Finally Friday! FanDuel has us set up with a huge 14-game slate, and for once this week, we look to be in the clear on the precipitation front. Can we talk about just how much an ace Luis Castillo ($10,500) has been? He’s sporting a 30.3% K%, which is supported by his massive 14.9% swinging strike rate. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he probably doesn’t maintain his 1.97 ERA all year, but his 3.51 SIERA is solid. Finally, on the batted ball front his ground ball rate is 57.8%, which leads the league. Add to his greatness, that he gets the perfect matchup against the Giants in Oracle Park. Now you know that Luis Castillo’s my go-to starter in cash games today, so let’s take a look at some other plays on today’s FanDuel slate.
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Justin Verlander, SP: $11,300 – Mr. Ace is certainly not cheap and has a tougher matchup with the Rangers, who have the second highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but Verlander is as consistent as they come.
Zack Wheeler, SP: $9,200 – Wheeler finally started to regain some of that late-2018 magic, having 10 or more Ks in two of his last three games. He also gets a matchup with the Marlins, who are last in the league in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Frankie Montas, SP: $8,500 – Montas has been off to a hot start and has an increased strikeout rate (21.1%), which is supported by his also increased swinging strike rate (10.8%). Today, he gets a matchup against the Indians, who have the fourth-worst wOBA against right-handed pitching. *Note: Keep an eye on this game. ESPN and FantasyLabs have Montas as the starter, but no lines are out in Vegas and they have “undecided” for their starting pitcher.
J.T. Realmuto, C: $3,200 – The Phillies have an awesome matchup against Homer Bailey, so I’m ready to stack them up. But (of course, there’s a but) they’re all super expensive, except Realmuto. He’s relatively affordable and should be lower owned due to not having to roster a catcher.
Justin Smoak, 1B: $3,400 – Is today the day that the Blue Jays score some runs? Maybe. They get a great matchup against Dylan Covey, who has allowed a .355 wOBA against lefties and .346 wOBA against righties.
Chris Davis, 1B: $2,300 – I know, I know, he’s not $500 anymore and he’s still only batting .176, but there’s legit upside in Davis. He has a 53.9% hard-hit rate against righties this year and faces Trevor Cahill, who’s been getting crushed by left-handed batters.
Jonathan Villar, 2B: $3,500 – Villar against right-handed pitching since the beginning of season: .359 wOBA, and against left-handed pitching: .213 wOBA.
Garrett Hampson, 2B: $2,500 – Cheap righty in Coors against a lefty! Hampson’s plate skills are intact and arguably better than last season, having a 20.7% O-Swing% (league average is 30.0%).
Tommy La Stella, 3B: $3,100 – Following La Stella’s two-homer day yesterday, I suppose I’ll just throw my hands up and play him until he cools down.
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., 3B: $2,500 – Today’s the day! Great matchup for Vladito.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,400 – Like Trout, the Red Sox are also in a smash spot today. They get a matchup in Fenway against Erik Swanson, who has a 16.7% K% and 4.85 SIERA. Most of the Red Sox bats are priced up though, so good luck fitting them in.
Nelson Cruz, OF: $3,900 – Cruz faces Tyson Ross, who has strong reverse-splits to open the season, allowing a .230 ISO and .424 wOBA to right-handed batters. Oh, Nelson Cruz is a big man who crushes righties!
Gregory Polanco, OF: $3,100 – Polanco looks healthy again, so take advantage of it while it lasts.
Alex Verdugo, OF: $2,900 – Verdugo’s finally getting regular plate appearances and he’s not disappointing, putting up a .374 wOBA against righties, while only striking out 8.7%.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Possible light rain in the Orioles/Angels game, but praise the lord of baseball, nothing threatening today. The only major wind is in Boston, where winds are blowing out to left at 12 miles per hour, so give a small bump up to bats there.
Doing Lines In Vegas
There are a couple of massive favorites on today’s slate in the Astros -260, Twins -230, Red Sox -210, Dodgers -210, and Mets -196, so slight bump up to those starting pitchers for the potential win. There are also three games with a double-digit run total at 10 in Rockies/Padres, Orioles/Angels, and Red Sox/Mariners.