Small Sample, Big Outlook: Aristides Aquino

After a slight breakout in 2016, where he posted a 143 wRC+ in the FSL, Aristides Aquino was one of the most popular under the radar prospects in all of baseball, and had a lot of helium heading into 2017. In the next two seasons following, Aquino would play about 250 games in AA, where he struggled mightily to find his footing. This was nothing new for him, as he’d spent 4 seasons in rookie ball before he was finally ready for full season, but people gave up on Aquino for the most part after 2017. While he played fairly well in 2018, Aristides Aquino was a name that was on very few people’s radars going into 2019.

Despite being cut from the 40-man roster, Aquino turned some heads at Spring Training, not for his play, but for his extremely unorthodox stance. Despite how strange it may look, this drastic change made a huge difference for Aquino, as he came out absolutely dominant in AAA. At the time of his callup in August, Aquino had put up a slash line of .299/.356/.636 with 28 HR in only 323 PA; good for a 144 wRC+. Despite his drastic improvements and the trade of Yasiel Puig people still weren’t talking about Aristides Aquino when he was called up. It only took a couple of weeks for that to change. In his first 16 games (1 of which was a pinch hit appearance), Aquino hit a record 11 HR, and was possibly the biggest story in all of baseball. Three months later where do we stand with Aristides Aquino?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Brendan McKay, 2020 Fantasy Outlook

November 8, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 59 Comments

by: Grey

True or false, the best thing about Brendan McKay is he sounds like what a dad in the 1990’s would’ve called two different characters on 90210. Gonna go with false, but a fantasy baseball ‘pert has the prerogative to change his or her mind. On a side note that’s only tangentially related (like the rest of this will be related), McKay is the fourth guy this offseason who either just kept or lost rookie eligibility. McKay threw 49 innings, and the cut-off is 50. Interesting side note there, Tangent Grey. Brendan McKay is a two-way player from the Rays; imagine if the Rays were short for Ray Searage. *insert GIF of Rays fans King Tommen’ing out of a window* Thankfully, it’s not and the Rays, I’m told, are good with pitchers, but how are they with hitters? Fine, but they’re like a guy who lives in a refrigerator in Home Depot. They have a ton of tools at their disposal but there’s an overload of tools with way too many options, and they’re always giving us the cold shoulder. (You thought the refrigerator was unplugged — ha!) If hitting and pitching made Ohtani a unicorn, McKay is a commitaphobe unicorn. Capable of doing the two-way thing, but either he or the Rays don’t seem committed to having him hit, so I don’t plan on projecting him for hitting. Maybe he gives a handful of homers in under 100 ABs, but you’re not really drafting him for that. Picture Michael Lorenzen without having the whole ‘pitchers hit’ thing. Sorry for those of you having Siri read you this, picture/pitcher prolly confused the shizz out of you there. So, what can we expect from Brendan McKay for 2020 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Austin Hays, 2020 Fantasy Outlook

November 7, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 54 Comments

by: Grey

Two Orioles for the fantasy baseball rookies series and Grey plants his flag in the Shizzville district of Camden Town. I’m someone sad like Morrissey singing about Camden Town. *places hand on ear to listen intently, another hand on my heart, swaying back and forth singing a song I don’t know so it’s just mumbles* “Blue blue blue, sad sad sad…So sad…” That’s me singing a sad song I don’t know. *climbs fence at the late Boog Powell’s house and places a flower on his freshly dug grave, sniffs around* That smells terrible. Just then Boog Powell comes out of the house, screaming, “I’m not dead! That’s my septic tank!” Sorry, Boog! I’m getting in touch with my O’s love! It’s my O’s face! Okay, fellas and five ellas, I don’t suddenly love the Orioles, but Austin Hays has great defense and an interesting hitting profile for fantasy. Defense doesn’t mean much for us, but it helps pencil in playing time. Here’s him making one of the best catches of last year:

via Gfycat

How much does Gorilla Glue have to advertise to get that placement behind home plate and also get Austin Hays to beat his chest like a gorilla? Did every Orioles player beat their chest after every routine catch? Is that all part of the same advertising campaign? What’s that, you don’t have Gorilla Chest-Thumps as a category in your league? Hmm…Can you find a new league? No? Okay. So, what can we expect from Austin Hays for 2020 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Top 2020 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

November 6, 2019 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 21 Comments

by: The Itch

Whatever we each believe about politics, whatever we’re rooting for in Impeachment Fest 2019, we can probably agree things aren’t ideal right now in America.

Reds fans know the feeling. They might have differing ideas of what’s wrong with the recipe and how to make it better, but they can probably all agree the chili hasn’t been good. The front office chefs are still trying though, wheeling and dealing and hiring Driveline pitching guru Kyle Boddy to sprinkle his secret sauce into the pot. Combine him with pitching coach and off-speed whisperer Derek Johnson, and you’ve got a must-stop hotspot for pop-up pitching prospects.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Sam Hilliard, 2020 Fantasy Outlook

November 5, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 27 Comments

by: Grey

“Hey, Bud Black, do you see Sam Hilliard being called up to start the 2020 season?”
“He has to earn it.”
“Right, right, of course. Last year in Triple-A, Sam Hilliard hit 35 homers and stole 22 bags. Some would say that is earning it.”
“That was in an environment that was very conducive to hitters.”
“Um, yeah, well, the thing is, and I hope I’m not being out of line, but the Rockies play in Coors.”
“Right, but the pitchers in Triple-A.”
“Again, who am I to tell you your job, but the Rockies’ team ERA was 5.56.”
“ERA isn’t everything.”
“What measure are we looking at then?”
“The IDK percentage and other such stats.”
“Did you just make an acronym of ‘I Don’t Know?'”

The preceding was a conversation between Bud Black and a reporter. If you can find any reason why the Rockies did not promote a 25-year-old like Sam Hilliard, who hit 35 homers in the minors, during a season when they were essentially out of the race by May, please send it to me, because I couldn’t find a reason anywhere. They didn’t even have a steady center fielder all year. Are we sure Bud Black knows he has a minor league team of players he can call up at any time? I get it, sure, he could’ve played Raimel Tapia to see what he had with him. That’s a great theory! I wish that was what was going on, because Tapia was being randomly platooned too. Did Ian Desmond need to get 443 ABs? An alien who doesn’t know anything about baseball, except what it learned five minutes before being questioned (because, let’s be honest, it needs to know something to answer the question) would tell you, Desmond didn’t need that many at-bats. Here’s a hilarious example of stupidity. Bud Black gave Yonathan Daza more at-bats than Hilliard last year. Daza went 7/0/3/.206/1 in 97 ABs; Hilliard went 13/7/13/.273/2 in 77 ABs. HAHAHAHA–Breathe, Grey, breathe! Why would you not play Hilliard? Seriously, WHY? Caps for emphasis, not because I don’t know my own typing finger’s strength. So, what can we expect from Sam Hilliard in 2020 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Nick Madrigal, 2020 Fantasy Outlook

November 4, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 13 Comments

by: Grey

White Sox have their arm around Yolmer Sanchez’s shoulder as they walk him out of a diner in New Jersey. Yolmer’s glances are furtive, one quick move and he’s ready to run. The White Sox stop on the sidewalk and point towards an alley down the street, “Now, listen, Yolmer, go down there and pick out some nice furs for yourself.” “Uh, I don’t know, White Sox.” “Go ahead, Yolmer, get yourself some while you and Henry Hill are going through this.” “What? I’m Yolmer Sanchez, your 2nd baseman, why are you treating me like a snitch in Goodfellas?” “Go. Get. Yourself. Some. Furs.” Yolmer runs off, scared. And…scene! Well, hopefully that’s a scene for the White Sox and Yolmer as Nick Madrigal forces his way into the lineup. Really starting to like the White Sox for my random World Series pick in 2020. What kind of odds can I get? Good? Great! Put down $500 smackeroos of fake money for me! So, what can we expect from Nick Madrigal for 2020 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Top 2020 Prospects: Chicago Cubs

November 3, 2019 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 5 Comments

by: The Itch

Cubs affiliates spent 2019 enjoying the most minor league talent they’ve seen in a while—a welcome sign for a fan base whose dynasty dreams have died a little each year.

The developmental wing of the organization has been realigned this off-season, so we don’t know much about how the new team will help (or hurt) the players. I’m betting they help, especially the enhanced focus on nutrition and strength training. I think an argument could be made that four hours in a weight room combined with healthy food intake would help teenage players almost as much as four hours at the ballpark. Might be safe to say a whole-human approach would be best in most endeavors where you’re betting on said humans to improve over time.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Small Sample, Big Outlook: Dustin May

November 2, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 5 Comments

by: Will Scharnagl

After a strong performance in 2017, Dustin May truly broke out as a top pitching prospect in 2018, where he added a few MPH of velocity, while also scrapping his slider in favor of a more effective cutter, and a high spin curveball. While questions about his secondary stuff still existed, most considered May to be a top 100 prospect at the beginning of 2019, and he was ranked even higher at the time of his promotion. May’s August call-up was arguably the most exciting of a pitching prospect not named Jesus Luzardo or Brendan McKay, and for the most part he didn’t disappoint, but there are a few red flags that I think need to be addressed with caution moving forward. May’s debut was a mixed bag that, despite small sample size, gives us a great idea of the pitcher that May is, as well as the potential he has.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

2 Early Mock Recap: Drafting Like a Donkey

November 1, 2019 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 36 Comments

by: Donkey Teeth

Back in high school I remember there was a kid in my class who sported an iron-on patch on his backpack. The patch read, “Pornography Rapes the Mind.” I’m guessing that kid wouldn’t approve of my last production: Donkey Does Dallas. Anyway, I’m not here to analyze the porn industry and its effects on the mind—Grey will be covering that extensively in his Giancarlo Sleeper Post next week. Instead I’m here to discuss how mock drafts rape the mind. We join these mocks, select all our favorite players and rosterbate the night away. Then our real draft comes around and every player we want is taken two rounds earlier than in the mock; we’re left grasping our limp lineup wondering what in the name of Jesús Luzardo happened.

What I’m saying is, don’t take these mock results too seriously. For me, the real value in mock drafting is in gaining greater familiarity with the player pool and contemplating roster construction. Regardless, it’s still entertaining to take a look at the results and consider which players may or may not come at a value next year. Below you’ll find the first four rounds of my 2 Early Mock which took place across a two week period from early to mid-September. Find the full ADP data from all six 2 Early Mocks here, generously provided by Smada of Prospects Live and Friends with Fantasy Benefits.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Jesus Luzardo, 2020 Fantasy Outlook

October 31, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 51 Comments

by: Grey

Here’s what I wrote earlier this year, “From the journal of Jim Morrison, he wrote about an encounter he had with lizard wearing a crown of thorns that he alternated calling, Jesus Luzardo and The Luzard King. Here, I wish to transcribe Jim’s musings, ‘Today, I rode with a large Native American man to a Wawa to get some beej ferky (sic). The Native American man told me about the many lives he had lived and how he never trusted rookie pitchers. He recounted a story about how he traded all his pitchers for Chris Paddack, due to a great April in 2019. This was confusing to me, since this was 1970, but this wise Native American knew more in his head, which he covered in an Indians baseball club hat, than I’d ever know. Was this Lou Boudreau? Before we got to the Wawa, which was only three minutes away by automobile, so not sure why it was taking so long — were we lost? — the Native American man pulled over and picked up a pitchman for an insurance company which was an animated lizard. This was The Luzard King. An obvious lizard, which made it weird when it kept saying it was a gecko. The Luzard King said it had a shoulder issue early in the preseason of the 2019 season, which I had a premonition would be 38 years after my death. Also, oddly enough, I’m being fed a quote from the future from Prospect Mike about Jesus Luzardo. He will say, ‘Luzardo’s stock just continues to rise. He’s in the rarified air of ‘best pitching prospects’ now. The lefty threw 109 innings across three leagues in 2018 and posted a 129/30 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Everything is plus or better – the heater, the curve, the change, the control. He’s the total package, like the package I filled with anthrax and sent to Grey.’ Who is this Grey he speaks of? Who is Prospect Mike? Was it the peyote talking or was it something more mysterious?’ And that’s me quoting Jim Morrison quoting Prospect Mike! Don’t think Luzardo is going to be up before the All-Star Break, but now is the time to stash him. He could be a solid Middler like early Yonny. Call him Once Uponny.” And that’s me quoting me quoting Jim Morrison quoting Prospect Mike quoting me quoting–Greybot 5000 is overheating! Get me Gatorade and a cheap ace pitcher’s stats! Seriously, that was long and extra windy about Luzardo and I am so proud of myself for recounting it here. Anyway, what can we expect from Jesus Luzardo for 2020 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Top 2020 Prospects: Philadelphia Phillies

October 30, 2019 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 6 Comments

by: The Itch

One problem with evaluating Phillies prospects is reading. Sorry, Reading, the AA level, is one of the issues. Double A is typically the preferred level for anyone trying to get a read/handle on what a player could become. Josh Stephen is a decent example. As a 21-year-old outfielder in AA, he posted a 140 wRC+. Normally this puts up a “follow-me” flag. And Stephen does deserve some eyeballs as he heads into AAA at 22. But so what if he hits there? He didn’t hit in High-A Clearwater. By which I mean he skipped the level after not hitting in class A Lakewood (82 wRC+). Didn’t hit in Low A either (91 wRC+).

So what do we know about Stephen after four years in the system? That maybe he doesn’t have enough bat to carry the profile? I don’t think we can really say that about a guy who was always young for his level. To make matters better, he’s rule 5 draft eligible next December, so they’re running out of time before they could lose him. And now he’s headed for the juicy AAA balls, assuming they’re still juicy.

It’s not all bad news though. Pitchers go through this same crucible, and though it’s not the easiest path to value (see Adonis Medina’s 2019 stock movement), it might produce extremely resilient prospects, and I’m not sure there’s a more important aspect of making a living on the mound.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Ryan Mountcastle, 2020 Fantasy Outlook

October 29, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 15 Comments

by: Grey

I usually don’t Mr. Bungle things as badly as I Mr. Bungled Ryan Mountcastle this past year and for the first time I need to apologize. Around mid-May of nineteen after twenty, I told you to pick up Mountcastle because his promotion was imminent, then *raspberries lips* nothing. He was never promoted. He hit 25 HRs and .312 in Triple-A in 127 games, but the Orioles were stacked with major league options like Rio Ruiz, Chris Davis, Richie Martin–Wait a minute! I didn’t Mr. Bungle Ryan Mountcastle’s ETA in the majors! The Orioles filmed an episode of Botched over 162 games and forgot to promote him! This is on the O’s. I was about to take credit for messing up for the 1st time ever and, on second thought, I’m not taking credit anymore. No apologies, Eminem! No way, this is on them! Stupid O’s, which is what my Italian relatives call SpaghettiOs, for what it’s Werth. So, will Ryan Mountcastle be promoted this year? Well, with the O’s losing Breyvic Valera, they have a wide open spot for a guy with a Game of Thrones name. So, what we can expect from Ryan Mountcastle for 2020 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?