You ready to have your mind blown? Well, maybe it won’t blow your mind but I was searching and searching on a way to tell you in the title that Nick Tropeano was a play today and then I remembered Tropeano was an Italian name. Then I was like, ‘Mariners sounds like Marinara, let’s do some wiki’ing’ and guess what I found? Marinara is literally Italian for Mariner so Spaghetti Alla Marinara literally translates to ‘Spaghetti Mariner’s style’. Literally! I can totally see your face right now. You’re welcome for reading Wikipedia to you and for explaining a title that doesn’t sound like much of a joke on the surface but once I break it down for you, it’s, like, some high brow shizz! But now I’m officially done blowing things and ready to tell you why this play won’t suck…I’m not proud of that sentence, so I’ll just move along. The Mariners have scored a lot of runs on the road so far, having the 5th highest away wRC+ in the league in an albeit small sample size. However, all of those games have come in neutral to friendly parks, especially for lefties. Well, Angels stadium actually plays tougher than Safeco for offense and is particularly unkind to lefties so far. Tropeano isn’t a guy I’d throw out there in cash tonight but if you’re getting a lot of big bats in on what looks to be a run-heavy night, his $6,100 price tag will give you plenty of budget to do so. Now let’s get on with this slate. Here’s my mama mia hot taeks for this Friday DK slate…
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Jon Lester, SP: $10,000 – I’m not out here pretending that Lester is a sneaky play; he’s your cash game SP1 for the night. Analysis done? NOPE. A night after a team gets no hit and other team scores 16 runs, you gotta Zach when others Slater…hrm, shoot, I think I got my analogies mixed up because Saved By The Bell was streaming in the background. What I was trying to say was you gotta zag when others zig when you’re doing some tourney plays. On a day when everyone will be all over the Rockies and Dodgers, what better way to fade than to be on a bunch of Cubs and Reds in a similarly good ballpark? The O/U on this game is 8.5 which is big for a game with an ace on the mound. Since I’m kinda already covering things here, let’s just say that you can pick your poison with the Reds. For me, I’ll look to the values in Brandon Phillips ($3,300) and Adam Duvall ($2,900).
Justin Verlander, SP: $8,400 – As much as I want to like Tomlin tonight, I like Verlander just a bit more. Neither team is off to a good start at the plate, but Tolmin has some reverse HR/FB splits that scare me given the right hand dominant lineup of the Tigers. The fact that Verlander’s ERA sits over 7 and Tomlin’s sits under 1 is decidedly another factor. Verlander giving you a clean 7 with around 22-26 depending on win is within reach given the opponent’s woes. And plus you can tell all your friends you scored with Verlander, just like Kate Upton says. Wait, that’s not how these brags are supposed to go…
Aaron Nola, SP: $8,300 – After his last shelling, his ERA sits at 5.68 and his xFIP sits at 2.52. Which one ya gonna believe? How ’bout if I throw in a ludicrous 50.6% left on base percentage? What about a 10.42 K/9 vs a 1.42 BB/9? Is that working for ya? Given the ballpark and the flyball rate, I do hesitate a bit on this call but the Brewers are striking out a healthy amount so far. Well, unhealthy for them but fine for you to consider Nola in cash.
Matt Moore, SP: $7,900 – Normally I’d never suggest a guy with shaky command to go against a patient Yankees lineup but then I look and see Moore is only walking 1.47 per nine right now. I believe that .47 was Jose Altuve but more to the point, Moore seemingly has solved the control issues he had in the past and is mowing people down as he as he’s got a 10+ K/9 to go with the sterling walk rate. Could it all fall apart today? Sure. Could we get more from Moore than many are expecting. YAASSS.
Martin Perez, SP: $6,900 – I’m not buying what he’s selling for the season, but Perez has a unique GPP scenario set up for him. Though the outlook seems bad based on ballpark and handedness, the reality looks much brighter. This same White Sox team got struck out 10 times in 7 innings by Hector Santiago just a business week ago. With that said, I wouldn’t count on K’s but a long outing with minimal damage seems to be in place given the struggles of the Chicago offense. If Tropeano is too popular, Perez could be the one.
Dustin Garneau, C: $2,900 – I’d be surprised if Tony Wolters actually went against a lefty so I’ll take this punt catcher moment to note that yes, all the Dodgers and the Rockies are in play because Coors. Let’s not make that our post, m’kay? Oh and catcher? Spend low and when you’re there, spend lower. You can use your money more wisely elsewhere and you know it.
Paul Goldschmidt, SP: $5,300 – Speaking of spending your money wisely…Chase Field is a great hitter’s park and Niese the big nosed lefty is on the mound. What, was that rude? I swear that was on his Topps card…whatevs, on a night where he costs this much and Coors is happening, Paul will likely get low ownership because of his slow start. This is one of those times when I LOVE GOOOOLD.
Byung Ho Park, 1B: $3,800 – Think the Twinkies want a do over at this point on the ‘buying into this season’ thing yet? Yeah, this is the same team that told Francisco Liriano to pitch to contact and the team that thought they were in contention when they had a -4 run differential last year. But what are stats amongst friends, amirite? Nonetheless, if you’re looking for an all or nothing power call, Park could easily park one against lefty Gio and if you’re trying to save some dough, you should go with the ‘Ho. And while we are here and because his stick is heating up, Miguel Sano is a great power get as well.
Logan Forsythe, 2B: $4,200 – If you’re not rolling with the rave stick, D.J. LeMaheiu, how about the guy likely batting leadoff against a lefty who hits for power? Logan had a .299 ISO and a 164 wRC+ against southpaws and much like Goldy, will go underowned on a Coors day.
Brandon Drury, 2B/3B: $2,900 – The last time the Dbacks faced a lefty, Drury batted second in the lineup. Though Arizona has been a bit unpredictable with their lineup creations – I think Tony La Russa is rubbing off on Chip – Drury has a strong shot of batting near the top of the order if he’s in.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $4,600 – Please note I’m not out here telling you to fade Coors. Nolan Arenado is somehow tied for 4th most expensive 3B on the board with old man Longo and Justin Turner is way down at $3,800…this DK algo is cray so far this season. Whatevs, Longo, Forsythe and maybe Steven Souza for a mini-Rays stack will go highly underowned despite having great situations for today.
Nick Castellanos, 3B: $3,200 – If you need to pay all the way at 3B for some reason today – again, there’s some soft pricing going on with the bats – Nick could be the one to take advantage of those Josh Tomlin’s high HR/FB rate to go with his penchant for reverse splitting on us. So I don’t waste time later, this is also the day J.D. Martinez could awaken so keep him on your radar in the OF.
Nick Ahmed, SS: $3,000 – Completely a punt play, but with some pop. Ahmed raked last year against lefties and seems to be picking up where he left off this year. If it’s not clear, I am a Dbacks stack fan for today. So I don’t have to later, consider this an endorsement for Yasmany Tomas as well. With SS feeling a bit out of control for pricing on the day, I’ll likely look here for some much needed cash relief today.
Jose Bautista, OF: $4,400 – Not sure what’s suppressing the prices today but Joey Bats feels about $500 less than he should so I’m officially confused. He doesn’t have the platoon advantage but he does have one of the best homerun parks to hit in for the night for righties. Good enough for me.
Odubel Herrera, OF: $3,600 – Solid cash game play with a good park to be such a play in. Odubel can swipe a bag, hit for power, and has a .424 OBP on the year. The interesting stack of the night would be ‘nola and his boys from Philly.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
As of right now…no not THAT now, THIS now. Sheesh. Now as I was saying, as of right now we’ve got three games to keep our eyes on: NYYvsTB, CINvsCHC, and ATLvsNYM. All three sit around a 40% chance of rain come game time, but Atlanta and Cincy show there’s a chance for thunderstorms as well. I’m currently not worried, but I’m going full disclosure here which is a touch better than Full Monty for those rating at home.
Doing Lines In Vegas
The shocker of all shockers…the COLvsLAD tilt leads the O/U today at 11. But with that said, this looks to be a night where Vegas thinks there’ll be runs to be had as over half the slate has an O/U of 8.5 or higher. See what the Twitter tea leaves tell you because it might be a good night to fade Coors if everyone is dead set on it. It should be no surprise that Jon Lester and Matt Harvey lead the way in terms of line at -210 and -190, respectively. What should surprise you is that Lester’s game went from 8 to 8.5 on the run scale. I stand by stacking Skyline Chili on some deep dish as being an interesting way to play your bats tonight if the game goes.