Coors really must be messing with Lance Lynn‘s pricing today. I mean, I know Lynn isn’t Max Scherzer by any means but facing the Rockies away from Colorado can sure make you seem like it. And actually, here’s the most perplexing part of Lynn’s $14,800 price tag: the Rockies haven’t been good anywhere this year. Rockies at home? They’ve got the fifth worst wRC+ there…the Padres have better home numbers than these guys! The scary thing is, it actually gets worse on the road where they’re 3rd in wRC+ while also giving us a 24.2% K rate. If you need further proof, Leake threw 7 shutout innings against these guys last night, K’ing 6. Leake’s K/9 is 6.04 this year…and Lynn’s is 7.93. Giddy up! In all, Lynn in both cash and tourneys today should be just fine. Now that we’re done with that, let’s get on with this. Here’s my scorching hot summer taeks for this Tuesday FD slate…
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Charlie Morton, SP: $17,100 – In my opinion, Madison Bumgarner and Jamison Taillon are both fine and dandy, but I don’t think you need to pay up for either (though MadBum’s price is a discount; I’d take him as my one in cash). Today’s the kind of day that offers a bevy of cheap arms that are a) in a good spot, b) better than their price tag, or c) both. I’d say Morton is in that ‘a’ spot. The Phillies are a team that have played well of late, but at this price I don’t mind seeing if the wheels start coming off. Solid tourney arm if you wanna hang at this price.
Felix Hernandez, SP: $16,000 – The Red Sox offense has been stuck at the All-Star Break and Hernandez is coming in hot with 3 straight QS and 22 Ks in 18 IP of work. King Felix has been on a roll of late and I want on that ciabatta.
Seth Lugo, SP: $15,200 – Lugo has also been on a roll of late and I want in on that…eh…that blaa? Had to google, it’s actually a roll and actually a great fitting roll name to describe Seth. Either way, he gets the Padres. Sometimes things are too obvious.
Kenta Maeda, SP: $15,200 – Like I said, no reason to pay up today. Maeda may not get the QS, but I think the win will be a breeze and the Ks are sure to follow.
Jordan Montgomery, SP: $11,200 – You don’t even need this discount, but I have to point it out anyway. The Reds have been in a tailspin of late and are pretty mediocre against southpaws overall. If you find yourself left with cash at the end of roster construction, don’t be surprised. This is a pretty loose night.
Freddie Freeman, IF: $10,400 – He’s slowed down a bit since his return from injury, but he’s still a Home Run hitting beast. Walker is still learning the ropes at home this year, giving up a .396 wOBA to lefties there along with a 1.46 HR/9 against them overall. Consider this a wink and a nudge on Matt Adams at $7,500 as well.
Adrian Beltre, IF: $7,600 – Speaking of flyball pitchers…there couldn’t be a better home park for Dan Straily to call home than Marlins Park…well there, COULD – AT&T – but all I mean to say is Straily enjoys a 2.82 ERA at home and a 4.27 ERA on the road and it’s clear why as his HR/9 nearly doubles. A hot, humid night in Texas should do the Rangers wonders. Feel free to load up on Texas bats like Shin-Soo Choo, Mike Napoli, and Carlos Gomez.
Aaron Judge, OF: $10,500 – What, you thought he was gonna hit 100 HRs? I know, at times it seemed like he would. Nevertheless, Judge leads the league in home wRC+ at 242. Not impressed? The next closest guy is Charlie Blackmon at 196. There, now I see you’re impressed. In fact, let’s just establish a mini-Yankee stack while we’re here. Gimme Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorious while we’re here as Luis Castillo gets introduced to a hitters park with a DH.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $9,200 – If you don’t know how good Stanton has been since the All-Star Break, you shouldn’t be playing this game. A lock in cash.
Khris Davis, OF: $9,200 – With a lefty on the mound in Toronto, everyone was on Davis like flies on rice. Lots of loud, hard outs came from the Oakland bats in general yesterday, but Davis almost got into one. Today would be a fine day to go back to the well and roll out some Athletics. Feel free to look Ryon Healy and Marcus Semien’s way.
Andrew McCutchen, OF: $8,100 – Yes, I know, it’s MadBum, but McCutchen is has the 6th best wRC+ against lefties on the year at 186. Just because the game could end 1-0 doesn’t mean it can’t be a solo shot by The Pirate formerly known as Dread.
Derek Fisher, OF: $6,000 – Was recalled today and gets a nice park to show the Astros what they’ve been missing since they sent him back down and made me waste a roster spot in my keeper league waiting for them to pull their heads out of their butts…but hey, enough about me, let’s talk about Derek. He good! Ok, now we’re done.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The only threatening place looks to be Philly, but aren’t we used to Philly being kinda threatening? I keed, weather looks noice today, really noice.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As you can probably tell from the pitching selections, there aren’t many big dogs on the slate. The best line on the day goes to the Dodgers at -180 and is followed by the Indians and Yankees sitting at -165. Surprising to see such a weak line for Lynn at -122, but the game has also stepped down by a half run to 8.5. Though I’d love to get a win from Lance, I’m ok with a QS and a ton of Ks. Surprisingly, it’s not an overly offensive looking night by comparison to other slates. The big O/Us belong to TEXvsMIA at 10.5 and AZvsATL/WASvsMIL coming in at 10. If you’re looking for shelter from those runs, the probably obvious place is a 7 between two mediocre to bad offenses facing very good pitchers: SFvsPIT.