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We kinda had an accidental theme here! All the cool kids are looking toward the future and stuff, like here and here. This is my meager contribution!

Getting near the end, and I realized I think I only have two weeks left after this! I’m looking to do my next year’s ranks in one of those. It’s time to look toward the future.

Well, not quite. There’s like a month and change left in the season. But the focus here will shift toward the future. It’s interesting, and there’s lots of content on this site with daily notes and whatnot. Some of this will update your thinking on some current guys (as it did for me!), and others may confirm your biases.

Freddie Freeman: 2nd round pick this year

Freeman is having a typical Freeman year minus the home runs. He’s at 18 on the season, which is fine. The batting average is great at .302, but speed has dissipated. He’s at only four. Given his age (36 next season), Freeman cannot be counted on as a cornerstone in the first two rounds. Now, give me all the Freddie after that. He should continue to be a solid producer, a solidifier of sorts. With age, his bat speed has declined incrementally and is now in the bottom 17% of the league.

Verdict: If you can get him next year, wait until the round 3 or 4 area. He’s aging, the cliff can come at any time, and there’s some physical decline already. He should be safe, but only if you have two cornerstones. Another option would be Freeman if you, for some reason, take a pitcher in the first two rounds, but you read Razzball, so you wouldn’t dare!

Rafael Devers: 2-3 round this year

Oracle Park (the Giant’s stadium, in case you haven’t kept up with weird naming trends) is notoriously tough on left-handed power hitters who aren’t on steroids. There’s a 25 foot wall in right, cold and dreary weather, and left-center is deep. It’s a bottom three park in the league for left-handed power hitters.

Dang it, Rafael Devers just happens to be a left-handed power hitter. This isn’t good.

It’s been an exceedingly weird season for Devers. He started out by striking out almost every at bat. Then he caught fire, but angered the Red Sox brass and was dealt to San Fran. Now he’s hitting .226/.336/.410 in his time on the West Coast. He’s never been an athletic type, and he’s what the scouts call an “old 28” years old. I won’t touch him until the 7-8 round, if then. That’s probably pricing myself out of him, but so be it. There’s just far too many red flags to overcome his home park.

Verdict: Round 8-10 for me, which means I won’t get him due to his name value. Someone will hope for the rebound earlier, and that’s just okay.

Junior Caminero: Round 5-6 preseason

Caminero is 21 years old. He has 39 home runs before September. 94 RBI. Batting average 14 points above league average. Yes, this is a long term asset here. Once he harnesses his league best swing speed even more, this is a fantasy monster for the next decade.

Verdict: Get him in round two, he’s actually the perfect guy to pair with Freeman. Electric talent, and will be a value in the second round.

Bryce Harper: Round 2-3 preseason

This one pains me. Harper has been my pick for a decade, and he’s not 32. He’s only ranked 15 on the Rater at first base. The profile has shifted from “Perennial MVP Candidate” to “Solid player.” I’ll always take him higher than most, but the elite nature of his game is in the rear-view mirror. Still valuable as he compiles stats for his Hall of Fame resume, but not what he once was.

Verdict: To get value back, probably in the 5th round.

Here’s the ADP data from preseason, and my take on these guys and their values for next year. I used composite values from FantasyPros from the five major sites.

Rank Player Name ADP (Overall) Your Notes
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 13.4 I’ll always take him in the first if available
2 Bryce Harper 19.4 See above
3 Freddie Freeman 24.2 See above
4 Matt Olson 28.6 Down, 2022 isn’t coming back
5 Rafael Devers 31.2 See Above
6 Pete Alonso 37.4 Steady value
7 Josh Naylor 69.8 Depends on location
8 Christian Walker 78.0 Undraftable
9 Yainer Díaz 78.6 Catcher
10 Salvador Pérez 80.8 Catcher
11 Cody Bellinger 83.0 Steady value
12 Willson Contreras 97.2 Value down, no catcher eligibility
13 Triston Casas 103.2 Late round flier
14 Jake Burger 110.8 Late round flier
15 Vinnie Pasquantino 112.6 Solid mid round pick, probably in the 60s
16 Spencer Steer 131.8 Probably after pick 200
17 Alec Bohm 143.6 Steady value
18 Paul Goldschmidt 155.8 Late round flier
19 Luis Arraez 161.4 only good for average
20 Isaac Paredes 164.6 Higher, he’s in a good park

 

Rank Player Name ADP (Overall) Your Notes
1 Jose Ramirez 5 Still the top
2 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 13.4 no longer 3B
3 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 24.8 Way too high. I’m not taking him above round 5
4 Austin Riley 29 Injuries for two years. Gonna be some else’s issue
5 Rafael Devers 31.2 See above
6 Manny Machado 33 Slightly rising due to stability. Great third round pick, good second
7 Jordan Westburg 82.2 Meh. I guess there’s upside yet?
8 Mark Vientos 88.8 Late round flier
9 Junior Caminero 90.6 See above
10 Alex Bregman 92.8 Rising, may leave Boston so keep an eye out
11 Jake Burger 110.8 late round flier
12 Matt Chapman 115.6 Probably more a 150 pick
13 Royce Lewis 130.2 Late round flier
14 Alec Bohm 143.6 steady
15 Eugenio Suarez 146.8 Gotta see where he lands
16 Isaac Paredes 164.6 see above
17 Tommy Edman 184.6 Late round CI or MI guy
18 Luis Rengifo 187 Late Round CI or MI guy
19 Josh Jung 202 I can’t quit. Round 10-15, he’s solid
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Chucky
Chucky
2 hours ago

Thoughts on Barger? OF eligibility a plus but man, this guy hasn’t done much for a solid three weeks. Was cautiously optImistic that he’d be a keeper for me, but just not sure anymore.

trix mcgee
trix mcgee
6 hours ago

Mmm, mulling this one over, very interesting thoughts. Only own Bryce and Willson from your list, and could not agree more. Thanks for the early thoughts !

Dom Cobb
Dom Cobb
7 hours ago

Where’s Nicky Nukes? 2nd or 3rd rounder next year?

Oddball Herrera
Oddball Herrera
7 hours ago

I feel that Rice should be solidly at the back end of the top 10 for 1B next year. Incredible rookie year that is not getting as much helium as it should. Weird considering the market he plays in