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Tyler Mahle, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

January 4, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 25 Comments

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Ya know when people really love the starters I love? About a year after I love them. I’m happy for Kenta Maeda, Max Fried, Yu Darvish, Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Plesac and Sonny Gray. Really, I am. And I might own some of them this year. Happy to pay the price. Know when I told you to draft them when their price was still dirt cheap? Last year around this time. I drafted Yu Darvish, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Woodruff and Lamet on a bunch of teams last year for half of their price or less, and, when I did, people were like, “Wow, you have a handsome face, but obviously you’re dumb as balls.” Who’s having the last laugh now? Me, a soft chuckle that builds into a loud, wildly obnoxious cackle. I don’t just happen to state my bona fides in this post for s’s and g’s. I think I need to lay out my case for why I’m not crazy to want to draft Tyler Mahle. Prior to this year, T. Mahle was best known for “Tuesday’s special that give you indigestion.” So, what can we expect from Tyler Mahle for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Tyler Mahle sleeper, just wanted to announce all my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now. So II, the Tyler Mahle sleeper:

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Grey

Kevin Gausman, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

January 1, 2021 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 117 Comments

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Without copping to being a rocket surgeon or just someone with an abnormally-sized brain, Kevin Gausman jumped off the page to me as the very first pitching sleeper, and a guy I want in every league. Always a good sign is me seeing someone’s stats, and scratching my head why they’re not being drafted higher. There’s not one thing I can find for Kevin Gausman that makes him less than an ideal sleeper. The only thing I can think of that is scaring people off, and this feels like a stretch, but maybe his 5.72 ERA from 2019. I don’t know, I’m merely guessing. People are smarter than that, though. I mean, not all people, obviously, but if you’re playing fantasy baseball, you know better than to look at ERA from a guy who bounced between the ‘pen and rotation eighteen months ago, right? I mean, I mean, I MEAN! We’re not talking about the general public here. The people who care are guys and five girls who are such fans of baseball they’re playing fantasy baseball so they most know better, right? No? Okay. Last year, Kevin Gausman’s surface area numbers are gorgeous, and make me engorged. 11.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 3.06 xFIP in 59 2/3 IP. You can put those numbers next to any pitcher in the game and you’d be hard-pressed to figure out which one is Kevin Gausman and which one is, say, Gerrit Cole. Yes, I said Gerrit Cole. Allow me to explain with Cole’s numbers:  11.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 3.38 xFIP. Such a new schooler that you spell it nu skool? Gausman had a 3.24 SIERA and Cole’s was 3.21. Trying to figure out why Gerrit Cole is being drafted in the top 5 overall in some leagues and Gausman’s going around 160? Effin’ A, me too. So, what can we expect from Kevin Gausman for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

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Grey

Franmil Reyes, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

December 31, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 71 Comments

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I sorted Steamer projections by home runs, and did one of those skimming jobs I’m famous for. You didn’t know I was a famous skimmer? Oh, yeah, worked as a pool boy for five summers in my youth without the use of a net. I once skimmed the 729-tome A People’s History of the United States, and fifteen minutes later, came away with a working knowledge that Taft was fat. Splendid, very astute skimmer, I am. Skimming the Steamer projections, notably by home runs, led me to find a few gems for sleeper posts, but I thought you’d throw tomatoes at me if I wrote one on Pete Alonso, and I didn’t want to write one on Yordan Alvarez, because I think he’s accurately priced considering injury. Which brings us to Franmil Reyes, and the first time (at least that I can remember) that I’ve written a sleeper post for a utility-only hitter. As mentioned last week in my position eligibility for 2021 fantasy baseball, not a ton (palindrome!) of guys have multi-position eligibility this year. So, natch — snatch? — there’s a lot of guys with Utility-only eligibility. Speaking of snatches, maybe Franmil gets time in the outfield this year to make some, and get that eligibility. Where did you think I was going with ‘speaking of snatches?’ Oh. I see. I say he could see time in the outfield, because Cleveland currently has zero outfielders that have done anything of note, and they’re supposedly sellers. Unless Google was right when I looked up UTIL., and found a Urinary-Tract-Infection-Lingering, and I need to rethink everything. So, what can we expect from Franmil Reyes for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

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Grey

Yu of Chicago Transfers to Yu of San Diego

December 29, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 101 Comments

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Padres’ great aunt passed away and left them with a fortune, but they had to spend it all by Monday at midnight. The way the Padres are going Chris Paddack is soon gonna be the long-man out of the bullpen. Okay, please comment below if the Padres have traded for, signed or spoke to you about acquiring your services in the last two days. I’m tracking all Padres’ moves. There’s only one team making moves this offseason, what an absolute mess. The only must-see MLB games this year are gonna Padres’ split-squad games. Can the Padres sign George Springer and J.T. Realmuto too (Realmutoo?), so we get this offseason over and onto the real stuff? Half expecting Rob Manfred to announce divisions will be taking turns, and only the NL West is playing in 2021. Just had a solid laugh thinking about the Giants’ lineup going into a four-game series vs. the Padres. Please, Alex Dickerson, don’t hurt ’em! So, Yu Darvish went to the Padres, because of course he did. The Padres are rumored to acquire (insert name of best player for your favorite team).

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Grey

The Rays Can’t Afford A Landline So San Diego Called Them On Their Snell

December 28, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 75 Comments

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The Rays are Matthew McConaughey in Dazed & Confused with underpaid pre-arb rookie contract players being their high school girls. The Rays write the address a letter is going to where the return address is supposed to be, then don’t put postage on the letter so it’s “returned” to its destination. The Rays are NBC with their iconic The Hogan Family, then the Rays cut Valerie Harper, sign on Sandy Duncan and don’t miss a beat. Someone needs to fold 15 MLB teams into one team that can actually afford free agents.

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Grey

Another JB Coming To Washington

December 25, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 40 Comments

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Merry Christmas, you giant nerds! Look at you, checking a fantasy baseball blog on Christmas like a bunch of giant nerds! That’s why I love you. Seriously, I have love for you. Like someone who’s never met someone else could love someone. Very, very intimate. I wasn’t planning on doing a post today, but Josh Bell was traded to the Nationals and I really wanted to get out this update post of so many other signings, that I was like, “Meh, what the heck, put it out there for my over-the-internet friends since this Christmas is like none I’ve ever lived through.” I miss my family, but I have you, my non-family family. So, Josh Bell was traded to the Nats, conspicuously within minutes of, well, we know what happened here. The Pirates’ payroll needed to be slashed after the House was unable to increase the stimulus checks to $2,000. Now that Josh Bell is in Washington there’s only one thing can we can be certain of:  confirmed Josh Bell 2021 All-Star. Could see Josh Bell out-pitching even Tyler Glasnow. If he wants to, of course. He might just want to hit. So, getting out of Pittsburgh can’t hurt anyone. He’s also coming off one of the boringiest (totally a word!) 1st baseman seasons. How’sever, if 2019 was only two months long, Josh Bell would’ve been a top 20 overall player last year. What’s my point? Meh, don’t really have one, but Josh Bell was hurt by last year’s small sample, and hurt by 2019’s, uh, long sample. Who is Josh Bell in Washington? A better question might be how long is this season going to be and when will it start? Josh Bell is prolly somewhere between the two extremes of his 1st few months of 2019, and his 2020. For 2021, I’ll give Josh Bell projections of 73/26/81/.257/1 in 512 ABs. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2021 fantasy baseball:

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Grey

Position Eligibility for 2021 Fantasy Baseball

December 24, 2020 | 2021 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy | 63 Comments

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On Dancer! On Prancer! On–Oh, I didn’t hear you come in. Welcome, reader! Grab some egg nog and brandy it up to the fire. You look festive. I love that Rudolph tongue ring. That’s the great thing about Christmas, no matter what your interpretation is, it’s all about commercialism. That’s unless you light the Munenori Kawasaki. The 2021 fantasy baseball rankings are not far away. Right now, January Grey is throwing darts at a board to figure out where to rank Randy Arozarena:  rookie, customer of Big Bossman’s Bail Bonds, and first ballot Hall of Famer — a triple threat! In the meantime, let’s look at the players who have multiple position eligibility for this upcoming 2021 fantasy baseball season. I did this list of multi-position eligible players because I figured it would help for your 2021 fantasy baseball drafts. I’m a giver, snitches! Happy Holidays! Seriously, in a year as crazy as 2020, take a moment and thank those you truly love:  Me.

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Grey

Jorge Polanco, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

December 22, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 34 Comments

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Sleepers don’t have to mean they put you to sleep, but in this case…Well…I mean…Yawns…Looks both ways at a red light, briefly dozes off…What were we talking about? Jorge Polanco! Right! Pure excitement! Exclamation mark after exclamation mark! Jorge Polanco came with large question marks prior to last year (in my mind, at least). Here’s what I said about him going into last year, “I know by heart most of the main stats from the main guys within a couple homers and ten to fifteen runs or RBIs. If you asked me Polanco’s home run total prior to writing this blurb, I would’ve started at 10 and went up by one until the audience at The Price is Right would’ve stood up, booing, and left the theater. Then, finally, when I found out he hit 22 homers, I would’ve looked up his stats at three different sites, not believing it. Then, finally, I would’ve said his HR/FB% must’ve been at least 25%, only to find out I was, like a good linens sale, roughly 15% off. Wow, Polanco hits lots of fly balls. I had no idea. That doesn’t bode well for his .295 average. I don’t know how to figure this out, but I bet his season last year was in the top 5% of the statistical anomalous, and I don’t even know what ‘statistical anomalous’ means. I just made it up. I guess what I’m saying if you had a guy who hit 44.4% fly balls and finished in the bottom 5% of exit velocity, it’s statistically impossible for him to have a .295 average. Though, that brings another point up, Polanco makes a good case against Statcast’s “line drives,” which are different than Baseball Info Solutions (which are used by Fangraphs), because Polanco had the 6th most “line drives” from BIS, but finished hideously for exit velocity, according to StatCast. If you hit .295, you have to think BIS’s ‘line drives” are more accurate. Okay, could someone text me their coordinates, because I just went down a massive rabbit hole and got lost.” And that’s me quoting me! What I feared would happen last preseason happened. His 2020 numbers were .258/.304/.354 and he hit four homers and stole four bags. So, why have high hopes for him this year? Or rather…So, what can we expect from Jorge Polanco for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Eric Hosmer, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

December 21, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 50 Comments

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Here’s the fun sleepers! Put away your Dylan Moores! Get out of the way with your Franchies! Stop exploring the dirty stuff you want to do with your Ryan Jefferii! We’re looking at a guy who is way more exciting than that! *sees we’re looking at Eric Hosmer* Okay, I take that back. Eric Hosmer isn’t exciting at all. Yeah, he’s boring as all crizzap. Let’s hit the snooze button and take a siesta, what say you? You’re already asleep? Okay, cool. I will just go ahead…and…slide…my spoon right next to your fork–WHOA! Stop yelling! I was going to nap with you! Hayzeus Francisco Cristo! I didn’t mean to upset you. It was just Eric Hosmer hit nine homers and .287 last year, and lowered his strikeouts to 17.9% and stole four bags and all in 143 ABs…Hey, wait a second, I’m getting excited for Eric Hosmer! That’s weird, and awkward since I’m still spooning you — How ya doin’. So, what can we expect from Eric Hosmer for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

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Grey

Austin Riley, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

December 18, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 74 Comments

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Okay, okay, OKAY! Stop your giggling. So, I might’ve been here before, writing a similar post for the last 12 years. Well, listen, wise guy, Austin Riley is only 23 years old, so it couldn’t have been 12 years unless he was a sleeper in an Esports league. By the by, is Spanish-language Esports called DEsportes? Or dEsportes? Or Esportes? Or something else? My brain hurts thinking about this. You know what else makes my brain hurt? Eating ice cream too fast and not drafting Austin Riley and I’m all out of ice cream! What? You know exactly what I’m saying! I believe it was around August 15th, about fifteen days and/or halfway through the previous season, when I said something like, “Austin Riley can’t stop striking out, huh? Man and five ladies, he is bad,” then I looked away and went back in October to look at some guys. Grey Looks At Some Guys coming up next, a new special brought to you by the Hallmark Channel and For Eyes. Austin Riley’s strikeout rate was 30.8% in July, 29.3% in August and I wrote him off. Then, after the season, I went back and saw he had a 17.3% strikeout rate in September and I slowly looked both ways to see if anyone else was seeing what I was seeing. They weren’t! Yes, it’s a little goofy to break down what a hitter is doing with strikeout rates in such small samples, but last year was goofy, and we don’t have a ton to go on. Plus, this is a narrative we’ve been waiting for with Riley. He had plate discipline in the minors after he settled into a level, and now he’s finally had one full season in the majors (462 career at-bats) and the strikeouts are coming down. If that happens, well…So, what can we expect from Austin Riley for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

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Grey

Rowdy Tellez, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

December 17, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 47 Comments

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As I’ve said numerous times, one of the most important aspects of fantasy baseball sleepers is their playing time. Sexy eh-eff stats will only get you so far if you’re drafting a hitter who is in a platoon or worse, no path to at-bats. I’m making an exception for Rowdy Tellez. His numbers are impossible to ignore. Legit hate that he’s a lefty and Major League managers have a blind spot with splits. No matter what the numbers say a lefty is vs. lefties, somehow managers always use that as a reason to get a hitter a ‘mental’ break. This year:  Rowdy Tellez hit .333 in 27 ABs vs. lefties, better than he hit vs. righties. ACKSUALLY, hitting .267 vs. righties. In 2019, it was more of the same, hitting .270 vs. lefties in 115 ABs, and .208 vs. righties in 255 ABs. Some would be concerned that Charlie Montoyo would platoon him out when facing righties, and, who knows, but that would be some Galaxy Brain shizz and doubt it happens. Speaking of Galaxy Brain shizz, why do I want to call Charlie Montoyo “Tony Montana?” It’s close but not quite, so I will call him the same I call everyone I see without a mask, but making due with their clothes, Scarf-face. Any hoo! A platoon is a slight concern, but about those Rowdy Tellez numbers that are impossible to ignore, or rather:  So, what can we expect from Rowdy Tellez for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Dylan Moore, 2021 Fantasy Sleeper

December 15, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 76 Comments

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Dylan Moore is, simply put, Whit Merrifield for people who are smarter than Albert Einstein. You can hem, and you can haw, and you can even hew, but there’s no getting around it. Austin Meadows is the most overrated dumpster fire that was born from a stork pooping into a grassy field, so don’t even come at me with that guy, but if you want it, here goes: Dylan Moore is, simply put, Austin Meadows for people who look after wiping. You get up without looking? You’re a dirty stork-dropping turd hole and you’re not smart enough to see the wonderous wonder that is Dylan Moore. Dylan Moore is a young man’s Lorenzo Cain. Call him Still Able Cain. You want a better metaphor? Come up with it yourself, you two-bit noodle nose! How about we put some meat on these bones? In Dylan Moore’s last 151 games in the majors, he’s hit 17 homers and stole 23 bases. Wanna come at me with another guy who you want to compare him to? Fine, Tommy Pham went 24/31 and is a decade (minus six years) older than Dylan Moore. But get this, Pham’s Ks were going up last year and he hit .211. Moore’s Ks went down and he hit .255. Whaddup, Pham?! Who else you got to compare him to? Kevin Keirmaier?! Fine, go for it with Keirmaier, who has had one healthy season in his seven-year career when he went 10/18 back in 2015. Good luck with that! You want more? Well, I want Moore! So, what can we expect from Dylan Moore for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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