Great Sunday to you, Sunday Brunchers. Try to keep those hats on.
We have ten games on the FanDuel Main Slate today, and almost all will be significantly effected by wind. Let us hope we can break this wind together. Let’s crop dust the rest of the field and use the wind to our advantage.
In each of these games wind should provide a great advantage to hitters, given the speed, direction, and air density. Any pitcher with a poor fly ball to ground ball ratio or who relies on movement or deception to induce weak contact should be faded or avoided entirely:
• Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians, wind at 18 to 21 mph to center, positive VMI for hitters, temps in the mid 80’s
• Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies, wind at 12 mph to left/center, temps in the 80’s
• Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, wind to left at 16 mph gives a bump to right handed hitters
• Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, wind to left at 17 mph bumps right handed hitters
• Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox, wind to left/center at 15 mph
• Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, wind to left at 12 mph
• St. Louis Cardinals at Texas Rangers, wind to right at 9 mph, temps in the 80’s
Games with more room for error than usual for pitchers:
• Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves, wind in from right at 10 mph counter the usual positive hitting conditions in Atlanta
• Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers, wind in from right at 16 to 18 mph and light rain to end the game counter otherwise positive hitting conditions in Detroit
• New York Mets at Miami Marlins, wind in from center at 11 mph, matters only if roof is open
So, how can we use the wind to wind up winned? Continue reading below for the best picks of the day.
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Noah Syndergaard, SP: $10,400 – Of the pitchers in favorable conditions today, the clear favorite is Syndergaard. He boasts the dominant stuff and historically weak opponent to have a monster game. We should have full confidence playing him, knowing duds will happen from time to time even in these best of circumstances. Everything in DFS is probabilistic, nothing is guaranteed. That said, this is as guaranteed. Or at least as guaranteed as it gets. Monster game.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP: $6,300 – Pronounced full-tee-new-eye-sees, Foltynewicz is on a dangerous decent toward negative points land, going 21, 17, 9, 2 in his first four starts this season. We do not care about stupid trends, though, we care about probable outcomes for this game, and Milwaukee has a fairly high strikeout rate, and conditions favor pitching, so we think he has a decent chance of bouncing back here. Think of him as a high risk value play.
Brandon Woodruff, SP $8,600 – Quality starts in each of his last two games, though five walks last game is a point of concern. Play him in more favorable than usual pitching conditions in Atlanta.
Because we have an abundance of positive hitting environments let’s focus on stacks here, rather than go position by position. The reason we want to play players from the same team is to benefit from the positive correlation of teammates’ successful at bats. Successful at bats equal points, lead to more times through the order, and more opportunity for points, plus hitting in a teammate means points for both hitters in one at bat. Stacking is not required for success, but it can be a convenient short cut to achieve the high variance lineup production we want in tournaments.
St. Louis Cardinals – Highest implied run total of the slate, and in a hitting environment far more favorable than their usual, so there is value in abundance. Order of preference: Yairo Munoz, SS: $2,000, Jedd Gyorko, 3B: $2,100, Matt Carpenter, 3B: $3,500, Harrison Bader, OF: $2,500, Paul DeJong, SS: $4,000, Paul Goldschmidt, C/1B: $3,900, Marcell Ozuna, OF: $4,300
Cleveland Indians – Second highest implied run total on the slate. The only reason they potentially do not reach full value is Cashner’s ability to keep the ball on the ground at an above average clip. Not really concerning, though. Order of preference: Carlos Gonzalez, OF: $2,400, Jose Ramirez, 3B: $3,200, Jason Kipnis, 2B: $2,600, Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,600, Jake Bauers, C/1B: $2,600
Boston Red Sox – Wind to left vs. a left handed pitcher. Sign us up for every Boston righty. Order of preference: J.D. Martinez, OF: $4,400, Eduardo Nunez, 2B: $2,000, Mookie Betts, OF: $4,300, Steve Pearce, C/1B: $2,100, Michael Chavis, 2B: $3,700
Philadelphia Phillies – Same as in Boston, wind to left vs. a left handed pitcher. Order of preference: Andrew McCutchen, OF: $3,600, Maikel Franco, 3B: $2,900, Rhys Hoskins, C/1B: $4,300, Nick Williams, OF: $2,000, Sean Rodriguez, SS: $2,500
Toronto Blue Jays – Wind to left favors righties in what is already one of the most favorable ballparks for homeruns to left. Order of preference: Randal Grichuk, OF: $3,000, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B: $3,000, Billy McKinney, OF: $2,400, Brandon Drury, 2B: $2,300
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No real risk of PPDs today, though rain chances in Detroit and Cincinnati pick up throughout the game. Something to consider when rostering SP in either of those games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Baltimore at Cleveland and Milwaukee at Atlanta both carry an over/under of 9.5, but the average outcome for these games should not be the same. The under should hit more often than not in Atlanta, the over far more often in Cleveland.
