We’ve approached the 50-game threshold and we’re starting to see movement in players. No, I’m not talking about trades. I’m referring to the phenomena each season where slow-starters begin to heat up and fast-starters remind us they are not superstars (yet).
So, for this week’s Points-league analysis, we’ll identify those players on the rise and those that are coming back down to earth.
To do that, I’ve split the games-played essentially in half. It’s not a perfect scenario, but it does provide about 100 PAs for regular players. That’s a big enough sample size to identify the trends we’re looking for.
For sake of clarity in this article, I’ll just call the first set of data as “April” and the second as the “May” set. So, don’t call me out below reminding me there were games in March (they’re included) or there’s almost two weeks left in May. On second thought, feel free to dish it out to me. Just know you may get the same in return. All in good fun, of course!
As always, I’ll be using the RazzSlam scoring for the analysis. You know the drill by now.
There’s one other point to make before we get to the analysis. You’ve probably figured it out already. Yes, some players missed significant time already and won’t meet the criteria I set of 50 PAs. That number of PAs results in about 255 players in each data set, so that’ll give us some good numbers. Unfortunately, that will exclude players like Freddie Freeman, Zach Neto, CJ Abrams, Ketel Marte, Connor Norby, Gleyber Torres, etc. We’ll survive.
Ok, now we’re ready to look at the results.
RISERS
| Name | Team | Pts/Gm (April) | Pts/Gm (May) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Pages | LAD | 0.56 | 7.95 | 7.40 |
| Javier Báez | DET | 1.18 | 7.79 | 6.61 |
| Teoscar Hernández | LAD | 4.84 | 10.50 | 5.66 |
| Willson Contreras | STL | 0.67 | 5.96 | 5.29 |
| Riley Greene | DET | 2.29 | 7.00 | 4.71 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | 5.79 | 9.95 | 4.17 |
| Colt Keith | DET | 0.14 | 4.11 | 3.97 |
| J.P. Crawford | SEA | 1.14 | 5.10 | 3.96 |
| Dansby Swanson | CHC | 2.18 | 5.95 | 3.77 |
| Yainer Diaz | HOU | 0.06 | 3.82 | 3.76 |
Teoscar Hernandez came in just over the 50 PA threshold to be included in the analysis. As you can see, it’s a good thing too because he was scorching hot before he went on the IL, averaging over 10 PPG in May. Even considering his nice start in April, that brings him in 3rd with a 5.66 difference. He’s already started a rehab assignment so if you’re an owner like me, help is on the way.
Let’s look specifically at a few others on this list.
- Let’s start with Andy Pages. To say he’s heated up is an understatement. Check out these May:April ratios: HR (6:2), R (16:5), RBI (19:5), SB (5:0). Looking at his analytics, it’s pretty clear why. K% down from 28% to 18%. LD% up from 13% to 27%. His Barrel% is up over 10.5% and he’s pulling the ball almost 50% now, leading to an increase in HardHit% from 27% to 39%. It’s hard to find much to complain about but if I were to complain, it’d be the 3 degree drop in his LA. If he continues to find hard contact and raises that back up a bit, we may have a league-winner here.
- Javier Baez is a unique name to see at the top of this list too. I’m proactively raising the BS Flag on anyone telling me they predicted this. But the numbers don’t lie: Barrel% up to 13% (2.4% in April), HardHit% from 29% to 46%, LA up to almost 13 degrees with a maxEV up 5 mph to just over 108. That helps explain the 6 HRs.
- I’ve expressed my love for Riley Greene in a previous article so I won’t say much here except noting his Barrel% is up 20% and his WAR has increased from -0.048 to 1.261.
- Speaking of love, let me take a minute to dish a little out to his teammate, Colt Keith. Coming in at 4.11 PPG , he won’t win your league but at a position hampered by notable injuries (Jazz Chisholm and Jordan Westburg), you could do worse than a player who more than doubled his SLG and tripled his Barrel% in May.
Just outside the top 10, here are some “honorable mentions” to recognize:
- Trevor Larnach (MIN): 3.72
- Masyn Winn (STL): 3.52
- Mark Vientos (NYM): 3.35
- Rafael Devers (BOS): 3.26
- Jose Ramirez (CLE): 3.05
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): 3.03
- Alec Bohm (PHI): 2.93
- Christian Walker (HOU): 2.71
- Joc Pederson (TEX): 2.62
- Jonathan India (KCR): 2.48
FALLERS
| Name | Team | Pts/Gm (April) | Pts/Gm (May) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Paris | LAA | 5.53 | -0.58 | -6.11 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | 9.24 | 3.48 | -5.76 |
| Brenton Doyle | COL | 5.77 | 0.32 | -5.45 |
| Trevor Story | BOS | 5.95 | 0.57 | -5.38 |
| Cedric Mullins | BAL | 6.40 | 1.33 | -5.07 |
| Brice Turang | MIL | 6.86 | 2.10 | -4.76 |
| Michael Busch | CHC | 5.71 | 1.37 | -4.35 |
| Matt Mervis | MIA | 4.18 | -0.06 | -4.24 |
| Sal Frelick | MIL | 4.77 | 0.65 | -4.12 |
| Tyler Soderstrom | ATH | 6.45 | 2.70 | -3.76 |
Just a few short weeks ago, Kyren Paris was the darling of fantasy baseball. Remember that FAAB run where he was the prize? Ouch! In all honesty, it just looks like a young player adjusting to everyday playing time in the bigs. He’s a third-year player (did you know that?) but has already surpassed games-played and PAs this season over the last two combined. His numbers suggest he’s just elevating the ball (LA of 23.5 degrees and FB% of 56%) too much. Once he adjusts and dials that back down, I expect the real Kyren to stand up.
Let’s look at a few more.
- Brenton Doyle is experiencing a similar period of adjustment. His LA has almost doubled to over 16 degrees, leading to a FB% of 48%. His Pull% is down (from 49% to 37%) yet his Oppo% is up (from 19% to 27%). That’s not a great combination. His wRC+ of -4.18 in May (versus 132.61 in April) confirms it!
- Trevor Story started out on fire with a .318 AVG and 5 taters. Since then, .151 and 1 long ball. The change…soft contact more than anything (up to 24% from 17%). His Barrel% is just 20% of his early season numbers, leading to a BABIP of 0.222 (down from 0.400) and thus a wRC+ of just 5.65 (down from 140.09). Perhaps the Boston summer will warm him up again.
- Cedric Mullins is almost a carbon copy of Story. He’s just not making good contact – soft contact is up to 27% from 16% and Barrel% is almost cut in half. He’s still getting it done on the base paths (3 SBs in each month) so his fantasy value hasn’t completely tanked but I’d prefer the first one please (so do the O’s).
- The last player I’m going to look at here is Tyler Soderstrom. A few short weeks ago, we all thought the A’s gave us the next fantasy superstar. Soderstrom came out of the gates blazing with 9 HRs, supported by a 45% Pull% and almost 13 degree LA. Since then, a single HR, and drop in Pull% to 34% and LA to 9 degrees. He’s still making hard contact, for the most part, but the GB% is up (as expected with a 9 degree LA) and he’s going Oppo more (up 5% to 23%). Yet another example of a young MLBer having to adjust to MLB pitching.
Just outside the top 10, here are some “dishonorable mentions” to call out:
- Spencer Torkelson (DET): – 3.64
- Jose Altuve (HOU): – 3.48
- Marcell Ozuna (ATL): – 3.17
- Pete Alonso (NYM): – 3.02
- Pavin Smith (ARI): – 2.94
- Matt McLain (CIN): – 2.59
- Josh Naylor (ARI): – 2.45
- Jackson Chourio (MIL): – 2.18
- Jorge Soler (LAA): – 2.10
- Ozzie Albies (ATL): – 1.98
Another interesting analysis in the books. What do you think? Helpful? Of course, plugging in your own scoring will shake up the numbers so I encourage you to do so. I’m happy to share where your favorite fantasy players fell in the list. Feel free to drop those names below.
As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends!
