Points Leagues – We’ve Only Just Begun

Time to shift gears.  Draft season is over.  Now it’s time to manage your squad to a fantasy Championship. The first rule: don’t ever be content with your position.  No matter if you’re currently in 1^st, 8^th, or 12^th place, there’s always work to be done.  Never stop trying to make your team better.  That’s our mission now and I’m here to help!

So, how are we going to do that?

“If you don’t know where you came from, you don’t know where you’re going.”

For each week (Sunday-Saturday), we’ll take a look at the weekly scoring leaders, both hitters and pitchers, and track trends.  We know certain players will rise to the top in any format but in a Points league format, we’ll also want to find other players who can be counted on to generate points.  Tracking these every week should help.

We’ll also track who is overachieving and those who are underperforming.  If you’re in leagues that allow trades, that may translate to sell-high or buy-low candidates.  If you’re in leagues that don’t, that means we’re looking for waiver wire gems.

We may even put some players under the microscope and use analytics to determine if I’m buying, holding or selling.  There’ll be other segments too, all to help you manage your teams to Championships!  Should be a lot of fun.

Don’t forget, we’ll be using RazzSlam scoring for these analyses.  If your scoring format is different, and I suspect that’s the case for many of you, be sure to run your own numbers.

So, let’s get started.

To keep a level playing field, this first week’s analysis will cover only the first three days of the season (Thursday-Saturday).  Hey, I write this on Sunday…and I already covered the Tokyo Series last week (read that HERE).

Weekly Scoring Leaders – HITTERS

• Unlike many of his previous seasons, Eugenio Suarez is bursting out the gate with a scorching bat and leads our first top 20 installment. He’s a streaky hitter so get him while he’s hot.
• Wilyer Abreu leads the youth movement this week with a pair of HRs and 5 steaks in only 9 ABs. Both HRs came against RHP, carrying forward from the .825 OPS against RHP last season.  He also posted a 94^th percentile Hard Hit rate and 86^th percentile Barrel rate.  Can we expect more of the same?  Seems so.
• Regardless of what draft format you were in, Cedric Mullins is a name that stared at you during the middle rounds. Am I right?  He provided a later speed in Roto leagues but it’s certainly nice to see him have Points league value as well.  He has a 3-year HR:SB average of 16:28 but those number may be in jeopardy if he can stay healthy.  I predict he’ll be in a buy-low segment here when he has his first slump.
• Otto Lopez is another youngster that stands out on the top 20 hitter list above. It may take a month for the Marlins to match the output of the Yankees did this weekend, but Otto may just have a place on our fantasy rosters.
• Through 2 games, Cody Bellinger is 4-7 and a HR. As I’m writing this on Sunday afternoon, he pulls another potential HR foul.  It’s safe to say Bellinger is made for Yankee Stadium, and it shows right away.  He’s stinging the ball right now with a 93.2 mph average EV (usually 88-89 mph) and 37.5% Hard Hit % (usually 28-30%).

Weekly Scoring Leaders – STARTING PITCHERS 

• Encouraging! That’s the word to describe MacKenzie Gore’s first outing versus the Philies.  Logging 13 Ks and 0 ERs over 6 IP is hopefully a sign to come.  Wins may be hard to come by but as you can see here, the points are there regardless.
• Sean Burke is probably available on waiver wires everywhere, except the deepest of leagues. Granted, he posted this line (6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER) against the Angels but put him on your radar if you’re dealing with SP injuries already.  WHY?  Well, he did post a 1.42 ERA and 22 Ks across 3 starts late last season so there is some encouragement here.
• What’s most interesting to me here is who’s not listed in the top 20: top fantasy draft picks Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal.  Remember someone suggesting you not spend early picks on SPs?  To be fair, I expect both to pop up on this weekly lists soon (and consistently), but mentioning their conspicuous absence in the initial top 20 SP list does provide for a draft lesson…

Weekly Scoring Leaders – RELIEF PITCHERS

• Note the points achieved by RPs as compared to SPs (and hitters for that matter). Only Robert Suarez would have cracked the top 20 overall pitchers.  That said though, RPs have value in your Points league lineups too.  I mean, would you rather log Seth Halvorsen’s 12.3 points or Max Fried’s 3.6 points this week?
• I won’t spend too much time today breaking down RPs other than to note it’s not just about SVs. As you’ll note above, 7 of the top 20 RPs scored their points without netting a SV.     

Youth Movement

• Kameron Misner burst onto the scene Friday with a pinch-hit walk-off HR to beat the Rockies. He followed it up with a pair of hits on Saturday and now sits at 17 points in the young season.  Misner has an interesting minor league profile, totaling 38 HRs and 51 SBs over the past two seasons at AAA Durham.  He scored a cup of coffee late last season and was completely underwhelming, amassing a single hit in 15 ABs across 8 games.  He stands to garner significant playing time with Josh Lowe on the IL for the next 4-6 weeks.
• The youngest player in the top 50 is the Red Sox protégé, Kristian Campbell. Not a bad opening weekend for Mr. Campbell:  5-10 and his first big league HR.  Now there’s talk of the Sox signing him to a long-term contract extension.  The Sky’s the limit, kid!
• Jack Leiter had a nice first outing for the Rangers, allowing one ER on 5 Hs and 4 Ks over 5 IP. The calculator says that’s 17 points and just outside the top 20 SPs.  His next start lines up in Cincy, so we’ll revisit next week to see how he fares.
• Other youngsters I’m watching:
  • Kyle Manzardo: He’s only a DH but 24 fantasy points in the first two games (another HR on Sunday) is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Austin Wells: We laughed when we saw his name at the top of the Yankee lineup. Who’s laughing now?
  • Dillon Dingler: The DET C of the future already has a 3B and HR…and is halfway to his 2024 Barrels.
  • Ryan Pepiot: Lands the Opening Day gig due to injury and doesn’t disappoint (6 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks).
  • Hunter Greene: High fantasy draft expectations weren’t returned right away but it wasn’t a bad outing either (5 IP, 2 ER, 8 Ks).
  • Jonathan Cannon: pitched well vs Angels (13 fantasy points) and will face Detroit next weekend.

Veterans Day

• Nolan Arenado appears to be making some teams regret trading for him during the offseason, coming in 30^th in fantasy points scored this week. He notched 4 hits, including a 2B and HR, resulting in a 1.556 OPS.  Yes, I know it’s still very early and his early season Hard Hit % is nothing to get excited about, but if this keeps up, we may see him in a new uniform sooner than later.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa gets some love this week coming in at 20 fantasy points scored. What catches my eye here the most are the 3 SBs.  In fact, only teammate Oneil Cruz has more SBs so far.  The Pirates are going to be a fun team to watch and now have some fantasy relevant players.
• Although he’s only 30, Andrew Benintendi feels like an older veteran at this point. He was disregarded in virtually all but the deepest of fantasy drafts too.  Maybe he took it personally, coming in with 16 fantasy points scored.
• Luis Severino fared well in his A’s debut (6 IP, 0 ER, 6 Ks) and finishes just outside the top 20. He gets the Cubbies next time out so keep him in your lineups.
• Yusei Kikuchi wasn’t great, but he wasn’t terrible either (6 IP, 3 ER, 5 Ks) – I guess that’s saying something for an Angels pitcher.
• Other vets I’m watching:
  • Wilmer Flores: New uniform and contract seem to fit nicely (2-8, 2 HR)
  • Adolis Garcia: Can we say “bounce back” season?
  • Paul Goldschmidt: Batting at the top of the lineup looks golden.
  • Sonny Gray: Solid in his Opening Day start (5 IP, 2 ER, 6 Ks).
  • Merrill Kelly: With a career 8.00 K/9, your 1 K over 5.1 IP gets you a pass this time.

Under the Microscope

• Rafael Devers is officially on notice. In 3 games, he’s 0-12 with 10 Ks.  That is just gross.  Teammate Triston Casas, your notice is in the mail too.

Final Thoughts

Baseball is back! 

That’s it.  No other words are needed here.

I’ll see you next week, my friends.