A ticket to see Oppenheimer and a small popcorn will run you nearly thirty bucks. Instead, stay home and watch Nolan Arenado (3B, $5,700) and the Cardinals drop nukes all over the Oakland A’s league-worst pitching staff.
Oakland starter JP Sears has managed just an 18% K rate against right-handed batters. Arenado has just a 14% K rate versus lefties, along with a .237 ISO and .354 wOBA. Come on, Nolan, don’t Tenet me!
Let’s see what else is entertaining on today’s 8-game DraftKings slate, which locks at 7:10 p.m. ET:
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Tyler Glasnow, P: $10,800 – Remember back in May when you took Mom to Red Lobster for Mother’s Day and the Giants were a formidable offense against right-handed pitching? Those were good times. Over the last month, the Giants are dead last in MLB in most of the good offensive categories, including wOBA, ISO, and OPS, and now they get Glasnow at the top of his game. Wish them luck.
Max Scherzer, P: $11,000 -At his lofty salary, Scherzer probably needs thirty points to be a must-have pitcher. I think he can get there tonight against the Angels, who have a huge 28% K rate over the last month.
Jonah Heim, C: $3,400 – Wait, weren’t we paying over a grand more for this guy two weeks ago? Did they put him on the IL because he forgot who he was?
Matt Olson, 1B: $6,500 – I don’t like stacking against the Yankees, but I love this guy as a one-off. Clarke Schmidt has just an 18% K rate against lefty hitters and Olson’s .438 wOBA and .360 OPS against righty starters are ridiculous numbers.
Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF: $3,500 – McNeil has struck out just 11% of the time against right-handed pitching and the Pirates are trotting out Quinn Priester, who doesn’t strike out many himself (15% K rate vs. LHB). Balls in play!
Ezequiel Duran, SS/3B: $3,800 – The Angels are starting Patrick Sandoval, who is hopefully enough of a name to keep the field off of the Texas stack. The Rangers can do a lot of damage here if they can get into that bullpen, which has been bottom-five over the past month.
Bryan Reynolds, OF: $4,300 – I love Carlos Carrasco, but he’s not the pitcher he once was. Hopefully, people are ignoring Reynolds enough to not notice his depressed salary, or that he hit two out yesterday.
Ronald Acuna Jr., OF: $6,700 – Your weekly reminder that he’s otherworldly and in play on every slate. Fun fact: Acuna has cut his K-rate against right-handed pitching in half this season, to an elite 12%.
Jack Suwinski, OF: $3,300 – Cookie’s low 13% K rate should help Su-wing-and-a-miss-ki find the barrel today.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Corbin Carroll, OF: $6,000 – I could strain to come up with a numbers-based reason for a tournament fade, like Chris Flexen’s uncanny ability to limit fly balls to left-handed batters (16%), but this is really about ownership. Carroll is the guy everyone is going to try to jam in, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s 40% owned in smaller contests. Hitters have far too much variance on a day-to-day basis to justify playing one who’s that highly-owned.
Ketel Marte, 2B: $5,700 – In fact, get me off of this whole stack. I’ll stick to my very unscientific mantra of fading offenses on their first game into Coors, especially one that’s been as cold as the D-Backs (.700 OPS and 89 wRC+ over the past month).
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Brady Singer, P: $7,900 – Lately Singer is looking more like the competent pitcher from last season and less like the guy who devastated your AL-only team this spring. He gets the Mariners, whom we’ve picked on all season with righty starters. I’ll be on Singer and his improving slider today.
Grayson Rodriguez, P: $6,400 – The Padres are a tough assignment, but when you have stuff like Gray-Rod it’s less about your opponent and more about getting out of your own way. As long as DraftKings is pricing him in the $6,000’s he’s a guy we need to consider in GPP’s.
Logan Gilbert, P: $9,700 – It must seem like I like every pitcher today and yeah, I like a number of them. If I need the money to jam in another bat I have no issue dropping from Scherzer/Glasnow to Gilbert, who’s making a case for ace these days (dace?).
Lawrence Butler, OF: $2,000 – This recent call-up is a high-contact hitter with decent power and better-than-decent speed. With the platoon advantage over high-contact pitcher Mikolas, he’s a great bet to smash his meager salary.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s some moderate rain risk in the Pirates/Mets game. The Yankees/Braves should be able to play through some light rain. Both situations bear watching throughout the day.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m seeing the over-under in the Mariners/Royals game at 9.0 in some places, which I think is too high. I think there’s value even if it falls to 8.5.
I talked about how the Angels are in tough today, so I’ll also take the Rangers on the runline and the moneyline.
Good luck everyone! I’ll try and check in later with an update. As always, keep your feet on the ground and watch the skies!
