Rudy Gamble

Pitchers That Give Me Pause (aka Teheranalatos Ross)

February 25, 2015 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 76 Comments

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Everyone has their own method of determining their draft board and I imagine mine is rather unique. My early focus is on playing time/injuries so I can run Steamer rates against them and run the results through my Player Rater $ calculation. I then compare this against NFBC ADP and any expert drafts to get a sense for the outliers. As the preseason crawls on, I find myself digging into more and more players and determining whether they are players I want on my team based on their market value.

My tweak this year has been to analyze the outliers (guys my Player Rater is high/low on) earlier in the preseason. Projections are far from perfect and I have no problem drafting a guy above or below my $ value if I feel passionately about his value. These analyses are not terribly thorough – just scanning their FanGraphs pages for peripheral stats and reading Baseball Forecaster and Baseball Prospectus player summaries (the former of which being more helpful than the latter). I also check against Grey’s rankings so I can identify on which players we will inevitably debate.

Below are three pitchers – Julio Teheran, Mat Latos, Tyson Ross – where my Player Rater is way more pessimistic than the other sources I have reviewed. While my reasons vs Steamer’s reasons may differ, it still ends up with the same conclusion: I think these guys are being overvalued and I cannot see how any of three will end up on any of my teams.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Fri 8/8
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | OAK
Mike

2015 Minor League Preview: New York Mets

February 25, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 47 Comments

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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (10) | 2013 (16) | 2012 (24) | 2011 (20) | 2010 (25)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [79-83] NL East
AAA: [81-63] Pacific Coast League – Las Vegas
AA: [83-59] Eastern League – Binghamton
A+: [76-62] Florida State League – St. Lucie
A: [85-51] South Atlantic League – Savannah
A(ss): [42-34] New York-Penn League – Brooklyn

Graduated Prospects
Travis d’Arnaud, C | Jake deGrom, RHP | Jeurys Familia, RHP | Wilmer Flores INF

The Gist
This is a strong farm system that boasts both talent up the middle and arms to bolster a young rotation headlined by Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jacob deGrom. Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud were acquired in the R.A. Dickey trade, and with Syndergaard arriving sometime this summer, Mets fans will finally see the fruits of that trade at Citi Field. Dilson Herrera should also stick in the majors at some point this season. One of 2014’s pleasant surprises was the recently graduated deGrom, who will look to build on a 2014 rookie campaign in which he posted a 2.69 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 140 innings pitched. After a demotion to Triple-A early in the year, Travis d’Arnaud also posted good numbers with 13 homers in 421 plate appearances.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Matt Holliday, 2015 Fantasy Schmohawk

February 25, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Overrated | 303 Comments

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Players are going to play, play, play, play, play, play. The haters are going to hate, hate, hate, hate, hate, hate. And Grey’s going to hate Matt Holliday. Shake it off! I’ve been waiting for years to write this post. Just biding my time, rubbing my fingers together like an animated villain. If you look at me real fast, twirling my mustache, plotting Holliday’s schmohawk post, you might see the human incarnate of Snidely Whiplash. Each year, I’d look at Holliday and see a guy that consistently put up fantasy stats with dashing good looks. A regular Dudley Do-Right. They even both wear red and ride a horse. Holliday’s horse is, of course, his chauffeur, Carlos Lee. Dudley Do-Right is a Canadian Mountie, and Holliday is from Oklahoma, which is a known hatchery for Mounties. Regularly, you hear about Oklahomans being kidnapped into the Mountie army. Like how the North Koreans kidnap the Japanese. (I saw a documentary on this.) The similarities are endless! But, now, Holliday, you’re 35 years old, you can’t move as fast, and you’re mine! Also, out of 35 ‘perts polled (say that fast 117 times!), I had Holliday ranked lower than everyone, so obviously I needed to write this post. It was my duty! (Hehe, I said duty.) So, what makes Matt Holliday overrated for 2015 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
JB Gilpin

2015 Top 100 Starting Pitchers

February 24, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Pitcher Profiles | 162 Comments

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Pitcher Profiles are almost back baby!  Let’s get this shizz goin!

We’ve got another big year of GIFfing, Gamescore+ , breaking down every pitch to a tedium… it’s going to get my motor running about as hard as every Corey Kluber start!

I hope everyone has had a nice winter, and enjoyed an awesome year with us so far over on Hoops.  Good thing it’s an indoor sport!  Northeast getting more snow than Tony Montana’s desk.  But with the allure of the weather warming (it hasn’t yet), we can all get together and talk some starting pitching (it’s deep, convo over).  With depth comes two interesting schools of thought – should you go with aces early because there’s so little distinguishing the mid-tier and breakout guys?  Or wait entirely and build your whole staff late?  Of course there’s 50 Shades of Grey, which is still my usual approach.  Hopefully Grey’s next book will be 51 Shades of Grey Albright.  Shade 1 – mustache play.

If you missed the wrap up at the end of last year, you can check out how my 2014 pre-ranks fared against Grey and ESPN.

Enough foreplay, below are my top 100 SP ranks!  With the great pitching depth, comes great responsibility a lot of guys out of the 100 that are probably in other ranks here and there.  Pitchers 70-130 are so hard to differentiate…  But as always, please shoot your comments below on what ya think, and happy pitching 2015!

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Jay

RCL Update: Chasing History… Again

February 24, 2015 | Our Leagues | 10 Comments

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Fellow RCL’ers, it’s your pre-narrator for the pre-RCL 2015 season, back to bring you into the fold for everything RCL. That’s pre, I guess. And also type RCL and pre as many times as possible. Needs more RCL and pre if you ask me. Anyhow, mark this day in your calender folks. It is a day which will (probably not) live in infamy. It is a day where we will chase history for the good of all mankind. Are we curing cancer? No. Solving world hunger? I just ate a Kit-Kat, so we might have some more work to do on that front. Are we creating a foundation to rescue stray animals? Ef no! We’re doing something much-much more important (not really). Today, I am making it our personal goal to create at least 100 RCL leagues for the 2015 Fantasy Baseball Season. Are we close? Darn straight we are. Right now, we are at 65 RCL leagues, and I know we can do this. Together. As one. HOLD ME.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Head-To-Head Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy, Seriously, Not Clickbait

February 24, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy | 271 Comments

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Potatoes to chips, I’m gonna keep this Head-to-Head fantasy baseball draft strategy so succinct that it could be written on the back of a CVS receipt and still have room for a grocery list for a family of five. Assuming the family of five has shopped in the previous two months. If said family was in Breckenridge for a skication, and are just getting home before Rascal, Tommy and Clarafeen have to go back to school, then their shopping list might be too long to fit. Now if they’re just getting back from Breckenridge and are bringing food with them in coolers that they accumulated over the skication, then there might still be enough room. More or less contingent on accumulated food and their level of hunger. Fangraphs has a formula to figure this out. It converts a CSV table into a CVS receipt. Quite revolutionary. Head-to-Head, or H2H, doesn’t change a lot to our 2015 fantasy baseball rankings. There are 300 billion suns in the Milky Way galaxy. There are 100s of billions of galaxies in the universe. There are at least 256,000 planets exactly like Earth. Yet, there’s only one Mike Trout. (Though Trike Mout on Planet Spoonerism is pretty good too. Not a first rounder though.) H2H doesn’t change that. The strategy for playing in the middle of the season in H2H leagues changes. You aren’t hoping Billy Butler hits 20 homers by October, but whether or not he’ll hit a homer on Sunday or if you should sit him to try and win steals. It’s all about the matchups, y’all! So you want to build a team that can match up well with any other team. (FYI, I’ve gone over this stuff before, but some of you might need a pine tree refresher hung from your rear view.) Anyway, here’s my head-to-head draft strategy:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
paul

Taking the Fun Out of Fantasy Baseball with Algorithms

February 23, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Draft Tool | 56 Comments

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Hello readers of the Razz! It’s been a long winter and I have some strange ideas floating around my mind, so I’d like to start things off with a little guessing game.

If I have your permission, I’d like to presuppose that at one point in your fantasy baseball career, probably near the start, you had a dream that you were better than everyone else at predicting player performance. Maybe not for every single  player but you at least had a few players, your guys, who you thought would have a big year. It was based on only hunches, but you were a confident, naive little soul.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
SethDaSportsMan

Billy Hamilton, In the Red

February 23, 2015 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 21 Comments

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In Nathaniel Hawthorne’s novel The Scarlet Letter, the protagonist, Hester Prynne, is forced to wear a red “A” on her dress as punishment for committing adultery.  Like Ms. Prynne way back in the 1600s, you too will be heavily penalized if you choose to cheat on your fantasy team by drafting Cincinnati Reds’ outfielder Billy Hamilton — a man with a different red letter on his uniform.

Hawthorne’s critically acclaimed tale concerned itself with many moral indecencies.  At the center of it all was the notion that adultery was a sin, and anyone who perpetrated this lascivious act would pay the consequences.  Attempting to gain an early edge in the stolen base category is one of the most heinous fantasy crimes an owner can carry out (cue the Law & Order: SVU opening).

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Adam Wainwright, 2015 Fantasy Schmohawk

February 23, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Overrated | 329 Comments

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Here’s one of the oddest schmohawks I’ve ever seen. If you ask everyone who carries a fantasy baseball ‘pert laminated diploma from the Fantasy Baseball College of Charleston in their fanny pack, they will tell you Adam Wainwright is angling for a disappointment this year. I’ve seen it written more times than I count. Of course, I can only count to seven, but, as Fonzie’s horse says, naaaaaaaay, my brain is still baffled by this peculiarity that I am witnessing. This peculiarity that just makes no sense. This peculiarity that is as hard to look at as an un-Photoshopped Beyonce. Along with these DANGER AHEAD articles on Wainwright, he’s also being ranked high. As the Spanish would say, question mark, what, question mark. Come here, sit on my lap and ask, “Why, Unkie Grey, does everyone warn against Wainwright then rank him high anyway?” Figuratively! Get off my lap! My best guess why we’re in some kind of Twilight Zone episode where Wainwright has become Wainwrong yet is still being ranked high while Burgess Meredith tries to locate another pair of eyeglasses is because everyone knows Wainwright. That’s right, he’s being ranked high because everyone knows him. It’s why Verlander was still ranked high last year. If you have three million people at your site that know Wainwright, is it easier to explain to three million people why Wainwright is headed for a bad year or is it easier to just rank him high and move on? Yes, I’m saying ESPN, Yahoo, CBS and Fox (does Fox have fantasy?) are just taking the easy way out and saying Wainwright will be good even though they know he won’t. Does that surprise you? If it does, I suggest you don’t open the gag can of peanuts in Spencer’s Gifts. You’ll really have a heart attack then. So, what makes Adam Wainwright overrated for 2015 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Mike

2015 Minor League Preview: Colorado Rockies

February 22, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 98 Comments

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Organizational Talent Rankings via Baseball America
2014 (11) | 2013 (21) | 2012 (16) | 2011 (10) | 2010 (10)

2014 Affiliate Records
MLB: [66-96] NL West
AAA: [53-91] Pacific Coast League – Colorado Springs (2015: Albuquerque)
AA: [71-68] Texas League – Tulsa (2015: New Britain)
A+: [43-97] California League – Modesto
A: [89-49] South Atlantic League – Asheville
A(ss): [33-43] Northwest League – Tri-City (2015: Boise)

Graduated Prospects
Tyler Matzek, RHP | Chad Bettis, RHP | Charlie Culberson INF/OF

The Gist
The Rockies are a great system to turn to for big upside fantasy prospects. The fact that a few of these guys will one day call Coors Field their home park only adds to the appeal. If you haven’t bought in already, this might be a good time with several of the top hitters in this system expected to see at bats in the hitting-friendly California League this summer. The same can’t be said for the pitchers in this system, who take a large hit on this fantasy list compared to traditional prospect rankings thanks to the same park situation. Eddie Butler, who made his big league debut in 2014, fell off the list entirely thanks to a shoulder injury. The Rockies will see three new affiliations in 2015 – Albuquerque (AAA), New Britain (AA) and Boise (ss).

Please, blog, may I have some more?
LT Murray IV

2015 Disgraces and Delights: Shortstops

February 20, 2015 | Uncategorized | 79 Comments

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Greetings! I’m back, better than ever. I’m top of my game, even them country boys saying “Beddict, we feelin’ ya maaaaayne.” My previous week has been spent scouring the internet, attempting to penetrate the brains of each and every player-ranking “expert” on the planet. What I found out is this…I absolutely adore the shortstop position this year! Say one thing for Beddict, he’s a lover. I know, I know, they can’t all have great seasons. You’ve got to be realistic about these things. But still, I’m fairly high on 12-16 shortstops this season and it will more than likely be a position I wait on in the draft. We have much to discuss, so let’s jump right in.

I am Tehol Beddict and this is, Disgrace/Delight! Take Heed!

Please, blog, may I have some more?