Long-time readers of mine here @Razzball have seen this figure a couple times this season. The original piece was from way back in February when I did an article connecting baseball analytics to Russell Wilson’s wife. If you didn’t read that one, or better yet, want a visual refresher on Russell Wilson’s wife, you can do so HERE.
In that article, I built on an existing article done here @Razzball by @everywhereblair that provided “a critique of ADP, the aggregate ranking systems that replicate and reinforce ADP, and the industry that has developed around the commodification of rankings.” Blair said, “ADP should be a guide only for when you can draft a player, not how valuable that player is.” Blair found that it’s extremely rare for a consensus SP1 to be drafted in the first round and return first round value.
More importantly to us in-season, he also found that “The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in IP, K-BB% and SIERA rates.” By combining this information with incoming news about player injuries, he concluded our rates of success on pitchers jumps dramatically. I won’t belabor the point here but I do highly recommend you reading Blair’s article (HERE). I also did a mid-season review of these analytics as well (HERE).
It’s not time yet for a “Year in Review” type article, since we still have another month of baseball remaining. What I think is useful today is to look at the 2nd half pitchers and see which are separating themselves from the pack and now leading our teams toward fantasy championships. Reviewing the pitching data since the All-Star Game, I’ll provide ranking in these 3 categories (IP, K-BB% and SIERA rates) as well as some ancillary metrics of use.
IP Data
Just like my original article, I start by looking at IP data. Below is a table of the top 20 (with ties) inning eaters over the 2nd half.
We expect many of the names on this list, led by the most probable inning-eater, Sandy Alcantara. The Reds scored two names here, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson, which speaks directly to their surge this Summer (along with Elly De La Cruz, of course). Other names that stand out to me include Tanner Bibee, Johan Oviedo, and Justin Steele.
Steele, in particular, has been a windfall for the Cubs this season, pitching to a sub-3.00 ERA and racking up 6 Ws since the Break (15 total). The Southpaw in not a power pitcher (average fastball just under 92 mph), but he limits HRs and induces a lot of ground balls. In fact, his GB% sits at a robust 48% while his LD% is only 21%. He’s become the Ace of the Cubs staff and a name that will certainly shoot up draft boards next spring.
SIERA
Next is SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA). Like the FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and xFIP, SIERA attempts to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher. Unlike the FIP, SIERA attempts to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. As FanGraphs puts it, “SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.” Here’s how pitchers are rated in this category:
Here are the 2nd half leaders in SIERA:
The aforementioned Justin Steele makes an appearance on this list as well. Joining him are a few other names that you may not have predicted, including Christopher Sanchez, Kenta Maeda, Yusei Kikuchi, Brady Singer, and Seth Lugo.
Another Southpaw, Christopher Sanchez, has been a surprise asset for the surging Phillies. Over the past 3 season, Sanchez has worn a path between the big club and Lehigh Valley, logging 44 and 36 games pitched, respectively. Prior to 2023, he only had a handful of starts in The Show but has come on this season to start 14 games and put up a respectable 3.48/1.04 ERA/WHIP. His analytics won’t blow you away, 92 mph fastball, 8.28 K/9, and 10.6 Swing K% but he keeps the ball in the park with a very high GB% (57.5%) and low LD% (15.1%). It appears he put all those road miles to good use and learned how to be an effective big-league SP. If you’re in need of innings and a few Ws, check your waiver wire.
K-BB%
And for our final piece of the puzzle, here are the 2nd half K-BB% numbers:
Much like the SIERA data, the K-BB% data is dominated by Freddy Peralta, Spencer Strider, George Kirby, and Gerrit Cole.
After a long layoff, Kenta Maeda returned to the Twins rotation just prior to the Break. Since the Break, he’s racked up 56 Ks over 45.2 IP and lowering his ERA almost a full point. A look at his advanced pitching stats shows he’s pitching very much in line with his career numbers, indicating we should consider him a decent mid-rotation arm. He’s always been prone to blowups, much like the 6 ER, 3 K performance this week versus the Guardians, but more than not he’s an effective SP that produces good K numbers and won’t obliterate your ERA/WHIP. Just be a little selective in picking your spots.
Before we get to the cumulative rankings of these three analytics though, here are a couple other ones that illustrate SPs we want to target.
Soft% – Hard%
For the first one, I wanted to evaluate which SPs are inducing the weakest contact. Don’t go looking for this analytic, you probably won’t find it, although it’s logical and easy to calculate. I simply subtracted the Soft% and Hard% rates for each SP based on their ability to induce soft contact the most. Here is that list:
Other than Kodai Senga, all other pitchers are found in at least one of the other 3 tables. In fact, many of the likely CY Young Award candidates from each league are listed here as well. Makes sense, right? Induce weak contact = Success!
SwStr%
The last bonus analytic I’ll cover is SwStr% (Swinging Strike %). In addition, I added their respective K/9% and relative rank amongst the 72 SPs evaluated here. Again, as you probably expect, the names on this list look very familiar by this point.
IP – SIERA – K-BB%
Now that we’ve thoroughly separated the wheat from the chaff, let’s wrap up our search to prove the statement, “The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in IP, K-BB% and SIERA rates.” Here is the table that sums the rankings of each of these three variables.
To the surprise of nobody, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Spencer Strider are among the top 5 in our “best pitchers” list. Some of the other names may surprise you though, including Kyle Gibson and Zach Eflin coming in at the end of the top 20. Paraphrasing @everywhereblair, the best pitchers tend to score well in these three categories. To those who’ve been able to roster a few of these names, enjoy the spoils, and good luck with your Title hopes.
Once again, thanks for traveling with me on this ride through the wonderful world of baseball analytics. As I always say, keep sifting through the numbers. That’s where you find the gems!
Follow me on Twitter/X at: @Derek_Favret
Until next time, my friends!