Corners Report: The First Basemen

Welcome back to this wonderful journey we call the Corners Report. It’s my third year on this prestigious website, and hopefully, you don’t remember two years ago when I pimped Andrew Vaughn and Anthony Rizzo. This year, it’s a challenge to rank and discuss the corners as they are, um, a bit shallow.

This space, when ranking, will limit itself to 20 guys. If you want more, read this and listen to this.

My goal is to supplement these, since they’re probably more accurate, and maybe just maybe have some added insight. Just so you know, the glory days of drafting elite first basemen to carry your team are not happening this season. I’ve said this in the past, and I repeat: there are no shallow positions, just positions that you need to find the breakouts in. With that, we’ll group into some neat little groups, then the ranks will be at the bottom.

The First Round Pick

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: He has the potential in any given season to put up league leading numbers in multiple categories. His Statcast is elite. He has all the motivation in the world to try to earn a payday this offseason and break baseball’s CBA all by himself. I would take him as high as third in drafts. He could out HR Gunnar Henderson, and have 120 runs and ribbies. In a low batting average context, his over .300 really stands out. Yes, you should take Vlad.

Other Guys You Can Count On In the First Two Rounds

Bryce Harper: Not sure what he would possibly have in his profile that would lead one to believe he’s in decline. Still in his prime, still plenty capable of every stat you could want.

Oh dear. That’s the end of the guys you should draft in the first two.

Guys who Could Produce Round 1-2 Values:

Freddie Freeman: The case that he could do it is that he’s been doing it for a long time, but that ties into the case why he’s risky because dude is 35 and coming off a swiss cheese ankle injury. The bat speed declined, worrisome indeed. My general rule is to never draft guys at 35 or over. Yes, sometimes you miss on David Ortiz, but more often it works out. There are enough targets later for me to pass on Freeman in the early rounds this season.

Matt Olson/Pete Alonso: They are both big power bats in good lineups and if they can raise their batting averages they could sneak into the top 20. Just don’t draft them there.

Vinnie Pasquantino: If you look at his season and his OPS by month, here’s the story of why you can buy into him.

Phase 1: Recovering from shoulder surgery: .697 and .746 OPS, raising as he gets more comfortable

Phase 2: Healthy and true talent: June .832, July .717 August .801

Phase 3: busted thumb so he couldn’t add stats while he was hitting well.

Vinnie in the second half slashed .296/.325/.497 with 8 home runs, and that’s subtracting September. If you assume he maintained his August, the total production would be 27 dingers, near 100 RBI, and over 80 runs scored. If he’s ever going to reach this level, it’s this season. He’s going after pick 100 in drafts, and is a great value at that point.

Guys You Can Write Home to Mama About

Josh Naylor: He has a new home in Arizona and really has no reason not to repeat his 2024. I’m simply biased against guys built like him. Not fat shaming, I’m a bit portly myself and understand the struggle. Just for fantasy, give me the big guys with big muscles.

Cody Bellinger: He was traded for Cody Poteet this offseason. Not a compliment. But that sweet, sweet lefty swing is tailor made for Yankee Stadium. Statcast shows a propensity for squaring up when he does swing; the exit velocity is not great, however. With the move from Wrigley Field, the second worst park for hitters, into a better offensive environment, Bellinger would seem to be primed for a good season. Of course, this is Cody Bellinger, and the IL will happen at some point (14 times in 5 seasons). It’s your call on where you draft him (currently in the 80-90 range) and if that’s worth the risk.

Christian Walker: Violates the set in stone 35 year old limit, so won’t be on my teams this year. That said, until his Dreaded Oblique injury last season he’s been durable and a reliable power bat that won’t help your average but won’t hurt it either. Gotta monitor him in a new park in Houston. I can see it, just won’t do it.  (seems to have avoided another oblique scare this spring)

Gimme Dat Slug

Jake Burger: Now entrenched in a good lineup in Texas and free from the Miami doldrums, look for Burger to have a big season in the Lone Star state. A large, free, and hard swinging man, he will become a cult hero among Rangers fans, and possibly nationally if he continues what he did last year. Look for over 30 home runs, few walks, and making a lot of friends along the way. I’d draft him over guys like Naylor, Bellinger, and Walker. Anywhere around pick 90 or so, he’s a power carrying bat and fun guy to roster.

Triston Casas: A trendy breakout pick last year, he was derailed by injury and never fully regained his second half of 2023 mojo. He still flashed hard contact and solid bat speed, and could do it this season. I’m not sure Boston really believes in him though with the rumors of Rafael Devers moving to his position. The swing and miss isn’t going away either. Casas will hit some long ones, but his overall impact will be muted unless he reduces that whiff rate.

Solid Producers:

Ryan Mountcastle: Baltimore moved their fences in. I’m not sure, but it would seem to me that shorter fences would mean an amplified chance to hit home runs. Mountcastle had eleven flyouts that would have been out of the yard this season. That would have given him 24, which is a lot more than 13. He still has a lot of chase in his profile and isn’t a prolific plate approach guy, but as a later pick or corner infield spot, Mountcastle looks like a steal.

Michael Busch: He’s not going to be a massive power bat due to a lack of big muscles and a slower bat speed. XStats and projections are not friendly to him either, and Justin Turner lurks as a potential platoon mate. Just draft him expecting what he did last year (21 Hr, .248 batting average) and be happy, doggone it. Not everyone is going to break out!

Alec Burleson: The former two way college star found a home in St. Louis last season, and was almost a carbon copy of Michael Busch. I’d prefer Burleson to Busch though. Give me the player with a much lower whiff rate and 12% strikeout rate (Busch is near 30%). At the point you’re drafting these guys, neither will win or lose your league, but taking Burleson is one of those nice little incremental gains for your imaginary squad.

Bits and Pieces

You won’t see this place rank Yannier Diaz, Salvador Perez, or Willson Contreras. They are all catcher eligible and if you draft them at first base you are doing this game wrong.

Other players to watch: Christian Encarnacion-Strand,  Michael Toglia

Ranks below. Thanks for reading and let’s deal from the corner this season!