Jacob deGrom. That almost says it all. Sure, he’s 2-4 with a 3.60 ERA this year on the whole. But in the month of May he is back to his dazzling self: 1.24 ERA, 13 Ks, 3 BB in 14 innings. And if that wasn’t enough, he’s toeing the rubber against the 30th ranked run scoring team in the majors. Not only are the Florida Marlins the 30th ranked offense, they’re a full 20 runs behind the 29th ranked Detroit Tigers. That’s worse than the lazy plot devices going on in Game of Thrones! The Marlins are so bad, and deGrom is so good, the Mets are favored at -410. A whole season goes by and you don’t see a line like that. He’s expensive ($11,300), but there is no surer thing on FanDuel this year than deGrom against the Marlins. Of course, there’s more than one way to skin a FanDuel lineup, so on to the picks.
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Marcus Stroman, SP: $8,000 – Stroman has had a couple of hickups lately, but he’s still sporting a 2.96 ERA with 8.1 K/9. And he’s facing the Chicago White Sox, who are 20th in runs scored and hit a combined .200 off Stroman in their careers. There are two other factors in Stoman’s favor: He’s at home, where he has a 2.22 ERA, and it’s a day game (3pm start). Why does that matter? He has a 1.59 ERA during the day.
Rick Porcello, SP: $8,600 – Some will see the 5.37 ERA and look elsewhere. Don’t be one of those people. First, at home, where he’s facing off against the Seattle Mariners, he has a 3.00 ERA. Second, he’s averaging 6 2/3 innings over his last three starts. Third, Dee Gordon, who hits Porcello at a .429 clip, will most likely be out of the lineup after getting hit by a pitch on the wrist on Thursday. It also helps that the Red Sox offense, which was 20th in the league in runs scored on April 21st, is now 12th and rising fast.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $3,900 – Goldy has gone 10-20 against Jordan Lyles of the Pirates, with a 2b, 3b and Home Run in his career. He’s got 9 homers this year, and should give the home town Cardinals fans a reason to cheer today.
Mark Reynolds, 1b: $3,300 – Daniel Murphy has been struggling, which should give Reynolds the chance to face off against lefty Joey Lucchesi of the Padres at home in Colorado. It’s no surprise that Reynolds has a .929 OPS at home. If he’s starting, he’s worth it, and the lower price will be necessary if you’re going with deGrom.
Michael Chavis, 2b: $3,700 – Chavis has been on a tear since he arrived in Boston, and is facing the artist formally known as King Felix. Felix Hernandez has a 5.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and ripe for another moonshot from Chavis. He’s hitting .333 at home, with a 1.092 OPS to boot.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $5,000 – Not only does Arenado punish Lucchesi to a .385 average and 1.126 OPS in 13 career at bats, but he’s scorching hot at .476 over his last 7 games. He’s at home and going against a mediocre lefty. It doesn’t get better than that.
Tommy La Stella, 3B: $3,500 – La Stella is averaging 10.41 points per game on FanDuel, and gets to hammer away in the hitter’s haven of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. He’s facing Dylan Bundy, who has yet to put it together with a 5.30 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. A top end dart throw on today’s slate.
Trevor Story, SS: $4,800 – Can you tell the Rockies are the highest rated offense today? Everything that goes for Arenado above goes for Story. He’s not quite as hot as Arenado, but has a .951 OPS at home, and is hitting .326 this year against lefties like Lucchesi.
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $2,600 – This is the ultimate bottom of the roster filler, but he has gone 4-12 with a Home Run in his career off Felix Hernandez, and has managed a steal in the last few games, to go along with a bunt hit or two. His defense keeps him in the lineup
Franmil Reyes, OF: $3,600 – This Padres rookie has opened a lot of eyes. He’s boomed a couple homers in the last few days, and has a .912 OPS against right handers like Jon Gray. He’ll fit into any lineup today.
J.D. Martinez, OF $4,000 – He’s the linchpin the to resurgent Red Sox lineup, he’s powering up lately, and he’s hit .500 against King Felix. The Red Sox are the second highest rated offense today and he’s a big reason why.
Raimel Tapia, OF $3,300 – Oh no he didn’t! Yup, another Rockie against Lucchesi at home. Tapia is hitting .353 in the last 7, .333 at home, .429 against the Padres. He’s getting the day off on Friday so will be fresh.
Other Cheap Options: In light of a deGrom lineup, if these guys are starting they can be further cheap options with upside in Colorado – Manuel Margot, Ian Kinsler, Ty France, Austin Hedges, Tony Wolters.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is some light rain in Baltimore but it shouldn’t last. Otherwise it’s a beautiful day for Baseball!
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