Last year, I wrote a “If You Can Think It, I Could Test It” where I invited commenters to ask me draft questions that I can test against the Razzball Commenter League data. With Grey traveling back from his stealthily awesome Tout NL draft, I figured I’d use today for a sequel.

Here’s what I have at my disposal:

  • 101 12-team RCLs from 2015: Draft Results + Final Standings/Stats (Daily roster changes/pickups)
  • 17 12-team NFBC leagues from 2015: Draft Results + Final Standings/Stats (Weekly)
  • 2015 Steamer/Razzball Hitter and Pitcher Projections
  • 84 12-team RCLs from 2014: Draft Results + Final Standings/Stats (Daily)

Types of questions you can ask include:

  • How did teams that drafted a SAGNOF like Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon do?
  • How did teams that invested a lot vs a little in starting pitching do?
  • What stat categories correlated best with final standings points?

The more specific the question, the better.

This is a special day. If you ask me an everyday question about your team, I’m going to reply with “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

Here is an example:

Q: Which players were on the most and least successful teams in RCL last year?

A: Below are the top 20 and bottom 20 players for drafted teams’ final standings points (average is 65) based on those drafted in all 101 leagues.

Top 20 Players in Team Standings Points (Drafted in All 101 RCLs)
Player RCL ADP Avg Standings Pts
Jake Arrieta 82.5 78.8
Bryce Harper 21.2 75.7
Josh Donaldson 18.5 75.1
Eric Hosmer 135.4 75.0
Dee Gordon 66.6 74.5
Michael Pineda 179.9 74.4
Albert Pujols 38.0 74.4
Gerrit Cole 75.7 74.3
A.J. Pollock 142.4 74.0
Matt Harvey 66.0 73.3
Collin McHugh 163.4 73.2
Jose Abreu 5.6 73.0
Francisco Rodriguez 171.9 73.0
Nolan Arenado 31.6 72.7
Tyler Clippard 208.0 72.6
Joaquin Benoit 154.0 72.5
Drew Storen 135.7 72.5
Charlie Blackmon 118.2 72.3
J.D. Martinez 127.8 72.3

 

Bottom 20 Players in Team Standings Points (Drafted in All 101 RCLs)
Player RCL ADP Avg Standings Pts
Victor Martinez 56.5 52.3
Julio Teheran 88.1 52.5
Gio Gonzalez 103.7 53.4
Freddie Freeman 29.2 53.6
Robinson Cano 17.3 55.2
Jonathan Lucroy 92.4 55.5
Devin Mesoraco 119.0 55.5
Felix Hernandez 15.1 56.0
Aramis Ramirez 200.2 56.0
Carlos Gomez 7.6 56.4
Matt Carpenter 114.0 57.0
Johnny Cueto 48.0 57.2
Alex Cobb 110.6 57.6
Chase Utley 183.1 57.8
Andrew Cashner 165.6 57.9
Hunter Pence 99.1 57.9
Cole Hamels 62.9 58.1
Adam Wainwright 84.9 58.3
Yadier Molina 188.0 58.6

Okay, let’s rock. Will try and crank out answers through 4PM EST today (my laptop and SQL database permitting).

  1. Kieffer says:
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    2 aces.. How many winners had 2 aces and where were they drafted?

    • @Kieffer:
      Here is the distribution of SP drafted first 5 rounds and their average league rank:
      # Of SPs drafted | # of Teams | % of Teams | Average League Rank
      0|339|0.2797|6
      1|543|0.448|6.4
      2|256|0.2112|7.2
      3|61|0.0503|7.1
      4|11|0.0091|7.5
      5|2|0.0017|9.5

      • Mel

        littlecf24 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:
        Won last year drafting Kershaw 1st with the 7th pick. Got Hanley, Arenado, Cespedes, Gerrit Cole, Chris Davis in that order rode them to the ship

        • MooseOutFront says:
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          @littlecf24: Thanks for the single data point, but I’ll put more value on the 1000 teams worth of data that Rudy posted.

      • Left Hangs Lower says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Wow, so if you went with no ace you had a better standing at the end, huh?

        • @Left Hangs Lower: that’s what the data says….though i suspect teams who didn’t draft an ace were more active maximizing IP.

          • Caitlyn Jenners Penis says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: @Rudy Gamble: Seems like the data says that SP is deep and hitting is still at a premium

  2. Ryan says:
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    Here goes a try…
    How did teams fair who punted certain categories or positions, such as Catcher, Saves, Steals?
    Was the benefit to other categories significant when one or more were nixed? Does this appear to be by design or luck?

    • Cram It says:
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      @Ryan: I won the whole thing and I used a Frankencatcher.

    • @Ryan: That’s far reaching. I’ll focus on teams that punted catcher.

      Teams that drafted Catcher in first 20 rounds averaged 63.1 pts (~67% of teams)
      Teams that drafted Catcher after 20th round averaged 68.9 pts (~33 of teams)

      • Adam says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        How did teams do that drafted Posey? I think there are 3 kinds of C owners: the Posey owners, the punters, and everyone else.

        • @Adam: didn’t work out super well for Posey drafters

          Name # of Leagues Round Avg Std Pts
          Buster Posey 7 2 57.85714
          Buster Posey 41 3 60.26829
          Buster Posey 46 4 60.68478
          Buster Posey 7 5 67.92857
  3. Ryan says:
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    Here’s another, since we seem to be all alone here this morning…
    Of all teams drafted whose player makeup tended to lean towards a specific type of player (a predominance of any one of young, old, consistent/safe, or breakout candidates, etc) which managers are most likely to score a higher overall value based on ADP. In other words, does drafting all old guys make me more likely to find more hidden value in the draft than say drafting only players whose first or last name starts with an S?

    • @Ryan: Too far-reaching to test. Need something specific. I could tie in age but how would I designate consistent/safe?

  4. SefSef says:
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    Rudy I love this post, thank you in advance!

    Winner of the overall 12 team NFBC last year drafted a pitcher in the first round…
    What was the average round of the first and second pitchers taken by the winners of each league last year?

    What about positional makeup for winners first 4 rounds? Did they draft corner infidels who could mash?

    Thanks for all the hard work!
    -Sef

    • @SefSef: Winners averaged drafting SP1 in round 5.2 and SP2 in 8.3. All other teams averaged SP1 in round 4.5 and SP2 in round 7.8.

      C 1B 2B SS 3B OF DH SP RP
      1 0.05 0.81 0.19 0.12 0.46 1.60 0.04 0.65 0.08
      ELSE 0.08 0.64 0.28 0.21 0.35 1.54 0.05 0.80 0.04
      • MooseOutFront says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: To add to this, what was the average rounds of SP1 and SP2 for teams that finished in top 3 vs all others?

        • @MooseOutFront: not re-running the query at this point. sorry. i think it’s same story for 2015. drafting SP a little later worked.

      • ChicagoOriole says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: That suggests that winners wait for near equivalents to get drafted then take the bargain player left over, avoiding drafting players with a small incremental value at the time of the pick. That’s pretty standard smart behavior in a draft.

  5. Noam says:
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    This is why I read razzball! Awesome work.

    Some questions:
    How did teams do that took Kershaw with their first pick?

    How did teams do that didn’t take a starting pitcher until the 50th-ish pick?

    This one might not be answerable, but how did teams do that drafted both their MI early v. teams that locked up the CI positions?

    Thanks!

    • Simply Fred

      Fred Barker says:
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      @Noam: Not sure if this is comprehensive enough to satisfy Kershaw question. Nevertheless, this was my analysis of 2015 RCL Kershaw drafting (might be enough to allow Rudy to put his time to other questions…?):

      The ONLY player (qualified) in all of MLB to single-handedly finish at the top of all 3-yr counting cats in RCL…
      Clayton Kershaw
      3-YR STATS tops:
      ERA: .192 (Greinke 2.32)
      WHIP: .89 (Harvey .98)
      W: 53 (Scherzer, tie, 53)
      K: 772 (768 Scherzer)

      For comparison, hitting:
      Runs: 328 Trout (Carpenter 326)
      HR: 126 Chris Davis (Cruz 111)
      RBI: 327 Chris Davis (M.Cabrera 322)
      SB: 132 Dee Gordon (Altuve 129)
      AVG: .332 M.Cabrera (Altuve .313)
      (Just to give perspective regarding ‘sweeping all cats”:
      Chris Davis #160 in AVG: .252
      Altuve in HR…?)
      (stats from Fangraphs qualified players 2013 through 2015)

      Is there ANY doubt that Kershaw should NOT be your UNDISPUTED FIRST round pick?

      Hmmm, glad you asked grasshopper…

      Kershaw was drafted in the first round in 23 of the top 30 First Place finishers’ leagues in RCL in 2015.
      He was drafted by THE First Place Finisher in those top 30 teams—ONCE!!!

    • @Noam: Here are the stats per 1st round pick:

      Jose Abreu 101 73.0
      Paul Goldschmidt 101 68.3
      Miguel Cabrera 101 66.9
      Mike Trout 101 66.8
      Giancarlo Stanton 101 64.9
      Andrew McCutchen 101 59.2
      Clayton Kershaw 100 62.0
      Carlos Gomez 100 56.6
      Edwin Encarnacion 96 65.2
      Anthony Rizzo 83 72.4
      Jose Bautista 83 67.4
      Adam Jones 51 62.2
      Felix Hernandez 28 53.7
      Troy Tulowitzki 25 62.2
      Anthony Rendon 10 63.6
      Robinson Cano 9 49.7
      Yasiel Puig 7 67.5
      Josh Donaldson 4 80.4
      Jose Altuve 4 63.9
      Bryce Harper 2 60.8
      Freddie Freeman 2 54.8
      Ian Desmond 1 95.5
      Adrian Beltre 1 61.0
      • TheTinDoor says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: The lesson we all should learn: Ian Desmond is awesome

          • TheTinDoor says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: It’s hard to make any sense of that data. The 7 dudes who drafted Puig beat the 4 teams drafting Harper. Better of drafting Rizzo than Trout, etc. There may be some signal but all I’m seeing is noise

            • Yes definitely noise when you have small samples. No signal in the single digit instances.

    • Noam: d>

      # of SPs in first 4 rounds Count Avg Pts 0 486 66.0 1 523 65.8 2 176 60.8 3 24 59.3 4 3 55.7

      a href=”#comment-2511168″>Noam:

      # of SPs in first 4 rounds Count Avg Pts
      0 486 66.0
      1 523 65.8
      2 176 60.8
      3 24 59.3
      4 3 55.7
  6. SefSef says:
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    One more if you got time:

    Best punt strategy? Saves, SB’s, Catcher, or MI?

    Thanks again :D

    • SefSef says:
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      @SefSef: I usually punt them all hahaha!

    • @SefSef: too general. i’m asking for one question – not 4. that said, Catcher. Not even close.

  7. King Daddy Crunch says:
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    For teams that did better, what was the average number of SP taken in the draft, and average number of RP taken? Can you create ratios for the ideal number of starters/ relievers?

    How did teams that drafted quality set up men and relatively punted saves late do versus teams that used their later round picks to get lower tier closers?

    • @King Daddy Crunch:
      The top 20% of teams averaged 6 SPs, 4.6 RPs
      The bottom 80% of teams averaged 6.9 SPs, 3.6 RPs

      Type of RPs is more challenging. Here’s the performance of teams by RP which might give you some info…

      Name Teams ADP Avg Std PTS
      Addison Reed 101 204.8 64.1
      Andrew Miller 101 186.3 71.7
      Aroldis Chapman 101 50.6 67.8
      Brad Boxberger 101 207.6 69.6
      Brett Cecil 101 205.3 72
      Cody Allen 101 108 72.1
      Craig Kimbrel 101 59.8 66
      David Robertson 101 99.3 71.7
      Dellin Betances 101 113.4 69.9
      Drew Storen 101 135.7 72.5
      Fernando Rodney 101 148.6 62.9
      Francisco Rodriguez 101 171.9 73
      Glen Perkins 101 145 66.1
      Greg Holland 101 68.8 61.4
      Hector Rondon 101 169.1 70.5
      Huston Street 101 133.5 68.6
      Jake McGee 101 197.9 59.6
      Jenrry Mejia 101 217.8 67.4
      Joaquin Benoit 101 154 72.5
      Joe Nathan 101 205.1 63.8
      Jonathan Papelbon 101 146.6 60.8
      Ken Giles 101 210.4 67.5
      Kenley Jansen 101 115.4 62.9
      Koji Uehara 101 130.7 64.7
      Luke Gregerson 101 218.9 70.9
      Mark Melancon 101 96.7 65.3
      Neftali Feliz 101 190.4 67.1
      Santiago Casilla 101 203 72.3
      Sean Doolittle 101 199 66.8
      Steve Cishek 101 130.3 63.7
      Trevor Rosenthal 101 108.7 64.7
      Tyler Clippard 101 208 72.6
      Wade Davis 101 221.6 69.1
      Zach Britton 101 144.4 67.9
      LaTroy Hawkins 99 243 71.8
      Bobby Parnell 90 263.6 72.2
      Joakim Soria 81 250.9 73.2
      Sergio Romo 77 268.7 71.5
      Kevin Quackenbush 72 267.5 68.3
      Tony Watson 60 270.2 68.2
      Danny Farquhar 59 265.3 70.6
      Joel Peralta 57 262.3 71.6
      Edward Mujica 54 251.1 71.9
      Rafael Soriano 52 268.6 63.5
      Pat Neshek 51 272.7 68.2
      • Jvanslyke says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        Does Grey fly commercial or do you guys let him use the Razzball jet?

        Rudy, this is great stuff. Last yr I fell in love with top tier closers for krate purposes. Above really hedges me towards second/third tier closers and being smart with my holds guys.

        • @Jvanslyke: commercial :) no jet….yet. i agree. i changed my $ last year so that RP values are capped to reflect standard drafts. Found it’s helped tamp down the relievers in the rankings and maxes the value better. RCL is all about RP volume vs. elite RPs.

  8. de nachos says:
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    Excellent post, thank you. Is there a relationship between teams that made more waiver wire moves and RCL success? Did any teams with lots of moves reach any point of diminishing returns? And related, is it possible to show a percentage of FA pickups (hitting vs pitching) and if streaming heavy one way or another benefited teams?

    • @de nachos: I don’t have # of moves in the 2015 standings but I’ve done research on this that shows it is a huge variable – 2nd only to end of season value of drafted team. I have never seen a hitter/pitcher split.

      Here is a chart with the average standings points based on AB and IP. AB and IP maximization correlates very well with # of moves:

      AB IP
      > 1 STDEV 88.8 88.0
      W/in +/- 1 STDEV 68.5 63.7
      < 1 STDEV 42.7 48.3
  9. King Daddy Crunch says:
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    This may be harder to quantify, but did the strategy of picking up a higher percentage of hitters with multi-position eligibility affect standings? What about those that prioritized multi-position eligibility in the first 12 rounds of the draft, which limits the pool to the top 150 or so ranked players? How about those that stacked rosters with a skewed percentage of MPE players?

    • @King Daddy Crunch: Hard to say since the player’s performance is such a big variable. Here are the results for teams by player that drafted a multi-pos hitter:

      Player ESPN Pos # of Leagues ADP Avg Std Pts
      Danny Santana SS/OF 101 140.1 71.5
      Xander Bogaerts SS/3B 101 123.2 71.9
      Anthony Rendon 2B/3B 101 23.4 61.7
      Carlos Santana 1B/3B 101 59.7 66.5
      Ryan Zimmerman 3B/OF 101 106.6 66.1
      Brandon Moss 1B/OF 101 125 65.1
      Mark Trumbo 1B/OF 101 96.9 66.1
      Ben Zobrist 2B/SS/OF 101 161.7 63
      Todd Frazier 1B/3B 101 55.5 68
      Josh Harrison 3B/OF 101 144.7 62.2
      Buster Posey C/1B 101 35.9 60.8
      Chris Davis 1B/3B 101 50.6 72.3
      Steve Pearce 1B/OF 101 205.7 67.8
      Martin Prado 2B/3B 100 216.6 57.5
      Brett Lawrie 2B/3B 99 224.1 68.7
      Yasmani Grandal C/1B 95 246.2 64.6
      Arismendy Alcantara 2B/OF 94 248.7 59.1
      Javier Baez 2B/SS 91 203.2 64.6
      Marcus Semien 2B/3B 84 248.1 68.4
      Asdrubal Cabrera 2B/SS 84 263.8 60.8
      Michael Morse 1B/OF 56 252.5 64.9
      Luis Valbuena 2B/3B 19 267.5 69.8
      Emilio Bonifacio 2B/OF 11 272.7 75.8
      Allen Craig 1B/OF 3 218.3 48.5
      Alexi Amarista 2B/SS/3B/OF 2 292.5 56.5
      Stephen Drew 2B/SS 1 211 27.5
      Mark Reynolds 1B/3B 1 294 40.5
  10. BitchesBeShoppach says:
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    Nice article Rudy! Had my draft this weekend. Was just wondering what your thoughts were on my team. 12 team h2h 3 player keeper league. Standard scoring but we do obp instead of avg and qs instead of wins.

    C – Castillo
    1b – Goldy (Keeper)
    2b – Schoop
    SS – Segura
    3B – Arenado (Keeper)
    OF – Trout (Keeper)
    OF – Khrush
    OF – DeShields
    UTL – Belt

    SP – Salazar
    SP – Matz
    SP – Ventura
    SP – Corbin
    SP – Moore
    SP – Kennedy
    Closer – Giles
    Bench – Ozuna
    Bench – Daniel Norris

    • Not Rudy says:
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      @BitchesBeShoppach: I think his reply might just be “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

      Just a hunch.

    • Rabbit says:
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      @BitchesBeShoppach: “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.” Didn’t you read the article?

      • BitchesBeShoppach says:
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        cot damnit. My bad

  11. Ben says:
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    Since I suck at valuing RP’s this is sort of a two-parter:

    1.)What was the average round where players took their first RP?

    2.)On average, How many RP’s were drafted per team?

    • @Ben: The average RPs drafted is 3.8 with the top 20% finishers averaging 4.6 and the bottom 80% averaging 3.6.

      My query said the average 1st RP per team was the 174th pick with less than 15% drafting an RP in the 1st 100 rounds. Seems crazy late to me but clearly SAGNOF reigns in RCL.

  12. Taylor says:
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    In 12 team league, what are the optimal rounds to take first 2 SPs? (E.g sp1 in 4th and sp2 in 7th)

    • @Taylor: I don’t think there are optimal rounds. I’ve noted above the averages for top teams. Top teams drafted SPs later but it’s possible that’s because they skew active on pickups/streaming/AB+IP maximization.

      Personally, I vary by draft based on the room. Have 15-team leagues with SPs as my 2nd/3rd and 4th/5th. Have a 12-team with Kershaw as my #1 and another with 4th/5th. I prefer two top 20 SPs but don’t see it as ‘optimal’ per se.

  13. Andrew says:
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    I’m trying to determine how many SPs I need in my 12 team NFBC league. Can you tell me how many IPs the contending teams finished with. I’m assuming the category targets you posted last week will work for NFBC, one I account for the extra C, etc.

    • @Andrew:
      All Teams: 8.9 SP / 3.9 RP
      Top 20% Finishers: 9.3 SP / 3.7 RP
      Bottom 80% Finishers: 8.8 SP / 3.95 RP

    • @Andrew: No on pithcing targets. I think NFBC’s more SP-heavy (like a lot of weekly leagues with FAAB) so the pitching is probably low across the board on the targets. Hitting yes (with adding something like 40/8/40/2) and maybe taking off a .001 in AVG.

  14. Rabbit says:
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    Not sure this is answerable, as I am not certain how to quantify the question, but I figure I’ll throw this out there and see what you can make of it: “How much is a team’s success attributable to its draft, and how much is attributable to its in-season moves?” You might look at this by seeing how many in-season moves the 1st and 2nd placing teams made vs. other teams, or how the average standings points of the drafted players on those 1st/2nd place teams compared to the average standings points of drafted players on other teams and/or how they compared to the average standings points of players they picked up. The point is to answer the question, “If you screw up your draft, can you come back to win? Or, what’s the threshold for when have you dug yourself into such a bad hole at the draft that there’s no coming back?”

  15. I'mgettingsomeHeadley says:
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    In weekly leagues such as Scout, how important is it to activate 2 start pitchers? I subscribe to the player rater that gives us the $ value, but sometimes it’s a green and red for the 2 starts. I’m just wondering if 2 start pitchers are automatic starts unless each start is negative value. Your general thoughts please. Whew,lol.

    • @I’mgettingsomeHeadley: Only if they are positive value. I’d rather have a one start pitcher with a $10 start than a two-start pitcher with a sum of $3. The two-start fetish is more justified in H2H where you can risk more since the ratios are wiped away.

  16. Charles says:
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    What percent of a team’s success is derived from the draft vs in-season acquisitions (or lack thereof)? Obviously both important, but is it like 90/10 or 50/50 or 10/90?

  17. Fever Dog says:
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    10-team, H2H, 5×5, Keeping 3

    My league drafted last night. This is the first time in a lot of years I don’t have Kershaw, opting to keep Correa, Arenado, and Rizzo instead. I am…nervous. Here’s what I’m looking at. What do you think?

    c-Wellington Castillo
    1b-Rizzo
    2b-Schoop
    3b-Arenado
    ss-Correa
    of-Marte, Justin Upton, Polanco
    util-Belt, Hosmer
    sp-Strasburg, Tyson Ross, Corbin, Samardzija, Shields, Hammel, Nola, Matz, Kennedy
    rp-Robertson, Cishek, Vizcaino
    n/a-Glasnow

    I took the SAGNOF thang and Grey’s general idea of punting catchers and RPs to a whole new level. Same with 2B (I didn’t grab Schoop until the 19th round). Not sure what to make of my pitching staff. I think I followed the pairings thing pretty well, but I could be wrong. THREE times the guy just before me took the guy I wanted (with DeGrom, Syndergaard, and Gio).

    • Fever Dog says:
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      @Fever Dog: Cut off the last part of my post!

      ALSO: Matt Moore is available. Should I grab him over any of my current SPs?

      Any feedback is great.

      As always: THANK YOU!

    • Not Rudy says:
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      @Fever Dog: I think his reply might just be “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

      Just a hunch.

      • Fever Dog says:
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        @Not Rudy: Word. Will do.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Fever Dog: How is this a whole other level of SAGNOF and punting catchers? Castillo is his 5th ranked catcher and you have a top closer. Offense is tight.

      • Fever Dog says:
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        @Cram It: I just mean I didn’t draft Castillo until the 20th round. Took Robertson in the 18th.

      • Fever Dog says:
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        @Cram It: And thank you re: the offense.

  18. Swfcdan says:
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    Seeing as Grey’s on a plane today can I ask here.

    Do need pitching in my dynasty league, been offered Yordano and Pujols for Miggy.

    I know Pujols is old but I’m all in this year and likely gone the next, get a young arm in Yordano anyway. I would like it in most leagues as don’t feel there is a massive difference between the 1B, however this league uses TB over HRs which makes Miggy much more valuable. Yordano would make a big difference in a 16 teamer to my rotation though.

    I have to see if Pujols is healthy first, but if he is would it be worth doing?

    • FrankGrimes says:
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      @Swfcdan:
      I’d pass.

    • 2511193″>Swfcdan: read post. “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

  19. Charles says:
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    For H2H leagues, how well would a “punt power” strategy work? Thinking of loading up on pitching early and targeting bats with high R, SB, and AVG potential.

    • FrankGrimes says:
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      @Charles:
      Look up the Marmol Therory instead.

    • Cram It says:
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      @Charles: Do it and let us know!

    • @Charles: i have read about the strategy – has a forgettable name. It can definitely work if no one else tries it – especially if people don’t catch on and grab your targets as you make them more scarce. I’m not a fan of it (but i’m generally not a fan of punting categories aside from maybe SB/SV in H2H)

        • That’s it – thanks!

        • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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          @Justin Mason: more shandler referencing here.

  20. Yescheese says:
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    This is great, thank you Rudy.

    What was the average number of total transactions for 1st place teams, versus 2nd and 3rd?

    How many 1st place teams did Not have at least one top 10 CI?

    What was the dominant offensive and pitching category (highest deviation from mean?) for 1st place teams?

    Feel free to answer any or all – thanks Rudy!

    • @Charles: I don’t have transaction counts but it’s definitely high. I can’t access my league from last year but I think 200 picks is the floor to compete for a league crown.

  21. Dusty says:
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    Wait wait wait. Did Grey just draft Dee Gordon?!?!

    • @Dusty: yeah, he’ll have to explain that one himself

  22. DonnieB says:
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    I have to decide today on my last keeper in a 12 team keeper league between the following:
    Fielde for one year at $10
    Chapman for one year at $15
    Kershaw for two tear at $60
    Heyward for two years at $24
    Lawrie at two years for $5
    Hamels for one year at $22
    The league has a $300 cap with lots of inflation. Already have Tout,Arenado,Betts,CSeager, Belt at $7,Thor, and Salazar. Won title last year. Who should be my eighth keeper?

      • DonnieB says:
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        what?

        • @DonnieB: the post asked to please only comment on something pertinent to the post. i answered only b/c of your time constraint.

  23. Swaggerjackers says:
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    What is the ideal number of starting pitchers to draft in be first 10 rounds?

    First 15 rounds?

    • @Swaggerjackers: There is no ideal. But average for top 20% of teams was 2.3 SPs in 1st 10, 3.5 SPs in 1st 15.

  24. SF says:
    (link)

    How many teams won drafting a starting pitcher in the first 3 rounds?

    What was the latest round a winning team drafted a starting pitcher?

    • DonnieB says:
      (link)

      I won second overall in NFBC Main Event last year drafting Kershaw in first round and the overall winner drafted Bumgarner in second round. See article by Vlad Sedler on Fox Sports. It can de done and top pitching likely more critical for an overall title than a league title. Of course, it helped that both of us drafted Arrieta in rounds 7 and 8. And I drafted Salazar in the 15th.

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @DonnieB: I’m assuming that’s a 15 team, 50 round slow draft? If so, I’d keep in mind it’s a very different strategy than trying to your win your 12 team Razzball league.

    • @SF: In RCL, 44% of teams drafted 1+ SP in 1st 3 rounds. Average finish 6.7. (Those who didn’t finished w/ 6.3 avg)

      • DonnieB says:
        (link)

        Main Event is 15 team leagues,30 rounds with FAAB. 450 teams in overall

  25. chad says:
    (link)

    Had my 8 team NL only auction this week…thoughts

    C-Mesoraco 2.50 Keeper
    C-Grandal .50 keeper
    1b-Freeman 12.50
    2b-Russell .50 keeper
    ss- Seager .50 keeper
    3b-Carpenter 2.50
    ci-Lamb .50
    mi-Suarez .50 keeper
    of-Harper 6.50 keeper
    of-Puig 6.50 keeper
    of-Marte 17.50
    of-Conforto 1.25 keeper
    of-Span .50 keeper
    u- O. Herrera .50 keeper

    sp-Kershaw 22.50
    sp- Cole 2.50 keeper
    sp- Teheran 8.25
    sp-Corbin .50 keeper
    sp- A. Wood .50 keeper
    sp- Jungman .75
    rp- Jeffress 1.00
    rp- Hoover 2.00
    rp- Papelbon 5.00

    • Not Rudy says:
      (link)

      @chad: I think his reply might just be “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

      Just a hunch.

  26. Van Hammersly says:
    (link)

    What an awesome idea! Hope you don’t go mad, Rudy.

    I’ve heard some ‘perts advocate for a “drain the pool” strategy in both auctions and snake drafts. For example, the Gianella/Sayre team that won last year’s Mixed LABR drafted Tulo and Desmond, both SS, with their first 2 picks, and supported this decision–I think–by pointing to the steep decline in SS talent that would follow. I think they also were hoping to persuade the other teams to panic and reach for a SS in the 2nd or 3rd round. (While Desmond was a negative value no matter where he was drafted in 2015, I would argue that Mike and Bret were able to win the league in spite of this strategy–mostly b/c they expertly picked Cole, Arrieta, and DeGrom as the foundation of their rotation.)

    I’ve seen this happen with Catchers over the years, too. Mike Gianella bought 4 (!) Catchers in the NL Tout Wars auction yesterday for a combined $55. I recall Mike or someone else on Twitter citing “draining the Catcher pool” as the reason behind the thinking (along with the dynamics of the auction, I imagine).

    As you can tell, I kind of think this strategy is horseshit. But is it? Can the RCL data tell us anything about the success of teams that drafted, e.g.:

    * 2 players with the same position eligibility with their first two picks?

    * 2 middle infielders with their first two picks? 3 middle infielders with their first five picks?

    * 2 catchers with their first eight to ten picks? (Even though the RCLs are 1-catcher leagues, I’ve definitely seen teams draft multiple at the position.)

    Please chime in if you’ve had any experience with this strategy before… maybe you’ll convince me of its merits. Thanks!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Van Hammersly: Sounds like horseshit to me. Like you said, they won DESPITE drafting SS 1 and 2, not because of it.

    • @Van Hammersly:Thanks. I agree / Cram It. Drain the pool is horseshit. Good players don’t get on tilt in a draft room from this strategy – though I will say from Yahoo F&F experience – drafting with a couple of active SP drafters can make for misery (that draft is tomorrow…though this years’ deep SP1 pool makes it easier)

      • Van Hammersly says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: Yeah, I thought you’d be skeptical too, Rudy. There’s definitely a sect of ‘perts who I think tend to overthink things and go a little too far with comparing drafting to various poker strategies. Going back to my original comment, why would you actively make your team shittier by drafting the top 2 Shortstops for the purpose of trying to throw other managers off?

        Good luck at F&F tomorrow night. I thought Grey killed it at the NL auction yesterday., and eagerly await his write-up about the experience.

        • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
          (link)

          @Van Hammersly: not one good poker or any other game theory based game would involve stupid as F “strategies” such as those.

  27. FKA Ralph says:
    (link)

    Can you see how teams performed when they filled, say all hitters except their final two hitter spots early (maybe had them all filled by round 14 or so) then waited and drafted upside types as their final hitters super late?

    I’m wondering whether there is a quantifiable way to show whether you really are better off investing very little in those last hitter spots and just working the WW.

    Thanks!

    • @FKA Ralph: Only 3% of teams drafted 12-13 hitters in 1st 15 rounds. Average finish was 7th (vs 6.5 being the average)

      • MooseOutFront says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: awesome data point. Thanks Rudy.

        Would love to see the same data for 8/10 and 9/10 hitters in 1st 10 picks.

      • FKA Ralph says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: thank you!

        If you’ll indulge me, I’m also wondering how teams that did not fill their final hitting spot until the final two rounds fared.

        Thank you so much!

        • @FKA Ralph: too wonky to calculate…. i don’t think anything will be gleaned from it anyway – this is totally viable…just depends on position + draft + player pool….

  28. Bterry says:
    (link)

    What was the highest position a team finished that had at least half their starts come via the stream ?How did they fair in the 5 pitching categories when it was all said and done?

  29. L-Boogie says:
    (link)

    very straightforward question. success by draft position. I think you guys did a whole post last year. is there an advantage to picking first?

    • @L-Boogie:

      1 66.8
      2 65.0
      3 61.7
      4 66.7
      5 66.1
      6 64.9
      7 63.5
      8 65.5
      9 65.7
      10 68.8
      11 59.6
      12 65.6
      • MooseOutFront says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: Interesting. Do you have a multi-season look at this data?

        • @MooseOutFront: yes, have published it before. have to get through other comment. in general, top > bottom.

        • @MooseOutFront: for 2014….

          Pick Avg Std Pts
          1 71.04102579
          2 69.98265278
          3 67.63117063
          4 67.02548016
          5 60.88029167
          6 58.70265873
          7 63.72662698
          8 67.55357143
          9 63.92900794
          10 61.26706349
          11 65.85837202
          12 65.74207837
          • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
            (link)

            @Rudy Gamble: that meshes with shandler’s results, and he shows that every year.

  30. FrankGrimes says:
    (link)

    The waiver wire is important during the season but are you more likely to win your league with all your first maybe 6 picks performing to expectations or If you hit on players later in the second half of draft?

    • @FrankGrimes:
      Top 20% teams: First 6 picks: $133, Rest of Picks: $117
      Bottom 80% teams: First 6 picks: $112, Rest of Picks: $94

      (Any negative players counted as $0)

  31. Strolg says:
    (link)

    Have you ever done a correlation between a pitcher’s Stream-o-Nator number and what his actual stats ended up being. For instance, if you take all the pitchers last year who had a SON number between 0-3, what was their WHIP, K’s, ERA and win percentage. Then you could do it for 3-6 and so on.

  32. los locos says:
    (link)

    Hi Rudy

    Just had my draft last night, 5×5 OBP & QS, K/9. Can you grade my team overall, I used Razzball OBP rankings, with some other ranking from Rotowire & RotoExperts. Its a 10 team keeper league, where we kept 7 players. I kept Arenado, Seager, Marte and JD mart. For pitching I held Kershaw, Straugburg and Salazar. After the draft other teams said I should addressed my 1st base. I wanted Hosmer or Pujols, but I felt I could of got them in the 2nd rd, which would be our 9th.. but damn both went before me. I took Heyward instead of them. I hoping someone breaks out possibly in the start of the season, like a Matt Adams, Zimmerman or Chris Carter. But how does my team look for 2016.

    Batters

    Pos Players
    C Yasmani Grandal C | LAD
    1B Carlos Santana 1B | CLE
    2B Ian Kinsler 2B | DET
    3B Nolan Arenado 3B | COL
    SS Corey Seager SS | LAD
    OF Jason Heyward OF | CHC
    OF Starling Marte OF | PIT
    OF J.D. Martinez OF | DET
    U Hunter Pence OF | SF
    1B Brandon Belt 1B | SF
    1B Mark Trumbo 1B,OF | BAL
    2B Kolten Wong 2B | STL
    SS Starlin Castro 2B,SS | NYY
    SS Eugenio Suarez SS | CIN
    OF Domingo Santana OF | MIL
    Pitchers

    Pos Players
    SP Clayton Kershaw SP | LAD
    SP Jake Odorizzi SP | TB
    SP Michael Pineda SP | NYY
    SP Danny Salazar SP | CLE
    SP Stephen Strasburg SP | WAS
    RP Dellin Betances RP | NYY
    RP Craig Kimbrel RP | BOS
    SP Jose Berrios SP | MIN
    SP Jason Hammel SP | CHC
    SP Eduardo Rodriguez SP | BOS

    • Not Rudy says:
      (link)

      @los locos: I think his reply might just be “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

      Just a hunch.

      • los locos says:
        (link)

        @Not Rudy: ah! i see. no problem.

  33. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
    (link)

    Wow, awesome stuff! Thanks!

    1. How did teams who drafted Dominic Brown do in their leagues?

    2. And a more serious one . . . is it possible to see how teams who drafted mostly NL starters did compared to AL starters?

  34. Jofer says:
    (link)

    Every few years, I like to punt SP in my 14-team league. Does the data support this approach?

    • @Jofer: I only have 12 team data. There is no inherent advantage or disadvantage to this strategy – depends on in-season moves plus how your leaguemates play (aggressive on streaming/pickups vs not…)

  35. Mel

    littlecf24 says:
    (link)

    Picking 7th overal in a 12 team H2H 5×5 league.

    Debating building a team around pure power (ie Giancarlo/ E5) or balance (Machado/Betts/Springer).

    Did more powerful teams succeed at a higher rate than teams with balance (lower HR totals but Higher SB/Avg/Runs)?

    Thanks

    • @littlecf24: i do not have H2H data. This is hard to measure but maybe this helps somewhat:

      Average percentile per category of top 100 RCLers (out of 1212):

      avg r hr rbi sb
      0.675816832 0.873894389 0.809207921 0.843226073 0.75269802
      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: shander’s also (or maybe it was you rudy) shown that runs is highest correlated 5×5 stat for winning teams.

  36. Keep your speedster says:
    (link)

    I have long subscribed that power wins leagues, not speed and average. I aim to be middle of the pack in avg and sb while leading HR.

    I’d be curious to know of league winners, the average category finish spot in HR vs SB.

  37. Chicken Dinner says:
    (link)

    How did teams do that took 1B in the first two rounds?

    • Chicken Dinner says:
      (link)

      @Chicken Dinner: How about OF first 2 rounds or 3B first two as well?

      • Chicken Dinner says:
        (link)

        @L-Boogie: @Chicken Dinner: If these are answerable questions, how did they do if they took 2 SP in first 2 rounds?

        Also, if they took 2MI in first 5 rounds.

    • @Chicken Dinner:

      Name # of Leagues adp (when in top 2 rds) avg std pts
      Anthony Rizzo 101 10.3861 70.75248
      Edwin Encarnacion 101 9.7228 64.89604
      Jose Abreu 101 5.5743 72.99010
      Miguel Cabrera 101 6.5743 66.92079
      Paul Goldschmidt 101 4.5248 68.29208
      Freddie Freeman 30 20.1667 52.30000
      Albert Pujols 5 23.4000 78.30000
      Adrian Gonzalez 2 16.0000 47.25000
      Chris Carter 1 22.0000 44.00000
      name # of leagues adp (when in first 2 rds) avg std pts
      Josh Donaldson 91 17.6154 75.74725
      Adrian Beltre 62 19.7258 61.72581
      Nolan Arenado 27 20.6296 75.59259
      Kris Bryant 1 18.0000 88.00000

      About 10% (128) drafted 2+ MI in first 3 rounds. Average standings points of 62.5 where the other ~90% averaged 65.3.

  38. Andrew Ringer says:
    (link)

    What was the average round that the winning team took their first and second RP? What was the average round that the winner took its first catcher?

  39. Det. John Kimble says:
    (link)

    How did teams do that placed a very low price on closers at their draft?

    In an auction league I essentially live on the wire for my closers and that’s proved to be effective for me.

    • @Det. John Kimble:
      In RCL, that’s not a good strategy – at least in total investment of RP:

      # of Teams Average Finish
      1 STDEV less on RP$ 173 7.77
      b/w +/1 STDEV 831 6.25
      1 STDEV more on RP$ 179 5.92
  40. JIM says:
    (link)

    A couple of trade offers on the table and was wondering if you would offer some thoughts…

    For starters, I’m in a keeper league where we keep all of our players every year and have a 3 round amateur draft prior to every season. It’s a 12 team league. I’m pretty hungry for pitching and am willing to move a big bat.

    I have a few offers on the table.

    A) Donaldson + Jorge Alfaro FOR Freeman + Moustakas + Profar + Y. Ventura + R. Osuna
    B) Donaldson FOR Freeman + Moustakas + Profar + Y. Ventura + Skaggs
    C) Donaldson FOR Freeman + Moustakas + Y. Ventura + H. Harvey + R. Osuna + 2nd round pick
    D) G. Stanton FOR Arrieta + Y. Ventura + R. Osuna + Profar + Grichuk + H. Harvey + 2nd round pick

    Which is your favorite of the deals – can you offer some feedback? Which one is better for this year? Which one is better for the future?

  41. Marti says:
    (link)

    Love your articles. In a 10 team N/L only league where we only start 1 catcher. Auction 260 budget. Other than pose and schwarber, would you punt the position and what is the max you
    would spend on a catcher other than the 2 I listed above.

    • @Marti: I would follow my NL 10 team $ – i don’t make major catcher adjustments. generally i try to stay less than $5. would be all over Hundley or Grandal and, if Hundley, handcuff with Murphy in reserves.

  42. Marti says:
    (link)

    Love your articles. In a 10 team N/L only league where we only start 1 catcher. Auction 260 budget. Other than pose and schwarber, would you punt the position and what is the max you
    would spend on a catcher other than the 2 I listed above?

  43. Thor says:
    (link)

    Can the data be used to test your great recent post about drafting based on position scarcity? Maybe a way to frame this would be, did many of the successful teams invest early in scarce positions, ahead of the actual expected value of their stats?

    • @Thor: @Thor: i didn’t archive my $ projections but took a SWAG using all MIs chosen in first 100 picks and all catchers taken in first 150 picks

      Name ADP Avg Std Pts Index
      Combined 64.2 62.5 96.2
      Troy Tulowitzki 15.1 63.6 97.8
      Robinson Cano 17.3 55.2 84.9
      Jose Altuve 19.0 70.1 107.9
      Ian Desmond 21.9 59.7 91.9
      Anthony Rendon 23.4 61.7 94.9
      Buster Posey 35.9 60.8 93.6
      Jose Reyes 49.0 59.9 92.1
      Ian Kinsler 60.2 60.1 92.4
      Brian Dozier 65.2 66.1 101.6
      Dee Gordon 66.6 74.5 114.6
      Kolten Wong 69.4 67.1 103.2
      Jason Kipnis 70.5 65.6 100.9
      Starlin Castro 87.0 62.4 96.1
      Jonathan Lucroy 92.4 55.5 85.4
      Dustin Pedroia 93.8 59.2 91.1
      Alexei Ramirez 100.3 64.3 98.9
      Devin Mesoraco 119.0 55.5 85.5
      Yan Gomes 150.2 64.3 98.9
      • Thor says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: I think I lack the sophistication needed to decipher your reply.

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Thor: Haha. Looks like the “scarce” positions and their ADP. Seems to be a sweet spot after round 5 (Dozier to Castro) for not investing early and getting the payoff.

          • Thor says:
            (link)

            @Cram It: ah, thanks!

            • Thor says:
              (link)

              @Thor: what is index and what is standard points?

              • Cram It says:
                (link)

                @Thor: Std Points should be that teams average points in their leagues standings. Index should be that RCL leagues overall Index rating compared to other RCL leagues. I’m just deducing though, could be wrong.

        • @Thor: basically teams that drafted a player whose Index < 100 performed worse than average (65 standings points) and vice versa. No surprise that Dee Gordon had highest index since he overperformed on AVG and didn't regress as expected on SB.

  44. Ogre You Asshole says:
    (link)

    Morning

    12 Team H2H 5X5 Yahoo

    1st pick

    C – Relmuto
    1B – Goldy
    2B – Schoop
    3B – Frazier
    SS – Seagar
    OF – Marte
    OF – C Davis
    OF – Belt
    UTIL – Griuchuk
    UTIL – A Gordob
    B – Suarez

    SP – Archer
    SP – Salazar
    SP – Walker
    SP – Corbin
    SP – Odirizi
    SP – Heaney
    SP – Henricks
    SP – Quintana
    RP – Rondon
    RP – Tolleson
    RP – Hernandez
    RP – Benoit

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Ogre You Asshole: What’s your question? Wait, doesn’t matter, because “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

      • Ogre You Asshole says:
        (link)

        @Cram It:
        My question was what he thinks of my team. My bad, but I appreciate you taking the time out of your busy day to be a sarcastic internet asshole. Big man you are. Lol.

        • @Ogre You Asshole: i had mentioned in today’s post to please refrain from ‘my team’ posts b/c i am focusing on specific types of questions that requires significant focus/attention…

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Ogre You Asshole: You’re welcome! Just doing Rudy’s dirty work since you can’t read, or don’t care to read the material.

        • What's a Drexl? says:
          (link)

          @Ogre You Asshole: no you got it right, just today cram has the “boo” to hide behind, he’d have attempted to troll your post pretty much any day he’s awake.

  45. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Checking the Buster Posey Theory. Can you evaluate average finish of teams who took Posey last year based on where he was selected in the draft. Maybe break it down every 5 picks or so and see if there is any correlation one way or another? 10-14,15-19,20-24,25-29,30-34,35-39, 40+

    • @The Great Knoche:
      didn’t work out super well for Posey drafters

      Name # of Leagues Round Avg Std Pts
      Buster Posey 7 2 57.85714
      Buster Posey 41 3 60.26829
      Buster Posey 46 4 60.68478
      Buster Posey 7 5 67.92857
  46. The discarded head of Ted Williams says:
    (link)

    Catchers and RP!

    Do teams that invest high in catchers or RP do better then teams that do not?

    I always wonder if getting a guy like chapman or posey is worth it.

    Another way of asking is, for these two all in or punt positions, where do the winning teams normally go?

    • @The discarded head of Ted Williams: I think i’ve answered these somewhere in the comments. Summary: Wait until late for catchers (especially in 1 catcher leagues) and, in a format like RCL, volume of relievers more important than getting a top RP.

  47. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    Is there any way you can measure the success of streamed pitchers versus pitchers rostered for longer periods?

    • FrankGrimes says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve:
      what about bench at end of draft?
      I don’t usually bench bats but
      filling it with sagnof/streamers vs late round fliers like Park, KMarte or Domingo etc?

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @FrankGrimes: I wouldn’t put Park as a late round flyer. His ADP is too high

      • @FrankGrimes: here’s the performance by team based on # of drafted pitchers….

        # of Teams Avg Std Pts
        9 188 64.1
        10 372 64.3
        11 408 65.1
        12 244 66.6
    • de nachos says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: just make sure you throw out the ridiculously good stats of Oaktown-streamed-pitchers, definitely will skew the data ;)

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @de nachos:

        I was just mentioning that to Jack a couple of days ago. Had the run where I picked a winner like 18-20 days in a row a few years back.

    • @OaktownSteve: i don’t have that data. i think in competitive streaming-heavy leagues, it’s crazy to dump an SP with an upcoming start in next 5 days or so that’s streamable.

  48. Zeus says:
    (link)

    Iglesias or Rodon in QS league? ?

  49. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
    (link)

    Ok, just had my draft and I had asked you for a bit of advice during one of your last articles… Here are the results. Let me know what you think!

    5×5 (avg, not obp), H2H , Auction, 12 team

    C – Hundley
    1 – Goldy (k)
    2 – Castro
    3 – Arenado (k)
    SS – K Marte
    OF – Harper (k)
    OF – Marte (k)
    OF – Conforto (for a dollar!!! Most excited about this pick!)
    Util – Rizzo (k)
    Util – Hicks
    SP – Kershaw, Carrasco, Odorizzi, Walker, Chen, Fiers, Nola, Giolito, Norris
    RP – Clippard, Bailey, Colome (I dont pay for RP’s in our league, they go for an obscene amount. I SAGNOF! :) )

    There were way too many SP1’s being kept, so I just bit down and went for kershaw.

    • Troy: The Collector

      Troy says:
      (link)

      @Bryce Krispie Treats: wrong post, isn’t answering stuff like this. Ask grey tomorrow. Said that in the first couple lines of the post

      • What's a Drexl? says:
        (link)

        @Troy: grey did answer posts in his most recent.

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Bryce Krispie Treats: You got to keep Goldy, Rizzo, Arenado, Harper and Marte. You’d have to try pretty hard to mess this up.

  50. Troy: The Collector

    Troy says:
    (link)

    Dunno if someone asked this but very curious. How do teams look who took either a ss or a 2b in the first 2 rounds.

    • @Troy: the average team had 65 standing points.

      Name # of Leagues adp (when taken in 1st 2 rds) avg std pts
      Troy Tulowitzki 101 15.0990 63.57921
      Robinson Cano 95 16.6316 55.08421
      Jose Altuve 93 18.3226 70.86022
      Ian Desmond 74 19.9459 60.41892
      Anthony Rendon 63 16.2857 63.89683
      Ian Kinsler 1 24.0000 69.50000
  51. The Big Yabu says:
    (link)

    Okay, I’m trying to figure out a way of calculating the threshold for SP that’s worth owning in an RCL, rather than stream:

    (1) Direct comparison could be something like: average start of SP given positive $ by SON (or $ > 5? $ > 10? — not sure how many instances there were of each) but owned in less than 50% of leagues, multiplied by 30. How many individual SPs did better over the course of the season? How many of those were highly ranked before the season?

    (2) More complicated comparison would take into account the possibility of streaming a few MRs in between SPs. So, would need to add maybe an extra 2 IP per rotation cycle, with average stats for 7th- or 8th-inning guys. Not sure if there’s a feasible way to calculate that, but eyeballing it based on 2015 stats of a few likely candidates (Kelvin Herrera, Pedro Strop, Brett Cecil, Bryan Shaw), it seems like 2.90 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 9.00 K/9 is pretty conservative. So, how would adding 60 IP at those ratios + maybe 4 W change the comparison? How many individual SPs did better than SON-SPs+MRs? And how many of those were highly ranked before the season?

    • @The Big Yabu: there isn’t a perfect answer there and really depends on your league. my rcl has a lot of streaming. i only draft 3-4 SP and then will stream the rest – but often holding a guy for multiple starts if his schedule looks good. But if SPs went at a CRAZY discount and I could get top 30 SPs later in draft, I’d zag.

      • The Big Yabu says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks for the response. I realize that a lot of this is going to be league-dependent, but I thought it might be helpful to get some kind of numerical comparison as a base-line, which could then be adjusted to the particulars of the league. Is it feasible to carry out the kind of analyses I mentioned? And if so, do you think that they would at least begin to address the issue I’m wondering about?

        • @The Big Yabu: Too driven by in-season moves which we don’t collect. But this is the general ‘RCL winning formula’ that i outlined two years ago. (https://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-strategy-maximizing-innings-pitched/) . Middle relievers essential to maximizing IP in GS cap leagues. which helps every category (occaisional save and/or falls into closer role). Too much opportunity cost in holding onto SPs that aren’t 1) elite or 2) have a worthwhile start coming up (as measured by our Streamonator).

  52. Uncle Larry Walker says:
    (link)

    I drafted 11 out of 12 in our yearly 7×7 (OBP & Batter Ks + Holds & QS) which has been running for 15 years now. I did 30 mocks. When draft time came I left the 2nd round with 2 players i had never drafted in any of the mocks. I thought maybe I went into panic-mode and made some bad picks, but after a full review today I think I did ok? Your thoughts?
    Miggy
    Arenado
    Gerrit Cole
    deGrom
    Cargo
    Tulo (I hated this…but I have people trying to make trades now)
    Yelich
    Polanco
    Giles
    DeShields
    Zobrist
    Carlos Rondon
    Santiago Casilla
    Conforto
    Jordan Zimmerman
    Gregerson
    Byung-ho Park (fingers crossed for a 17th round lotto pick)
    Grandal
    Trumbo
    Hunter Strickland
    Jeremy Jeffress
    Ketel Marte (to back up Tulo)
    Steve Geltz
    Rajai Davis (SBs!)
    I was thrilled to get handcuff holds guys for both my closers. After looking at Zips projections I’m actually pretty happy with the team. I’d love your input…

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Uncle Larry Walker: “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

      • Uncle Larry Walker says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: But I wanted Rudy’s input…

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Uncle Larry Walker: You’re not special, he’s not giving it. You can have my opinion. I think you have some injury/playing time risks on your offense that’s going to cost you power. Tulo/Cargo pairing is worrisome. Yelich, Polanco, Deshields is taking up to much room in your OF where HR’s could be.

          • The Harrow says:
            (link)

            @Cram It: you certainly aren’t special, you got crammed.

  53. couth says:
    (link)

    Given a balanced 12-team league, you’d expect each player to be on the winning roster about 8% of the time. Using end-of-season dollar values, are any players whose dollar value is less than $10 on more than 15% of the winning teams?

    • @couth: well, here’s average standings points for teams who drafted each player in ~75+% of leagues. i added end of season $. some odd ones in there like Jesse Hahn and K-Rod…

      Player # of Drafts ADP EOS $ Avg Std Pts
      Jake Arrieta 101 82.4752 42.5 78.79208
      Bryce Harper 101 21.198 45.2 75.73267
      Josh Donaldson 101 18.5446 47 75.12871
      Eric Hosmer 101 135.4158 24.4 74.9604
      Dee Gordon 101 66.6139 32.6 74.50495
      Michael Pineda 101 179.9307 4.3 74.42574
      Albert Pujols 101 38 25.3 74.35149
      Gerrit Cole 101 75.7129 25.5 74.25248
      A.J. Pollock 101 142.4059 41 73.9505
      Jesse Hahn 84 261.2857 -3.6 73.84524
      Matt Harvey 101 66.0099 19.4 73.29703
      Joakim Soria 81 250.9136 2.9 73.18519
      Collin McHugh 101 163.4356 12.1 73.18317
      Jose Abreu 101 5.5743 26.2 72.9901
      Francisco Rodriguez 101 171.9406 5.7 72.9505
      Nolan Arenado 101 31.5644 40.6 72.72772
      Tyler Clippard 101 208.0396 2.6 72.56931
      Joaquin Benoit 101 153.9802 1.6 72.5396
      Drew Storen 101 135.6535 2.4 72.48515
      Charlie Blackmon 101 118.1782 29.8 72.34653
      J.D. Martinez 101 127.7921 31.6 72.32673
      Chris Davis 101 50.6337 37.7 72.28713
      Santiago Casilla 101 203.0495 5 72.28713
      Bobby Parnell 90 263.5889 -9.4 72.16667
      Lorenzo Cain 101 199.5347 29.7 72.14356
      Cody Allen 101 107.9604 5.2 72.07921
      Brett Cecil 101 205.3267 1.1 71.95545
      Xander Bogaerts 101 123.2178 17.9 71.85644
      LaTroy Hawkins 99 242.9697 -4.8 71.78788
      David Robertson 101 99.3366 8.1 71.74257
      Andrew Miller 101 186.3366 9.1 71.65842
      Jacob deGrom 101 103.9901 23.5 71.61881
      Max Scherzer 101 21.703 30.8 71.60396
      Danny Santana 101 140.1386 -20.4 71.49505
      Kris Bryant 101 84.0099 27 71.26238
      Avisail Garcia 101 164.0297 2.8 71.24752
      Carlos Carrasco 101 93.6436 17.2 71.21782
      Carlos Gonzalez 101 41.1683 28.5 71.09406
      Joey Votto 101 75.5842 30.3 71.01485
      Luke Gregerson 101 218.8812 6.9 70.91089
      Zack Greinke 101 49.5743 37.5 70.83663
      Anthony Rizzo 101 10.3861 33.6 70.75248
      Manny Machado 101 89.8515 36.7 70.73762
      Hector Rondon 101 169.099 8 70.5099
      Yoenis Cespedes 101 49.8515 35.4 70.35149
      Rajai Davis 88 253.6023 -2.4 70.27273
      Jose Altuve 101 19.0198 30.8 70.11881
      Brandon Belt 101 190.3069 12.5 70.02475
      Dellin Betances 101 113.4158 7.5 69.86634
      Brad Boxberger 101 207.5941 4.9 69.59901
      Lucas Duda 101 131.901 9 69.47525
      David Price 101 37.4851 27.7 69.27228
      Wilson Ramos 98 248.7041 -0.4 69.19898
      Wade Davis 101 221.6337 9 69.11881
      Jason Heyward 101 66.1188 17.2 69.10891
      Mookie Betts 101 81.4554 25.1 69.05446
      Kennys Vargas 89 244.0674 -22.3 68.98876
      Carlos Martinez 89 255.1348 12.2 68.88202
      Steven Souza 101 206.8713 -1 68.86139
      Drew Hutchison 100 205.43 -6.1 68.85
      Wil Myers 101 128.1386 -11.2 68.83168
      Jorge Soler 101 87.901 -7.4 68.77228
      Prince Fielder 101 57.505 22 68.77228
      Billy Hamilton 101 49.9406 8.9 68.74752
      Brett Lawrie 99 224.1313 3.7 68.65657
      Huston Street 101 133.4851 4.8 68.62376
      Joc Pederson 101 139.901 2.5 68.55941
      James Paxton 96 231.7083 -10.6 68.53125
      Khris Davis 101 186.8119 8.2 68.5297
      Taijuan Walker 97 216.9485 3 68.5
      Marcus Semien 84 248.119 2.6 68.36905
      Paul Goldschmidt 101 4.5248 45.6 68.29208
      Alcides Escobar 101 188.2772 1.4 68.19307
      Neil Walker 101 148.2178 7.7 68.16832
      Brandon McCarthy 96 241.5313 -10.8 68.06771
      Todd Frazier 101 55.495 25.8 67.9703
      Zach Britton 101 144.4059 8.1 67.92574
      Starling Marte 101 35.6337 28 67.84653
      Jean Segura 101 159.3366 3.3 67.79703
      Steve Pearce 101 205.6733 -9.5 67.79703
      Aroldis Chapman 101 50.6139 8.8 67.78713
      Mike Fiers 101 187.8812 2.8 67.66337
      Matt Shoemaker 101 185.4356 -3.9 67.61386
      Brian McCann 101 189.9109 16.6 67.60396
      Trevor Bauer 81 264.2469 1.1 67.57407
      Dallas Keuchel 99 211.7576 30.9 67.56061
      Ken Giles 101 210.4257 4.4 67.52475
      Mike Napoli 83 243.9398 -5 67.45181
      Jenrry Mejia 101 217.7921 -7.1 67.39109
      Rougned Odor 101 195.8614 2.6 67.09406
      Neftali Feliz 101 190.4356 -6.6 67.07921
      Kolten Wong 101 69.3762 7.4 67.06931
      Ryan Braun 101 29.8317 29.2 66.94554
      Miguel Cabrera 101 6.5743 14.4 66.92079
      Scooter Gennett 98 228.051 -13.3 66.88776
      Sean Doolittle 101 199.0495 -6.7 66.83168
      Mike Trout 101 1 38.7 66.81188
      Adam Eaton 101 212.2178 18.1 66.63366
      Justin Upton 101 29.4356 22.5 66.61386
      George Springer 101 37.4455 5.4 66.54455
      Desmond Jennings 91 250.1099 -24.9 66.53846
      Curtis Granderson 100 228.63 20.3 66.51
      Adam Jones 101 12.8416 16.3 66.4901
      Carlos Santana 101 59.703 11 66.46535
      Evan Gattis 101 102.0099 16.3 66.38119
      Howie Kendrick 101 167.6436 3.3 66.38119
      Dalton Pompey 96 239.4271 -23.9 66.29688
      Garrett Richards 101 116.2574 10.5 66.25743
      Mark Trumbo 101 96.8713 5.4 66.11386
      Ryan Zimmerman 101 106.6337 -0.1 66.06931
      Brian Dozier 101 65.2277 20.4 66.05941
      Glen Perkins 101 145.0198 2.7 66.05446
      Craig Kimbrel 101 59.8317 8 66.0297
      Yasmany Tomas 101 180.6535 -5.7 66.02475
      Jose Bautista 101 10.7426 36.4 66.0198
      Billy Butler 94 252.2553 0.8 65.92021
      Travis d’Arnaud 99 247.899 -5.1 65.87879
      Hisashi Iwakuma 101 103.0495 4.3 65.80198
      Marcell Ozuna 101 93.3168 -7.3 65.67327
      Gregory Polanco 101 118.5545 11.3 65.65347
      Chris Archer 101 147.4653 18.2 65.62871
      Jason Kipnis 101 70.505 11.5 65.60396
      Phil Hughes 101 162.4653 -2.8 65.56931
      Jay Bruce 101 88.7129 13.2 65.4505
      Marlon Byrd 90 242.3667 6 65.37778
      Hanley Ramirez 101 24.4356 2.6 65.29703
      Mark Melancon 101 96.703 10.1 65.25248
      Chase Headley 98 236.4082 1.2 65.20918
      Michael Brantley 101 26.5941 19.4 65.15842
      Brandon Moss 101 124.9901 -4.3 65.11881
      Masahiro Tanaka 101 112.4455 11.2 65.10891
      Matt Holliday 101 92.7624 -15.3 65.0495
      Adrian Gonzalez 101 46.2079 18.3 64.9505
      Giancarlo Stanton 101 2.7426 7.9 64.92079
      Edwin Encarnacion 101 9.7228 33.4 64.89604
      Michael Wacha 101 128.5743 12.9 64.89604
      Francisco Liriano 101 172.3663 12.1 64.76238
      Trevor Rosenthal 101 108.7426 7.7 64.72772
      Koji Uehara 101 130.6832 1.9 64.71287
      Ben Revere 101 157.1881 14.9 64.66337
      Mat Latos 101 142.7921 -9.6 64.64356
      Yasmani Grandal 95 246.1684 -2.3 64.63158
      Javier Baez 91 203.1868 -27.9 64.56593
      Brett Gardner 101 130.5248 17.5 64.4802
      Oswaldo Arcia 101 177.4158 -26.8 64.41089
      Kyle Seager 101 61.7822 17.3 64.37624
      Corey Dickerson 101 30.3564 -11.3 64.35149
      Corey Kluber 101 36.6535 15.8 64.35149
      Shelby Miller 97 231.5876 3.9 64.34536
      Yan Gomes 101 150.2475 -6.1 64.27723
      Alexei Ramirez 101 100.2772 2.6 64.26733
      Alex Wood 101 108.3663 1.2 64.18812
      Addison Reed 101 204.7822 -4.3 64.10396
      Tyson Ross 101 87.8713 8.5 64.09901
      Jedd Gyorko 101 176.7426 -6.2 63.9703
      Nelson Cruz 101 68.4356 34.9 63.92574
      John Lackey 80 259.1875 13.4 63.91875
      Joe Nathan 101 205.099 -8.4 63.81683
      Jimmy Rollins 101 143.5842 -1.4 63.80198
      Yordano Ventura 101 163.2871 4.7 63.79208
      Jose Fernandez 101 192.1881 -1.5 63.73762
      Melky Cabrera 101 151.7822 7.3 63.73762
      Nathan Eovaldi 96 245.8229 -0.4 63.72917
      Steve Cishek 101 130.297 -5.8 63.72277
      Justin Morneau 101 173.3762 -20.7 63.68812
      Troy Tulowitzki 101 15.099 9.6 63.57921
      Matt Kemp 101 56.3564 22.4 63.5198
      Kevin Gausman 93 245.172 -6 63.46237
      Drew Smyly 101 197.2772 -3.1 63.4604
      Christian Yelich 101 72.7723 5 63.4505
      Nick Castellanos 99 244.8788 -1.5 63.42929
      David Ortiz 101 64.3069 25.7 63.38614
      Adrian Beltre 101 22.9109 15.2 63.32673
      James Shields 101 94.4752 7.9 63.29703
      Rusney Castillo 101 148.8614 -14.5 63.26238
      Jake Odorizzi 100 206.56 6.3 63.245
      Ben Zobrist 101 161.6634 4.9 62.99505
      Fernando Rodney 101 148.5941 -0.4 62.89109
      Kenley Jansen 101 115.4257 6.8 62.88119
      Michael Cuddyer 98 241.5714 -8.4 62.83673
      Jhonny Peralta 101 223.2574 6.6 62.61386
      Shin-Soo Choo 101 185.703 19.1 62.5396
      David Wright 101 119.1881 -18.2 62.5
      Derek Holland 83 260.7952 -10.7 62.5
      Starlin Castro 101 86.9901 1.1 62.44554
      Scott Kazmir 100 234.57 4.4 62.395
      Pedro Alvarez 101 176.8713 9.2 62.33168
      Wilin Rosario 84 239.3333 -11.6 62.30357
      Josh Harrison 101 144.6931 -5.3 62.24257
      Danny Salazar 90 216.1778 14.9 62.23889
      Clayton Kershaw 101 6.8515 39.4 62.06436
      Elvis Andrus 101 125.7228 8.9 62.0396
      Kole Calhoun 101 73.0792 15.2 61.97525
      Denard Span 89 253.1236 -9.3 61.80899
      Ian Kennedy 101 184.9208 1.2 61.77228
      Anthony Rendon 101 23.3564 -14.3 61.67327
      Greg Holland 101 68.7822 1 61.40099
      Carl Crawford 95 248.4632 -17.5 61.4
      Pablo Sandoval 101 99.1386 -10 61.34158
      Adam LaRoche 101 153.4059 -13.5 61.21782
      Anibal Sanchez 100 172.63 -2.5 61.19
      Jayson Werth 101 172.6337 -9.4 61.12871
      Jacoby Ellsbury 101 33.4752 0.8 61.10891
      Evan Longoria 101 41.6436 11.4 60.84158
      Jonathan Papelbon 101 146.6238 3.9 60.83168
      Buster Posey 101 35.9109 25.4 60.82178
      Asdrubal Cabrera 84 263.75 4.4 60.77976
      Salvador Perez 101 158.8713 9 60.66832
      Jose Quintana 101 186.901 5.2 60.66337
      Jordan Zimmermann 101 55.8218 8.5 60.61881
      Chris Sale 101 31.297 21.4 60.54455
      Stephen Strasburg 101 28.3465 9.1 60.5396
      Yasiel Puig 101 16.4158 -10.9 60.44059
      Daniel Murphy 101 158.0297 4.9 60.35644
      Sonny Gray 101 89.0099 17.6 60.32673
      Madison Bumgarner 101 37.6832 28 60.28218
      Aaron Sanchez 98 232.0918 -3.9 60.21429
      Joe Mauer 99 231.3131 2.2 60.10606
      Ian Kinsler 101 60.1881 17.2 60.08416
      Leonys Martin 101 111.9307 -15.3 60.05941
      Chris Carter 101 90.7426 -1.1 59.93564
      Jose Reyes 101 49.0099 6.2 59.88614
      Jeff Samardzija 101 69.6535 -2.5 59.87129
      Rick Porcello 90 249.7111 -4.9 59.77778
      Russell Martin 98 231.4592 16 59.76531
      Ian Desmond 101 21.901 6.5 59.73762
      Matt Wieters 99 232.5354 -12 59.72727
      Alex Gordon 101 113.5446 -5.1 59.64356
      Jake McGee 101 197.9109 -3 59.59406
      Chris Tillman 89 249.6517 -6.1 59.50562
      Jon Lester 101 54.3861 13.6 59.39604
      Alex Rios 101 165.4851 -11.5 59.32673
      Dustin Pedroia 101 93.8317 -3.8 59.21287
      Erick Aybar 101 194.3762 1.4 59.20792
      Andrew McCutchen 101 3.0495 26.9 59.18317
      Lance Lynn 101 151.6634 6.8 59.12871
      Arismendy Alcantara 94 248.6596 -30.4 59.06383
      Matt Adams 101 141.4455 -21.3 58.74257
      Yadier Molina 101 188.0198 -3.1 58.60891
      Justin Verlander 100 217.07 0.6 58.325
      Adam Wainwright 101 84.9109 -8.9 58.32178
      Cole Hamels 101 62.8911 12.9 58.11386
      Hunter Pence 101 99.0792 -9.8 57.94554
      Andrew Cashner 101 165.6436 -6.8 57.88614
      Chase Utley 101 183.0594 -14.5 57.77228
      Martin Prado 100 216.55 -0.1 57.46
      Matt Cain 94 225.7021 -16 57.21277
      Johnny Cueto 101 48.0495 10.4 57.16337
      Matt Carpenter 101 114.0396 23.5 56.9802
      Doug Fister 100 163.56 -10.2 56.955
      Carlos Beltran 98 242 5 56.42347
      Carlos Gomez 101 7.5743 5.2 56.42079
      Austin Jackson 97 244.7732 2.1 56.1701
      Aramis Ramirez 101 200.1881 -0.1 56.04455
      Felix Hernandez 101 15.1386 16.9 55.9802
      R.A. Dickey 90 254.6444 2.5 55.73889
      Devin Mesoraco 101 119 -25.7 55.5495
      Jonathan Lucroy 101 92.3564 -3.1 55.5099
      Robinson Cano 101 17.3366 16.2 55.16832
      Coco Crisp 97 244.9175 -29.4 54.22165
      Freddie Freeman 101 29.2079 6.6 53.64851
      Gio Gonzalez 101 103.7426 1.6 53.42079
      Jered Weaver 100 199.36 -6.9 53.125
      Homer Bailey 100 154.64 -15.8 53.06
      Julio Teheran 101 88.1089 2.7 52.5396
      Victor Martinez 101 56.5446 -6.6 52.30198
      • couth says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: thanks! Lots of noise, but fun to take a closer look. I wanted to look at players who earned about what was expected — assuming profit correlates well with standings. Without preseason dollar values, I estimated values using ADP and calculated each players’ profit. There were 4 players with an ADP < 100, ave standing points -10, all starting pitchers. Players with ave standing points > 72 and profit < 5 include Pineda, Hahn, Abreu, and 8 relievers. Seems to validate waiting on SP and taking non-closers. Strangest result to me is that Matt Carpenter earned $23.5 at ADP 114 yet only averaged 57 points.

        • couth says:
          (link)

          That should read “4 players with an ADP less than 100, ave standing points less than 60, and profit greater than -10, all starting pitchers”

  54. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    People in my leagues in the past have all tried ‘overload’ draft strategies where they think because of the draft value or a particular strategy in mind, they try loading up on a specific area. These being load up on SP’s (only effective in uncapped leagues obviously), load up on closers, load up on power, or load up on speed (intending on dominating those cats and maybe trading excess away later in the year).

    Which of the above strategies have been the most effective, and are any really worth trying instead of the good ol’ ‘draft a balanced team’ approach? If you see better value in a draft but need a different area covered, would you usually waver or stick to your needs?

    • @Swfcdan: all depends on format. RCL is the way it is b/c it is GS cap vs. IP cap. Change to IP cap of 1300 and the advantage of MRs is minimized. In general, i think drafting overall value is #1 and balance is a very close 2nd.

  55. Steve Stevenson says:
    (link)

    Which stats had the most volatility (movement in the standings) in the 2nd half of the season? Interested in where people (particularly good teams) were able to make up ground in roto once a few months were in the books.

      • Steve Stevenson says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks. That’s generally the case and I figured it’d be a longshot that it’s tracked. What I’m interested in is, for successful teams that made big second-half moves in a category(-ies), which one(s) did they make up ground in? Sort of a reverse engineering of the “which stat should I punt” question?

  56. Cram It says:
    (link)

    Why don’t you quit screwing around with numbers and spreadsheets and your cat Mittens, and make your last pick in Scout real quick?

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Good job. Carry on.

    • The Harrow says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: wow, with all you do to everybody else. why not.

  57. Corey says:
    (link)

    Hey guys. Would you give up Joc Pederson and Collin McHugh for Dallas Keuchel?

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Corey: If it’s a redraft or you’re trying to win this year, I definitely would.

      • Corey says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: It’s a keep 5 league. I actually dropped Pederson so that I could keep Bogaerts instead, then I re-drafted him. I hate to part with Joc’s upside, but Khris Davis is out there on the wire – I figure he might be a suitable replacement?

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Corey: Yeah that changes things. I can’t put a Razzball stamp of approval on it, but I’m not a Joc fan, so if you can swing all of that, I would do it. JFOH doesn’t even have Joc in his top 100 keepers.

        • Cram It says:
          (link)

          @Corey: Would you even be keeping Joc next year?

          • Corey says:
            (link)

            @Cram It: At $15, only if he played closer to his ceiling than his floor. 25+ HRs, .215+ AVG, and a handful of steals.

            • Cram It says:
              (link)

              @Corey: I was thinking you’d end up throwing him back anyway, but you might as well hold him to see what he does this year.

    • FrankGrimes says:
      (link)

      @Corey:
      Meh

  58. Okay, thanks all for the great questions! Logging off…

  59. Kevin Crowe says:
    (link)

    10 team H2H league, 3 keepers, 2 hitters and a pitcher or 2 picthers and a hitter. Keeping Grey on the pitching side and Lester is my only other decent arm (don’t want any bone spurs in my keepers) so I need to decide on 2 of these 3.

    Arenado (lock me thinks)
    Pollock
    Altuve

    I’d probably take Pollock without his current DTD issues but from everything I’ve read he should be good to go on opening day. That said, Altuve is proven and isn’t hurt right now so that would be the safe bet. What do you think?

    Thanks as always for your insights!

    -Kevin

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @Kevin Crowe: Take a gander at the rankings and you’ll see that one of them is not like the others.

      • Kevin Crowe says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: Hmmm, not sure I’m seeing that. Guess it depends on the rankings. Arenado is the lock so I should have probably left him off this discussion but I’m still at a bit of a loss between Altuve and Pollock. I get the dissenters POV on Pollock not re-performing 2015 but he was bananas and is a higher rank in my particular leagues basic categories.

        Altuve has the longer sample size of doing great but I don’t think he’s going to steal as much (as everyone seems to agree) and he doesn’t hit the ball quite as far or hard as Pollock from what I’ve seen.

        Curious to hear your opinion if you have one, I’ll probably go with Arenado and Altuve.

        • The Harrow says:
          (link)

          @Kevin Crowe: he’s saying to check the rankings

  60. Wilson says:
    (link)

    Hi Rudy, im
    Who would you draft next? after drafting Arenado (1st pcik), Rizzo (2nd pick if lucky), Marte (3rd pick)
    1. J Upton (the other OF with power)
    2. C Seager (Potential SS in keeper league)
    3. Jo-F (first SP assuming top aces are gone)

    It’s a keeper league with 10-team 5×5. Thoughts appreciated.

  61. Nehocstu says:
    (link)

    Rudy; this is great stuff. Being a closet stats geek, you are half the reason I read Razzball!
    I play H2H leagues, 6×6 (OPS & Holds) and we charge for add/drops, so drafting well is more important, streaming is costly.
    But to compare my apples with your RCL Oranges, for the top 2 finishers for each RCL league last year, what round was the first and second sp taken, what round was the first and second RP taken?
    Can;t get enough… and thanks again.

    • @Nehocstu:
      Winners averaged drafting SP1 in round 5.2 and SP2 in 8.3. All other teams averaged SP1 in round 4.5 and SP2 in round 7.8.Winners averaged RP1 – 10th, RP2 – 13th

  62. SwingingRichards says:
    (link)

    Rudy, I’m in a 6×6 H2H mixed league with 12 teams and the standard categories with OBP and Losses for hitting and pitching respectively. 8 pitchers (no SP or RP requirements) and no weekly innings minimum or maximum. My spreadsheet has RPs valued higher than almost everyone else, and last year made the semis without paying much for pitching in the draft and going going closer and reliever happy to win SVs and Ls and punting Ws and sometimes Ks. On the season, my ERA and WHIP was great, but in H2H I sometimes get blown up by a bad outing. Do you think it is still worth having the strategy of saves and relievers like Betances, but maybe 3 elite starters to help add consistency to the weekly ERA and WHIP?

    • it’s an interesting strategy. i typically go depth on SP in H2H but – if everyone goes that route – sticking with premium MRs and closers makes sense. i’m not sure what 3 elite starters really buys you – occasional ERA/WHIP wins? That’s a heavy price to pay since everyone else is buying them as 4 category contributors. I think you either go deep with your SPs (typically 8+ SPs) or stick w/ what you’re doing.

  63. Branta says:
    (link)

    Hello,

    I am doing an NL Only Auction league, Yahoo!’s standard format, except that there’s going to be at most 8 teams (but more likely 6). How does that affect how I should draft? First time doing Auction, first time doing NL Only. Should be fun.

    • Branta says:
      (link)

      @Branta: Also, where can I find values from like…LABR and Tout Wars?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        What do you mean, values?

      • @Branta: Just google for them. I know there’s a link to the Tout Wars $ values on toutwars.com. Not sure location of LABR (maybe on RTSports.com).

        I’ve got an easy peazy way to think about $. Just use 12 team mixed (if 6) and 16 team mixed (if 8). Delete the AL players. You can adjust from there.

  64. Sing Us a Vogelsong You're the Pineda Man says:
    (link)

    In a keep forever points league, where there are no monetary contacts, my lineup is stupid loaded. 10 teams MLB UNIVERSE.

    C-
    1B- Miggy
    2B- Odor
    SS- Correa
    3B- Arenado
    MI-
    CI- Abreu
    OF- Stanton
    OF- Springer
    OF-
    OF-
    OF-
    Util-

    Rotation:
    SP- Arrieta
    SP- Harvey
    SP- Darvish
    SP-
    SP-
    SP-
    SP-
    P-
    P-

    Given the stacked nature of my positional players, should I spend my next two-three draft picks on SPs and fill in the remaining batter spots with sleeper-types? Or should I let the overall value of each pick dictate who I draft.

  65. Will says:
    (link)

    Some of these I know are given, but which 10 should I keep in a head to head 12 team, 6×6 league. Added categories are OPS and QS to the basic 5×5. No restrictions this year on the keepers. They will just take the first 10 rounds
    My team:

    Schwerber
    Encarnacion
    Hosmer
    Dozier
    Rendon
    Correa
    Arenado
    Polonco
    Stanton
    Ozuna
    Souza Jr
    Ian Desmond
    Wil Myers

    Carrasco
    Salazar
    Matz
    Stroman
    Severino
    Jamie Garcia
    Tyson Ross
    Cody Allen
    Tolleson

    We have a 12 start limit each week with 4 OF, 2 UTIL, and No (CI or MI) spots and 1 catcher

    Which 10 should I pick? I pretty confident in about 7-8 of them. Just can’t decide which way to go with the last 2-3. Thoughts?

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