For my “Rest Of Season” edition of SAGNOF Special, I’d like to start with a confession, or really more of an admittance: I’m in two Razzball Commenter Leagues this year and last year I was in one. Those are only the fourth, fifth, and sixth rotisserie leagues I’ve ever played in. This despite having played fantasy baseball since 2002. The reason is because I’ve primarily played in head to head leagues. One of the biggest differences between the two formats is the nuance involved in the tradeoff of various hitter stats (what one hitter can give you versus what another can) in rotisserie and it becomes much more important to not just realize where you are in the standings of individual stats but to try to predict/project where you will be by season’s end. That’s why I’ve chosen to give you some Rest of Season Steamer projections for the best base stealers. Use it to project your own players, to project your place in the final standings, or to scheme up a trade.
Firstly though I’d like to give some thoughts on projection systems in general and I’m going to do so through the lens of a fantasy baseball discussion/debate that I saw on my Twitter timeline about a month ago. The debate centered around Billy Burns‘ ROS value but a Burns v Byron Buxton debate came out of that as well, with Sky saying he’d trade Buxton to acquire Burns and Rudy disagreeing, citing Buxton’s projections and the fact that Burns’ per game (aka $/G) projections make him approximately replacement level. Here’s a sample:
@Sky_Razzball @MichaelSalfino @scott_pianowski sky, we're on same team & i think you're on crazy island on this one http://t.co/SmB0TH8xD9
— Rudy Gamble (@rudygamble) June 18, 2015
I love projections more than the next guy but I have to wonder how accurate they are for Billy Burns or any rookie. For instance, what are the odds that Burns, a .306 hitter so far this year hits only .248 for the rest of the season? I’m highly skeptical of both his .306 season to date and the projected .248 rest of season mark and at the same time I have little idea which one will be closer to his rest of season reality. I think he’s about a .280 hitter but I also think that he will hit a rough patch this year and end up hitting about .270 ROS, if that makes any sense. The point is, I think that a player will generally regress to his projections but in some cases there is a skill improvement and when that happens we just don’t know how much the projections mean.
Forgive me for these projections being slightly outdated; I’m writing much of this on Friday because I’ll be on the road (returning home from vacation) Saturday and Sunday. I see that as of Friday morning some teams have as many as 88 games played so far (Toronto, Tampa, Houston, Oakland, Philadelphia) and some as few as 83 (Kansas City, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati), which is something I feel you should bear in mind and perhaps check out yourself if you want to get meta.
A brief explanation of the table: I’ve included the projected games played, Rudy ROS dollar value, OWN% and SB 162 in addition to the normal roto stats. SB 162 is stolen bases divided by games played then multiplied by a full season (162) worth of games, which gives us each player’s full season/full time pace. It’s sorted by the “SB” column.
| Name | ESPN | $ | G | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | SB 162 | OWN% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Hamilton | OF | 17.1 | 64 | 28 | 3 | 20 | 29 | 0.243 | 73.4 | 101 |
| Dee Gordon | 2B | 18.6 | 72 | 35 | 1 | 19 | 26 | 0.27 | 58.5 | 101 |
| Billy Burns | OF | 9.3 | 69 | 36 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 0.248 | 42.3 | 101 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | OF | 19 | 69 | 36 | 6 | 27 | 15 | 0.272 | 35.2 | 101 |
| Ben Revere | OF | 0.8 | 54 | 26 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 0.284 | 45.0 | 101 |
| Delino Deshields | OF | -2.2 | 54 | 26 | 3 | 19 | 15 | 0.228 | 45.0 | 65 |
| Carlos Gomez | OF | 27.3 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 34 | 14 | 0.262 | 31.9 | 101 |
| Charlie Blackmon | OF | 26.3 | 72 | 42 | 8 | 30 | 14 | 0.272 | 31.5 | 101 |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 10.2 | 56 | 30 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 0.298 | 40.5 | 101 |
| Mookie Betts | OF | 27.9 | 71 | 43 | 7 | 33 | 13 | 0.284 | 29.7 | 101 |
| A.J. Pollock | OF | 21.9 | 72 | 39 | 7 | 31 | 13 | 0.268 | 29.3 | 101 |
| Starling Marte | OF | 19.3 | 63 | 32 | 7 | 32 | 13 | 0.276 | 33.4 | 101 |
| Brett Gardner | OF | 23.6 | 73 | 45 | 7 | 32 | 12 | 0.262 | 26.6 | 101 |
| Jose Reyes | SS | 20.3 | 70 | 42 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 0.28 | 27.8 | 101 |
| Jean Segura | SS | 4.9 | 70 | 28 | 4 | 25 | 12 | 0.261 | 27.8 | 95 |
| Gregory Polanco | OF | 4.5 | 61 | 29 | 5 | 24 | 12 | 0.246 | 31.9 | 99 |
| Leonys Martin | OF | 2 | 66 | 26 | 4 | 23 | 12 | 0.257 | 29.5 | 72 |
| Anthony Gose | OF | -3.7 | 54 | 25 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 0.244 | 36.0 | 41 |
| Cameron Maybin | OF | 11.8 | 72 | 34 | 6 | 29 | 11 | 0.257 | 24.8 | 101 |
| Lorenzo Cain | OF | 11.2 | 65 | 30 | 5 | 29 | 11 | 0.276 | 27.4 | 101 |
| Alcides Escobar | SS | 6 | 75 | 36 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 0.265 | 23.8 | 94 |
| Elvis Andrus | SS | 0.5 | 73 | 28 | 2 | 23 | 11 | 0.264 | 24.4 | 82 |
| Jace Peterson | 2B/SS | -2.1 | 72 | 32 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 0.233 | 24.8 | 72 |
| Rajai Davis | OF | -9.3 | 34 | 19 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 0.265 | 52.4 | 79 |
| Carlos Correa | SS | 16 | 70 | 35 | 8 | 33 | 10 | 0.253 | 23.1 | 101 |
| Jason Kipnis | 2B | 15.9 | 73 | 40 | 6 | 29 | 10 | 0.266 | 22.2 | 101 |
| Denard Span | OF | 4.9 | 61 | 33 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 0.286 | 26.6 | 101 |
| Michael Taylor | OF | 3.8 | 74 | 28 | 7 | 28 | 10 | 0.228 | 21.9 | 64 |
| Byron Buxton | OF | -8.2 | 50 | 20 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 0.237 | 32.4 | 60 |
| Mike Trout | OF | 48.8 | 73 | 49 | 15 | 46 | 9 | 0.297 | 20.0 | 101 |
| Kevin Pillar | OF | 10 | 70 | 30 | 6 | 31 | 9 | 0.267 | 20.8 | 101 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 2B | 8 | 72 | 33 | 3 | 27 | 9 | 0.282 | 20.3 | 90 |
| Alex Rios | OF | 5.9 | 73 | 28 | 5 | 30 | 9 | 0.26 | 20.0 | 77 |
| Jose Iglesias | SS | 1.3 | 71 | 29 | 2 | 25 | 9 | 0.273 | 20.5 | 49 |
| Desmond Jennings | OF | -1.3 | 59 | 27 | 5 | 23 | 9 | 0.24 | 24.7 | 15 |
| Cesar Hernandez | 2B/SS | -7.6 | 59 | 24 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 0.252 | 24.7 | 97 |
Dee Gordon is injured so the projections are no longer useful for him except to compare his projected pace in various stats to that of other players. I noticed the lack of playing time in Billy Hamilton‘s projection, checked it out, and it does make some sense as he tends to sit fairly often. Still, I would say there is some upside to his projection because of the possibility that he plays more than projected. Don’t panic on Cesar Hernandez due to a weak (yet realistic) projection. Realize that so far he has 12 SBs in 226 PAs but is only projected for 9 more SBs in 268 PAs so he could easily exceed his projection and you picked him up for his ceiling, which I would say is about 14 SBs rest of season.
SAGNOF recommendations for stolen bases: The table above is there to help you figure out the best base stealers for your team needs from now until the rest of season. I’d also like to remind you that because there will be no games played until Thursday, if you have a roster spot that you usually stream with, you may instead elect to spend the spot on someone with upside, aka “The All Star Break stash”. I’m recommending Jose Peraza for SAGNOF purposes but if you want someone with power Corey Seager is a high recommendation — just in case of an all star break call up, but honestly, I’m not even sure if that ever happens.
I’m not bothering with projections for middle relievers, because although they are important (and it’s a good idea to use them when breaking ties), they are, among other things, not exactly in the spirit of SAGNOF because the projections won’t properly capture a player’s chance for a value boosting change in role. With the trade deadline less than three weeks away, I’m going to make this the first of three posts that will update possible bullpen shakeups caused by theoretical trades. We’ve already come to the conclusion that Ken Giles, Will Smith (possibly Jeremy Jeffress instead), J.J. Hoover, and Drew Pomeranz could be the beneficiaries of a role changing trade. On the flip side, it’s probable that Tyler Clippard would lose his role if traded. I’m going to use current MLB Standings to look at other teams that could possibly move their closers, with no regard for contract situations (among other considerations), because, frankly, I don’t have time to dig into those details right now.
Cleveland Indians (Cody Allen – Bryan Shaw/Zach McAllister), Chicago White Sox (David Robertson – Jake Petricka), Miami Marlins (A.J. Ramos – Carter Capps), San Diego Padres (Craig Kimbrel – Joaquin Benoit), and Colorado Rockies (John Axford – LaTroy Hawkins) are (record based) candidates to move their closer. Of these, John Axford is the one that certainly would not be a closer anymore if traded. It’s early yet so there is still plenty of time later to discuss which of these are realistic possibilities.
Jason Motte has been looking like the closer de jour for Chicago. Is it still a committee or is it his job? I really don’t know for certain because they have been getting so few save chances over the last month or so but I’m going to say that it’s basically his job to lose right now. His K:BB ratio of 22:9 in 33.1 innings is really bad but over the last 30 days it’s improved to 7:1 in 11 innings. Oft despised Jim Johnson is now the closer for Atlanta after a season ending injury to Jason Grilli.
