Hey everyone. Sorry for the relatively short notice but we have decided to go back to NFBC for our sponsored paid leagues in 2017. This is the $150 Draft Champions format. It is a 15 team mixed, 5×5 format with 50 rounds (done via a slow draft that takes about 2 weeks). The major quirk is that there are no trades OR free agent pickups. You can update your starting hitters twice a week (Friday and Monday) and pitchers once a week (Monday). I love this format as a complement to standard formats as it rewards drafters who can find breakout candidates/bargains on draft day. Here is a link to the full rules.

Once we have enough people to fill a league, NFBC will create the league. I recommend creating an account at NFBC if you do not have one as that will expedite everything.

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Fri 8/8
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | OAK

Go big or go home.  That’s not just what a casting agent says to men trying to break into porn, but it’s also how we have to attack these overrated for fantasy baseball posts.  I could’ve went Jacob deGrom, but he’s too easy to ignore.  He had kelp noodles implanted in his elbow this offseason for tendons, but can any man subsist on sea greens?  Nope, so you know a diet of meatballs is coming this summer.  You can’t only go kelp noodles; you’re setting yourself up to yo-yo; Oprah would’ve told him that; semi-colons are fun.  Jake Arrieta feels far less obvious of a CTRL-ALT-DELETE from draft sheets.  At least according to ESPN, where they have him ranked in the top 30 overall.  Coincidentally, as of the writing of this post, ESPN has Arrieta ranked right next to our other favorite battering ram boy (he’d love that nickname), Daniel Murphy.  But this isn’t about deGrom or Murphy or deGromurphy.  This is about Arrieta.  Oh, double negatives be damned, this isn’t about not drafting any starter as early as Arrieta is going.  I would not draft a pitcher in the top 30, but this is about Jake Arrieta.  Anyway, why is Jake Arrieta overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

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The article that gets passed around more than a Kardashian with professional athletes. Let’s change that. I believe this thing’s a…wait for it…keeper. Oh, gosh. Got ya there, didn’t I? Well, all hilarity aside, it’s about time we focused not just on the right now with all the Top 100’s, but we delivered one with an eye to the future. Let’s get a little wisdom in our baseball leagues that we can apply to the seasons to come. It’s time for the Top 100 Keepers!

Now, before we dive into the rankings, we need to discuss the subjective dynamic of keeper leagues. In my opinion, these leagues sit squarely in the middle of redraft annual leagues (you can find all of Grey’s rankings for 2017 HERE) and the deeper dynasty options like JB’s REL League or mine and Ralph’s Razz30. The former doesn’t need to look at age much, and the latter focuses primarily the mingling of prospects with big leaguers (Here’s where you can find Ralph’s Top 100 Prospects…such a great read). Yet, here we are with Keeper Leagues.

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I believe I’ve got a theory. Okay, perhaps it’s more of a conspiracy than a theory. Now that I think about it, it’s really just a topic for the next fifteen or so paragraphs I’m about to write. Is Trea Turner the primary subject of market manipulation? Say what! Seriously, what could that possibly even mean? Wikipedia defines market manipulation as “a deliberate attempt to interfere with the free and fair operation of the market and create artificial, false or misleading appearances with respect to the price of, or market for, a security, commodity or currency“. If we really consider the entire landscape it’s easy to come to the conclusion that “market manipulation” really doesn’t apply, or make sense in this context, but it got me thinking…

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Don’t worry, our blunders are still pretty entertaining!  Due to some last-second scheduling, our joke about the Oscars at the beginning became painfully true for us as well, as we jacked around the date and put the Pod up today!  Eh, well, it’s still early Spring, we got time before the season!  On today’s show, we recap some news from Spring like Anthony DeSclafani‘s elbow, Danny Salazar‘s great debut, and Max Scherzer‘s knuckle.  Then to the meat n potatoes – we preview Grey’s 1B and 2B rankings, with a light smattering of a C preview as well!  Follow along with the ranks found here, and let us know your additional thoughts in the comments.  Hopefully you can bring in more Brewers discussion, like Grey kept doing!  Here’s the latest edition of the Razzball Baseball Podcast:

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If this were a Meatloaf song, the title, “Andrew McCutchen, 2017 Fantasy Schmohawk,” would have this “Betting Against The Bounce Back” in parenthesis.  Some overrated posts are preordained by the man above, some posts are preordained by the men below.  This post is for the men below.  Those men are the ones in the comments touting how great Andrew McCutchen still is.  I think people get confused by fantasy in the most general sense.  I don’t dislike guys personally (okay, Daniel Murphy is the exception that proves the rule).  McCutchen seems like a great guy.  I’d buy him a beer if I ever saw him.  Of course, the beer would get returned to me with the note, “McCutchen only drinks Glenfiddich.  He is Scottish, after all.”  In real life, I want him to have a long and productive life.  May his walks on the beach be accompanied by a loved one and some crutches.  For fantasy, I want McCutchen to fail miserably.  I want his bounce back to go about as well as the yodeller’s on The Price is Right when the contestant is more than $25 over the actual retail price.  Anyway, why is Andrew McCutchen overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

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Our daily/weekly MLB projection tools (Streamonator, Hittertron, DFSBot, etc.) will be back for 2017. We are in the process of updating the payment software (our previous vendor, CoinTent, went out of business) so just hold tight for now.

But I do have two good pieces of news to share!

First, we partnered with our friends at FantasyPros to bring you a free fantasy baseball draft simulator where you can: 1) set the league preferences, 2) choose between either Grey or Rudy’s cheat sheets (you can see them when you scroll down from your player selection screen) and 3) see how it compares with the consensus (a decent proxy for ADP).

Second, given the demand from dynasty leaguers and redrafters who like rookie nookie for MLB prospect info, we just launched a new tool called Prospectonator (links for hitters and pitchers) that can now be found in the top menu (under Tools) and linked at the top of all the Preseason Projections/Player Raters.

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Last week we covered why you should join and RCL, so this week let’s start covering what to do once you’re in there.  To be honest, most all of this has been covered somewhere on the site over the years, most often by Rudy.  I covered this info last year, Big Odio has covered/ranted in the comments plenty about it as well.  If you haven’t been playing in RCLs though, I could see how some of this has been glossed over, so I’ll try to consolidate some info for the newbies.  Frequent players, feel free to skip ahead.

Should you take all my advice as gospel?  Nah, you do you, I’ll do me and we’ll both be happy.  All I can give you is a voice of experience.  I’ve played in these leagues for quite some time in some very tough leagues.  I’m not the best player around, but I can hold my own.  I’m here to help you do the same.  No one wants to be fighting for 11th place, so here we go!

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We back baby!  Spring Training is already starting up (We desperately need shorter games, but like 2 extra weeks of Spring Training?!?! I know, I know, WBC, but whatever!), we’re about to March, drafts about to be drafting…  Love this time of year.

So note to self – get the rankings done earlier in 2018.  Second note to self – bitch slap Grey when I see him in person next week for making everyone else look so bad, with his ranks done so early!  But hey, not like he’s got other sports to worry about!  Speaking of, if you haven’t played fantasy basketball yet, shameless plug sentence/link for you to come over and check us out on hoops!  Play in some Hoops RCLs next year maybe!

Ok, JB’s ADHD voice, back to bidness!  My yearly baseball magnum opus is finally complete – weeks in the works – and went from 9600 words last year to 9700!  Weird they were so similar… I’m kinda like Tolstoy, they just gonna keep getting longer, hah!  Of course no one is expected to read War & Peace in one sitting, so take your time getting through this bad boy!  I’ll wait!

I’m pumped to get the Pitcher Profiles ramped up again, better quality GIFs, and another year with the Gamescore+, which maybe we can start to automate with more batted ball data out there.  RUDY?!?!?!  WHERE’S RUDY?!?!?!?!  SOMEONE GET ME RUDY!!!  Also, if you missed the wrap up I put together a few weeks ago, you can check out how Grey and I did vs. ESPN with the 2016 SP ranks.

A question that is always debated and weirdly always different for each ranker/rankings sets is: are these your personal rankings?  Adjusted for ADP?  Are they how you would draft, or how you think guys will finish?  I’ve decided I have the be all, end all answer.  I did these ranks initially without looking at ADP or any other rankings sets.  The ranks are my personal ranks for how I would value guys one over the other, and then I’ll use this list to be malleable for every draft/site/league format.  Pigeonholing ranks to adjust for ADP means you’re stuck looking at one list of ADP data.  So there’s my answer for how I approach rankings.

Anyway, here we go!  Find below my top 100 SP for 2017.  And as always, my top-5 sleepers (to varying degrees) are James Paxton, Sean Manaea, Blake Snell, Ivan Nova & Reynaldo Lopez.  Plus bonus #6 – Tyler Skaggs – moved him up after re-looking at his data.  Apparently I love my lefties this year!

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The phrase “I’m excited for Spring Training” is a double edged sword, especially in fantasy baseball. We’re all excited to see the early signs of life on our already drafted fantasy teams, yet there is still a month of emptiness before the actual returns start trickling in. That leaves ample time for overreaction to minor injuries and excessive helium for players who put together a few good at bats.

Although many owners have the discipline to completely neglect the impacts of recency bias during the Spring, some will always fall prey to the hype, and you will feel the resulting impact in the draft room. Sometimes, it may even be good to fall prey to that hype. As we all know, fantasy baseball is often a game of balance. Below I’m going to aggregate my reaction to what has happened in the few games we have seen so far and how, if at all, I have translated these points over to the fantasy section of my baseball mind.

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Let the overreaction to Spring Training numbers begin! Gregory Polanco went 3-for-3 with 2 stolen bases in his debut — 115 SB prediction for Polanco! Jason Castro went 2-for-2 with a HR in his first game — 60 HR for Castro! Shelby Miller allowed 2 runs, 3 hits over 2 innings — that is actually pretty on-brand for Shelby Miller. Do not trust Shelby Miller! Health is really what you’re looking for in Spring Training and these guys are failing that test so far…

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Oh no he dint!  I dit.  No, he dint!  I dit!  Dint!  Dit!  That was my right and left side of my brain debating Carlos Gonzalez as overrated.  You’d be surprised at how often the two sides of my brain get in these verbal sparring matches.  The left side of my brain was in the Debate Club in high school, so you’d think it was an unfair fight, but the right side of my brain conjured up an imaginary Debate Club with six imaginary debaters, an imaginary Debate tourney and an imaginary trip the Debate club went on where I lost my very real virginity.  The left side of my brain is like, “Wut!?”  Since the right side of the brain made up all of that, it’s understandable that the best argument the left side of my brain can come up with is ‘Oh no he dint!’  Of Coors, I don’t like going against Rockies hitters.  This is the first time I’ve labeled a Rockies hitter overrated since I went after Tulo, which came out aces, prolly.  No false modesty here, I’m never wrong on these schmohawk posts.   You short a schmohawk and you’re golden.  Like my Ocean Pacific Bermudas, these are the greatest shorts ever.  Anyway, why is Carlos Gonzalez overrated for 2017 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?