Corners Report: Top 20 First Base Ranks

Back at it here for another season at Razzball! Honored again to do the corners report every week, thanks for clicking. Here’s the top 20 first base ranks.

First base, man, I miss first base so much. Just look at Grey’s post from 2008. Those numbers, like number 8 would be the best player in the position. Even 2015 was a great ecosystem at the position. Also, if you read Grey’s current rankings, there was a time when he stopped at 20 players per position! Now we’re at 51. Keep growing, Razzball readers.

It’s not just you. They’ve fallen on hard times.

But of course, there’s value here. I joined a practice league, and by drafting wisely and not reaching, you can do well. If you don’t go Vlad or Kurtz, then wait a little bit and grab someone else. I’m comfortable with Vlad in the first round, but probably if I don’t get him there, there’s like an option or two for every round. If you miss on 1B in the top 100 picks, well, you shouldn’t do that. The pickings are quite slim.

One note with these ranks, if a player is catcher eligible, he doesn’t make this list.  If you’re playing Sal Perez or Ben Rice at first base, good for you! You must have a great catcher!

Let’s dive into the tiers. These are fluid and can be moved around however you want. If you don’t want to spend too much time on it, though, here’s my best take.

EDITOR’S NOTE: We are down to three Razzball Commenter Leagues with openings.  Like THIS ONE drafting Saturday (3/21) at 9 PM ET or THIS ONE drafting Sunday (3/22) at noon ET, both featuring RCL co-conspirator, VinWins!  Don’t miss out!

Tier 1:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: I’m sticking with my Vlad rank. No, he’s not going to be the 48 HR guy again. Hitting at or over .300 over 162 games is incredibly helpful in the current low BA climate. His runs and RBI are stable in a solid Blue Jays lineup. You’re taking Vlad for the floor more than the ceiling, but in this climate, it’s a uniquely high one. I’ve got him in my top 10 overall, ahead of Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, and other higher variance guys. If you want a don’t miss pick, it’s Vlad. He’s a safe bet for .290-90-100-25 and a good OBP at worst.

2. Bryce Harper: There’s nothing wrong with Bryce Harper if he’s healthy. Last year, he wasn’t. He battled a wrist ailment and was also hit on his surgically repaired elbow with a 95 mph fastball. The wrist explains why his whiff rate spiked (down to 13th percentile from 38th the year before) partially, although he’s had poor whiff rates in the past. All of his other metrics stayed exactly the same from 24-25, and at 33, there’s no real sign of decline under the hood. If you can get Bryce in the 4th, he’s a steal.

Tier 2:

3. Nick Kurtz: First of all, Kurtz is our best hope for the big-bopping first baseman with muscles archetype that we grew up with. I have him in dynasty, redraft, and fake leagues that I play only in my head. He’s going to hit 40 home runs. The only knocks, and this is just to justify his 3 ranking, are that .249 XBA last year and .685 OPS vs. lefties. The other knock is that he might bat leadoff this year. Yes, I’m aware the knocks are adding up. The guys ahead of him, the ones they want to get on base for Kurtz to knock in, which are not the knocks I was just talking about, are Max Muncy (the worse Muncy) and Denzel Clarke, who has major questions. Kurtz could hit 40 HR with 75 RBI in this setup. I love him, but he’s second. The floor is lower, even if the ceiling is higher.

4. Matt Olson: I like 30 HR, 90 R, and RBI guys. That’s his baseline, and he does play 162 per year. When I say he plays 162 per year, I mean that he hasn’t missed a game in 4 seasons. He probably skillset-wise fits better in the next tier, or really, they could be all one tier, but I have to, have to highlight the durability here. He also fits better on a team where you drafted for upside early. He pairs well with unproven upside.

Tier 3:

5. Vinnie Pasquantino: Give me anyone who hits .270 with 30 HR and 100 RBI. There’s not that many. Here’s my soapbox: Batting your best hitters 1-2 in the lineup cuts down RBI chances. The 2 spot, according to Fangraphs, loses up to 12 RBI. 90 RBI cut down to 78 seems like a deal. Vinny P won’t hit second, and he’ll be behind Bobby Witt, Jr. and Maikel Garcia, two good baserunners. I like Vinny’s chance to repeat the elite RBI and can get 115. Unless they do something and put him at leadoff. Why don’t they think about the poor fantasy owners here?

6. Pete Alonso: He’s down here to make a point. Why does everyone assume Alonso is a lock to repeat last season? He’s in the first year of a big contract, switching organizations for the first time. Likely to be a slow start, and why does everyone forget about the .241 batting average and then .217 the year before? High strikeout, mid walk guy, and he’s over 30. I haven’t forgotten 23-24, which were highly frustrating. Call it a gut feel, but I feel Chris Davis vibes. Not the cliff/crater version: I’m going .245, 30 HR, 90 RBI

7. Michael Busch: Did you read my Vinnie P section? Where batting leadoff can affect things? Busch hit 5 HR in 46 times leading off games. Which looks great, but stats wise–that’s 5 RBI. Anyway, I digress. What Busch needs to do to make me look good here is two fold. If he does these, he can be up to Tier 2 and pass Matt Olsen. Not likely, of course, and that’s why he’s here.

1. Hit lefties at a passable level: .207/.274/.368 like he did last year means he’s getting platooned a bit
2. Produce in those additional 30 games that he missed: that’s over a month of the season missed due to platoon split issues. Keep in there and you have a possible 40 HR, 100/100 season ahead.

Busch is either going to be top 5 or somewhere around 15. I’m going upside with the Cubs’ slugger

8. Freddie Freeman: I just don’t draft 36 year old players. Too much can go wrong with performance or injury. The bat speed is slowing down, resulting in a whiff rate that cratered from 75th percentile to 30th last season. Quite alarming. I don’t predict a cliff, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few Eric Hosmer type seasons as Freeman winds his Hall of Fame career down.

9. Rafael Devers: 35 HR and a league average batting average. I probably will pass on Devers at his ADP. .236 with a .460 SLG in San Francisco makes me pause on him.

Tier 4:

10. Tyler Soderstrom: He’s a basher in a great park. No reason not to repeat last year. Expect .280 with 25 HR and 90 RBI again.

11. Andrew Vaughn: Ranking Vaughn here is bold, I get it. It’s a reflection of the shallowness of first base. Vaughn has upside, more than the slew of Christian Walker type of players that I won’t mention. I mean, won’t mention again. Don’t forget he was a massive prospect who was caught up in becoming a White Sock. The Brewers, notably a smart organization, got this production out of him. I’m taking his stats with them and doubling them (he played 64 games)

.308/.375/.493, 52 R, 92 RBI, 18 HR. If you prorate to around 600 PA, you then get 21 dingers, 61 R and 109 RBI. It was supported by real changes in BB% (2 up to 9 percent) and a decline to 15% K rate.  Does anyone else really have this upside? Maybe? Probably? It’s a bet on a short sample breakout, sure. But any player from this point on has warts. Make your wart look like Andrew Vaughn.

12. Yandy Diaz: Nothing against Yandy, but he isn’t hitting 25 HR again. That was aided by their temporary home park. He is safe for a .280-.300 average, and 70-80 runs and RBI. There’s nothing in the metrics that show he’s declining; the bat speed and hard hit metrics are stable. Just don’t expect the incredible hard hit metrics to result in more deep flies.

13. Jonathan Aranda: Admittedly biased because I watched him dominate in AAA Durham, it was fun to watch Aranda break out last year, and then was crushed when he was hurt on a fluke broken wrist. He was hitting .316, and even .278 against LHP, his former bugaboo. This is a guy who, for two seasons in the minors, cleared a .330 batting average. He can hit. You will need to supplement his home runs. If you got, say, Kyle Schwarber earlier, this is the perfect buffer for batting average to pair with him. Aranda is a solid value, cheaper due to his injury last season.

Tier 5:

14. Josh Naylor: Another guy I’m lower on than consensus. I swear, did you all not notice that he signed in Seattle again? Suppresses offense by 11% Seattle? Y’all good if he hits .245 with 20 HR and 10 steals? Because Seattle does bad, bad things to struck baseballs. He did slash .360/.408/.607 in a reasonable sample of 100 plate appearances in his new home ballpark. Thanks, counter argument bot. I’m betting that his end of season hot streak was just that, and Seattle will put a major hole in his stats donut. Also, 30 SB is highly unlikely to happen again. I’m way way out on Naylor, ranking him in a spot to ensure I’m not tempted.

15. Willson Contreras: I’m not terribly excited either. Hence the tier 5. Maybe a 20 HR season with .260? His metrics do support a solid power season, and he has the ability to pepper the Green Monster with hard hit line drives.

16. Kyle Manzardo: Another bet on prospect pedigree breaking out. For the Manzalorian, I went to the Statcast player similarity: Ian Happ, Spencer Torkelson, Willy Adames. So, guys with low batting averages and some good power. Manzardo in the minors was more of a contact and medium power type. .279/.388/.544 was the slash across his minors career, and that included a weird year where he had a family issue and struggled. That’s a high OBP, good power guy. It hasn’t shown up yet, but there’s a chance.

Tier 6:

17. Alec Burleson: Got the full time first base job in St. Louis. Also fixed his platoon splits last year. So, Burleson is on the radar. If he can keep the .290 batting average, with the increased workload 25 HR are in play. To be even more optimistic, he’s getting to focus on one position now, when he came in from college as a 2 way player (OF and P) and learned a new spot. Settling in? The lineup is poor, though, so the run production stats will suffer.

18. Spencer Torkelson: 30 HR pop and .240 average with a high K rate. He’s settled in, lower than we wanted, but hey. The plate approach is a bit passive, a lot of walks and strikeouts, and he plays better in an OBP league. I would be satisfied with him as a CI in a deeper league.

19. Jac Caglianone: I went through all Grey’s 51 guys that he ranked in his top 20 and couldn’t find a lot to be happy about. So I went with the awesomely named, possibly rushed to the majors last year Jac. The bat speed here is elite elite, and his barrel rate is solid as well. Surprisingly, I thought he’d have a large K rate but it was only 22%. The expected BA was .237; his actual .157 seemed unlucky. Just ask RotoSurgeon. Sure enough, he had a .172 BABIP. Our projections have him batting .250 with 20 dingers. Projections are usually tough on unproven youngsters. This much of a projected jump is a huge show of confidence in the Jac Attack. Don’t be surprised if he cracks the top 10 by the end of the season.

20. Sal Stewart: He is a human who may start for the Reds, but he might not, but he did knock 5 out in September last year. We shall see, and there’s worse fliers. My boss just walked past, and I need to clear my search history to keep my income intact now!

Thanks for reading! Who did I miss? Who is too low? High?