Padres’ great aunt passed away and left them with a fortune, but they had to spend it all by Monday at midnight. The way the Padres are going Chris Paddack is soon gonna be the long-man out of the bullpen. Okay, please comment below if the Padres have traded for, signed or spoke to you about acquiring your services in the last two days. I’m tracking all Padres’ moves. There’s only one team making moves this offseason, what an absolute mess. The only must-see MLB games this year are gonna Padres’ split-squad games. Can the Padres sign George Springer and J.T. Realmuto too (Realmutoo?), so we get this offseason over and onto the real stuff? Half expecting Rob Manfred to announce divisions will be taking turns, and only the NL West is playing in 2021. Just had a solid laugh thinking about the Giants’ lineup going into a four-game series vs. the Padres. Please, Alex Dickerson, don’t hurt ’em! So, Yu Darvish went to the Padres, because of course he did. The Padres are rumored to acquire (insert name of best player for your favorite team).

Yu Darvish in San Diego makes me want to draft a top starter so bad, but it will just make my practice of Starter Tantric that much more impressive. If you stop right in the middle of drafting a top starter, it helps with your self-control. I read that in a book that had Ganesha on the cover. Darvish is so well-known a break down of him feels besides the point, but here’s the general gist:  11+ K/9, barely-2 BB/9, low-3 xFIP, peaking out on SwStr%, and his O-Contact% is goofy impressive. He has a Zone% of 48%, which was highest in the majors last year for qualified pitchers, yet he had a top ten rate for lowest O-Contact. That means he throws everything around the plate and hitters still can’t hit it. That’s essentially the royal flush of what pitchers want. For 2021, I’ll give Yu Darvish projections of 14-8/2.79/1.03/237 in 188 IP. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2021 fantasy baseball:

Victor Caratini – Also went to the Padres, because he’s Yu Darvish’s personal catcher. Well, Darvish, you’re not the only one:

How many backup catchers for ‘rich’ teams would be the starter for a ‘poor’ team? Caratini isn’t just a vodka-straight-up-stirred-with-a-carrot, he’d also be the starter on at least 10 other teams. Though, one of those teams would trade for him, then bench him for someone like Tony Wolters. You know what team I’m talking about. For 2021, I’ll give Victor Caratini projections of 33/10/37/.261 in 231 ABs.

Ha-Seong Kim – Signed with the Padres. This sucks for my Jake Cronenworth sleeper, or the Padres know something about the DH being in the NL. My guess-slash-hope is the DH will be there in the NL, but, yeah, I don’t know for sure. As for Kim, we’re all making the same mistake we make every year with players, especially hitters, coming from the KBO. The pitchers in the KBO are not great. Dan Straily went there and looked like Dan All-Starily. Was that Dan Straily pitching or did Jacob deGrom pitch via Zoom on his days off in his place? Let’s grab a random pitcher, say, Jose Urena. He’d go to the KBO and be a 12 K/9 pitcher. I’m not exaggerating. Straily went from a 6.5 K/9 in the majors to 9.5 in Korea. So, Ha-Seong Kim’s KBO stats look great — 30/23/.306 — but Jung Ho Kang hit 40 homers in Korea one year. KBO is about the same competition level of Double-A. Stop getting roped into the “KBO hitter coming to the majors” narrative. Maybe Ha-Seong Kim sneaks into 15+ homers and 15+ steals, but a superstar, he is not. For 2021, I’ll give Ha-Seong Kim projections of 62/17/58/.254/15 in 519 ABs.

Zach Davies – Went the other way in the 1,000,000% dump trade by the Cubs. The Cubs are such a jizzoke. Hey, can the Cubs not compete in that small market of Chicago? Is this serious? Not going to blow my lid, but I have steam coming out my ears. What if, and bear with me here, you tried to be competitive because you’re a billion dollar sports team? What a crazy idea, huh? I’m turning into the Joker. Okay, to be the only levelheaded person online, no one will know if this was a good trade for the Cubs for five years. So, the problem with Davies is he relied so much on his change last year, and his fastball is goofy bad. That could work in sixty games, but will it work longer term? If you like guys who throw 88 MPH, then Davies will help you get your kinks on. For 2021, I’ll give Zach Davies projections of 7-9/3.93/1.28/122 in 161 IP.

Charlie Culberson – Signed with the Rangers. Culber Charlieson was not included in the deal, as far as I know.

 
  1. Dougie says:
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    Grey, I’m losing my mind right now. I’m in Chicago reading people rationalizing this trade on twitter. ~$60M over the next three years and people are like”I get it, he’s too expensive” WHAT? Dear god, wake up people! If thats Yu’s value I wonder what kind of contract Bauer’s gonna land.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Unless you’re reading the Ricketts family Xmas card, I can’t imagine anyone thinking it’s expensive, it’s not, my guess, their money

      • Dougie says:
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        You know that feeling when you wake up from a nice sleep, Your feeling good and then suddenly you start remembering and reality comes flooding in? Despair.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, you mean what everyone’s felt for the last 10 months?

          • Dougie says:
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            Yes, exactly, except this time it’s coming from my escape from reality, from the people who have the ability to provide hope and excitement, happiness. The distraction from hard times is a mere reminder of hard times.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Well said!

  2. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!!

    Awesome and excellent rolled into one fantasy update report!!

    a. Love Yu and love you all in the same breath! Yu could be really good in SD and possibly better than he has over the last few years. Hopefully he stays healthy, he could top 300 IP and 350K if he gets into 33 starts this year and in that park with that lineup? 20-win season + 350K for Yu=top 5 pitcher that you can draft him as your #10 pitcher!

    b. Man, I signed in to be in the ‘Fan of Blue Jays’ group on FB. I’m off the group as of midnight today Hawaii time because they are always whining and complaining. They complain about:

    1. The fact that Kim signed with the Padres when the Blue Jays were ready to sign him (they even showed how there was a direct flight (though 12 hours in a direct flight might make me not want to go to Toronto) from Seoul to Toronto.

    2. When I described the KBO as AAAA MLB (which is 100% better than what you described it above aka AA) they were all over me! Like, the US Olympic team got their asses kicked against the Korean team (I think it was 2006 and I think it was an exhibition series) and Kim’s numbers are better than (insert name of top MLB star). I only told them to curb their enthusiasm because the guy may not sign with Toronto based only on the fact that they put in a ‘competitive offer’ for him and that they have Hyun-Jin on the team. Again, they were livid and called me racist.

    3. Generally speaking, the trend since I’ve joined, is that the fans think Toronto has to sign a top free agent. First it was Lindor, then Bauer, then Kim (there were many others in between) but then they started lowering the bar to guys like Musgrove and Taillon. Then I mentioned that Toronto still doesn’t know where their home games will be in 2021 and this is a huge factor for players when deciding on where to sign ’cause most are married and want their children to be in a stable environment – be it Toronto or Buffalo. But then I mentioned that if it’s Buffalo…And boom! I was blown up by all the Buffalo homers on how awesome Buffalo is and how much the Buffalo Sabres can attract the best players!

    So, I’m out.

    c. Who do you like for the NFC East going into the last week of the NFL season?

    1. Washington (6-9, playing at home on 4 Jan versus the 4-10-1 Eagles)
    2. Dallas (6-9, playing at home on 3 Jan versus the 5-10 NY Giants)

    3. The Skinny
    i. The Giants clinch the NFC East with a win and a Washington loss, piece of cake!
    ii. Washington is in if they win.
    iii. Dallas needs Washington to lose or tie to win the division and they have to beat the NY Giants.

    d. MLB quote of the day for December 29, 2020

    1. Devon White, born December 29, 1962

    ‘He’s (Devon White) the greatest in the world. He’s just awesome, man. I mean, I’ve probably slowed down a little in center field, but I know how the position should be played. And he’s just incredible. The way he plays it, he’s so nonchalant. You hit a ball and your thinking, ‘No way he’s going to get it.’ The next thing you know he’s standing there like this (glove at his chest). I’ve always loved the way the guy plays.’

    Kirby Puckett from Devon White: A ‘Classic Glove’ in Center Field (Steve Fainaru, Baseball Digest, March 1992)

    2. Ken Burkhardt, died December 29, 2004

    ‘I loved my experiences with all of the ballplayers back then and I wish they were still playing today. I do not keep up with things much anymore, but I still follow the Cardinals, though. The games just take too long. I love all the old Cardinals.’

    Ken Burkhardt in The Knoxville News Sentinel (Chuck Cavalaris, 07/14/2004)

    3. Frank Malzone, died December 29, 2015

    ‘His (Frank Malzone) stellar defense remained an asset throughout his career although his range did decrease a little with age. His offense alone wouldn’t have been enough to make him a star, but he was no slouch with the bat either.’

    Sportswriter Brian Martin in Red Sox News (03/10/2007 #39, Frank Malzone, The Top 100 Red Sox in History)

    4. Chris Cannizzaro, died December 29, 2016

    ‘He’s a remarkable catcher, that (Chris) Cannizzaro. He’s the only defensive catcher in baseball, who can’t catch.’

    Manager Casey Stengel (1966)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks!

      A. Would love to see it for Yu and you but I won’t own him in fantasy
      B.Does it meet in Buffalo? Honestly, I’m surprised Toronto’s been linked to so many FAs, but their core of young players is great, they should add on — maybe they’ll get Bauer, tho I’d be surprised
      C. Always Dallas, no?

      4. HA!

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        Grey!!!

        a. Hadn’t done any Italians in quotes so I said better do two but then they were both players who died so that kind of negates the effect, right? Sorry. Loved the Casey Stengell quote a lot. I knew you would too.

        b. How ’bout dem Cowboys! When they won the Super Bowl in 1995. Terrible organization. I wrote 4 January (British style) rather than the American style January 4 on the dates!!! So glad you were able to understand (though I know you speak several languages so duh!!)!!

        c. Toronto will sign nobody good. They were saying that Kim would be a good fit in TO even though they have a SS. But Bo has mentioned that he’d move to 2B if they signed Kim to play SS. What they really need is a 3B ’cause Vladdy is going to be a negative in the field.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. Yeah, good ones!

          B. I speak fluent British calendar

          C. Yeah, prolly not, but it’s nice they’re pretending unlike so many teams

          • Ante GALIC says:
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            Grey!

            Toronto shouldn’t panic, they have 2B covered!

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Haha, true

      • Tom says:
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        I also wish Yu and the Padres the best but I also won’t be owning any shares especially at what will surely be a higher draft position.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, unfortunately I won’t either, was nice owning Yu last year

  3. Jimmy says:
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    Lewin Diaz or Nate Lowe? 20 team dynasty league 5×5…you make laugh every time I read your stuff!! Thanks for the great info!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! I think it’s close, I’d lean Lowe for this year, Lewin for future

  4. Sweatpants Nation says:
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    I read the Padres are trying to accumulate the best players they can and figure out how to play them later. Similar to how the Dodgers won. Looks like guys will be moving in and out of the lineup a bunch. Not good for fantasy value beyond Machado, Tatis, Grisham, and maybe Hosmer (sleeper!). The rest might struggle to get 450 ABs. I agree with you on Kim. All he does is mess up Cronenworth. They like Nola as a super utility guy so maybe he finds his way into the lineup at various positions but he’ll be a tough play in weekly leagues.
    Maybe they aren’t done yet or like you said maybe the DH stays in the NL which would help a little.
    I wish MLB GMs would consider fantasy players. So inconsiderate.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yanks did thast famously with LeMahieu too, member they had no place to play him, supposedly

      Cronenworth is screwed unless something happens, but something always happens

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        I am dropping him in my rankings tho

        • Cgg says:
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          Cronenworth is going to play the of

      • Sweatpants Nation says:
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        So true. Somethings ALWAYS happens. Like Shakespeare in Love. It’s a mystery.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, um, yeah!

  5. Dave D says:
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    I was thinking how terrible this is as a Zach Davies and Mack Gore owner, but then I thought when I was reading your 88mph dig “What about Kyle Hendricks?” I guess he could be traded, but, if not, maybe he could show Davies how to master Wrigley. His career numbers there arent terrible: 9 GS 4-3 3.70 ERA 1.28 WhIP, but its a crappier ballpark and team. UGH!

    • Coolwhip says:
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      For sure haha. My first thought was there goes my Zach Davies value. We had a good run, all 60 games of it.

      The Cubs like Hendricks so much, they wanted to get a second one.

      • Dave D says:
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        Yeah, I guess it’d have been too much to have our Halos trade for Snell. I’d give Adell straight up and try my luck with Marsh.

        Im doing a hockey draft now. No Ducks allowed.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Haha, warding off all Anaheim love, especially Taylor Ward

        • Coolwhip says:
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          Yeah, apparently though Yu was going for peanuts. I think even we could have got him with lower level prospects grading below 45 lol. I better see Bauer and Odorizzi (or someone else comparable) wearing Halos or I’m gonna lose my mind. Preller going apeshit on trades/signings gives me the worst FOMO.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      My first thought with Davies is he’s Hendricks light-throwing brother from another mother…They’re pretty similar, indeed…Davies is still an okay ratio play if I’m projecting him for 3.93, that’s great for how late he’s going

    • Hernan says:
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      Davies will be ok, doesn’t have to pitch at coors or face the Dodgers lineup 4/5 times…, (insert smiley/sarcastic emoji here)…., he gets the pirates and so…

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Yeah, prolly could do worse where he’s being drafted — like Taijuan Walker

        • Hernan says:
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          Yeah, they’re big sleeper picks in league where “pitch to contact “ is a category…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Haha, nice

            • Dave D says:
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              Haha! You will both be looking up at me in the standings. Take that to the bank!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Haha

  6. Will says:
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    Cub nation is seriously pissed at the Ricketts over this Darvish trade. Like you said, it might look good for the Cubs in 5 years but who knows? A lot of those 4 prospects haven’t even had an at bat yet in affiliated baseball. Also if you are Javy, Bryant or Rizzo why would you want to stick around during a fire sale teardown? I have to think all 3 get traded this season.

    • The Itch

      The Itch says:
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      Trade em all!

      Daddy needs a new pair of north side parking lots!

    • Malicious Phenoms says:
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      Cubs got fleeced, no way Theo makes that trade

      2022 Padres rotation

      Clevinger
      Darvish
      Snell
      Morejon/Paddack
      Gore

      • Will says:
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        You’re assuming of course there is a 2022 season…CBA and all that. But yeah that’s a nice set of starters for the Padres.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Their 2021 rotation isn’t bad as it is

      • Dougie says:
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        Mehhh, he made the Q trade.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, it feels like a chop shop deal — ya know one place you never wanna be? Following Theo Epstein into a job

  7. The Itch

    The Itch says:
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    Today we are all Yancy

    • Coolwhip says:
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      HAHAHA facts

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Unless we’re Padres fans

        • Coolwhip says:
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          Its a good thing Razzball is now a Stan Diego website!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Stan Diego 4 life

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Funny to think how people used to say I hated the Padres five years ago when they were terrible…I don’t like or dislike all teams if they’re good or bad

              • Coolwhip says:
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                HAHA. yeah, I don’t hate anyone … except the Astros. #bangbangneverforget

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Haha, I don’t even really hate them, tbh…But they can suck it

  8. Coolwhip says:
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    Remember when we thought the Cubs were going to be perrenial contenders for years to come, that the organization was set for a while to churn out a competitive team? yeah me neither. LOL.

    Theo leaves and it takes all of 5 min for them to trash the place.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Been trying to think of a similar situation as Theo — best I’ve come up with is he’s McNulty — comes in, gets his man (title) then burns the place to the ground

      • Coolwhip says:
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        Yeah, thats as close as i can come to it, this is new territory (maybe). Though Theo isn’t the one burning it, its the everyone that’s still there and Hoyer.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          That’s true, McNulty doesn’t work for that reason…Theo does really gut out a system for the big win tho

          • Coolwhip says:
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            Yeah, true. Though he builds it up to a big win. Theo was responsible for a lot of the talent they grew in the farm system, including the guys on roster and that were traded.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Yeah, and I don’t begrudge the curse being lifted in Chicago or Boston, but you’d think they’d have something when he left

    • The Great Knoche says:
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      I think best analogy might be 1995 Blue Jays after Gillick left.

      Alomar
      Leiter
      Devon White
      Cone
      Olereud

      All sent on their way. Was still a competitive team otherwise. They didn’t make the playoffs for 20 years after that.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Was trying to think of something non-baseball related tho

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          Sorry missed that caveat. How about Bobby the Brain Heenan bailing on Mr. Perfect in 1991?

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            HAHA, I like any wrestling metaphor

            • Coolwhip says:
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              haha, how about when HHH returned and teamed up with Flair in Evolution to win the tag title and then afterwards HHH betrayed him and left him in a bloody mess, ending Evolution as we know it. THE HORROR!

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                The horror! Haha…Any wrestling metaphor will always work for me…

      • Coolwhip says:
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        Yes thats a great in-baseball analogy GK… btw you’ll be happy to know my Mitch Garver post is coming up soon, ha.

        • The Great Knoche says:
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          Fantastic! I took him as my Catcher 1 in my first NFBC DC, so I hope it’s all good news.

          • Coolwhip says:
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            What pick did you nab him at? he’s super cheap so far.

            • The Great Knoche says:
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              15.4

              214 Overall.

              • Coolwhip says:
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                Nice, yeah his adp has been creeping up in the last week. He started out at like 275, which is nuts.

    • Tom says:
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      How much did the Heyward contact hurt the Cubbies?

      • hot corner says:
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        The Heyward contract hurt but he helped win a WS, so it is what it is. There have been other moves that hurt more. Trading Eloy and Cease for Quintana. Signing Kimbel for multiple years. Signing Tyler Chatwood for multiple years. Not trading Schwarber when he had actual value.

        Fact is that the Cubs are not WS contenders with Darvish, but still could win a weak division without him.

        • Coolwhip says:
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          Agree with HC. Heyward was a win now move. He was the best defensive outfielder at the time by any measurement and they were hoping the offense would come back. But they def shoveled out the cash to win and are shouldering the burden of it now.

  9. Phil says:
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    12 team 5×5 roto league, teams keep 4 players in exchange for a draft pick (every subsequent year the draft value is half-lifed, so a player drafted two years ago in round 6 would cost a 3rd round pick this year).

    I’m trying to decide on whether to go with deGrom, Yelich and Lindor and lose my 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks respectively, or keep Trent Grisham, Arozarena, and Sixto Sanchez at 22, 23 and 24 (or a combination of the above players). Although I was leaning towards keeping the studs, I would in essence have my first pick in round 4, with a very shallow pool of available players. Also, some of my competition are keeping studs that don’t cost as much as mine, such as Bieber, Tatis, Jr., Luis Robert, Story, Acuna, etc. all not costing more than a 4th round pick.

    Grey and others, any opinions on how you’d approach this?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      deGrom side

  10. Johnny Be Good says:
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    Grey, Happy Holidays bud!! Need some keeper advice for a 12 team H2H scoring.

    Need 3 keepers from these choices:
    – Voit in 10th
    – Alonso in 12th
    – Bauer in 4th
    – Severino in 22nd
    – Wander Franco in 21st

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      You too!

      Alonso, Bauer, Voit

  11. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Royals sign Ervin Santana to Milb deal

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I liked the Minor and Santana deal for them, but Ervin shouldn’t break camp

  12. Smitty says:
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    SD super stacked! Finally seeing some movement, but must give credit to clubs who moved early, like the Braves. SD is certainly going for it and didn’t have to part with too much. And of course TB does what TB does, evaluate and stockpile. Let it rain! Dam is ready to burst Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, yup!

  13. Norman Ginsberg says:
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    I just saw the trade details — I couldn’t believe they could get Snell and Darvish w/o losing anyone meaningful from their roster (Zach Davis would have no role) or their top prospect (Gore).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I know, it’s crazy

  14. Jr says:
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    As a Dodger fan who owns Cronenworth in dynasty yesterday kinda sucked. But life goes on…

    10 team H2h cats dynasty league with 20+ major and 5-10 minor league players kept per team. Obp instead of average, walks as a hitting counting stat, and we’re adding CI, MI, and a 4th OF spot to rosters in 2021…

    What level of player would you move Franco for? Everyone keeps saying he’s a can’t miss prospect who will probably be too fantasy player in a few years, but have to do my due diligence. Anyone in the top 10? Top 20? I might make a run at Bellinger after a down year last year and he’d probably want Franco in that deal but not really sure how to value him.

    I typically try to stash prospects and move them for big league talent (also have rutschman, Brujan, and a lot of pitching prospects) that I’ll try to move, but everyone says don’t move Franco. Curious what your thoughts are.

    Great stuff! Thanks for keeping things interesting during the off-season!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Wander could be two years away from being Tatis, but I would take Cody B., that sounds fair

  15. Malicious Phenoms says:
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    Justin Smoak a Giant, in Japan lol

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Haha, good place for him

  16. Bamabterry says:
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    Wooo hoo. Snagged ha seong do ray mi fa so in our best ball 10’s draft late enough where these projections look good to me!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nice, bamabterry!

  17. Dan says:
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    Saw Robles signed with Minnesota. Think he could be a solid bounce back candidate for late rounds?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Blech

  18. ZodPadFan says:
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    Look at the Pads 2022 rotation and add Lamet to it.

    It’s even better!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yup

  19. KT says:
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    What happens to Austin Nola’s value after the Yu trade?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nothing

      • KT says:
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        Thank you.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  20. Task Force says:
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    Hey Grey working on my keepers for 6×6 Roto OBP and Holds. $10 to keep up to 5 total players:

    Abreu – 2
    Albies – 1
    Lindor – 5
    Redon – 2
    Y Alvarez – 2
    Mondessi – 1
    Stanton – 3
    Grisham – 1

    Darvish – 1
    Lamet – 1
    Gioloto – 1
    Woodruff – 1
    S Grey – 1
    L Hendricks – 1

    Having a hard time keeping pitching over hitting which I’ve never done. Leaning towards waiting to see where Lindor gets traded to and go from there but want a straw plan.

    Thanks in advance.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Guess wait to see on Lindor, but it’s not like he’s going to be traded to a worse team — Lindor, Yu, Giolito, Abreu then I’m stuck between Albies, Mondesi and Woodruff

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Good choices to have!

        • Task Force says:
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          Exactly! Usually don’t have enough good choices but embarrassment of riches this year!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            It’s a good problem to have

  21. Scott Kimmel says:
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    Grey,

    I am looking for sites that can give me the projected auction salaries of players from the 2019, 2020, and 2021 season. Besides yours, can you tell me where else I can get them from? I cant seem to locate older values from Rotochamps. I can only find the 2021 season and nothing before that. Any help would be appreciated

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Nah, I have no idea

Comments are closed.