Welcome to the weekend! FanDuel has us set up with a full 15-game slate, so there’s a lot to comb through. I feel like every week I sit here and recommend picking on the Marlins. Well, who am I to break tradition, so let’s talk about Jacob deGrom ($12,000) who faces said Marlins. deGrom has a 33.0% strikeout rate to go along with his 3.09 SIERA. The Marlins, on the other hand, are dead last in wOBA and ISO versus right-handed pitching and have a 27.1% K%, which is second worst in the league. I know deGrom is pricy, so for my bat recommendations I’ll try and focus on affordable bats on FanDuel, but first a word from our sponsors.
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Max Scherzer, SP: $10,800 – There’s a pretty clear break between deGrom and everyone else. Scherzer comes with a nice discount, but also a tough opponent in the Cubs.
Frankie Montas, SP: $8,800 – Montas has a much-improved slider, which has helped him increase his strikeout rate and has a solid 3.83 SIERA. Today he faces the Tigers, who have the leagues second-worst wOBA and third-worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Joey Lucchesi, SP: $6,200 – This comes with a huge warning sign. I’m not a Lucchesi guy, but the Pirates are sneaky awful against left-handed pitching. The Pirates are dead last in ISO, second-worst in wOBA, and fifth-worst in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. So, do you feel lucky punk? Well, do ya?
Max Muncy, 1B: $2,800 – Muncy and the Dodgers face Anthony DeSclafani today and while DeSclafani has had a decent bounce back, he’s still struggling against left-handed batters, giving up a .239 ISO and .388 wOBA.
Mark Reynolds, 1B: $2,400 – Sure, this isn’t in Coors, but facing a mediocre lefty, Cole Irvin, in Citizens Bank Park should work out OK too.
Chris Davis, 1B: $2,300 – I’ve only seen a handful of apology letters so far, but I think he’s owed a lot more with how he’s been hitting the ball. Davis has a 51.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed batters and Jefry Rodriguez only strikes out 15.0% of the batters he’s faced. The Orioles might be one of my favorite cheap stacks today.
Mark Canha, 1B: $2,300 – Fresh off the IL and facing a mediocre lefty. Canha’s just too cheap.
Jonathan Villar, 2B: $2,900 – Villar will bat leadoff for the Orioles and at this salary is a must play.
Jason Kipnis, 2B: $2,800 – The Indians face Dylan Bundy and there’s a 69% chance we get the bad Bundy and a 29% chance we get the good Bundy. The other 2% is for unseen events, like delays due to swarming bees on the field.
Nicky Lopez, 2B: $2,600 – The Royals get a matchup with Matt Harvey, but for the most part, the Royals bats are really expensive. Lopez should hit second in today’s lineup, which gives you a cheap piece of a good lineup.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $4,400 – I can’t have them all be cheap. Arenado is my favorite pay up option. Being outside of Coors should keep his ownership down some.
Matt Chapman, 3B: $3,800 – The Athletics are another stack that I really like, but will probably end up picking and choosing the cheap pieces from. If I can afford him though, I love Chapman in this spot. Daniel Norris has been so meh and the bullpen that will follow him is awful.
Matt Carpenter, 3B: $3,200 – As of this writing, the Rangers appear to be going with a bullpen game. Someone should probably tell them they have the leagues worst SIERA and lowest K% amongst bullpens, right?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B: $3,100 – File this one under the play him while he’s cheap because he won’t be cheap for long. Especially on days that he faces Ivan Nova.
Marcus Semien, SS: $3,300 – Semien is one of those cheaper Athletics bats and I’m locking him in if he’s leading off today.
Brendan Rodgers, SS: $2,500 – Top end prospect that kinda got overlooked in the flurry that was prospect week. Part of that Rockies facing a mediocre lefty stack.
Khris Davis, OF: $3,700 – Khris Davis finally looks healthy again and today he gets a ballpark upgrade, faces a mediocre lefty, and then a mediocre bullpen. Sounds like decent homer conditions to me.
Joc Pederson, OF: $3,100 – Joc’s been struggling a little as of late, but still has a .444 ISO and .430 wOBA against right-handed pitching. The only thing you worry about is him being pinch hit for once they bring in a lefty to face him.
Alex Verdugo, OF: $2,800 – Verdugo’s just too cheap for a guy with a 42.4% hard-hit rate and just a 9.6% K% versus righties.
Chad Pinder, OF: $2,300 – Just another cheap bat in the Athletics stack that should help you get deGrom.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No precipitation in the forecast today, praise the baseball gods. There are a couple of spots that will be in the 80s, giving a bump to the bats in the Nationals/Cubs, Dodgers/Reds, Braves/Brewers, Rangers/Cardinals, and Giants/Diamondbacks games.
Doing Lines In Vegas
deGrom is the only super big favorite on today’s slate as a -230 favorite versus the Marlins. No games with double-digit run totals currently, but a slew of them between 9 and 9.5 featuring Reds/Dodgers, Braves/Brewers, Astros/Red Sox, and Royals/Angels at that 9.5 number. For my personal play, I’m going to that cheap Orioles team and playing the over on their team total if it’s set at 4 runs or under.
