What’s good in the Razzhood?
I’ve got another simple one for you this week. Wanted to piggyback off last week’s piece about post-lockout moves/injuries and take you through the biggest ADP gainers and losers since that ding dang lockout done got lifted. I’m using NFBC ADP data cuz they make it real nice and easy to use custom date ranges.
And I want to give a MASSIVE shoutout to our very own Everywhereblair for helping me with Google Sheet formulas to make this even easier for me. Much love, my guy. Much love.
To qualify as an ADPimp, I somewhat (read “completely”) arbitrarily chose RPs whose ADP improved by 50 spots or more. Sounded like a nice round number to work with.
ADPimp #1: Alex Colome (up 179.9 spots)
Color me…not shocked at all. This dude went from almost guaranteed fantasy irrelevancy to almost guaranteed potential relevancy, and with the way closers are used these days, any and every one you can get your hands on is worth a look. Alex Colome joined the Rockies and thus is already the favorite to be the primary closer back there. Now, of course, he’s still a Rockie pitching at Coors…we all know how Daniel Bard shit the bed and how Carlos Estevez just happened to be the next guy in line. With bad ratios still came saves, though, and my thought is Colome will likely fit that bill. Do you want him as your RP1? I sure as shit hope not. But will he get saves? Probably. Don’t quote me on this, but I’m pretty sure there was a stretch last year where he pitched four straight days and recorded a save in each and every one…okay, I looked it up, and he did indeed pitch Sep. 4/5/6/7, but only recorded a save in those last three days.
ADPimp #2: Robert Suarez (up 105.73 spots)
This one’s not really a surprise either. Robert Suarez has been a dark horse candidate for saves since signing with the Padres, and I’ve written a decent bit about him already this preseason. I like him cuz he’s still cheap and I have multiple shares already, but it’s far from a sure thing that he even sees a single save chance. Gotta think he does, right? But can’t know for certain. Padres haven’t added anyone else in recent weeks so it seems the fantasy consensus has grown on him and he remains a strong bet for late saves.
ADPimp #3: Mychal Givens (up 78.19 spots)
Mychal Givens joined the Cubs as a potential late-inning guy. Had some success with the Reds last year and now the Cubs want a piece of that action. It could be a closer-by-committee type deal or it could be Rowan Wick remains the main man to start. Who’s to say? Givens is clearly now seen by the NFBC folks as a speculative source of saves, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all.
ADPimp #4: David Robertson (up 67.91 spots)
Once upon a time, David Robertson was a pretty damn good reliever. Really, really damn good, in fact. Yeah, he’s like 50 years old (will be 37 very soon), but last year he still had a 32 K% to go along with a not-too-bad 8 BB%. He has never finished a season below 30 CSW% or a K/9 below 10 (except in 2019, when he only managed 6.2 IP). The WHIP probably won’t be elite anymore, but the Ks absolutely could be there. Would maybe be [more than a little] surprised to see him stay healthy since he’s only pitched a combined 18.2 IP since 2019, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a healthy D-Rob pull ahead of the other names in this Cubs pen. I attribute Givens’s current ADP growth advantage to recency bias and risk-factor associated with D-Rob’s health, but in a vacuum I’m taking D-Rob every time.
ADPimp #5: Art Warren (up 57.33 spots)
With news that Lucas Sims won’t be ready for the start of the season, Art Warren’s ADP has predictably improved. Common thought seems to be he’ll jump into the closer role until Sims is ready. I support this notion and have since drafted Warren because of it. His strikeout potential is upper-echelon elite. *Small sample size alert* We got 21 IP from him last year and he gave us these delicious rates: 4.71 H/9, 3.43 BB/9, 14.57 K/9, and 0.43 HR/9. Me likey very muchy.
Conversely, in order to qualify as an ADPunk, one’s ADP had to drop by 50 spots or more. Made sense to me!
ADPunk #1: Will Smith (down 109.9 spots)
Oh what a shocker this is. Kenley Jansen signed with the Braves, so he’s the immediate closer. It’s not up for debate. Don’t try to trick yourself into “smart” value with Smith. If you’re not in a SVHD league, ignore him entirely.
ADPunk #2: Alex Reyes (down 245.74 spots)
I almost left him off here since he was kinda supposed to be a starter this year. Now his shoulder is super messed up and he’s a moot point anyway. Even if healthy, though, I wouldn’t completely and fully write him out of the closer scenario for St. Louis since Oli Marmol has said they’ll be creative with how they use pitchers (and even as bad as he was to finish 2021, he was sooooo goooood there for a long time as closer). But you can straight up delete him from your brain for now.
ADPunk #3: Craig Kimbrel (down 56.79 spots)
Still seems pretty likely that Craig Kimbrel ultimately closes for another team in 2022. The real question to me is when that will happen. Sooner? Later? He’s slipped down the draft board since he’s still a White Sock, but he’s still not exactly cheap for a guy who will almost certainly see no saves in his current situation. On the other hand, if he does end up moving somewhere, he could be a total league-winner type bargain. Draft at your own risk.
ADPunk #4: Lucas Sims (down 84.83 spots)
Yeah, had to happen I guess, but I am a tad surprised to see such a steep drop when reports seem to indicate he’s not dealing with an injury. He’s just not ready to go 100% yet. Now, could this be the Reds making light of a more serious situation? Could very well be. Sims has always dealt with injuries and last season was no different. And the fact it was elbow stuff last year doubly sucks. Despite all that, the bottom line for me is that upside for top-end fantasy production remains. Now that he’s even cheaper than he was just a few weeks ago, I say pounce all over this dude.
ADPunk #5: Ian Kennedy (down 162.87 spots)
Wooooof. So many folks drafted Ian Kennedy ready for like, what, 30 SV even though he was a free agent? And then the freakin’ damn Diamondbacks sign him, and now some guy named Mark Melancon is gonna block all his potential closing chances. The silver lining here is that Melancon is no guarantee to hold onto his job, and so Kennedy would most likely be the next in line if the situation were to present itself. But, yeah, don’t draft him.
I do some fantasy baseball as well as some fantasy hockey here at Razzball. Find me on Twitter: @jkj0787. DMs are always open for questions, comments, concerns, complaints, etc. Odds are good I’m drinking black coffee, dark beer, or some form of bourbon at any given time.