This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft. Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally. Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source.

While I stand behind these numbers as they are part of the foundation behind my Player Rater $ estimates, I do not use these as part of my draft. I prefer to add up the dollar values per category. Same difference I suppose but it is easier to see counting totals for ratios and it lets me fixate less on the numbers (e.g., I see $7, I know they are good…I don’t fixate on 20 SBs vs 25 SBs).

Notes:

  • The differences between ESPN and Yahoo roster formats are much greater for hitters (13 ESPN starting spots vs. 10 in Yahoo) than pitchers (9 pitchers in ESPN vs. 8 pitchers in Yahoo). In daily leagues, I have found that Yahoo leagues end up with similar innings totals as ESPN leagues, indicating that owners are that much more aggressive in cycling in relievers during SP off days and/or streaming. So you will find the same targets for ESPN and Yahoo.
  • These projections are solely for post-draft purposes. Daily pickup leagues will have greater counting stats because of more opportunities to optimize their roster.
  • CBSSports leagues should match ESPN assuming you use the roster format: C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P. For NFBC or other 2-catcher leagues, you should add a 2nd catcher’s worth of stats on the offensive side.

UPDATED 3/18 AT 2:49PM EST with corrected Yahoo figures.

Roster Format # of Teams Point Total (75th percentile) R HR RBI SB AVG W SV ERA WHIP K
ESPN 10 7.8 990 274 973 172 0.273 83 130 3.14 1.15 1,303
ESPN 12 9.3 969 264 956 160 0.272 83 113 3.17 1.15 1,274
ESPN 14 10.8 947 254 934 154 0.270 84 102 3.21 1.16 1,248
ESPN 15 11.5 936 248 920 152 0.270 86 95 3.23 1.16 1,245
ESPN 16 12.3 925 243 909 148 0.269 86 89 3.24 1.16 1,234
Yahoo 10 7.8 799 219 783 141 0.276 86 128 3.08 1.13 1,247
Yahoo 12 9.3 775 211 761 135 0.275 83 112 3.14 1.15 1,207
Yahoo 14 10.8 754 204 744 127 0.274 82 101 3.21 1.16 1,171
Yahoo 15 11.5 744 203 739 121 0.273 82 94 3.24 1.17 1,162
Yahoo 16 12.3 735 198 730 120 0.273 81 88 3.26 1.17 1,147
  1. knucks says:
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    You da man Rudy, thank you!

    Also…

    https://razzball.com/2016-fantasy-baseball-war-room/

    Using this knowledge from your post to update my war room goals. I know the war room file is not up to date, as far as recent injuries/FA signings, but it allows me to update it as I want, so that’s key.

  2. Bob Bobstein says:
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    12 team H2H Keeper 5X5 + obp. My keepers are Syndergaard, Franco, Seager, Heyward, Gomez, Prince. I have the 3rd pick & the top guys available are Springer, Upton, Strasburg, & Carrasco.

    Who would you take?

    • Springer or Carrasco. Either/or

  3. Ed says:
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    How is it possible to reach 995r/269hr/976rbi/169 sb with 10 roster spots in a 12-man yahoo league?

    The average is 99.5r/26.7hr/97.6rbi/16.9 sb per hitter.

    I guess you’re factoring in bench hitters?

    Where did you come across this info?

    Thanks!

    • You are right. I probably multiplied by 13 instead of 10 hitters. FiXing in a bit.

      • Ed says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        The edited numbers look good – I think you’re a little high on stolen bases though.

        Here are my 75% threshold numbers for my 10-man yahoo league with 11 hitters (instead of 10)

        904r 244hr 896rbi 130sb 0.278avg

        Great work!

  4. Jbona3 says:
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    I have a bit of an offbeat question, more about Keepers impacting strategy: I’m in a 12 team 5×5 (OBP) with unlimited keepers (within budget of $260) with 5 OF, CI/MI. I’m planning on keeping Lindor ($7), Cain ($6), and Deshields ($5), and I have the opportunity to keep Billy Hamilton ($20) if I want. (Note: all other major SB threats are being kept by other teams.)

    My question is rooted in game theory: does it make sense to keep Hamilton, likely creating a league wide SB shortage and then trade him off in season? The rationale is that all other teams will be closely bunched in SB, so Hamilton would be a potential difference maker in the category for someone. The downside is that $20 is a big hit on my budget given my other keepers. Am I overthinking this?

    • Let Hamilton go. Maybe if u had him super cheap but too many negatives with him.

  5. Josh says:
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    This is exactly the post I was looking for. When adding your teams stats on excel, do you use last years numbers or their projected numbers? Thanks!

    • I look at previous years for guidance on standings points per category but I generate these based on the Steamer/Razzball projections.

      Using past year projections has issues because: 1) Different offensive environments, 2) Projections often are a little conservative vs actual, and 3) Especially in daily leagues, teams are cranking out counting stats on daily projections that aren’t reflected at the draft.

  6. ferris says:
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    I really like your stuff. Keep up the great strategy pieces!

    Because I had overwhelming hitter keepers, I am 10 rounds in and will only have Felix among the top 25 SPs in a 6×6 (Holds). Would you be more inclined to desperately grab for SPs in the 30 to 40 range or let it go a bit and acquire top closers and elite holds RPs to buffer my softness in era/whip/Ks?

    • Thanks. Just grab the best pitchers available. A Betances and Miller plays well in that format

  7. bossmanjunior333 says:
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    I’ll make sure to avoid the same mistake and bog you down with two much information. Just seeing if you have any other insight.

    10 team h2h league Yahoo with only one UTL

    I have the 7th pick and am torn between Machado, Rizzo, and Correa. I would love to have a top SS (Machado qualifies) and a top 1B, but we can’t all have our cake and eat it too.

    Basically, if I draft Machado/Correa, I will likely miss out on Rizzo and will have to either settle for the best value (Bryant or Mookie) or take a lesser player in Abreu/Encarnacion. If I take best value, I will aim for one of Votto/Davis/Pujols in the applicable round.

    If I draft Rizzo, there is nearly a non-zero chance Machado/Correa will fall to me with the second pick and again, I will likely be picking between Mookie and Bryant as the best value. Further, I will most likely have to settle for the Seager/Lindor/Desmond tier of SS.

    So it comes down to, with my league format, would you rather have the security of having an elite SS or 1B and settling for a lesser at the opposite?

    Thanks Rudy!

    • I like Rizzo best but would go Machado with SS/3B eligibility. Gives you nice flexibility.

      • bossmanjunior333 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        For the second pick, I would take Rizzo obviously if he falls, but otherwise would you take Mookie, Bryant or reach a little for Abreu/Encarnacion? I was already planning on taking two of Marte/Springer/Martinez/Upton in the 3rd and 4th round.

        Thanks again for the feedback!

          • bossmanjunior333 says:
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            @Rudy Gamble:

            Awesome thanks. Thinking the same thing.

            One last question (because I am selfish!), which 1B do you like best based on their Yahoo ADP?

            Votto 25
            Davis 30
            Fielder 46
            AGon 47
            Freeman 64
            Hosmer 70
            Pujols 78
            Ortiz 81
            Belt 112

            Thanks Rudy…have a great weekend!

            • Hard to say – away from computer. Look at my yahoo rankings on player rater…

              • bossmanjunior333 says:
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                @Rudy Gamble:

                The Steamer/razzball rankings, right?

  8. George Bell says:
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    Great job as usual. You have the best fantasy baseball website by far.

  9. Trex arms says:
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    Yahoo, 10 player , 10-12 keeper league , 5×5 league

    In order to get my keepers stocked, I’ve traded away draft picks 1-3.

    What positions do you think I should target in the early rounds of my draft ? I have 2 fifth round picks .

    Posey
    Encarcion
    Odor
    Franco
    Boegarts
    Braun
    Bautista
    Jd Martinez
    Util – heyward
    Util – empty
    Sp – sale, Felix, metZ

    Thanks

  10. Brandon says:
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    Are these totals for only starting positions or your bench players too? Thanks!

    • @Brandon: starting players only (except Yahoo pitching includes 9 pitchers vs 8 given the amount of bench utilization)

  11. CitgoSign1985 says:
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    Hey Rudy! When you say “add a 2nd catcher’s worth” – can you give me some baseline numbers? I am in a CBS 15 team mixed, 2 catcher league. Thanks bud.

  12. Ken levine says:
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    Hey RUDY would you deal a 10 dollar Conforto for a 20 dollar Yelich in a 275 dollar auction league? I have 8 keepers and loads of power already. Thx.

  13. Andrew Ringer says:
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    Hey man, in a 12 man standard 5×5 league when do you try to target your first RP? I like to try and grab one of the top 5 which usually needs to happen around rounds 7/8 for me to have a chance. Would like to hear your input.

    • @Andrew Ringer: I play it by ear – trying to extract as much value. I think Round 7 is a good time to start thinking about it. If the post-Kimbrel top tier RPs are starting to go off the board then, I try to snag one in rounds 7-8. If there are still some around in Rounds 9-10, I consider taking a 2nd.

  14. Kevin G says:
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    Hey Rudy – great work as always!

    Do you have your own rankings somewhere on this site? Are the Steamer rankings yours?

    Would like to compare the players you like vs the ones Grey likes. Thanks!

    Side note – do you or Grey every do the NFBC tournaments?

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