Good day Razzball DFS’ers!
Today we’re taking a bite at the 6-game Main DraftKings slate, which locks at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Bats are going to be a priority today, so we’re looking for discounts at pitcher. Enter Pirates starter Andre Jackson (P, $5,400), who features a solid 3.96 xFIP and a low 5% walk rate. I’m hoping his four-pitch mix can get him past the Royals and their league-worst 82 wRC+ offense.
Let’s take a look at the rest of tonight’s menu:
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The Core (Players who will appear in many of my lineups):
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $7,000 – and the Braves stack. According to our DFSBot, the top nine projected hitters on this slate are all Atlanta Braves. They have an implied 8.51 run total against the Rockies, which is three full runs clear of any other team. Acuna will be 40%+ owned, but perhaps we’ll get some ownership discount on some of his teammates after they let the field down with a 3-run performance at Coors last night.
Travis D’Arnaud, C: $4,100 –. Last night the Braves were predictably highly owned with a few exceptions including catcher Sean Murphy, who was under 5%. Maybe it was Murphy’s high price tag, or that he’s been cool, that he was batting seventh, or a combination of all of this. I’ll go right back to Murphy if he starts, but let’s hope we get D’Arnaud and his 1.091 OPS versus lefty pitching, at decent ownership.
Matt Olson, 1B: $6,800 – There are a lot of good options at first base today, including Freddie Freeman, Connor Joe, Yandy Diaz and DJ LeMahieu, all of whom have the platoon advantage against their respective starting pitchers. I’m hoping much of the field substitutes one of these guys into their Braves stacks for Olson, who faces lefty Kyle Freeland. Olson’s 32% K rate versus lefties hurts his floor, but his .288 ISO and .377 wOBA show that his upside is very much intact.
Orlando Arcia, SS: $4,600 – He came in around 10% owned last night and has a .313 ISO with a .462 wOBA vs. lefties this season.
Marcell Ozuna, OF: $5,200 – .374 ISO, .427 wOBA with just an 18% K rate against lefties this season. Oh, ‘Zuna!
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Gerrit Cole, P: $11,800 – As far as pitchers go, he’s the class of the slate, so I needed to mention him somewhere. He won’t be a full fade for me, as I’ll mix in a Rockies and possibly a Yankees stack. However, Cole is price-prohibitive in full Braves stacks, which will make the majority of my lineups.
Braves hitters as one-offs. A reminder that in DFS tournament play, playing a 40% owned hitter as a one-off is, over time, a losing strategy. Despite the remarkable stats I’ve quoted you, any hitter can, and more often than not will, fail in any given situation. If you’re going to play Acuna Jr., Ozuna, Ozzie Albies or Austin Riley, it’s best to play them in a Braves stack while including lower-owned teammates and differentiating your lineup elsewhere.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Ryan McMahon, 3B: $4,600 – The Rockies have a 5.07 implied run total, so don’t forget the other side of this game. On a different slate, Braves starter Darius Vines might actually make a decent pitching choice. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but he mixes in a lot of breaking balls and relies on control. Unfortunately, this approach leaves little room for error at Coors. McMahon leads the Rockies with his .252 ISO and .389 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Aaron Judge, OF: $6,600 – With all the attention on Coors, Judge might get less ownership than he deserves. The Tigers start Quad-A lefty Joey Wentz today. Judge has demolished lefties to the tune of a .389 ISO over the last two seasons.
J.P. Martinez, OF: $2.800 – If their prices and park factors were better I might look to stack the Rangers against Denyi Reyes and the Mets’ bullpen. Instead, I’ll grab a one-off play if I need a salary saver. Juan Pablo hit .311 with 12 HR and 36 SB in the minors this season, so he can help in a few different ways.
Brandon Pfaadt, P: $6,500 – As I mentioned earlier, in tournament play I’m making sacrifices at pitcher to get the big bats, and this one feels absolutely gross. Sadly, Pfaadt is the only guy in this price range with any kind of upside. Here’s hoping he can conjure up enough strikeouts to survive the Dodgers.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No weather concerns for the main slate but if you’re planning to walk to the indoor contest in Miami, grab an umbrella.
Doing Lines In Vegas
If the Reds/Giants game was on our DFS slate my playbook would look a whole lot different. Hunter Greene has been a mess since coming off the Injured List. In his last two starts (6 ? IP) he has given up 8 walks and 15 hits, including five home runs. I’ll take the Giants, who start the solid Logan Webb, on the moneyline and run line today.
Good luck everyone!