Today is the first day of the rest of our lives, so let’s play some DFS.
We have seven games on the FanDuel Main Slate today, with Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, and Masahiro Tanaka leading the way as our top pitching options. The weather looks perfect where these games will be played, so fire up the grill, crack open a beverage, and let’s get to it.
Read on for our picks, and enjoy the day t0day, DFSers.
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Shane Bieber, SP: $10,600. This is a risky suggestion, because the Twins strike out at a well below average rate, have hit the most home runs in the league, and are playing in Cleveland, where home runs are easier to come by, especially for lefties, than at Target Field. All that said, he is pitching well, and has shown the potential to pitch well against this Twins lineup, scoring 48 points against them on June 4th.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $8,100. Believe it or not, Yankee Stadium is playing very pitcher-friendly this season, after being solidly hitter-friendly in years past. Tanaka is one of the primary benefactors of this, with wide home/road splits in every meaningful category. Let’s keep this in mind when constructing our lineups, as many will likely want to avoid him coming off his recent struggles. Working against us is the temperature in the 90’s and wind blowing out to right.
Favorite lucky stacks:
Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays face a likely bullpen game vs. the Orioles at Camden Yards. Camden Yards is the second most hitter friendly park for home runs, third in overall runs scored, in the majors this year. Ipso facto, ergo sum, stack the Rays. Order of preference: Kevin Kiermaier, OF: $2,900, Austin Meadows, OF: $3,500, Tommy Pham, OF: $3,700, Nate Lowe, C/1B: $2,900, Avisail Garcia, OF: $3,100, Yandy Diaz, 3B: $3,300, Willy Adames, SS: $2,500
Washington Nationals – Citizens Bank Park has been less of a boon for home run hitters this season than recently – it was number one overall for home runs in 2017, for instance – but the potential for a bonanza is there today against Arrieta, who is bothered by a marble-sized bone spur on his elbow, and has not been anything near his dominant peak. Order of preference: Trea Turner, SS: $3,900, Brian Dozier, 2B: $2,600, Anthony Rendon, 3B: $4,100, Adam Eaton, OF: $3,000, Juan Soto, OF: $3,900, Ryan Zimmerman, C/1B: $2,700
San Francisco Giants – One of the best ways to extract value out of our lineups is to look for situations where players are in a more favorable than usual hitting environments. This is why stacking teams in Colorado tends to work. Player salaries do not adjust quickly enough to account for the expected production increase. Today we see this potential with left handed power hitting Giants at Miller Park. They have moved from the worst park in the league for home runs to right to one of the best. To top it off these lefties are facing Jhoulys Chacin, who has historically struggled vs LHB, though he has showed less of this tendency so far this season. Order of preference: Brandon Belt, C/1B: $3,200, Stephen Vogt, C/1B: $2,100, Mike Yastrzemski, OF: $2,800, Brandon Crawford, SS: $2,400, Alex Dickerson, OF: $3,200, Joe Panik, 2B: $2,600, Pablo Sandoval, 3B: $2,500
Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers face Tyler Beede, who had his best start of the season in his most recent outing, July 2nd in San Diego. Order of preference: Mike Moustakas, 3B: $3,700, Yasmani Grandal, C/1B: $3,200, Christian Yelich, OF: $4,800, Eric Thames, C/1B: $2,800, Ryan Braun, OF: $3,000, Lorenzo Cain, OF: $3,000, Keston Hiura, 2B: $3,100
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Lovely weather for baseball today, with conditions generally favoring hitting over pitching other than Chicago, with the wind coming in off the lake at Wrigley (not enough to have an effect on lineup choices, though).
Doing Lines In Vegas
The run total in Milwaukee is currently at 10, but the San Fran lefties should be able to get to Chacin, and the Brewers should be able to feast on Beede. Look for the over to hit more often than not.