The Rays are Matthew McConaughey in Dazed & Confused with underpaid pre-arb rookie contract players being their high school girls. The Rays write the address a letter is going to where the return address is supposed to be, then don’t put postage on the letter so it’s “returned” to its destination. The Rays are NBC with their iconic The Hogan Family, then the Rays cut Valerie Harper, sign on Sandy Duncan and don’t miss a beat. Someone needs to fold 15 MLB teams into one team that can actually afford free agents.

So, wanna talk about luck? Or bad luck, as it were. For the first time in years, I was going to be in on Blake Snell. I drafted him already in two leagues, and was ready to draft him in more. Suddenly, the price was affordable. It was as if people had forgotten how great it is. He suddenly felt safe going into 2021 fantasy baseball drafts because of a discount. He was being drafted as the 17th pitcher off the board! Slightly even funny thinking about Snell at a discount. Not a large guffaw, but a small chuckle right before you bang your head on a cabinet door after thinking about Kevin Cash removing Snell with a 7-1 lead through 4 2/3 innings. Now, I have a feeling he will no longer be reasonably priced, after his trade to the San Diego Padres. Why he was even at a discount, well…I don’t know. Can anyone explain to me how Snell doesn’t have a 11+ K/9 and low-3 xFIP in any season? Have you seen him pitch? This is exactly the type of year when you absolutely want to own Snell, and this is coming from someone who has never wanted to own him before. When every pitcher will struggle to throw 150 IP, due to the season’s limitations or just being tired off a short-season, Snell’s 150 IP will look so good comparatively. Someone bet me $5 that I will welch on that Snell won’t be a top 15 starter next year. C’mon, you don’t even have a fake five spot?

With the trade, I expect Blake Snell to flourish, as he’s been flourishing. Maybe Jayce Tingler will even let him finish a 5th inning. Can’t flourish without a 5th inning finish. Hey, that’s good. Did I just make that up? Put that shizz on a bumper sticker, koozie, and a shirt. I’m not even going to explain to you why you should ignore his career 3.97 road ERA. It means nothing. He’ll escape seeing Fenway and Yankee Stadium, but will see Coors and the Dodgers. It’s all a wash, and his new park will do him just fine. For 2021, I’ll give Blake Snell projections of 13-6/3.12/1.18/187 in 153 IP, and he’s absolutely a number one starter. Hopefully, he stays around the 17th pitcher off the board. If not, well, at least I own him in a couple leagues already. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2021 fantasy baseball:

Luis Patino – Went the other way in the Snell trade. I’ve already given you my Luis Patino 2021 fantasy, and his projections are in that post. One thing I will say is once the dust settles, I might shine up that Patino with some new projections if it appears the Rays are going to start him in the rotation, which is my guess at this point. I’m seeing some reporting that the Rays supposedly have Josh “Is that a LOOGY, Congestion or” Fleming in their rotation, but I doubt that lasts.

Francisco Mejia – Also went to the Rays. Still believe in Mejia, but that belief is just about at Nileseyy Niles giving the peace sign. Or is that reference so obscure I’ve lost everyone like you’ve lost faith in Mejia? The Rays just signed Zunino, and, have you heard, the Rays don’t waste money. I’d be shocked if Zunino is dumped. He just got a two-million-dollar contract, that’s the equivalent to the Rays giving someone a Trout contract. For 2021, I’ll give Francisco Mejia projections of 31/8/33/.264/1 in 235 ABs, but I am intrigued.

Kohei Arihara – Right-hander from Japan was signed by the Rangers for their rotation. So, he’s a 3.15 ERA pitcher with 12 or fewer walks in 175 IP, or is every player coming out of Japan not in the mold of Miles Mikolas? From Nileseyy Niles to Miles Mikolas, and I guarantee you no one else has those two in the same write-up ever. So, this year I had a sudden realization that the Tokyo Yakult Swallows weren’t named after birds. Yakult is a beverage. It would be like calling a team, the Taco Bell Farts. Arihara played for their rival, the Ham Fighters, which I’m now realizing is a company that makes ham. Is it me or did the Japanese team owners name all their baseball teams on an empty stomach? On the Ham Fighters last year, Arihara went 3.46 ERA with a 106/30 K/BB ratio over 132 2/3 innings, so, yeah, he might be a 4.25 ERA pitcher, even in the pitchers’ park in Texas. Maybe as a late-round flyer, but I don’t have ton of confidence. For 2021, I’ll give Kohei Arihara projections of 8-10/4.17/1.22/111 in 148 IP.

75 Comments
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Smitty
1 year ago

Nice! Not counting on his production from Japan but need his bags, hope he runs! Heard Sugano possibly to SF? I’d be stoked, that and if Nelson re-signed with the Twins and LaStella with the A’s. Starting to get interesting!

Smitty
Reply to  Smitty
1 year ago

*H. Kim

Smitty
Reply to  Smitty
1 year ago

*production from KBO not Japan

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
1 year ago

These salary dump trades might get some of the free agent signings moving. Musgrove sounds like the next guy that could go,
It’s been a boring winter.

Will
Will
1 year ago

Do you really think the Padres would part with Gore as part of a Darvish deal? That seems unlikely to me given that Darvish is a 34 year old with prior arm troubles who has 3 years left on his contract.

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Nightengale just tweeted he thinks the deal gets completed today. Will be interesting to see what the moving parts are. I’ll take Wil Myers on the Cubs if he can repeat his 2020 numbers!

Will
Will
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Look at the pathetic return the Cubs got for Darvish and Caratini. Total salary dump trade…

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
1 year ago

Padres signed Kim

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Could be as Padres also talking to Cubs about Contreras or Caratine

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

LOL Report said Nola would be super utility guy if they got Contreras. Padres want everybody. Prellers a wild man

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Yup, Padres out there tryin to mess up everybody’s fantasy team. I wonder if Myers winds up in Chicago

TualatinTwoStep
TualatinTwoStep
1 year ago

Yo Grey!

You think Mejia might see enough AB’s at DH to make him fantasy relevant? I’ve been keeping him for what seems like forever in my 2 C dynasty league, not sure if I should keep on keeping on with him.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
1 year ago

Darvish Padres rumor too…. That would likely take Gore to make the deal I would think.

LOLmets
LOLmets
1 year ago

snell 4.35 fip last season over 50 innings, 1.8 hr per 9 allowed, and health concerns. he only had .6 war also this past season even as “good” as he was. i think this is a great trade for the rays and i dont think id touch snell unless he fell to like 80 overall which i doubt happens. even then im not loving it. i think hes way overvalued.

LOLmets
LOLmets
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

could be wrong obv. i know hes got elite k numbers i think it’s more i dont trust his health, which i think will impact his effectiveness. i came here today to see what u thought and was surprised by the love u showed him.

Smitty
1 year ago

All of a sudden the Padres are the real deal with Snell in their rotation and poof! Knoche is the front-runner! Heard H. Kim may be headed to SD too, needs a home, as does N. Cruz, Sugano, and LaStella for my team. Let’s get those signings going as we all say GOODBYE 2020!

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Mlbtr has Pades as favourites for Kim 7mil a year for less than 6 years. Supposedly Kim would play 2nd and Croeneworth would move to the OF

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

They are saying Cronenworth to the OF. Things could get messy for PT

Malicious Phenoms
Malicious Phenoms
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Padres are still talking with Cubs about Darvish as well

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Malicious Phenoms
1 year ago

Yeah, Pads might not be done. There was even talk of Lindor with Tatis going to OF. They still want to move Meyers but that’ll be hard. If they do that it opens OF for Cronenworth

Sweatpants Nation
Sweatpants Nation
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

The impression is that because the Padres have a great system that they have an MLB roster built from within. But they don’t have a single player they drafted in their projected lineup. True, Tatis came early as did some pitchers but I think it shows they are willing to move prospects to get big leaguers. Wouldn’t surprise me if they move Morejon or Gore in a Lindor and Carrasco
trade especially if they could unload Myers in it as well.

Harley Earl
Harley Earl
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Machado, Myers, Hosmer, Darvish, etc. were not acquired for prospects. For that matter, Tatis wasn’t acquired for a prospect either.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
1 year ago

Looking ahead to 2022 Padres Rotation after Davies contract is up this year.

Snell
Clevinger
Lamet
Gore
Paddack is their 5th starter.

Wowza.

This years doesn’t suck either.

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

I agree. He should take Clevinger’s spot this year and Davies next year. I hope.

toolshed
toolshed
1 year ago

Glad to see SD going for it. The rays gave up snell but actually got something in return and shed payroll unlike Pittsburgh and their trade of Cole who still had 2 years left control on his “cheap” salary.

The pirates moved bell too. I would have commented on it but I didn’t expect you to post over the holiday. Another salary dump for pit. How much lower can they take their payroll? I liked your comment about the stimulus checks. I also read Polanco fractured his wrist in winter ball. Just when you thought the pit lineup couldn’t get any worse, it just did. I wonder what their attendance is going to look like if we ever get past covid. I can’t imagine fans paying for tickets. I wouldn’t even want to pay to see that team when they are on the road. I would pick another game when a team with major league talent is in town. What the pirates have done goes beyond just putting a crappy team together at the lowest cost, it is bad for baseball.

NUX
NUX
Reply to  toolshed
1 year ago

Not saying this makes it OK, but as someone living in the state of PA, the Pirates are just banking on minimal attendance if any fans in stands at all right now. It’s hard to feel like there will be a time when fans are going to games in 2021, at least from where we stand today. That’s such an easy and veiled way for them to put the worst product onto the field without having to worry about ticket sale backlash. I’m with you, it sucks for basabell for sure

VinWins
VinWins
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

They say he’ll be ready for Spring Training, but who knows.

Nos Zamours
Nos Zamours
1 year ago

Need your advice. Please rank these SP in a keeper league with QS instead of W :

– Snell
– Lamet
– Luzardo
– Maeda
– Woodruff

Thanks

NUX
NUX
Reply to  Nos Zamours
1 year ago

I’ll take a stab…

Snell, Maeada, Woodruff, Luzardo, Lamet

I put Lamet last, which was the easiest call for me to make bc I don’t trust that he is healthy. And the Padres making that Snell trade sure feels like they know they needed a #1 and #2 punch and can’t trust Lamets arm right now. I feel like once we get to spring training, there is at least a decent chance that he is done for a while. So I‘lol let him go nuts on someone else’s roster, I’m not in on him for 2021.

Also, ranking Somewhat depends on how many keepers… it could be really hard to be throwing Luzardo back out there, but if it’s a shallow keeper league, I wouldn’t keep him over Woodruff as things stand right now. And if this Keeper leans deeper, where Age comes into consideration, maybe could see dropping Maeada back behind Woodruff. But this ranking from me is coming more from 2021 perspective. And Maeada was great last year.

Nos Zamour
Nos Zamour
Reply to  Nos Zamours
1 year ago

It’s a 6×6 (OBP and Holds) 12 teams 7 keepers (forever) league. It tends to strongly favour SPs (don’t ask me why!).

My other potential keepers are:

Manny
Bo
Devers
Ketel

Nos Zamours
Nos Zamours
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Thanks Grey! (And Nux)

I would go with Ketel too.

NUX
NUX
1 year ago

Grey, Roster Resource still has Morejon penciled in at SP5, was glad to see that. Innings for starters is obvi gonna be weird this year, especially the young bucks, is bound to be throttled. Hoping the innings he can give us this year will be solid though. Him and Alzolay are going to be late round guys that I own tons of shares of. Until they get pushed up at least

I’m also going to jump on Tony Gonsolin often I think, at least when the price is right. Some of that has to do with not knowing what to expect from starters innings wise. This prob makes no sense, but I feel like that cancels out some of the weird Doyer stuff that we should typically expect with how they handle that staff. I saw Price may opt out? Or was thinking on it still at least

You’re def right to say that people were prob gonna be sleeping on Snell. His ADP in those NFBC BBS was 55ish recently, but I would often see him sliding into the middle 7th round. Not for long!

NUX
NUX
1 year ago

Got 3 spots left in a Fantrax Bestball if anyone is interested

40 rounds. $10. Top 6 win 2X, so $20 if you beat half the league

https://www.fantrax.com/newui/fantasy/joinLeague.go?leagueId=qwryt86fkixng9lw&isSubmit=y

Grey, join us!!

I’ll start an NFBC one tomorrow and will to try to fill that if you prefer instead

The Great Knoche
The Great Knoche
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Agree! Next week.

Galen
Galen
1 year ago

Not happy today, being an I owned Snell in a AL only league. This shit always happens to my team, my best players getting traded to the other league and poof they’re gone! Hope the Rays finish in last place.

Willie Mickey and the Duke
Willie Mickey and the Duke
1 year ago

Actually, I have really good information that Yakult is a House of Ill Repute near Kobe

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
1 year ago

Grey!!!!

Awesome fantasy write-up.

a. Snell at 17th pitcher off the board. Keep ’em comin’!

b. Kohei doesn’t look very appetizing except for his new role as an ‘Extreme Streamer’.

c. MLB quote of the day for December 28, 2020

1. Benny Agbayani, born December 28, 1971

‘I figured, maybe it would be a good thing for me to give back to the state of Hawaii and the kids here. The kids ask me, ‘Why are you doing this? Didn’t you make enough money?’ I tell them I had the opportunity to have such a great life. Maybe I can guide them in the right direction, explain their options after high school. It might not be professional baseball, but something.’

Benny Agbayani in The New York Daily News (Anthony McCarron, 04/10/2010, Former New York Mets OF Benny Agbayani coming up big once again’, Source)

2. Bill Lee, born December 28, 1946

‘You have two hemispheres in your brain – a left and a right side. The left side controls the right side of your body and the right side controls the left half. It’s a fact. Therefore, left-handed pitchers are the only people in their right minds.’

Bill Lee in Boston Red Sox and the Meaning of Life (Mark Rucker, MVP Books, 05/03/2009, Page 163)

3. Ray Knight, born December 28, 1952

‘Concentration is the ability to think about absolutely nothing when it is absolutely necessary.’

Ray Knight in Men at Work: The Craft of Baseball (George Will, Harper Paperbacks, 04/24/1991, Page 217)

4. Ken Poulsen, died December 28, 2017

‘Ken (Poulsen) displayed some power by slamming 11 home runs at Winston-Salem of the Carolina League in 1966, his debut season. This southpaw swinger split his playing time between third base and shortstop and it was his less than adequate glove work that probably prevented hime from achieving a successful Major League career.’

Fritsch Baseball Card (1979, Fritsch One-Year Winners, Ken Poulsen, Card #23)

Cheers,
Ante

Ante GALIC
Ante GALIC
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Grey!!

a. In my family’s history if you had a dream that someone died it was believed that you prolonged the life of that person by 10 years, not really scientifically proven etc. Just someone’s hunch or the interpretation of that person’s dream. So, Ray Knight should be sending you the check anon!

b. Was with Simba earlier today for his 3rd visit to the pet-vet. He’s all right but was producing histamines (aka he was allergic to something). The first vet we saw (in the same office) said it was an allergy to fish protein, so we went on to chicken protein. Then the second vet we met said chicken is the reason so now we’re onto rabbit. The third vet will say he should be fed chef boyardee and then I’ll eat my hat. No, we’re okay with the rabbit, he’s reduced his scratching to once a day, so I guess that’s it. No more chicken. Also, we only feed him the rabbit stuff and don’t give him any snacks for doing tricks so now that he’s figured that out he’s not doing anymore tricks. Smart dog, for sure.

Cheers,
Ante

Ante Galic
Ante Galic
Reply to  Grey
1 year ago

Grey!!

For sure!! His food costs 6$ per pound, though it’s packed in tiny pellets of goodness so that makes it a’ight! Like if you bought 5 pounds of meat X from the butcher at 6$ per pound and then chopped into 4 oz pieces (1 4 oz piece for 2 meals – morning and night) and froze it in freezer bags the rabbit pellets would be better. Anyway, he gets all the attention and am super jealous of a dog!!!

Cheers,
Ante