There has been a lot of work behind the scenes to our daily projection methodology since my last update in May. The impact has been very positive – e.g., June represented our most accurate month ever for projecting DFS hitter points.

If you haven’t signed up already, I implurge (implore + urge) you to sign up for a month of DFSBot as for $9.99, you will get our DFS projections for DraftKings (and three others providers), the Streamonator + HitterTron for dominating Roto AND free access to our partner LineupLab’s MLB lineup optimizer leveraging our projections.

Here is a summary of the recent projections methodology improvements:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Yesterday, I shared the latest confidence-affirming test on the Razzball daily MLB projections. Today, I have some great news on how you will be able to make the most out of our projections.

We have partnered with Lineup Lab to create a fantastic lineup optimizer. It is FREE for all DFS Premium subscribers for at least the month of June. For the low price of $9.99/month (or FREE if you open up a new DFS account), you will get our projections and this lineup optimizer for this month).

The optimizers can be accessed via the below links or via the Tools Menu.

Like some of you, I have been using an Excel-based ‘Solver’ to optimize our DFS projections. After doing side-by-side comparisons, I can say with certainty that the Lineup Lab optimizer is superior. Here are some of the examples…

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy baseball brings out the competitive bastard in me. Expert leagues, NFBC, and DFS sites like DraftKings are the standard targets of my affliction but I also get obsessive about our daily projections. Short of maybe gambling and winning big bucks in DFS (not going to happen with my limited risk tolerance), it is hard to find ways to test the quality of our daily projections.

It is not for lack of trying. I compare our DFS hitter and pitcher point projections against DFS site salaries in our DFSBot on our Ombotsman page and – going back to May 2014 – there has yet to be a month where a DFS site’s salary has outperformed us. I did a 2 month test last year against ESPN Fantasy Forecaster that showed our starting pitcher projections were superior. I tested last year’s projections against hitter and pitcher recent game data to find areas that could use improvement (highlighted pitcher IP should leverage recent starts more).

As I was contemplating new targets to compare against, I was IM’ing with our lead DFS writer (Sky) and he noted that he looks at Vegas Over/Under estimates for Runs when considering teams to stack. That got me thinking…I could go for some pancakes. After eating those pancakes, I thought, “What if I test our projections against Vegas!”. Then I napped.

Yada yada yada, below are the (favorable) test results versus Las Vegas MLB lines. See bottom of post for some testing notes. As an added bonus (until someone pays me to take them down), DFS Premium subscribers can see these team run projections updated every day (for today + at least the next 6 days) on our Teamonator page.

Please visit our Subscription page for more information on our daily projection subscription packages. We offer daily, monthly, and season long packages – catering both to the Roto and DFS player (if you play both, even better).

Also, stay tuned tomorrow for an awesome addition to DFSBot!!!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Razzball’s daily fantasy baseball tools – Streamonator, Hittertron, and DFSBot – are available by subscription in 2015. If you play in roto leagues with daily roster changes or Daily Fantasy Sports like DraftKings, these tools will rock your world. Please see our Subscriptions page for details – including how to get a free subscription by opening up a new Daily Fantasy Sports account.

In my previous ‘hot hitter’ post, I found that a hitter’s recent performance (measured as last 3 games and last 5 games) had no value in projecting next game performance once you account for the player’s known skill (as measured by Steamer Rest of Season projections) and the relevant gameday matchup info incorporated into our Hittertron/DFSBot (e.g., quality of opposing pitcher, handedness of opposing pitcher, park factors).

This post will cover whether recent performance by a starting pitcher helps improve the next start projections in our Streamonator and the pitching component of DFSBot.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Razzball’s daily fantasy baseball tools – Streamonator, Hittertron, and DFSBot – are available by subscription in 2015. If you play in roto leagues with daily roster changes or Daily Fantasy Sports like DraftKings, these tools will rock your world. Please see our Subscriptions page for details – including how to get a free subscription by opening up a new Daily Fantasy Sports account. 

Fantasy baseballers are becoming increasingly analytical. Estimating a player’s future batting average now reflexively leads to checking their BABIP, their batted ball profile (GB/LD/FB) and a hitter’s K%. Any discussion of a pitcher’s ERA will likely reference their FIP/xFIP/SIERA/etc. Aside from the whole bastardization of baseball outcomes for the illusion of empowerment and erosion of professional productivity, the average fantasy baseballer is much closer in perspective to a sabermetrician than the average fan watching from his/her couch (or the remaining indoctrinated baseball journalists that still roam the land).

One area where I admit I have a tough time reconciling my analytic side with my fantasy baseball instincts is the value of a hitter’s recent performance.*

* I know many fantasy baseball players look at hitter/pitcher matchup data. I think the chapter on this in The Book clearly drives home the point that these results are not predictive because of small sample sizes. I always ignore matchup data and think it is a total waste of time…well, except for Goldschmidt vs Lincecum
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On March 18th, Grey and I took part in the 14-team mixed-league Yahoo! Friends & Family league. I really like this one for two reasons:

  • Daily roster moves let me leverage Streamonator and Hittertron – although it’s tougher than RCL because pickups must be made the day before (no starting lineup-based pickups) and there is a newly-instituted 125 add/drop rule (i made 180 or so last year)
  • We get to play with our Friends at Yahoo (Behrens, Pianowski, Dalton, Funston) and Rotowire (Erickson, Liss) plus the polarizing and prolific tweeter Michael Salfino and some folks from Rotoworld. If you can successfully snag a closer or free agent from this group, it is a real accomplishment (my 2015 snags included Hector Rondon, Jake Petricka, Kennys Vargas, and Josh Harrison)
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Frank Grimes of Sunnyvale, California! He was lucky number 401 of the 993 submissions in our Win a Free Awesome Dell XPS 13 Laptop Like the One I Use! contest. I am psyched that the randomizer function I ran picked a longtime reader/commenter (Frank’s been commenting on Razzball since 2013).

My condolences to the 992 of you who failed to win (none of you are losers in my book) and those of you who failed to enter the contest. If you are in the market for a laptop, though, I do give a Fred McGriffian endorsement to the Dell XPS 13 laptop. Below is my review of the laptop from the original post in case you missed or forgot it.

Thanks to Dell for providing the free laptops (I got one too). I look forward to seeing my avatar and endorsement stamped on Dell laptop boxes going forward!

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Thanks to the fantasy baseball sabbatical of our longtime pal Nick Minnix, the Tout Wars Mixed League (15-team, snake draft) had an extra spot for good ol’ Rudy. Grey is also in the league (his draft review here) which gives Razzball two chances to win and me three chances to beat Grey in a 2015 league (RCL and Yahoo Friends & Family the other two). It is also the 3rd straight expert draft (LABR Mixed, CBS AL) that fellow Austinite Paul Sporer was in the same draft as me. So I have the opportunity for two hat tricks this year (or to be hat tricked….grr, pessimistic parentheticals).

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This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft.  Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across AL-only and NL-only 10 and 12 team leagues. These are based on the standard 2 Catcher/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/5 OF/UTIL/9 P roster format.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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