So much of life comes down to perspective. There are super successful people that are filled with bitterness and anger while others scrape by and are happy. I constantly have to remind myself how lucky I am – great wife & kids, healthy, have money in bank, love where I live – to avoid getting sucked into the craphole of the daily grind.

It is easy for people that do not play fantasy sports to dismiss our joy or anger at our fantasy baseball teams by saying ‘it is just a game.’ You can reduce just about everything people get passionate about with ‘it is just _____’. But that isn’t productive. Reveling in your successes and dismissing your failures only means you ensure less success because you do not fully learn from your failures. And it takes a healthy perspective to isolate the ‘fault’ from the ‘bad luck’ in one’s failures.

I write all this because my first year in Tout Wars was an excrutiating test to keep perspective. Let’s see how good a job I can do….

Quick Summary
I finished in 2nd place with 106 points, 2 points behind Adam Ronis of DraftValue/RotoExperts/SiriusXM. In third, Grey finished 2 points behind me, and Perry Van Hook of Mastersball finished 4th with 98 points (but was in contention for 2nd/3rd place on the last day).

I was in 3rd place (17 points down) at the All-Star Break (what a rush!). I was 14.5 points up in early September (what a choke!).

A lot of the categories were tightly contested – both to my benefit and detriment – but the key one was Saves. The 4th through 11th place teams in Saves landed between 70 and 77 and I ended up tied for 10th with 72.  Two more Saves and I tie. Three more Saves and I win the league.

Taking all the below into consideration, I had enough go right for me that I could have won this league if I made better decisions. With a little more good luck (or a little less bad luck), I win as well but that would have been true for the other contending teams. I think the below analysis was quite helpful in uncovering a few areas I can improve on for next year as well as uncovering a few WTF things that spare me some second guessing.

Positives/Good Luck

  • The Draft (Here is my post-draft writeup. Here is the draft board.) – In a weekly league with $100 FAAB, it is critical to have a great draft if you want to compete. I have been investing a lot of time/thought into my 15-team mixed draft strategies the past 2 years and it is rewarding to see it pay off. The three keys to my draft were:
    • First 2 picks were Edwin Encarnacion (#12) and Josh Donaldson (#19).  Hard to take too much (if any) credit here. EE was definitely the consensus choice at #12 though I would have taken Votto there if Paul Sporer took EE instead of Votto at #11 (note: this is 5×5 OBP but, despite that, most people thought Votto that early was bonkers). I had Scherzer as a better value over Donaldson at pick #19 but wanted a hitter. This would have been a much tougher choice if the guys at the turn chose Donaldson and Scherzer over Cano and Felix Hernandez.
    • Shin Soo-Choo in the 6th round and Kris Bryant in the 9th round. Both these picks were driven by this being an OBP league vs AVG. I chose Choo over Soler and there were only two other OFs taken in the next 90 picks after Choo that delivered similar/better value (Betts and JD Martinez). I saw Kris Bryant as tremendous value at this spot and paired him with a SAGNOF (Billy Hamilton #5) just as I had on my NFBC team (Revere). (You can also throw in stashing Lindor in round #26 though I got lucky there – and also could have had Correa)
    • SP Depth – Kluber, Shields, and Kennedy were an unspectactular top 3 (aside from K’s) and I got 3 starts out of my 4th SP (McCarthy). But Hammel (17th), Burnett (20th), Nelson (21st), Chen (22nd), and Anderson (28th) provided a lot of quality innings given their draft slots.
  • Cheap Free Agents – I went volume over a few big acquisitions in FAAB. Key 1st half pickups were: Steve Tolleson ($1), Justin Turner ($1), Gerardo Parra ($1). Key stretch run pickups were: Jayson Werth ($1), JA Happ ($1). All of these guys delivered way more than I expected (see here for my team stats) – call it 2 parts luck, 1 part skill.
  • Opponent Injuries – Adam Ronis drafted Stanton, Ellsbury, Harper, Pollock, and Gerrit Cole. This league is a rout if Stanton and Ellsbury don’t get hurt. Grey drafted Strasburg, Arrieta, Salazar, Carlos Martinez. While he ended up leaving only 6 points on the board in W/ERA/WHIP/K, his offense was unhinged by the Soler/Souza/K Davis injuries (Souza in 8th round – ha!). Perry had Goldschmidt (a STELLAR choice at #3), Betts, and Carpenter but lost significant time w/ Springer & Freeman (though, to be a tad critical, he could have had Bryce Harper instead of these guys).

Negatives/Bad Luck

  • Hitter Injuries – The Corey Dickerson plantar fascitis drama and Matt Holliday’s quad issues were tough blows that were mostly mitigated by my FAAB good fortune. I have no doubt that a healthy Dickerson would have delivered solid value for his late 3rd round draft slot and won me a couple extra points in HR and possibly OBP (his replacement was, effectively, Paulsen). Holliday performed quite poor in counting stats for the 62 games I had him active (23/4/31/2) but his .409 OBP was stellar. The Nick Hundley injury in September – preceding a long homestand – cost me a point in RBIs for sure as Dustin Garneau quickly got overtaken by Tom Murphy. (Billy Hamilton’s injuries were almost a non-factor as I got my 50 SBs from him and probably would have benched him a few weeks for better bats).
  • Starting Brett Anderson the week of September 20th – While the next two bullet points will add some color behind this IDIOTIC decision, I started Anderson in a 2 start week pitching home against ARI and at Colorado. My logic was that the first start had a good chance at a win (facing Chacin) and that the Rockies were somewhat neutralized by LHP. Holy crapsticks was this a bad choice. Clearly this had a huge downside but I clearly underestimated my ERA/WHIP vulnerability in the standings. His stats for the week (8.7 IP, 11 ER, 20 Hits(?!), 2 BB, 3 HR, .435 BABIP, 11.37 ERA, 2.52 WHIP) cost me 2 ERA and 2 WHIP standing points. Starting an injured pitcher would’ve won me the pennant. Even worse, JA Happ (on my bench) got a Win with 8 Ks that week (@COL start) and Rich Hill had a monster stream off FA for Ronis.
  • September SP Bad Luck – As you can imagine with a team headed by Kluber/Shields/Kennedy, it was going to be a dogfight in all the non-K pitching categories. My staff was overperforming through August (11.5 in Wins / 14.0 ERA / 13.0 WHIP / 15.0 K) but it is still kind of shocking that I lost 15 points in these categories in the final month. How? Kluber had a nightmarish September with a hamstring injury while everyone else’s aces (Ronis’s Cole, Grey’s Arrieta) were lights out. I have no idea what the hell was wrong with Shields and his only solid week was one on my bench when he had a disgusting @ARI/@COL 2-start week (which likely tilted me to starting Anderson the next week w/ ARI/@COL). There was a ridiculous stretch of 10 games where I had 5 of my pitchers at Coors (Happ, Burnett, Shields, Kennedy, Anderson) while my competitors’ pitchers on those teams missed it (Ronis’ Cole, Van Hook’s Ross).
  • HR/9 – One plus with OnRoto.com is that you can see your active vs bench performance. I took that data to create the side-by-side stats (calculating the K/9, BB/9, HR/9 and backing into BABIP) as a way to look at Start vs Sit pitching decisions. Note: A=Active, B=Bench
    • Team ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 BABIP
      A B A B A B A B A B A B
      Me 3.655 3.613 1.2379 1.2117 8.5 7.5 2.4 2.8 1.16 0.99 0.3o4 0.277
      Ronis 3.624 4.930 1.1954 1.4582 7.9 7.2 2.4 3.0 0.94 1.21 0.302 0.322
      Grey 3.427 3.646 1.2006 1.2883 8.9 7.4 2.9 3.0 0.82 1.04 0.291 0.288
    • Takeaway #1: I had the worst starter ERA/WHIP and best bench ERA/WHIP of the group. I noticed this during the year and alternated between blaming myself and the baseball gods. But after looking at the component stats, my bench starters were just luckier (.277 BABIP vs .304, worse K/BB). No doubt I wasn’t perfect – see above Brett Anderson comment – but the fundamentals point to me making mostly optimal decisions. I think Ronis and Grey made comparable decisions with start/sit with Ronis’s bench having severe bad luck in HR/BABIP.
    • Takeaway #2: I had the 2nd best K/9 and tied for best BB/9 of this group. That is good.
    • Takeaway #3: I had the worst BABIP. While there may be a little bit of bad luck in there, my SP’s team defenses were projected to be bad and were bad – especially the Padres (29th in MLB). I do wonder if Steamer’s projections for Shields fully took into account how massively his defense was downgrading vs his Royals’ and Rays’ defenses. Ronis’s slightly better BABIP was the difference in our WHIP. Grey likely had a little BABIP luck mixed in with the fact that his K/9 and HR/9 point to a more dominant staff than mine or Ronis’s which could have elicited weaker contact.
    • Takeaway #4: WTF with my HR/9! Easy answer – no one gave the memo to James Shields and Ian Kennedy that the ball was carrying this year in Petco (8th highest HR factor for 2015). The average home HR/9 for qualified starters was 0.98. Kennedy had a 2.00 HR/9 at Petco in 2015 (after a 0.89 in 2014) and Shields had a 1.74 HR/9. Here are the top 10 highest home HR/9 amongst the 143 pitchers with 50+ home IP: K. Kendrick, Lohse, Kennedy, Guthrie, Tanaka, Shields). Shields and Kennedy managed a worse home HR/9 than 4 Rockie SPs (and 138 other SPs). Given historical performance at Petco, I’ve got to chalk these HR/9 results as bad luck that, unfortunately, cost me at least 2 points in ERA.
  • Opponent SP In-Season Moves – This is a shout-out to Adam Ronis for his in-season SP moves. While the above analysis showed that his start/sit moves were comparable to Grey/myself, here are the SP’s drafted by myself, Ronis, and Grey. For Ronis to finish 6th in ERA and 2nd in WHIP is pretty amazing given he drafted 3 useful SP (and no useful RP given Cishek/Mejia/Parnell). Key in-season pickups were Bartolo Colon, Kyle Hendricks, and Patrick Corbin.
    • Me: Kluber/Shields/Kennedy/McCarthy/Hammel/Burnett/Nelson/Chen/B. Anderson
    • Ronis: Cole/Wacha/Latos/Bailey/Odorizzi/House/Duffy/Heaney/Minor/Elias
    • Grey: Strasburg/Arrieta/Salazar/Cingrani/Carlos Martinez/Eovaldi/Petit/Peavy/D Norris
  • Bad RP Luck (especially in September) – While Glen Perkins had a wonderful April-August and Steve Tolleson delivered insane value for a $1 May pickup (5 Wins, 35 Saves, 55 IP, 52 Ks, 2.782 ERA, 1.145 WHIP), it is infuriating to finish 10th in Saves when…1) I draft a very competent closer in Benoit who loses his job because the Padres GM only gets paid on trade commissions, 2) I draft Jake McGee – who was AMAZEBALLS in 2014 – and he does not get the job back, 3) I delve into free agency twice in August/early Sept for insurance only to get almost nothing from Drew Pomeranz and Alex Wilson – the top two choices for those weeks – when they were quickly usurped by Doolittle and Rondon’t Give A Shit), 4) I chose Pomeranz over Jepsen in FAAB because Perkins appeared healthy only for him to succumb to back spasms a few days later, and 5) I load up the final week with Robbie Ross Jr and Feliz only to get a combined 1 save (Feliz, who also blew a save).
  • Bad RP Persistence – This is a corollary to the above where I failed to bid on other potential closers in other 2nd half weeks. Skimming through the FAAB, I see Vizcaino went for $1 on 7/17 and Rondon went for $2 on 8/3. But the most painful one was Wilhelmsen going to Ronis for $1 (on a $9 bid) on 8/24.
  • Bad RP April/May FAAB – Benoit was out of the closer role from the get-go so, w/ McGee on the DL, I should’ve been aggressive from day 1. I got Tolleson on 5/18 so here are the closer acquisitions prior to that date: Grilli ($17), Axford ($7), Miguel Castro ($22), Ziegler ($1), Caminero ($1), Hatcher ($3), Mujica ($1), Jim Johnson ($2), Yimi Garcia ($1), Familia ($23), Ramos ($2). Five worthwhile closers were selected (Grilli, Axford, Ziegler, Familia, Ramos – note that Castro lost job only to reclaim it weeks later). See below for the blow-by-blow, but my final takeaway is that I made only one mistake in not going to $4 for AJ Ramos. And, if I won that one, I probably would not have bid on Tolleson (or Ronis might have outbid me). So it ends up being a double takeaway: 1) Be more aggressive bidding on prospective closers if you like their stuff and need a closer and 2) Make bids on prospective closer even if you have 2 on your roster just in case you can nab one on the cheap unless there are no Save standing points to gain (losing a couple GS along the way doesn’t matter much).
    • On 4/6, I bid $11 on Grilli but several bid higher ($27, $16, $13…$27 taken down to $17 based on the FAAB rules being $1+2nd bid). Given Grilli’s risk (he didn’t pitch in 2H), I could see going a little higher than my $11 but not the $28 it would have required.
    • On 4/13, I did not bid on Familia while several teams bid hard with the highest being Ronis at $23 (who had drafted Mejia and Parnell). That ended up being a steal. I did not bid anything. Not sure why. Bidding $24+ feels like a hindsight 20/20 move. I could see doing that only if I thought a guy had top 10-closer stuff (think Jansen before he became closer) and I do not think anyone put Familia in that category.
    • On 4/20, Ziegler is grabbed for $2. There was certainly smoke with Addison Reed but Ziegler did not gain the job until mid-May. The rules require you to start all pickups the first week and an 8th inning guy makes for a substandard week unless your SPs are in bad matchups. I had plenty of solid SP matchups and Benoit – not kicking myself on this one.
    • On 4/27, Axford goes for $7 with a $9 bid beating $6. Given the price, this proved to be a solid get though I am not kicking myself for not bidding $10+ on a prospective Rockies closer who proved shaky in previous years (note: he did end the year with a 1.58 WHIP).
    • On 5/4, Ramos goes for $2 to Ronis (who had Cishek) on a $3 bid. I had bid $1. Ramos was not the closer yet but it seemed imminent with Cishek being a mess. Wow did this have a major impact! This one stings the most as I could have had him the week before for a $1. Is it worth going to $4-$5 for a prospective closer? Tough call but I’d say yes if the guy has stuff like Ramos. I screwed up twice here – not bidding $1 the week before and not bidding $4+ the next week. Smart handcuff by Ronis.

Note: On the surface, it would seem like Kluber’s 9 Wins was a bad luck factor (for instance, Salazar and Carrasco had 14 Wins each despite similar ERAs and 40 less IP). Given I finished 7th in ERA and 8th in WHIP, my 7th place finish in Wins seems earned. I think I had higher IP than most teams so my Win/Quality Start total is probably a little lower than most. But this had a minor impact as I was 5 Wins away from a standings point and would’ve needed 8 more Wins to win the league.

  1. Packers says:
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    Great read. As far as your opening, I figure I have two decades on you, with that , simply put if a person enjoys each day they are enjoying life. I know people who can buy me out 4 times over. I have been retired 11 years enjoying life and think I’m winning. As far as fantasy baseball goes in roto I’ve learned to keep an eye on standing gain points. It’s a marathon and a manager has to stay proactive the whole season. Take care.

    • @Packers: Thanks. I know this isn’t Brett Favre since you’re enjoying retirement :)

  2. Lville Jim says:
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    I do love it when you get in a random league and proceed to clean their clocks, inevitably you are going to have someone break out the “I have a life outside of fantasy baseball and don’t have time to sit on my computer all day making moves” line. Who knows maybe they are right, it’s the off season and I’m still trying to reading fantasy baseball blogs.

    • Billy Boy says:
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      @Lville Jim:
      I’m right there with ya, Lville Jim. I seem to get that comment every year. But who cares? I’m happy with the life I’m living every day, and reading articles/analysis from Rudy frequently during the off-season makes me happy.

      So if I also get a little extra pleasure from cleaning my neighbors’ clocks and getting some extra pocket change every year… I’m more than fine with that. :)

    • James says:
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      @Lville Jim: I had this discussion in a yahoo public league. If you are trying really hard in those, you may have a problem

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @Lville Jim: guys need to feel better in the face of losing, just laugh and agree with them, that’ll shut em up.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @goodfold2: basically if they show up IN THE FANTASY league to make comments like that they are stupid little (mentally little) people. If they comiserate in their private lives (which are clearly soooo much better so as to ignore their fantasy teams) with their friends (i bet they have too many right, it’s WHY they can’t win their fantasy leagues) that’s cool, but when they come out in their leagues as “well i only lost since you losers spend so much of their time on their teams” they aren’t taking enough credit for the losses they often deserve. If they wanted to be civil they’d just live their supposedly so much better lives in peace, leave us to the winning.
        Laugh at them the same way i’m sure an NFL player would if his opponent tried that “well we lost to you today, but my wife is so hot i didn’t have time to concentrate at practice” post game. Have fun with the wife, we’ll have fun with winning. Might be succombing to that b.s. with lines like “if you are trying really hard in those might have a problem” though, i’d get that looked at.

  3. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Good read Rudy. Lots to take away but one thing that sticks as a real key to any season is FaaB and closers. One thing I’ve found that works well is to take 7th inning options on the week when an 8th inning guy gets promoted. In the NFBC I’ve seen bids for as high as 400 of 1000 bucks on closers who kept the job for a week or two. The guy who ends up with the job could have been had for a buck the same week. It’s probably the toughest in season decision making but also the most important.

    • Ra'zbahl Al Ghul says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: ditto gtsteve, nice read Rudy. And great to see Razzball representin/cruhing it in TW. Just confirms once again that Razzball is where it’s at

      • thanks! yeah, was nice we both finished so high though 1st/2nd would’ve been a bit better :)

    • @GhostTownSteve: The big difference vs NFBC is you have to start him in the next week. The benches might be a bit shallower as well (though there is a DL). So I don’t think it’s a good strategy to invest FAAB on a 7th inning guy. I think it’s really limited to guys who are near imminent – hence, kicking myself on Ramos since it was so apparent at the time that Cishek was high risk (and Ramos was a clear #2). That is just another reason for me kicking myself on Jepsen who checks off all the boxes (solid pitcher, clearly next in line, Perkins showing wear).

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        If you have to start him that week, do you then have to start him the following week as well? Is there no bench.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Anyone you grab from waivers you must start the following week and you must drop one active player…There’s a bench, and unlimited DL

          • GhostTownSteve says:
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            @Grey:

            In that case I still think looking one closer further down the chain is a decent investment when the situation looks ripe for a carousel.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              You can’t pick up a 7th inning man… You need to grab the 8th inning guy the week before he becomes the closer… If you need saves, which I didn’t

            • @GhostTownSteve: agree with grey. can’t waste bench space – let alone a starting roster spot for a week – on a 7th inning guy. but, as noted in my post, i think i’ll be more aggressive next year on 8th inning guys that are next in line, have good stuff, and are behind a shaky closer.

              • GhostTownSteve says:
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                @Rudy Gamble:

                I’ll defer because you both play that format, but I see the risk as worthwhile in this regard. Let’s say somebody spends $25 on Castro out of $100 last year. You dump a buck on Osuna. The guy who took Castro gets a weeks worth of two blow saves from Castro, you take two clean innings from Osuna. Next week you sit Osuna so it costs you an addional week of bench space but no production hit. The following week he becomes the closer and you bought him for a buck. You add the $24 bucks you saved to your Correa bid and you win your league. Simple, non?

                • @GhostTownSteve: for every osuna, you will likely have a couple of duds. FAAB for relievers isn’t great odds – even when you are picking an interim closer. only makes sense if you’re down a closer or two so you have the free roster spots.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    I don’t understand the “Souza in the 8th round – ha!” — That’s around 115 overall in a 15 team league and your rankings had him at 110 overall. Holliday, who hasn’t been injury-free for about five years, was bad luck when he underperformed due to an injury, but Souza was “ha!” because he got injured?

    • @Grey: Souza’s NFBC ADP was something like 200 whereas Holliday’s was 100 (and OBP would give him a slight boost). So I felt Souza that early was a multi-round reach hence the Muntzian parenthetical. Otherwise, Holliday vs Souza devolves into an upside vs high floor debate (and Dickerson/Hamilton/Bryant were sufficient upside/risk investment that I felt comfortable complementing with the more boring Holliday and Choo).

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Meh, Souza would’ve been drafted by me or someone else shortly… If he had performed (or Soler), it wouldn’t seem crazy at this point

        • @Grey: He probably lasts another couple rounds based on NFBC drafts. I liked the Soler and Khris Davis picks – really, the only guy in your first 12 picks that stood out as a reach was Souza. I know you aren’t as a big fan of ADP/value as me but this was a case where it might have bit you.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Souza had 16 HRs and 12 steals in 110 games, if he plays 150 games, that’s not a guy worth a 120 overall pick?

            • @Grey: i had him as a $15/game player. He ended up $7/game. Not sure what you are arguing here – you picked Souza at a higher pick than every single NFBC league. You paid bodega prices for them milk and eggs! Why didn’t you take Arrieta in the 4th round? B/c you could take him in the 7th and pick someone else who wouldn’t have been there in the 7th…

  5. Charles says:
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    Rudy- good to read your detailed articles, as always. You mentioned getting more info about team defense into the pitcher projections. What other factors do you think will end up in next year’s model?

    • @Charles: Team defense is accounted for in the projections – it was just me noting that I can’t complain about bad BABIP luck when I select 2 Padres and their defense was forecasted to be horrendous (it’s the HR/9 that was a surprise).

      I don’t foresee any major changes to the pre-season projections. Was real happy with Year 1 of $/Game.

  6. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Hey Albright…answering your question yesterday about Mr. Hinckleman, aka the pig farmer. I think the answer is that he and a lot of the other really successful NFBC guys seem to have in common that they seem to be less saberheads and more scouts. Big group of them go to the AFL every year and all of them watch baseball relentlessly through the summer. Lot of retired or semi-retired old guys or guys with time on their hands. I think the primary thing I noticed about Hinkleman is that his scouting edge has allowed him to pick up on a lot of the break out players year in and year out. And the guys who he takes towards the end of the draft often work out. He never drafts catchers until very late but then seems to end up with productive guys. Like a scout I think he looks for athletic guys (took Marte and Springer at the wheel on the first round of a 15 teamer last year). Laughed audibly when I took Dannys Cantana (bad ball player). The guy Morgan from Mastersball that won the overall in ’14 is like that too. Baseball background, lot of scout in him.

    That plus deft in season stuff. Seems to be the recipe. I think the Marte Springer thing was pretty smart. Had Springer not gotten hurt he would have gotten like 45 homers and 50 steals out of those two guys.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That makes sense, draft talent over what the projections say for young players with an opportunity… I’d say Souza was that guy this year if he didn’t get hurt… Makes me think of watching Carrasco this year, I’d see him be absolutely outstanding but his line would say something else…

      • GhostTownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        Another thing it does is it helps keep you away from the Dannys Cantana types, I think. He was sitting next to me when I made the pick and I swear I heard him audibly chuckle. I admit I made the pick without having seen Santana play. Will never do that again.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I liked Dannys as well, and that was me also going sight unseen, which is kinda me with all Twins…Who watches the Twins?!

          • GhostTownSteve says:
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            @Grey:

            My work gave me an iPad and since I subscribed to MLB network for the first time this year, I discovered I can go back and watch every game from 2015 and maybe further back in full. I’m mostly focused on scouting pitchers but I get eyeballs on a lot of guys. Loving it. How did I not have this before?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Should grab five people you trust and everyone scouts different divisions, and flags players that look better in real life than on paper and vice versa… I know I liked how Arenado looked in real life in 2014 better than his stats said and it paid off…

              • GhostTownSteve says:
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                @Grey:

                You watch a lot of ball. You’ve made some pretty good calls over the years…especially given your physique. Heyooooooooo!

                • GhostTownSteve says:
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                  @GhostTownSteve:

                  In seriousness, I completely agree about the consensus scouting approach. That’s kind of what we do here in the comments. Another potential edge I’ve kicked around here before and am trying to put into action is to have a scout in each city that watches the home team, listens to the radio pre game and follows the beat writers. I think everybody now plays from the same information set (aggergators like KFFL and maybe Razz) and misses the insider stuff that doesn’t rise to the level of visibility.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    I tend to watch games with the audio off, home town announcers are mostly terrible and not objective at all

                    • GhostTownSteve says:
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                      @Grey:

                      I don’t like the announcers and particularly not their evaluations of players. Ray Fosse in Oakland is the worst. But I do like the news aspect of the hometown reporting. I think it can give you an edge in being ahead of the game.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Yup, agreed

  7. Mike

    Mike says:
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    Congrats to both of you guys on a solid finish.

    Rudy, loved the intro. It’s music to my ears when I hear a student say, “oh wow, I know what I did wrong”.

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Mike: I always know what I did wrong…it’s just that I fail to fix the mistake

  8. J-FOH says:
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    it is just happiness

  9. Zeus says:
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    God I hate the mets. Let’s go Royals

    • J-FOH says:
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      @Zeus: I can’t root for any team that has Ventura

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        You are a Mets fan

        • Zeus says:
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          @Grey: it’s also hard to root for George Brett to be happy. What a smug prick. All I wanted was for the Jays to be in so I could obnoxiously sing Oh Canada to mets fans

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Haha, Brett seems like he likes to go out with Cal Ripken and haze rookies

            • Zeus says:
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              @Grey: air raid you little Moistasskiss

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Haha

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Grey: well that too

          • Zeus says:
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            @J-FOH: as an adult I’ve calmed most of my childjood rage but seeing the mets do well makes me see red

      • Zeus says:
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        @J-FOH: robin?

        • J-FOH says:
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          @Zeus: Yordano, someone needs to take that boy behind the woodshed and teach him some respect

          • Zeus says:
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            @J-FOH: I’m with you he’s a prick. Hosmer seems like one too

            • J-FOH says:
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              @Zeus: Hosmer needs his teeth knocked out too, actually most pro ball players seem like a bunch of pricks

              • Zeus says:
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                @J-FOH: Hosmer lind of looks like a member of cobra Kai that’s even more of a dick than Johnny

  10. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Rudy, perspective on life perfectly capsulized. Brothers from a different mother!

  11. goodfold2 says:
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    got 2 questions Rudy man.

    1. FOH mentioned in end of year RCL champions post about next year RCL’s giving less value to high index leagues. How much less value, and why is that being done?

    2. your comment about OTS drafting early pitchers vs not, your comment that it’s about draft resources spent on hitters vs pitchers (70-30 or thereabouts hitter to pitcher). Can you make more tables preseason showing that all the way into the 400’s of picks for all different size leagues, from 10-20’s? I tried to follow along in my drafts last year (and did a good job mostly) of trying to keep track of during draft and stay close to those margins. Where each pick is worth less and less (but it should be gradual obviously), but the chart on the site was only for a 12 teamer, and didn’t go into the 400’s of picks.

    • 1) I haven’t made a final decision but 2014’s calculation multiplied the average of one’s league points and master RCL points ONCE by the competitive index while the 2015 methodology multiplied by the competitive index twice. I’ll likely split the difference in 2016.

      2) Sure. Will keep that in mind.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: 1. ok, so it’ll be the midpoint adjustment between 2014-15.

        • yes, that’s what i’m thinking.

  12. goodfold2 says:
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    your SD pitcher HR/9 clearly shows why BP and other places don’t put any stock in one season of park factors.

    • @goodfold2: Right. I use the same park factors as FanGraphs which I believe is a 3 year average. The only manual change I made mid-way through the season was correcting HR factors for the Texas Rangers’ stadium since it is playing markedly different since they d some remodeling 2 years back.

      The only explanation I’ve heard for SD is that it was an anomalously hot summer. Who knows how it plays for 2016 but clearly 2015’s performance will affect next season’s park factors and probably make it HR-neutral but still slightly pitcher-friendly.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: yeah, TEX brought in some physics guys but i don’t know how you could change that much from some airflow changes, but apparently that’s what happened.

  13. goodfold2 says:
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    i also see that site is (as far as i know) only one smart enough to do Vickrey bidding, seen when you said that that guy got Kaiser for $1 when he bid up to $9. There no good reason for anybody to have to pay more than market value in fantasy leagues, and like Vickrey proved, “market” means the 2nd highest bid, not the first. In this instance i assume nobody else either bid more than zero or no bids at all. I tried to explain this to a comish in fantrax who didn’t understand it. In that league comish COULD in fact do this, but he didn’t want to. I’m sure his thinking patterns affect him negatively in the rest of his life though, so sucks for him.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: i see in later note it’s by definition Vickrey bidding, with what wins = 2nd highest + $1 (incremental increase).

    • @goodfold2: The Vickrey bidding is great. One aspect I didn’t realize is that your $100 goes further than a standard league. If it weren’t for the fact that I was constantly bidding on closers, I would’ve left a lot of FAAB on the table. Kind of wish I was more excited by Correa when he was called up….especially as Justin Turner faded in the 2nd half.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: me too, i only have correa in one league, a pts league (4 keepers) where the team i took over was so bad (only had carrasco/posey as legitimate keepers) i stashed him for a near month. in my other leagues he was hoarded up 12-30+ days and i was beat in every other place before he was even called up.

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