Cincinnati Reds are squaring off vs. the measly Ty Blach of the San Francisco Giants, stacking the Reds could prove to have a good return on investment. Blach is carrying a very pedestrian 2.18 K/9. Meanwhile, the Reds are one of the hardest teams to strikeout in the MLB. He already got lit up against them last week (3 IP, 11 hits ,8 ER), so batters like Joey Votto ($4,500), Zach Cozart ($3,300), Adam Duvall ($3,700) and Eugenio Suarez ($3,300) should all be on your radar. Now lets take a look at the rest of the picks.
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Eduardo Rodriguez, P: $7,300 – Has been pitching pretty well as of late and now gets the Milwaukee Brewers who are top 3 in the league in strikeouts. Rodriguez has a 11.35 K/9 so far this season; if he can limit the homerun ball, he should be able to rack up some points. The Brewers do present a tough matchup, but the opportunity for a double-digit strikeout game is very intriguing.
Jason Vargas, P: $8,800 – One of these days he will go back to being the Jason Vargas of old, but in the mean time lets ride the hot hand. He gets a very good matchup in the Tampa Bay Rays; they are one of the worst hitting ball clubs vs. LHP (.232 AVG. and .713 OPS). Vargas has really limited the long ball this season allowing .24 HR/9, and is almost averaging a strikeout per inning. Also, the Rays lead the MLB in strikeouts by a large margin.
Michael Pineda, P: $8,600 – No pitcher in baseball has a better percentage of fewest pitches thrown while behind in the count (15% of pitches). That is always a huge advantage for pitchers if they can get ahead of the batter, so it’s no surprise as to why his K/9 is sitting at 11.16. He gets the Houston Astros at home, “at home” being the key words. He has a 1.35 ERA at Yankee Stadium opposed to a 5.35 ERA on the road.
Robinson Chirinos, C: $3,000 – Chirinos has 5 HRs in 34ABs; that would put him in a tie for third highest this season for catchers. He is also hitting .294 in those ABs and racking up some counting stats with 10Runs and 11RBIs. If he gets the start tonight, he has a great matchup vs. Jhoulys Chacin.
Jose Abreu, 1B: $3,800 – The Big Cubano has been on fire over the last two weeks (5 HRS with a 1.261 OPS). With Phil Hughes taking the mound for Minnesota, he should add to those numbers.
DJ LaMahieu, 2B: $3,400 – Very low price for a defending batting champ and a home game in Coors. He is hitting .341 vs. LHP this season and should be locked in to his normal #2 spot in the lineup.
Manny Machado, 3B: $3,800 – Did the Boston Red Sox wake up the sleeping giant? He has been crushing the ball since his whole incident with 5 HRs over his last 15 games. An Orioles stack would be a good idea vs. AJ Cole.
Tim Beckham, SS: $2,900 – The former number one pick is finally showing some signs of life, hitting .270 with 4 HRs and a .870 OPS over his last 15 games. The matchup vs. Vargas isn’t great, but he is too hot at the moment not to play, especially at that price.
Seth Smith, OF: $3,100 – The RHP killer has a juicy matchup vs AJ Cole tonight; the Orioles should be able to put up some runs in this game.
Mark Trumbo, OF: $3,500 – It only took a month for Trumbo to finally realize the season had started, but he is finally starting to find his Homerun King stroke from 2016. Has homered twice over his last seven game and has an OPS near .900. As mentioned earlier, it is a plus matchup.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $3,600 – Has been batting leadoff for the Texas Rangers lately and making the most of his opportunities. Over the last 15 games he is batting .277 with 3 HRS and .924 OPS. The matchup vs. Chacin isn’t a scary one as a slugfest is expected in Texas.
I’m Only Happy When it Rains
Looks like we have a clear day ahead with no real PPD threats. BAL/WAS has a 20% chance of rain so that is a game to monitor.
Doing Lines in Vegas
On a day were there are no clear favorites, a couple games stand out to me. The Kansas City Royals are list at +125, that is good value with the way Jason Vargas has been pitching this year. Dylan Bundy has lived up to his top prospect status from a while back and has been pitching great this year, the Baltimore Orioles are -110 against AJ Cole and Washington Nationals. A pitching duel is expected between Dallas Keuchel and Michael Pineda in the Bronx; the run line is 7.5. Game with the highest O/U is the TEX/SDP game with the line is at 9.5. That’s a matchup between Martin Perez and Jhoulys Chacin.
