitchers who are not good at hitting baseballs…
Ha, true