Sometimes a news story falls through the cracks, but Lewis Black is there to catch them in a segment we call Back in Black! Oh wait, got a little carried away there… I mean:
Sometimes a pitcher falls through the cracks, and Grey is there to catch them!
Now, I have somewhat of an excuse… Due to the MLB and regional networks wanting to stick it up the rear of their viewers and black out however-the-hell-far their national maps can reach, I can’t watch Orioles or Nationals games live in my region. It’s so frustrating that I sold high on Adam Jones in my keeper just because I couldn’t see the homers right away! I’m an instant gratification kinda guy, wink wink.
It’s easy to follow the hitters from these teams and see the highlights, but I never see big samples from either teams’ SP unless it’s on national TV. Or in this case, in a Pitcher Profile! Grey has been all about some Miguel Gonzalez on the Podcast, and I guess it’s easy for me to be a little dismissive as he’s never had “huge” numbers and I can’t ever watch him. Plus, how good could he be anyway, he’s not even the only starting pitcher named Miguel Gonzalez! Mmmmmm, Alfredo. But not the Simon kind! Anyway, since I’ve seen so little of Gonzalez and he had a very under the radar 2.09 ERA in the final 3 months last year and a 2.59 ERA this year with nice Ks, I figured it was a good time to break down his last start hosting the Rays to see how he’s doing pitch-by-pitch:
First Inning: Gonzalez’s first pitch is a high 89 MPH two-seamer taken by David DeJesus for ball one. Fastball again high is swung through and missed, 91 MPH heater is high and tight, fastball is fouled off, then the 2-2 two-seamer at 91 MPH runs back and paints the inside corner to start the day with a strikeout looking. Not bad! Steven Souza takes a four-seamer in there for strike one, then four-seam again a little higher is swung through and missed, quickly 0-2. The velo isn’t overpowering, but all fastballs and again heater at 92 high and outside, 1-2. Gonzalez’s first off-speed is a little slider that should’ve been strike 3 but is called low, 2-2. Then hanging slider a tad up and in is grounded weakly to third for the 2nd out. Not a great pitch and Souza made it close with his speed. There’s a good-looking breaking pitch with a 76 MPH curveball just low to Asdrubal Cabrera, fastball is high, fastball at 91 is swung under and missed, a good amount of swinging strikes already… Fastball is high to make it 3-1, then 92 MPH on the inside corner is popped up to shallow right to end the inning.
Second Inning: Still rocking a ton of fastballs, Gonzalez misses high then misses outside to quickly fall behind 2-0 to Evan Longoria. All ready to swing for the fences, Longo completely whiffs at yet another fastball to make it 2-1:
Yikes, crazy a 91 MPH fastball could make Longoria look like that! (also, finally got the GIFs settings right to make them look damn sexy, amiright?!) Slider hangs inside, 91 MPH fastball right at the knees is fought off foul, Gonzalez throws his fastest pitch so far at 93 MPH and it’s fouled back, then the 7th pitch is another high fastball at 92 – a little further outside but otherwise almost exactly like the GIF above – and it gets Longo swinging for Gonzalez’s 2nd K. Then the first pitch to James Loney is a two-seamer and it’s flied out to deep left for the second out. Loney gave it a ride, but not enough. And Gonzalez continues to blow fastballs by these Rays with Tim Beckham swinging late on a fastball 0-1, then a little bit of a hanging slider stayed in the zone and Beckham hits it hard through short and third for a single. Logan Forsythe fouls back a first-pitch fastball, another high heater is fouled back, then 92 looked like it was perfect at the letters but is called high, 1-2. After a few checks at first, Gonzalez throws another one of those inside sliders that doesn’t break much, but gets an easy groundball to third to end the inning.
Third Inning: Still a 0-0 game, Gonzalez gets a backdoor slider up high to break into the zone 0-1 to Kevin Kiermaier, fastball is fouled back, 91 MPH climbs high, then a 1-2 hanging slider stays up in the zone and Kiermaier bloops it to center, Adam Jones doesn’t charge the ball and Kiermaier sprinting the whole way gets to 2nd for a hustle double. Should be an error on Jones… Not so mad I traded him now! And what is Kiermaier doing hitting 8th in this order?! Anyway, Bobby Wilson swings at a first-pitch fastball and it’s an easy groundout to short for the first out. Bad AB there. Back to the top and DeJesus takes a change-up for strike one, then either a hanging slider or a change is hit decently to center, it’s caught easily though and Kiermaier moves to third. Two outs, and wow Steven Souza bunts, but Manny Machado shows why he’s such a highly regarded fielder and makes the play. Let Gonzalez a little off the hook there with the two out bunt, hoping to surprise.
Fourth Inning: Picking up three runs of support, huge off opposing pitcher Chris Archer, Gonzalez now supports a lead with a fastball low to Cabrera. Fastball again hits the inside corner, that mini-slider gets a foul back, fastball well outside, Cabrera pulls a fastball foul, then staying with the fastballs, a 91 MPH four-seamer gets an easy pop to third, one down. And man, Longoria is just overmatched out there taking a swing at this breaking ball in the dirt:
Actually might be a split-finger there, but we’ll check in with classification in the Final Analysis… A lot of pitches I’ve called sliders so far might’ve been some hanging splitters… Longo takes a slider outside, Gonzalez barely misses outside, Longo rolls a slider low, then a fastball is popped foul but with just enough room is Machado again for another easy out. Fastball inside to Loney, fastball lined foul, fastball paints the outside corner and the ump accidentally calls strike three… Second time I’ve seen that this year! And Gonzalez wastes no time with another burying split-finger to get Loney swinging to end the inning:
Nasty pitch there – this was the first inning I’ve been really impressed.
Fifth Inning: It’s been a pretty breezy 4 innings and Gonzalez gets Beckham to foul back a fastball, fastball on the hands is ripped foul, then fastball again high in the zone is roped to center, but it’s right to Jones for a loud first out. That was crushed, just to the wrong spot. Breaking ball at 77 MPH drops into the top of the zone on Forsythe, slider inside, then 91 MPH again a little high and down the middle is crushed to left for a double. Fastball not fooling them as much right now. Kiermaier takes a fastball inside, again heater inside, then a fastball on the outside edge is rolled over to second for a groundout. Forsythe didn’t move to third for some reason, so it’s two down with a runner on second and Wilson fouls a fastball right off the mask of Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph, hanging slider is fouled back, slider again is fouled third base side, then a fastball off the outside edge is fouled to center to end the inning.
Sixth Inning: At only 65 pitches, Gonzalez delivers a fastball high to DeJesus, then fastball again is hit pretty hard to center, but Jones gets it a step ahead of the track for the first out. In Camden that might’ve been trouble… Souza takes a fastball in there, a nice splitter hugging the outside corner gets strike two, then a fastball painting the outside corner locks Souza up for another K looking. Splitter hops in there to Cabrera 1-0, a little slider hits the outside corner, two-seamer runs outside, 92 MPH four-seam is right in there 2-2, hanging slider stays high and is tipped back foul, then another hanging breaking ball stays high and outside, but Cabrera swings through it for another K to end the inning.
Seventh Inning: Still in a great position with 73 pitches, Gonzalez rolls a curveball low, then a hanging slider on the inside corner gets Longoria to swing a smidge early foul, 1-1. Fastball is barely tipped foul, fastball again stays high, heater goes outside, then the payoff pitch is a fastball in Longo’s sweet spot, but he’s just under it for a high flyout to left to the track, one out. Another one that could’ve been trouble in Camden. Loney takes a curveball that rolls into the zone strike one, he pulls early on a splitter 0-2, four-seam stays outside, then another fastball on the outside lower corner is slashed to left, but David Lough is there for the easy catch. Two outs, and Beckham takes a sharp running two-seamer inside, 92 MPH high fastball is fouled back, 1-1. Good to see the velo still there 88 pitches in and Beckham swings over a two-seamer, 1-2. Then Gonzalez paints that outside corner with 92 MPH heat and Beckham can’t pull the trigger for yet another K looking.
Really good command right there; you couldn’t walk it to the plate any better than that!
Eighth Inning: A great curveball bends from inside to hit the low inside corner for strike one on Forsythe, curve again is low, fastball is way high and outside, then another hanging breaking pitch is bulleted right to Gonzalez and it’s through his legs and up the gap for a single. So Gonzalez might be towards the end of the line and a fastball is way too far inside to Kiermaier, but another fastball is popped up to short for an easy out. A high and tight fastball is pulled way foul by Wilson, then fastball again that got too much of the zone is laced to center, but Jones on the run makes the catch. Another out saved by Jones and Gonzalez trying to get through the 8th misses outside to DeJesus, 1-0. Splitter stays inside 2-0. Two-seamer barely catches the outside corner for a strike even though pitch tracker has it well off the plate, slider is right there in the zone 2-2, then a curveball that looked perfect hitting the lower black is called a ball, 3-2. Bad umpiring right now, but I guess it should be 3-2 either way. Payoff pitch is fouled back, then 3-2 again is a fastball way off the plate outside and that’ll be Gonzalez’s final pitch. He leaves two on but neither come back to hurt him, and it’s a great quality start from Gonzalez.
Final Line: W 7.2 IP 105 Pitches (70 Strikes) 0 ER 4 Hits 1 Walk 6 K Gamescore: 76 Gamescore+: 74.8
Final Analysis: To be honest, I still don’t know exactly what to make of Gonzalez… The Rays hitters saw him in the opening series this year, and Gonzalez went only 5.2 innings with 5 walks. In this start, he showed impeccable command and the Rays were baffled… I’m glad to see my stat working, with his Gamescore+ coming out lower than his Gamescore with some hard hit outs in his favor including a few deep flyballs that could’ve been trouble in Camden Yards.
Gonzalez had no trouble getting ahead in counts and pumped fastballs by the Tampa hitters sitting at only 90-92 MPH and only hitting 93 once. I don’t really see any clear deception in his delivery, but then again I’m watching him from the viewers angle and not the batters box. He indeed throws a slider (I wasn’t sure since it had so little break and almost all of them were high in the zone – they might have been hanging splitters), but it didn’t do much in this game from a viewer’s perspective. It worked almost like a cutter, but most seemed hung. He didn’t throw too many curveballs this start even though he uses them 10.8% of the time on the season. His best pitch – at least in this start – was that split-finger which comes out of the same delivery as the fastball and just dies in the dirt. Maybe he didn’t have a great feel for the slider and utilized the splitter more, but I’m surprised it’s only been used by Gonzalez 14.1% of the time this year.
The fastball isn’t overpowering, the slider didn’t look good, and his split-finger was the only pitch that impressed me… As implied in the title, Miguel Gonzalez looks a little pedestrian to me. Just a guy. But it’s hard to dispute a sub-2.50 ERA over the last 3 months of 2014 and a month so far this year, especially since he’s pitched 9 straight games against AL East divisional opponents. Nine times! Pretty impressive with the big bats in the division.
If I had to think of a comp for what Gonzalez is doing right now, it would be that run Dillon Gee had towards the end of 2013 and early 2014. Had a long-sample low ERA, ebbs and flows with the Ks, and generally was undervalued. Gonzalez did break into my top 100, but I have a hard time seeing him climb too much higher. The stuff wasn’t all that impressive, and he still has shown control issues with 10 walks in his first 3 games. It was solid in this start and he’s certainly worth a spec add or a stream, but I’d be nervous relying on him all year. It doesn’t help in the short term that the poor guy misses a start at the Mets and again has to pitch at the Yankees his next time out… 10 in a row!
JB’s Updated Top 100 SP
(rankings based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)
Dropped Out: Brandon McCarthy, LAD (TJ, ugh), Homer Bailey, CIN (TJ, but shouldn’t they have figured that out last year?!), Daniel Norris, TOR (AAA)
- Nothing too crazy up top with only light shuffling; really the only high faller is Masahiro Tanaka with the wrist/forearm injury. I actually think he’s a solid buy low; he’s shown he can recover from injuries and even if the splitter isn’t used as heavily, it’s worth the risk for a bargain price right now.
- Biggest riser is Andrew Cashner for me. 16:2 K:BB last two starts and the velo is actually his highest since 2012. He would move even 10-15 higher if it weren’t for added injury risk.
- F you, Shane Greene.
- I hate Drew Hutchison. Hated him coming into the year, decided to raise him up last week, and he got absolutely pummelled for 12 runs and a 2:6 K:BB in two starts this week. Ouch.
- James Paxton looked sooooooo much better in his last start. As I mentioned on today’s Pod, he started in the low 90s with a fastball – even as low as 89 – but by the second inning it was mid-90s and he ramped it all the way to 97 like the good old days. It only averaged 94.0 in the start, marginally his best on the year, but looked dominant after the first inning. The time is now to scoop him back up, which effing Grey did in our league WHILE I’M TRYING TO RUN A PODCAST! Hate you Gray (sic)!
- Another guy to grab right now is Carlos Rodon. I didn’t think he’d be in the rotation any time soon, but it sounds like he’s really close. Impatient owners may have cut him after some ho-hum relief appearances, so now is the time.
- I guess the lucky peripherals from last year had me underrate Danny Duffy, who looked incredible against the Tigers this past week. Other than a 5 walk game against the historically patient A’s (Moneyball!), 3 walks in his other 4 starts with near MLB-best velocity.
- I feel like a moron that I actually have to LOWER a bum like CC Sabathia, but only 5 Ks in his last 2 starts while still not doing much.
- You’ve been asking for it, you’ve been begging for it, so alas – Travis Wood makes the top 100! I still don’t expect too much – I think the Ks go down and BB go back up, but he is durable and could be marginally usable most of the year.
- An interesting observance – 3 of my next 5 out are Marlins with Dan Haren (injury risk), Jared Cosart (gambling risk) and David Phelps (rotation spot risk) all right there. I suppose Cosart would be closest with the upside, but he seems just like Eovaldi to me…
Thoughts on Miguel Gonzalez? Am I treating him too pedestrian? And if any other ranks seem off, certainly let me know below and happy pitching in May, Razzball Nation!
how are pomeranz and greene still that high?
@The Harrow: 52 and 62 is high? Well this is almost a week old, and at the time Pom had 25:5 K:BB with no blowups. Since then, he had 5 BB 2 K start and will fall a tad. Can’t re-rank every day :) Greene still has good upside and just showed it tonight, although it seems he can only succeed with low Ks. He’s ranked good to me. Who’s egregiously below them? Maybe Shelby, but I’m still pretty anti-Shelby
Sweet, snagged Duffy a little while ago. Still managed to win my match up this week 9-1. I’m rolling with just one bench bat for now. Hopefully Klubot reboots and a few of my question marks prove themselves worthy( or not) before my DL bats Yan, Springer and Arcia get healthy and force me to make some hard decisions.
@Eric B: Nice work man! Yeah Klubes should be fine. I think by the time Yan and Arcia are back you’ll have some better info on your bubble guys.
Whats up JB…it’s been a tough ass week for my staff lol. And to add insult to injury, I just missed out on adding Syndergarrd. So what would you recommend for this roster?
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP Fiers
Bench SP Chavez
Assuming you think I should hold on my fringe arms like Walker, Fiers , Chavez, etc. Duffy, Hutchinson, Colby Lewis or Karns for the last spot?
@Eric B: Yeah my Kluber teams have been rough too. Def like your core of guys, throwing out Lewis and Karns. I’d still lean Duffy, even though he’s off that atrocious start
Matt Moore worth adding to DL spot? Will have one opening up soon. Guy was filthy in 2013.
Also, will Mets trade Gee? I’m pondering stashing Snydergard……thoughts? Already stashing Rodon. It’s a tough call. Niese is out there, as is Frias, but …. I’m in undecided mode today obviously.
@Greg: Sure if a DL spot is open. I think I like Corbin a tad more if he’s out there, but that’s it. Syndergaard getting called up sure makes me happy, we’ll have to see how he looks Tuesday, I’d pick him up if you could
Have fiers, Nelson, and chase Anderson are you keeping them over frias, colome, rubby. Are all of them streamers? If so just plug and play with right match ups or hold onto any of these guys?
@David: add karns to that list
@David: Yeah they’re all streamers for me, Nelson would be the best hold IMO though. No issues filtering all of them in and out
JB, here some pitchers I been following closely.. Chase Whitley, R DeLaRosa, C Anderson and your boy Porcello…
All of them over 8 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.. Any of them worth owning?
Over Pax, Chavez or Shoemaker?
I also own Bauer – Kerhsaw Strausburg and Salazar
@los locos: Yo! well first off, Porcello and I broke up, he’s no longer my boy. Rubby is my guy of the group, I’m really starting to come around. Given up 6 HR already which seems a little fluky. That said, I don’t think I’m making a move yet, Rubby vs. Shoe is close though
JB. Any chance you write a pitcher profile on Mike Fiers? I missed this last game, but I was watching the ESPN gamecast – I’m curious if all the walks were more a reflection of a stingy ump, rather than bad control. The dude racks up the Ks, and I think he’s been rosterbated by a lot. As a fellow brewer fan, I’m curious to hear what you think of the guy – I think he is a solid piece in a shitty rotation….
@Mrs.Featherbottom: As a fellow Brewers guy, I watched a good bit and he looked OK. Wanna know what he needs? Lucroy back. Stuff has indeed looked a lot better the past few starts, just not coming together. Having the immaculate 9 pitch 3 K inning was sick though! I think he’s a little bit of a streamer and would avoid him in lineups with good lefties, who seem to be seeing the ball well vs. him
Hey JB, question for you…
Do you think its worth rostering both Yadier Molina and Derek Norris in a 1 catcher league? Someone dropped Molina so I grabbed him to hold…
My other option is to drop one of them and add a SP, currently I have Kershaw, Harvey, Hamels, Cashner, Fiers rostered, and on the waiver wire are Jimmy Nelson, Ian Kennedy, Jose Quintana, and Trevor Bauer. What do you think?
@saiyanzzrage: I usually don’t, but I don’t think there’s much of a difference between Fiers and those waiver guys. Bauer might be worth owning over Molina though. Depends on your SP starts/innings limits, if they’re tight I’d be fine holding both C for now
@JB Gilpin: Cool, thanks…i think youre right, my league only allows 5 starts per week (really hate it) so I dont see myself ever needing help when i have the other starters I already do..maybe stream a 4th pitcher if i need, but i dont see the need to roster another SP if i wont ever use them…at least with Molina I have the flexibility if he gets hot or norris starts cooling off
@saiyanzzrage: Yup I’m with ya there, and Norris is already starting to cool off a bit it seems, but that SB yesterday was nice!
Would you drop Carlos Martinez or Desclafani for Alex Wood?
@Eric: Yup I’d lose desclafani
Ha, this isnt the first time we’ve ran out of reply room lol. So we were debating Walker or Duffy for my team. You asked if I had start/IP limitations however we do not. Just a standard HTH 5 X 5 with OBP instead of AVG on O. So for reference here’s my roster again:
( 5×5 HTH OBP league)
Bench Avisail Garcia
DL C Yan Gomes
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP Fiers
Bench SP Chavez
So who you got Duffy or Walker?
Also on the DL you’d roll with Corbin, Yan and Arcia and drop Moore…correct? So you think Corbin will contribute? I could replace Corbin with Parnell, Austin Jackson, Jed Lowrie or Lamb.
@Eric B: Well someone beat me to Duffy, must be meant to roll with Walker for a little longer lol.
@Eric B: I’ve never been a Moore guy, so yeah I like your DL guys. Damn on Duffy! Well, it was close at least, so not that bad a hit
@JB Gilpin: Yeah I will survive lol…So I got offered one of SP C. Martinez oir OF Span and RP Storen for RP Chapman and SP Walker…thoughts?
@Eric B: Nah I don’t really like either one of those
@JB Gilpin: Might be a good thing I missed on Duffy, obviously only one start and walker could bomb Friday but Duffy got rocked.
@Eric B: Yeah, well at least they pulled him before the damage could get worse… It wasn’t as bad as a Walker-rocked game!
@JB Gilpin: Only Greene games are as bad as Walker games lol. Had to adjust my DL today, with Springer hitting it. Had to drop Corbin so DL is now Arcia, Springer and Yan picked up Pomerantz to stream today.
@Eric B: And Pomeranz and Fiers killed me…sigh. Duffy was dropped today, is he worth adding in Pomeranz spot? Keep Fiers? Colome, Folty and Marco Gonzales are probably the only potential upgrades after Duffy.
@Eric B: Hah good point on Greene.
Uggghhh Pomeranz. Not a big fan. Fiers I just can’t figure out. I’d add Duffy for Pom. Probably holding a tad longer on Fiers, tough matchup
who would’ve thought a couple of weeks ago that in the battle of who reached more: Grey’s Latos, or JB’s Soylent Greene, that Grey’d be winning? I’m seriously thinking of dropping this sac in two dynasties.
1. 20 teamer with K/9 and QS. if folty keeps job i could keep him over greene, or drop greene for stream spot, but the guys free are locke/may/marquis/phelps etc. can’t really bench greene since we have 35 min innings per week, and can only have 13 total pitchers (7 in RP slots, up to 1 BN pitcher)
2. 12 teamer where i traded heaney for him, but with deep enough teams (30 player) that’s it’s just short of a 16 teamer. HR’s allowed, OBPA, QS categories added. options are holding and benching (no innings min problem here), or streaming from weaver/karns/hudson/colby/b.anderson/phelps/idriselba despaigne/may/whitley.
@Mordacious Levator: Hah yeah it’s been bad. With K/9 a stat, I indeed would keep Folty even though he didn’t K a ton his first game. 2. Yeah I’m losing Greene there for streaming options. A lot of “meh” but I like meh in a good matchup more than Greene for a good while haha
CMart, steep regression due or aberration? Sounds like he got nickel and dimed and then fell apart like young pitchers sometimes do….You still have him ranked pretty high (or was that before his start? LOL),.
@Greg: Hah, yeah it was before this last blowup start. I think it’s more aberration and as you mention, I heard the zone was rough in that start too. I think he’ll be fine when it’s all said and done with some big ups and bad downs
Hey JB, first time poster here, need some advice…
Current SP on my team are:
League has 5 start limit per week, so 99.9% of the time im starting Kershaw, Harvey and Hamels, and Cashner when the others have 1 start.
I have some room, and looking to pick up 2 SP to keep on my roster…ROS, who would you add?
@saiyanzzrage: Yo dude, thanks for stopping by! Ugh, only 5 starts in a week?! That’s tough… The ranks above are for ROS, so without me looking I think it’s Bauer and Nelson for me. Looks like I had Hughes one ahead of Nelson, Hughes will fall again for next week’s update.
What your thoughts on Colome?
@los locos: Stock goes up with Cobb news, not huge on him though , never been a monster in minors
Synderguard, what about Matz? Wow the Mets are loaded at pitching… Synderguard is available for me in one league. I have Imkuna on DL spot, is one of them worth owning… I also have J Hammels who I just have for no reason.. Good amount of guys left on waiver, including Pax, M Gonazlaez, AJ…
Shoemaker looked good night lets see if he can do it againt.. What was he on the bereavement for? Maybe something was bothering him.
Cobb got to move down this list shortly, probably around Imakuma.. Odorizzi I feel should be moved up a tad.
@los locos: I know Matz is getting some buzz, but I still like Syndergaard. I think he’d be up first. Nah bereavement is for family issues I think he had a kid.
Cobb will probably move way way down, if not all the way off depending on news through the week. I’ve never been the biggest Odorizzi guy, and no HR this year after giving up 20 last year. A little scared some regression might hit there
Great work JB….I’m having trouble with my SP, having drafted Carrasco, Richards, Cobb, Pax and the Shoe to go along with Cole…my hitting is fine and just picked up Reddick who’s forcing me to sit Avisail…would you trade Carlos Gonzalez for McHugh and Smyly or is that a sucka’s move?
@serch: Nope not a sucka move at all! I have some serious concerns with Cargo, so I’d def pick up those arms. Helps that move too that Cobb just had a major setback, ughhhhh
Thoughts on Lester?
I’m trying to upgrade pitching, and I was offered Lester for Braun. Would you accept?
@Alex: I did move him down a good bit and have some concerns, but he should be fine. That said, I think I’d want more than Lester for Braun straight up
With Doolittle coming back and after he proves he is OK, should I drop Boxberger who I added to hold the fort, or one of my other pitchers. I normally like to carry 3 RPs, but my pitching staff is not looking to good. H2H.
Sp: Samardzija, Archer, Lynn, Bauer, Greene, DesClafani, Koehler, and Billingsley (just added).
Rp: Chapman, Street, Boxberger
thanks for your comments.
@Chris: Is it daily moves? If so, I’d lose Billingsley and give up that streaming spot, but if you’re stuck in weekly moves and can’t utilize all your RP, I’d look to trade
Keeper league trade
Do you think I could get sale for Zimmerman And Grilli?
is that something you would try and offer
@slimbo: Nahhhhh I don’t think he’d take that, but can’t hurt to offer! Maybe you get a counter and can work something out
just dealt cashner And melancon for kluber and Giles. Saves and holds separate categories. Thoughts?
@B The Esq.: Ummmm, AWESOME! Love it
10 team redraft h2h…. deep pitching league.
My Moosetacos and Big Teix for his Carrasco? His 3B and CI are Pedro Alvarez and Billy Butler…
Fair offer? I suspect he rejects.
If he does is Teix for Smyly fair?
@jal179: Sure that’s a fair deal. I’d be good with the Smyly one too, like him a lot this yr
Is Chavez more of a short term arm considering some of the injured As pitchers will be back soon?
@Thomas Mancini: There is risk he loses a spot, but we had the same concerns last year and he started most of the year.
syndergaard just won PCL player of the week. any idea of how far off he is? should I use my streaming spot to stash
@dom: Yup he’s looking sharp! I’d guess June. Depends on league depth, if 10 or shallower 12er I probably wouldn’t, any deeper I probably would
Would you trade Seager or Devon Travis for Alex wood? I’ve got Altuve and Donaldson, and have just been using Seager or Travis in my utility spot. Don’t need both of them.
@sternal: Yikes, depth is a great problem to have, but agree you need to trade. But Wood is so shaky right now I’d probably look for someone else
After Wood’s outing last night, I would have to agree. Thanks for the advice and I always appreciate the rankings. @JB Gilpin:
@sternal: Thanks for stoppin by man!
Well at least Wood lowered the 17ERA that Cmart left me with…….
Pax available in two leagues.. Trust fall JB!
@Shawn of the Livid: Yikes… Trust fall into that Paxton! Into that giant maple leaf tattoo he has!
Hey, JB, thanks as always for the in-depth value content.
According to your rankings, I’m sitting pretty in a 10-team 5×5 standard roto with the #12, #15, #25, #30 and #34 SPs (Greinke, Carrasco, Ross, Ventura, and Salazar). Unfortunately I’m dead last in ERA and WHIP, thanks to some early season misfortune with Hutchison and Shoemaker. Are you optimistic my current crew is going to be enough to turn the ratios around? Or do I need to move somebody? SP #6 can be Jimmy Nelson, Burnett, or Happ, who are on waivers.
@Sherm: Thanks for reading man!
Nice, I like that staff a ton! Carrasco is gonna bounce back, as will Ross to a good extent and Salazar is oozing even more upside. I think you’re good. Not much separates Nelson and Burnett, I’d likely stream
Would you trade us for: Joey Votto and Andrew McCutchen?
@Adam Jones and Jose Abrue: Nahhhh, too much risk coming back, gimme Jones/Abreu
Your pitching rankings are my bible.
What are your thoughts on Salazar? I got offered Wacha for him straight up in a competitive 10 team points league.
Also in that league, I have 5 starters in your top 20. I patted myself on the back and then rosterbated for 3 hours straight. ????
@Fister Furbush: Thanks so much man! Really really appreciate that, I just hope not to have too many blasphemous things haha. Whoa, I like Salazar, but gimme dat Wacha! Although Salazar’s K:BB is crazy, we just need to see a few more.
Whoa, I will circle-rosterbate with you nice work!
Is Phil Hughes a streamer?
@Mike: I didn’t like him coming into the year, so yeah I can’t defend it in 10 or 12ers, yup a streamer
I have an offer for McCutchen in a keeper league that I just took over. I am trying to clean up this team and get as much for him as I can. The offer was for Rendon, Swihart, and Alex Wood and he would also throw in Salazar, Carlos Martinez, Matt Moore, or Taijuan Walker. 1. Would you do the deal and 2. Which of the last 4 would you pick if you would do the deal?
@Bobby: Ugh, well how many keepers is it? If under 10 I wouldn’t do that, Rendon is too much of a risk to get marginal guys you probably won’t keep in Wood/Swihart/throw in
Ugh, Alex wood killing me. He is so hittable right now.
@PapaJeanSegura: Mannnnn, yeah I really thought today would be the bounce back. Another hittable start later this week and he’ll sink pretty far
Yikes, looks like that Travis Wood regression took all of 5 hours to hit!
Great analysis, I love these
Two guys you’re higher than most are facing off tomorrow. Are you starting Paxton and Richard??
@JVanSlyke: Thanks so much man! Gimme Richards, I know Pax is on the upswing and Richards is walking a few too many guys, but I have a tad more trust in Richards
JFOH’s hitter ranks could be much improved by adding in your color movement indicators. Last week he mentioned something about his asking Jay to try to help him with something like this, and no update yet on that. Your ranks have had this (i’m assuming) simple feature for a while now. If you guys communicate help him out (unless of course i’m missing something here and there’s some unknown reason why that couldn’t happen). We’d appreciate it much.
@The Harrow: Thanks for the feedback man! Yeah, what can I say, I started these last year and now all the Razzball brass wanna be me :) I’ll shoot a line to Jay and JFOH about it.
Again, thanks for the feedback man!
Drop Carlos Martinez for Paxton and Phil Hughes for nelson they both got blown up in the first already ruined my week
@Aqua Sox: Ugh yeah that sucks for those guys… I’d get Paxton, probably dropping Hughes
In 14 tm 40 man dynasty league I’m fielding a ton of offers for my j.zimmerman. ..I’m hovering around 9th/10th and have terrible offense. ..
Been offered starlin or Jay bruce for jz
or Alex Jackson and clint Frazier for jz and melky.
leaning toward Castro or bruce or is that too low?
@mindicohn: Ehhhh, not in love with any of those. At first I got excited thinking it was Starling Marte you meant! I like that one! But nah I think I’d ask for Starlin or Bruce+ something small
Starting pax in LA tomorrow?
@Aqua Sox: Yup! He’s usually good against them too which helps
Love it. Thanks for the really great analysis. Very beastly stuff.
I’m in a H2H league with pitching categories IP, QS, ERA, WHIP, K9, Net Saves, and Holds. So, low K9 guys kill you. You have these guys all rated closely–anyone of them jump out to you in this format?
Burnett, Chavez, Happ, Pomeranz, Duffy, Chase Anderson
Looking to shitcan Greene for one of them. Thankee.
@Pouss-Pouss Drivers: I try man, really appreciate it! Nah, none of those guys are really higher Ks with more ERA/WHIP risk I think I would take Burnett first of the bunch but so so close
What is your opinion on bench players? I currently have 2 offensive players (Russell & Aoki) on my bench and the following pitchers on my bench:
-Nelson, Paxton, Axford
Drop any of those bench players (off or pitching) for Alex Guerrero, Fiers, Ventura, Quintana or Bauer? Thanks!
As in, would you stack up entirely on bench SP’s or should I keep Russell and Aoki around? (12 team redraft)
@BulinWall: Defffff adding Ventura. I think in overall principle it’s a case by case basis, but Ventura should be owned. I’d probably let Aoki go first
starting odorizzi vs red sox today?
@bb: In Boston with his flyball tendencies, I probably wouldn’t
Should I drop Mesoraco for Swihart?
@LincolnT: Ummmm… Leaning no but it’s razor close
Start Hammel vs Brewers or Haren vs Giants this week?
@M: Gimme Hammel!
Drop T. Wood, Happ,Hammel, and Ubaldo for
Chavez, Nelson, pomeranz, chase anderson, rodon, Duffy, Miguel gonzalez
What do you think? Should one of those spots just be for streaming?
@Aqua Sox: All those guys are in the streaming range for me except Nelson. I’d try a long haul for him. So I’d play matchups for the rest of them, rodon might be worth adding at this point too, probably for Wood for me who I think is going to regress
Have T. Wood, Fiers, Chase anderson are you dropping any of them for happ, walker, nelson, greene, Chavez, Colome or just stream those spots during the week?
@Mario g: Mostly going to stream those spots with all those guys out there. I think I would invest in Nelson though as a guy to hold throughout
I agree F Shane Green and thanks for the updates JB! Glad to see the 2 most recent moves I made (adding Fiers and Chavez) from the wire seem to be in line with your rankings. Dropped Happ and Colome(just dont want to give up on Walker yet and no ones racing to pick up Happ) and my staff now looks like this:
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP Fiers
Bench SP Chavez
@Eric B: Haha thanks man! Wish Greene didn’t start hanging everything and looking like a bum… Lookin good man, I’m with your moves! Walker is a great stash still, not like I shot him way down
@JB Gilpin: No not at all, hell I’m a lil’ down on him, way too many long balls and lack of location, but the stuff seems to be there…I’m holding for a couple of more starts. From one NC guy to another, appreciate the time you put in on these posts and the comment section…play on playa; play on.
@Eric B: NC fa life man, love doin it! Thanks for stoppin by!
@JB Gilpin: Quick question, saw you gave Duffy some love above. Just realized he’s available on my wire. Assuming we agree Walker is my lowest rated SP, would you replace him with Duffy or hold Walker?
@Eric B: Ohhhhhh that’s a good one. Walker obviously has more upside. But I might move to Duffy, his stuff has upside too
@JB Gilpin: Kinda what I was thinking. Comes down to Walker or Chavez for that spot. I now Walker my be the obvious choice but I might wait to see how chavez does tomorrow and decide who to drop. I know Chavez is rated higher but do you like him ROS a lot more than Walker and Duffy?
@Eric B: Nah not a lot, and there is concern he could lose his spot – but he had that concern a lot of last year and held onto it. I like seeing what Chavez does tonight too
@JB Gilpin: Agreed, think i’ll check out Chavez tonight. If he does well I’ll hold, if not may add Duffy. Thanks again man!
@Eric B: Chavez looked real good, Pax had me worried early but settled down. Now the tough part…Hold Walker or add Duffy in his place? Walker will probably get picked up so I got to be sure lol.
Also what do you think about Oswald Arcia, worth stashing over Corbin or Moore on the DL?
Finally my roster is below, would you drop a bat to add Duffy? Garcia and Lawrie are probably my bottom two bats. But with Alexi struggling I’m using Semien at SS making Lawrie my main back up for 2nd and 3rd.
( 5×5 HTH OBP league)
Bench Avisail Garcia
DL C Yan Gomes
Bench RP Perkins
Bench SP Fiers
Bench SP Chavez
@Eric B: Hah, we gotta move it down below!
Remind me if you have a starts or innings limit, because if you do you can keep riding Walker on the bench. If not or you’re way behind I think I would go Duffy.
Gimme Arcia in DL over Moore.
Nah, seems like you’ve had good pitching options come off the wire, I’d keep your O
Im in a 20 team H2H (8 player keeper) (R,HR,TB,RBI,BB,SB,AVG) \ (K,QS,W,SV,HD,ERA,WHIP)
We use 4 OF, 1 UTIL. My eligible OF are L. Martin, Span, Pagan, Marisnick, Pillar, M. Taylor. I use Cron or Pillar in my UTIL spot and also have Espinosa on the bench to spell Utley and sometimes use Espinosa over Utley lately. Few guys on the FA list that I would like to go out and get include Bourjos, B. Burns, C. Taylor and possibly even N. Swisher to rotate him and Cron at UTIL. My goal is to trade a few OF’s possibly Span and Pagan or one of each and Utley or Espinosa for a SP. My question then is what type of pitcher can I expect back in return for them? As I am writing this I am looking over teams for a potential fit and I know that is the most important thing to determine before making offers but your answers would also help in my decisions a little more.
@Allen: I’d look for the mid-tier underperformers right now. Someone like Paxton I think would be a great target and I think he’s going to be great. Maybe even move up to Carrasco who has moved slow. But anyone within that range for my ranks – especially guys who have started slow – would be a good start
only offer ive gotten so far is Anibal Sanchez for both Span and Pagan. I think thats way too little for what I am giving up.
@Allen: Yeah me too… Maybe shoot for the stars for Kluber haha
Shoemaker two starts v. SEA v. HOU or Fiers v. LAD? 10 team roto and I’d prefer a better ERA/WHIP more than strikeouts
@McNulty: I’m leaning Shoemaker there, worried the dodgers bats won’t miss Fiers this time
is Cole Hamels a buy low target? Him walk rate is concerning.
@Josh: Yeah I think so, I mean he’s been solid for this long… Think he needs a change of scenery though, which seems inevitable this yr
Great info as usual. Weekly league, 2 start Greene or go with the reliever Cecil?
@Tyson: Ohhhh that’s a good one. I’ll lean Greene
Sup JB.. I love ya brother.. your a smart and great writer but I have no understanding on your new top 100. Are you ranking them just cause of their names or performances of this year? I don’t understand. How do you have Cluber before Harvey, Cueto, Archer or Cole?? I have Cluber and not those guys and still feel this way. Your saying if you had any of those pitchers I mentioned, You would trade them for Cluber?? I’m sorry I’m not trying to be rude but I honor and go by your rankings but it’s hard to trust from what I just mentioned. When you answer the question please tell me why… Thanks Buddy
@Frank White: These are rest of season rankings. So throw out what has happened so far, and only look at what is going to happen the rest of the way. Yup, I would trade any of them 1-for-1 for Kluber.
mgon has a career 3.39 era and a 1.24 whip across 3+ seasons pitching in the AL East. I don’t think it’s smoke and mirrors.
@Quimmy: “Smoke and mirrors” vs. “decent and should regress a tad to go back to decency” I think would be my argument there. I don’t think he’s Nick Martinez for example, I don’t think he’ll blow up but should go downhill just a smidge
Is Frias worth giving a shot to? Chris young? I’m desperate for ratio help.
@nelson: I’d rather Frias, Young I think is going bac to the bullpen with venture and Volquez back off suspensions. Not a huge fan though
What are your thoughts on these nubies JB?
think Folty or Colombe could crack the top 100?
@nightpandas: Folt can never harness control and Colome I don’t think is assured a role although Cobb had a setback… Colome is definitely closer
Ervin Santana or Corbin a better stash?
@nelson: Hmmmmm that’s a good one. I’ll lean Santana since I’m guessing he’s keeping his arm healthy right now
Who concerns you more ROY – Samardzija or Zimmermann? Was thinking of packaging one of the two with another arm to target Chris Sale (who also has issues of his own early on).
@jc3bagger: I think Zimmermann scares me more with the lower velo. Love Zimmermann + not too much for Sale if you can make that work!
Hi JB – Great Work as always!
Thoughts on where Jarrod Parker might end up on this list around the AS Break? He pitched 4 innings in AAA yesterday and looks like he might return to the rotation by the end of the month. Do you think he is a good stash?
@Maver1ck: Thanks man! Ehhh, I’ve never been a Parker fan and he’s off the double TJ. Really depends on how he looks early on, I doubt he’d get into the 70s by then
I’ve been trying to trade mccutch ever since I heard of his knee issues in spring. I traded him and got back d’arnaud, samardzija, rodon and gardner. Rodon is 19th rd keeper potential. In 2 weeks my 3 OF plus 1 Util spot will be Puig, Pence, Betts then util either Reddick/Gardner/Teixeira. Rotation is Scherzer, Carrasco, Zimmermann, Salazar, Samardzija, Rodon, Shelby Miller. SO my question is. Any samardzija worries? Do you think the trade was decent? (Noone wanted mccutcg in my league besides 1 guy) and i have 1 more streaming spot I’d like to turn into a roster spot. Pick up matz, syndergaard or marco gonzo?
@scott steelers: Nah I’m not too worried about Shark. I mean, when one game is a bad one in that really odd “not open to public” game, I don’t blame him. In a deep keeper like that, I actually think it’s a decent trade. About even indeed. I’d likely stash Syndergaard, I’m pumped for his prospects
Reports on Jose Fernandez sound even rosier than your typical returning-from-long-injury-layoff guys. Think he returns before July? Any thoughts on what a full second half might look like?
@Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: I doubt they rush him, so I’m leaning no. But a second half I do expect maybe 80% of peak Jo-Fer which is still really really good
Gargantuan effort, man. Many thanks. Never was a fan of Gonazalez. Mostly b/c of home park etc. Guess he has to leave to be good.
Start Mchugh, Liriano and /or Fiers over any of Odorizzi, Ross and / or Shoemaker for this week?
@Ante GALIC: Thanks man! Yup these are big but I have fun doing em. I would almost always McHugh over Shoemaker, I don’t know their schedules though, is Shoe 2-game?
Yup, you nailed it. He’s just a guy. I’ve seen him enough and really, there’s nothing to see here but an average pitcher. Glad you broke it down though. When Grey alluded to you having your next write up about him, I was hoping you weren’t buying it!
Still have Quintana there huh? I need reliable ratio help. Would your rankings change out of Q, Bauer, Chase, T-Wood, strictly looking at ERA/WHIP? Bauer scares the piss out of more than Wood.
@Cram It: thanks man! Grey suckered me into it, I think he is hypnotizing me… Yeah since Ks wouldn’t be as big an issue I would move Wood and Chase up but still leaning Bauer. I get the scare-dom though haha
Miguel Gonzalez or Jesse Hahn
@Tom Caliendo: I’m still going Hahn, but as you can see in the ranks, they’re very very close to me
Good stuff, JB! Glad to see a breakdown of Miggy G. It’s a classic case of the means not justifying the ends, but the ends are there so who cares about the means (I believe that’s an Oliver North quote).
@Grey: Thanks man! That North quote doth apply, but henceforth he could tarry like Gee! (or something like that…)
Where does Syndergaard move if he’s called up (What tier would you put him in)? Or is this ranking his projection for the ROS?
@Steve: This is his ROS ranking, so I’m imaging he’s up in another month or two. If it happened today, he would be right near Rodon, maybe a few lower
Unlocator (dawt) com. That’s all I’m sayin.
@SabathiaWouldBeGoodAtTheEighthToo: Damn, you may have just opened my eyes where whence I was blind! I had no idea about this!
Look forward to this article every week, JB.
Drop Greene for Paxton or Rodon?
@Harrison Ford in Air Force One: Thanks man! And may I say, you were the shizz in Air Force One! I would def do it for Pax!
Garrett Richards has 10 walks on the year… Anything to worry about or rust from the injury/small sample size?
@Rob: I think it’s mostly rust, definitely something I’m keeping an eye on but not reacting too much to